MLB Playoffs 19 October 2016

Welcome back to a preview of the MLB Postseason action. We have two cracking games in store here, Can the Indians wrap up a ALCS sweep over the Blue Jays? Can the Dodgers win a postseason game in which Clayton Kershaw does not pitch?. Let’s try and find some value on what has been a decent postseason of plays, taking caution as more invested in futures though always something to be made. What a great day of baseball ahead.

Wednesday 19th

Plays
Indians $TBC
O6.5 Runs Dodgers/Cubs $1.81 (1u)

Toronto Blue Jays vs Cleveland Indians (7.00am AEST Live on ESPN)  

Blue Jays ($TBC) –  Sanchez (15-2, 3.00 ERA)
Indians ($TBC)  – Kluber (18-9, 3.14 ERA)

Indians lead series 3-0

Prediction

Toronto come down to a must win game, and after a crushing ALDS win over the Rangers, they are probably wondering how they ended up in this position. Their bats have been shutdown completely scoring only 3 runs over the series so far. Wether it be an Indians starter or that crazy bullpen they just can’t seem to get anything going. A few iffy calls may have gone against them, although thats not the reason they are down 3-0 and looking squarely at the exit door.

They will put their faith, at least early on, with Aaron Sanchez. His last post season start was not entirely that good, giving up 6 runs over 5 innings. It was one of his worse starts at home all season. They got the win though as the Jays bats bailed him out. 15-2 record over 30 starts with a solid 3.00 ERA over the regular season. His work at the Rogers Centre had been good, 6-1 with a 3.74 ERA giving up only 8 HR’s in 13 starts.

Corey Kluber, gets the start for the Indians. He has been great so far in the postseason, giving up zero runs and 9 hits over 13 innings. Pitching through 6 innings is the key for Kluber here, the deeper he can get the better chance the Indians have of closing out this series. With the freakish good Andrew Miller regularly being used over 2 innings so far, and with Shaw and Allen pitching the way they are, hitting the 7th with a lead, likely will be enough. A taxed bullpen after game 3 may be an issue hence the need for Kluber to pitch well into the game.

The stadium will be electric and this could be the last game of a solid core of these Jays players as contracts come to an end. They didn’t score so little runs over a span of games as they are doing here. However with the way the Indians are going and the likely price available once markets open up., I’d be leaning on the Indians as the pure value play. They wrap this up and sweep the Jays, who just cannot get it going. Cleveland needs to take advantage of the Kluber start. With no markets available updates on twitter will be made ASAP regarding play.

Suggested Bet
Indians to win.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Chicago Cubs (11.00am AEST Live on ESPN) 

Dodgers ($2.03) –  Hill (12-5, 2.12 ERA)
Cubs ($1.81)  – Arietta (18-8, 3.10 ERA)

Series tied 1-1

Prediction

If the Dodgers want to progress past the NLCS, no doubt about it they have to win without Kershaw pitching in some form or another. How do you do that, you need to score runs, not going to be easy here. Rich Hill is a fine pitcher but he is likely on a short leash as he has been all postseason. They need him to get through 4 or so innings with no signs of trouble. Make no mistake Dave Roberts the Dodgers manager will yank him if needed. Chicago on the other hand have once again a freak on the mound. Jake Arietta. With a stacked batting line up the World Series does look destined for them. Hold up though, this is postseason baseball and it very regularly goes to script. I get the feeling this one may not.

Rich Hill will need to take advantage of the Cubs struggles against lefties, and keeping runners off base will be crucial. Avoiding walks will be key and that’s something he has been good at all season under 2 per start. In his 3 starts at Dodger Stadium he went 2-1 with a 0.53 ERA, better yet a 0.197 BAA and 3 BB over 17 innings.

Another lefthander, up against another team who struggle to hit them. Jake Arietta has been somewhat overshadowed this season by other team mates. Perhaps it’s as we just expect so much of him. His road work was good as you expect 18-7 with 2.87 ERA. The Dodgers line up hitting a career .202 against him.

This one for me looks a real coin flip and the unders on the total would likely stand out for many. Unfortunately the Dodgers and the sometime fragile Cubs pen gives me less confidence in that option. On a pure value standpoint I think Id side with the Dodgers and the o6.5 Total Runs ($1.81), however only small. 5 of the Dodgers 7 post season games have gone over and 3 of the 6 for the Cubbies. Dodgers to win if you made me.

Suggested Bet
Over 6.5 Total Runs at $1.81 (1u)

All Prices Quoted via Crown Bet at time of writing.

Post Season Record 8-4 +2.77u

Hopefully your thoughts on the games match up with mine. As always these are only a select few games I was interested in, feel free to share your opinions on any games at @MLB_TheProfits on Twitter. Happy Punting.

Author

mm

T-Ball

Hitting balls all over the place

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