Welcome back to a preview of couple of selected MLB games I’m keen to bet into. It’s been a great week and a bit with over 7 units of profit and getting us out of the red into the black. There seems to be some nice series coming up in terms of betting and I’ve taken a quick look at a few of the games below. Let’s keep the streak going, as it’s not just the plays that have been working out, the projected winners has been on the increase and that usually is a good sign. On to it.
Best Bet – o8.5 Runs Marlins/Astros $1.78 (2u)
Next Best – u7.5 Runs Indians/Rays $1.94 (1u)
Double – Jays/Dbacks $3.21 (0.5u)
Cleveland Indians vs Tampa Bay Rays (8.10am AEST)
Indians ($1.63) – Carrasco (4-2, 1.86 ERA)
Rays ($2.32) – Archer (3-1, 3.04 ERA)
Two pitchers in fine form, Chris archer faces off against Carlos Carrasco. AArcher was great last time out giving up 5 hits over 8 scoreless innings bouncing back from a couple of bad starts. A .216 BAA on the road. Carrasco surprisingly has been better on the road, though his home work is solid nonetheless a 2.49 ERA and .189 BAA. Two teams that can score runs on any given day but this pitching matchup looks to make the game tight. Every Carrasco start has had 7 or less runs scored so I have to look at the unders on the total as the play. The run line at 7.5 I would of liked the extra run to push to an 8.5 line. However i’ll play the value at the $1.94
Suggested Bet – Under 7.5 Runs $1.94
Miami Marlins vs Houston Astros (9.00am AEST)
Marlins ($2.00) – Straily (1-3, 4.03 ERA)
Astros ($1.85) – Musgrove (2-3, 5.02 ERA)
After an impressive series win over the Yankees, the Astros head to Miami to take on the reeling Marlins. Dan Straily gets the start for the Marlins and he is stuff is usually solid but he hasn’t faced too many strong line ups in 2017 the only starts the Marlins have won have come against the sub .500 Braves, Mets and Padres. The Astros will test him as the bats are in fine form, especially George Springer who ended the New York series with an 11 games hitting streak and 2 dingers. Joe Musgrove will head to the mound for the Stros. He doesn’t need to be an ace for this team but his starts need to be better. Giving up runs in every start a 5.56 Road ERA and .286 BAA. The Marlins, while slumping do have power in the line up, Stanton has been struggling but looks to be warming up and Marcel Ozuna has been on fire, already 11 home runs. There surely will be a few home runs in this game and both teams have it in them on any given day. Hoping today is the day. I think the Astros are great value at that price but I’m taking the over 8.5 on the run total. Cheer on both teams that way.
Suggested Bet – Over 8.5 Runs $1.78
Toronto Blue Jays vs Atlanta Braves (9.05am AEST)
Blue Jays ($1.73) – Bolsinger (0-1, 3.18 ERA)
Braves ($2.15) – Colon (1-4, 7.22 ERA)
Everyone’s favourite big guy pitcher Bartolo Colon does look to be winding down his career, the 43 year old has lost the velocity and command and his numbers are showing that. A career low 7.22 ERA after this many starts is signally his days are finally numbered. Hey, its nice for him to help the Braves out in these rebuilding years. An 8.13 road ERA he faces of against a warming up Jays line up. Toronto, on a 5 game winning streak and winners of 7 of their last 8 will look to get to Colon early. Mike Bolsinger makes his 2nd start of the season, so it’s hard to read too much into him at this stage. His career numbers are ok, coming off a poor injury riddled season in 2016. The price for the Jays to win is good enough for me, considering Colon’s form and the Jays form.
Suggested Bet – Jays to win $1.73
New York Mets vs Arizona Diamondback
You never know what you get with the Mets, a highly frustrating team with a bullpen at the moment who can’t hold a lead. They head to Arizona where the Dbacks have been able to score runs at a frantic pace. I mean its Chase field so I’m sure the Mets will get their share. 15-8 at home with some in form hitters I’m keen on the price on Arizona.
All Prices Quoted via Crown Bet at time of writing.
Hopefully your thoughts on the games match up with mine. As always these are only a select few games I was interested in, feel free to share your opinions on any games at @MLB_TheProfits on Twitter. Happy Punting.