Welcome back to a preview of some MLB action to close out the weekend. It’s best to just look forward and not dwell about the last few days, where I took a decent hit to the overall seasons results. However it’s still been a good season, and with the All Star game now only days away it would be nice to head to the break with a bit of confidence. There are a few teams around the league that need a rest as we are seeing some tired arms and some big scores being put up each day as a result. The Mets took a big blow with the news that Matt Harvey is out for the season even though he has not been his best. Plus with a few other injuries to key players, the NL East is really starting to look like Nats to ride home, even though I have my doubts about how good they really are. Also in the NL the Cubs have cooled off and are hobbling into the break while the Pirates are surging and a break is probably coming at the wrong time. Out West the Rangers are limping to the break while similar to the Pirates, the Astros are flying and closing the gap atop that division. Let’s get a part of that and hopefully find some winners.
Sunday 10th
Plays
Best Bet – Red Sox -1.5 $2.16 (1u)
Indians $1.60 (1u)
Royals $1.81 (0.5u)
Marlins/Astros $2.28 (0.5u)
Boston Red Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays (6.05am AEST)
Red Sox ($1.59) – Porcello (10-2, 3.82 ERA)
Rays ($2.42) -Moore (5-5, 4.54 ERA)
Prediction
Red Sox. After a hot month of May, Boston managed to keep their head above water playing .500 baseball throughout June. There still seems to be some pitching issues, but it’s bats that keep on hitting. With Ortiz having an amazing swan song season. I was a fan of Rick Porcello in his Tigers days and I still have not changed opinion, even though he has not hit the heights he looked like he would. He has pitched well though with his home splits a touch better going 7-0 with a 3.60 ERA at Fenway. A 10-2 win record is nothing to sneeze at either. Also picking up 2 wins in 2 starts against the Rays in 2016. Tampa have been slumping, it wasn’t long ago some where calling them the sleep team of the AL, not any more with only 3 wins in their last 22 games. The pitching that we thought they had has vanished. When Chris Archer has a 4-12 record you know things are not going well. Matt Moore gets the ball in this one and since his injury issues years ago he has never bounced back to the level expected. It’s a shame he was looking good as was this Rays staff. He did pitch a great game against the Sox at the end of June though, one of those 3 wins in the last 22 games. Can he do that again? I’m not sure. Boston hang enough runs on the Rays to take this.
Suggested Bet
Red Sox -1.5 $2.16
Cleveland Indians vs New York Yankees (6.10am AEST)
Indians ($1.60) – Salazar (10-3, 2.36 ERA)
Yankees ($2.40) – Sabathia (5-6, 3.48 ERA)
Prediction
Indians. We got burnt on the Indians on Friday but bounced back on Saturday. Even in a loss they had every chance to win the game and I expect it to be similar here. Even if they go down it won’t be without fight. Danny Salazar has been incredible this season a 2.05 home ERA and .195 BAA, he has got the win in 6 of his last 7 starts giving up only 12 runs. 1st in the AL in ERA, a huge step up from a guy who always had potential. Cleveland have continued to score runs and if they can plate 4 or so it should be enough to get Salazar win 11 before the break. I said it last time out and will say it again, the Yankees are just not a good team at the moment. Sabathia will give them some chance to win as his road stuff has been good in 2016, 4-3 with a 2.81 ERA. We know the Yankees have the bullpen to wrap games up as well, however I just feel Cleveland continue their nice form and especially Salazar.
Suggested Bet
Indians $1.60
Other Games
Miami Marlins vs Cincinnati Reds
The Reds throw the tattooed run gifting Jake Lamb on the mound, with the Marlins having young up and comer Adam Conley opposing. Signs of a bright future for Conley even though he has been hot or cold, this kid seems to have the stuff that makes a decent big league pitcher. With Stanton struggling the Marlins are still amongst the NL Wild Card race and are the real deal. They need to win series against lesser teams, especially at home and a win here will wrap that up. I like them as a multi addition at $1.51
Houston Astros vs Oakland A’s
Lance McCullers has been solid at home and after a walk off win in the 2nd game of the series the Stros will want to wrap it and keep their hot form rolling into the break. With them hitting better and their starters pitching much better, bullpen still an issue though, I think they can get enough on A’s and Graveman, who hold a 5.72 road ERA. Astros at $1.51
Kansas City Royals vs Seattle Mariners
Even in a slump the Royals are still holding their own, with a 28-12 home record the Kauffman Stadium faithful will still be believing they can make a push for a 3rd consecutive post season. They are a pretty consistent team, but starting pitching once again is a concern. Against the Mariners and Wade Miley who has got the loss in his last 3 starts, the price on offer for them at home is worth having a little something on. Royals to win $1.81
All Prices Quoted via Crown Bet at time of writing.
Season Stats
Plays 94-94
Predicted Results 478-361
Profit +12.42u
Hopefully your thoughts on the games match up with mine. As always these are only a select few games I was interested in, feel free to share your opinions on any games at @MLB_TheProfits on Twitter. Happy Punting.
