The 2017 Postseason has definitely started with a bang, both Wild Card games were classics, and the starts to the divisional series has been just as good. With plenty of run being scored over bettors have had a pretty enjoyable time of it so far. There are just the two games to look at here, and with two teams season potentially ending it looks to be a huge day of action. Hopefully we can keep our good run going.
American League Division Series
Boston Red Sox vs Houston Astros (5.40am AEST)
Red Sox ($2.15) – Fister (5-9, 4.88 ERA)
Astros ($1.73) – Peacock (13-2, 3.00 ERA)
Astros lead series 2-0
Boston’s ever promising season is hanging by a thread, at least the return home to try and avoid a series sweep and another disappointing October campaign. The bats have been ice cold with only 4 runs in the opening games of the series, something has to change. Their pitching has not been sharp either, and when Chris Sale is getting hit you know maybe things just are not going your way. For the Astros they will look to get out to an early start where the pressure will really mount on Boston. They have nothing to lose and expect them to be swinging for the fences as they usually do.
Veteran Doug Fister will get the key start for the Sox, and expect him to have a short leash in this must win game. He was 3-7 with a 4.94 ERA at Fenway, a .265 BAA. Surprisingly only giving up 5 home runs over 54 innings though. Just last week lasted 5 innings against the Astros giving up 3 runs on 5 hits. They will be happy with a similar performance this time out.
Brad Peacock has zero losses against his name on the road in 2017, where he went 8-0 with a stellar 2.88 ERA. Finally healthy he has had the best season of his career. He gave up 2 runs over 5 innings last week against the Sox to earn the win in a 12-2 thumping.
Going 17-3 over their last 20 games the Astros are in fine form and certainly look like taking this series. They are scoring a lot of runs of late and the pitching has gone back to its early season form. I fully expect the Red Sox to make a game of this though, they have to. Aggressive base running may be the key to them staying in this series so getting on base will be crucial. If they apply the pressure they should plate a few runs, as should the Astros with a shaky Doug Fister starting. Taking the Astros to wrap up the series but there will be fight in the Sox yet, playing the over on a high total.
Suggested Bet – Total Runs o9.5 at $1.83 (1u)
New York Yankees vs Cleveland Indians (10.40am AEST)
Yankees ($2.00) – Tanaka (13-12, 4.74 ERA)
Indians ($1.84) – Carrasco (18-6, 3.29 ERA)
Indians lead series 2-0
Another team heading home trying to save their season is the New York Yankees. After a thrilling win in the Wild Card game over the Twins, they will be hoping the heartbreaking loss in Game 2 won’t take its toll. Giving up a 5 run lead in the playoffs can be soul crushing.
Masahiro Tanaka gets the start for the Yankees, and many thought he would be in line for the Wild Card start. He hasn’t been his best this season and looks to be on the downward spiral with consistent injury issues. He can produce the odd outstanding performance though and they will need it here. 9-5 with a 3.58 ERA at home. Giving up only 16 Walks in 95 innings. Only the 15 home runs as well, which is nice considering the park he plays in. Over the past few years he has had issues with the Indians where he owns a 4.63 ERA over 4 starts with a .317 BAA.
For the Tribe it will be Cookie Carrasco. One of the best pitchers in the AL, I must own up and admit to being his bad luck charm, not once this season when I backed him did the Indians win. I digress. He did however have a great road record, going 11-2 with a 2.65 ERA. His only showing against the Yankees though lasting 5 innings giving up 5 runs on 6 hits. His post All Star break numbers show he is peaking at the right time though.
So how do I play this ? Safest bet this post season is the overs. Not sure it goes over though. Has the making of a close game. Would steer clear of this game if I had too. However I try and make a play on every post season game some way or the other. Have to make the value pick and take the Yankees to avoid the sweep. Plus I can’t win when Carrasco pitches.
Suggested Bet – Yankees at $2.00 (0.5u)
All Prices Quoted via Crown Bet at time of writing.
Hopefully your thoughts on the games match up with mine. As always these are only a select few games I was interested in, feel free to share your opinions on any games at @MLB_TheProfits on Twitter. Happy Punting.