MLB Thursday 18 August 2016

Welcome back to a preview of some MLB games. It’s been a refreshing few days off from trying to  find winners, and just watching the games has been very enjoyable. Hopefully it has reset the luck and given us a new perspective as it’s easy to get down and push plays when things are not going your way. Stepping back and hitting the reset button is never a bad thing. In those few days a lot has happened, the Giants have handed the NL West lead over to the Dodgers, the Jays have remained hot, Mookie Betts has stamped himself as the likely AL MVP, Giancarlo Stanton’s season ending injury has all but sealed the Marlins fate. The Pirates and Cardinals are somehow alive in the wild card race. The Indians have managed to hold off the Tigers for the time been, the Mariners have overtaken the falling Astros etc etc. This season is far from over, many twists and turns still to come, although it does look like the Cubs and Nats are winning their respective divisions. Enough about futures, I’m keen to get back into the action so let’s try and find the winners.

Thursday 18th

Best Bet –  Jays $1.65 (2u)
Next Best –  Dbacks TT o4.5 $1.71 (1u)
Rangers -1.5 $1.96 (0.5u)
Red Sox/Orioles o8.5 $1.82 (1u)

New York Yankees vs Toronto Blue Jays (3.05am AEST)
Yankees ($2.30) –  Sabathia  (7-9, 4.20 ERA)
Jays ($1.65)  – Happ (16-3, 2.96 ERA)


Jays. JA Happ has been solid for us all season I cannot jump off now.  He became the 1st 16 game winner of the season in his last start. He has won his last 10. A post All Star break .156 BAA and 1.47 ERA, his name should be in the Cy Young conversation. He has beaten the Yanks twice already this season giving up only 3 runs over 19 innings. New York seem to be hanging on to the hopes of a wild card spot, even after dealing key players. The biggest stat for me is that Yankees are 4-6 when CC gives up a home run and 7-4 when he doesn’t. Guess who hits plenty of them. The Toronto Blue Jays, and they will look to stay atop the AL East with a series win over New York.  Stick with Happ.

Suggested Bet
Jays $1.65

Texas Rangers vs Oakland A’s (10.05am AEST)
Rangers ($1.45) –  Darvish  (3-3, 2.77 ERA)
A’s ($2.82)  – Manaea (4-7, 4.57 ERA)


Rangers. I know a follower of mine who won’t like hearing this, but the A’s are just not a good team. Some mind boggling decisions of late, makes you wonder if they are even trying to win. They can be a frustrating team to bet against or with, however they are near the bottom in all offensive and defensive categories and are statistically the worst base running team in the MLB. 24yr old Sean Manaea gets the start here and its clear he is still adjusting to life in the majors although he has progressively lowered his ERA since his debut in April. A .275 BAA versus Texas over 3 starts, and  19 hits over 17 inning. The A’s have beaten Darvish this season, however he is 3-0 over 5 home starts in 2016, .202 BAA and 2.86 ERA. Texas got out of jail yesterday, but I’m thinking they should wrap this one up a bit easier. I’m quite happy at the run line price available.

Suggested Bet
Rangers -1.5 $1.96

Arizon Diamondbacks vs New York Mets (11.40am AEST)
Dbacks ($1.80) –  Godley  (3-2, 5.24 ERA)
Mets ($2.82)  – Niese (8-6, 5.20 ERA)


Dbacks. Jonathon Niese makes his first start as a Met this season after returning from his time in Pittsburgh. His numbers are just not good in 2016, for players who qualify he ranks near the bottom of every pitching category. He hands out Home Runs like candy and at Chase Field, I think we will see a couple of lollies thrown about. He gave up 10 hits and 4 runs over 5 innings in his start in Arizona back in April. With 14 fly balls against 26 batter faced. Chase Field does like the long ball. The Dbacks will counter with Zack Godley who gets a start after some time in the the bullpen. He has a 4.98 ERA over 20 innings at home though his BAA sits at a reasonable .238. I think the Dbacks win this, but i’d be more than happy to play the Team Total, thinking Niese is likely to give up a few hits early. This could be a high scoring game so the head to head seems a little bit more risky.

Suggested Bet
Diamondbacks Team Total o4.5 $1.71

Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox

Dylan Bundy makes a spot start for the O’s against a hot hitting Red Sox, and more importantly Mookie Betts. David Price gets the nod for the Sox, and his stuff has been off the mark in 2016. A 5.54 ERA against Baltimore over 2 starts. I like there to be some runs here. Both teams can help this out so it makes it even better. Over 8.5 at $1..82 looks good enough for me.

All Prices Quoted via Crown Bet at time of writing.

Hopefully your thoughts on the games match up with mine. As always these are only a select few games I was interested in, feel free to share your opinions on any games at @MLB_TheProfits on Twitter. Happy Punting.



Hitting balls all over the place

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