MLB All Star Break Preview & Bets

The All Star break is finally upon us, and the players get the rest they deserve. Apart from those competing in the All Star game and Home Run Derby. This year’s instalment of the All Star game comes from Target  Field in Minneapolis. Home of the Minnesota Twins. This year sees a fair amount of first timers. All Star games are generally just for fun and a showcase for the best talents a game has. However the MLB All Star game has at least some meaning, as the winning Division gains Home field advantage for the World Series. It’s taken a bit more serious than the other US sports All Star games.

Home Run Derby

Tuesday 15th  (Live ESPN 10am AEST) 

The Home Run Derby takes on a new format this year, which will be interesting to see. 4 rounds in total. 5 Players representing each division.

Round 1

  • Each participant will receive seven outs.
  • The player from each league who hits the most home runs (AL 1, NL 1) will automatically advance to Round 3.
  • The next two participants with the most home runs from each league (AL 2, AL 3/NL 2, NL 3) advance to Round 2.

Round 2

  • The two participants advancing from Round 1 for each league will compete against each other
  • The winners from the Round 2 matchups (one from each league) will advance to Round 3.

Round 3 (Semi-finals)

  • The top seed from each league (AL 1, NL 1) will face the winner from his league’s Round 2 matchup.
  • The participant from each league with the most home runs will advance to the finals.

Round 4 (Finals)

  • The semi-final winners (one player from each league) will compete for the crown of Home Run Derby champion.

Tiebreaker(s)

  • A Swing Off !!!! As in who can hit the most Home Runs in 3 outs.

Field

One of the more even hitting parks in Baseball, with little bias to Left or Right handed hitters. With 70 Home Runs in 42 games this season, it average 1.67 HR’s a game and is below average.

Left Field  339-377ft.   Center Field 404ft.   Right Field 367-328ft

Oddly enough more Home Runs have gone over the slightly deeper Left Field fence, however this is likely due to the nature of more Right Handed pull hitters being present. Generally a pull hitter is getting more power behind the bat hence longer range.

National League

Troy Tulowitzki  (Colorado Rockies)

Bats Right

2014 HR – 21

Avg Distance – 401ft

With the majority of his Home Runs coming from his home field, where the air is thin, Coors Field don’t be fooled he can hit them everywhere. Has put up great number this season and deserves to be the captain of the NL team.

Best odds: $8.50 (Sportsbet) 

Yasiel Puig  (LA Dodgers)

Bats Right

2014 HR – 12

Avg Distance – 417ft

The man that most baseball viewers want to see in the competition. Either love him or hate him, he sure does put on a show. Will we see a bat flip ?

Best odds: $7.00 (TAB & Sportsbet)

Giancarlo Stanton  (Miami Marlins)

Bats Right

2014 HR – 21

Avg Distance – 423ft

This guy is a beast and his power is insane. The highest average distance for a Home Run in the MLB. Looking forward to seeing him compete and word is that the show he puts on in batting practice is a sight to behold. Bookies pick to win it.

Best odds: $4.00 (TAB)

Todd Frazier  (Cincinnati Reds)

Bats Right

2014 HR – 19

Avg Distance – 401ft

Definitely deserves a spot, and has always gone about his business with little fanfare. With the Great American Ballpark (Smallpark) being his home ground he has belted a fair few this year, though those stats are a little of due to where he has been hitting them. Most home runs coming in straight left field he is looking up a long alley to win this.

Best odds: $15.00 (Sportsbet)

Justin Morneau  (Colorado Rockies)

Bats Left

2014 HR – 13

Avg Distance – 402ft

Former Twin and the only left hander in the derby. He knows the ball parks sweet spots and what a great story if he was to win it here. His 3rd appearance in the Derby and he won it back in 2008.

Best odds: $17.00 (Sportsbet)

American League

Jose Bautista  (Toronto Blue Jays)

Bats Right

2014 HR – 17

Avg Distance – 404ft

Only 1 HR on the season going opposite field it’s safe to say he is swinging for that left field wall. Has the experience in this type of competition competing twice and finishing runner up in 2012.

Best odds: $7.00 (Sportsbet)

Yoenis Cespedes  (Oakland A’s)

Bats Right

2014 HR – 14

Avg Distance – 383ft

With no one winning back to back competitions he gets the chance to be the first. Very impressive last year, if he repeats that performance he will probably win. Can he though. Have my doubts. Bookies seem to think he can.

Best odds: $6.00 (TAB)

Brian Dozier  (Minnesota Twins)

Bats Right

2014 HR – 18

Avg Distance – 379ft

Always good to have a home town man for the fans to cheer on. Knows where to put the ball in the bleachers in Target Field.  The price available is generous.

Best odds: $17.00 (Sportsbet) 

Adam Jones  (Baltimore Orioles)

Bats Right

2014 HR – 16

Avg Distance – 399ft

Not the Baltimore player people were expecting when the line up got announced. Aside from that he does have his share of Home Runs and he spreads them all over the place, foul pole to foul pole.

Best odds: $14.00 (Sportsbet)

Josh Donaldson  (Oakland A’s)

Bats Right

2014 HR – 20

Avg Distance – 394ft

Ability to hit them all around the park he has been outstanding this season and deserves that All Star start. Can he out hit his team mate Cespedes ?  These Oakland boys sure do hit them.

Best odds: $11.00 (TAB & Sportsbet)

Sportsbet have some other nice markets up, head to head first round match ups, winning league and winning division player.

Stanton ($1.74) vs Cespedes ($2.08)

Puig ($2.00) vs Bautista ($1.81)

Tulowitzki ($1.74) vs Donaldson ($2.08)

Think Bautista and Donaldson are both a decent price there.

Does not seem like any bookies are going to be having live in play betting available which is a shame. I may well be wrong and I hope one of them does as they have in the past. That would allow for some excellent strategies to find some profits.

At the end of the day any of these guys can win this but here is my plays .

Best Bet – Stanton $4 (2U)

Next Best – Bautista to beat Puig H2H total in 1st rd $1.81

Roughies -Morneau $17 (0.5U) Dozier $17 (0.5U)

Also will play Bautista $7 as a saver.

Think the price of $17 is too good in a competition like this with both these guys knowing the park very well and both with huge power. Considering anyone can win it, as its round by round not total. $17. Yes please.

All Star Game

Wednesday 16th 

National League vs American League  (Live ESPN 10am AEST)

NL – $1.92

AL– $1.92

Over/Under – Over 8.0 ($2.11) Under 8.0 ($1.76)

Prediction

Take your pick. Last year the AL won it 3-0 and the money was with the NL. The previous season the NL won it and the money was with the AL. You never know what will happen, who will pitch against who with all the player changes that happen inning after inning. Hoping for some runs so that’s my play if at all.

Suggested Bet

Over 8.0 at $2.11 seems the only value to be honest.

All Prices Quoted via Sportsbet at time of writing unless stated otherwise.

Hope you all have a good week with your MLB betting, hopefully your thoughts on the games match up with mine. As always these are only a select few games I was interested in, feel free to share your opinions on any games at @MLB_TheProfits on Twitter. Happy Punting.

Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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Author

mm

T-Ball

Hitting balls all over the place

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