Welcome back to a preview of couple of selected MLB games. Well the winning streak finally got snapped as Monday ended up as the first day without profit in over a week. Can’t win every day but the signs are looking good and hopefully we can hop back on the winning train again. It was a pretty good weekend of MLB action as the Astros got swept by the Indians at home in what could be an ALDS matchup. Mike Trout remains hot, as do the Colorado Rockies who now lead the NL West. That division in particular looks very hard to call. I feel like there is value in the Diamondbacks or Rockies taking that out.
Best Bet – Over 8.5 Runs Rox/Phillies $1.93 (1u)
Double – Yankees/Diamondbacks $2.35 (1u)
Other Bets – Astros $1.80 (0.5u)
Other Bets – Pirates $1.80 (0.5u)
Philadelphia Phillies vs Colorado Rockies (9.05am AEST)
Phillies ($1.90) – Eickhoff (0-4, 4.53 ERA)
Rockies ($1.93) – Hoffman (1-0, 5.40 ERA)
Two teams going in different directions, the Rockies have finally matured as a team and thos prospects are finally turning into legit players. The Phillies have some nice pieces but are a few years off yet. Colorado know how to put up runs with Arenado and Reynolds in fine form plus the addition of Greg Holland has bolstered that bullpen. Jerad Eickhoff gets the start for the Phillies where he has a 4.02 Home ERA mind you a nice .217 BAA. His stuff at home has been ok, however yet to get a win he has been struggling to get out of the 5th inning at a decent pitch count. It’s an intimidating Rox lineup so it could be an issue again. Jeff Hoffman gets another spot start, and to be fair he isn’t exactly a top notch starter. It’s not really the pitching I’m looking at in this matchup as both are rather weak and not where I would have faith in my money. The Phillies are yet to have a shutout and considering Citizens Bank is pretty friendly on hitters, especially power hitting with pretty short porches down the lines this series is likely to have some runs due mainly to the Rockies. All games against the Reds in a similar ballpark went 10 runs or higher so I’m pretty happy to take the overs on the 8.5 Totals
Suggested Bet – Over 8.5 Runs $1.93
Houston Astros vs Detroit Tigers (10.10am AEST)
Astros ($1.80) – Peacock (2-0, 1.10 ERA)
Tigers ($2.05) – Fulmer (5-1, 2.72 ERA)
After getting sewpt by the Indians the Astros need to bounce back as they welcome the Tigers to Minute Maid Park. Making a spot start for the Astros will be Brad Peacock. He started only 5 games in 2016 yet his stuff in those games particularly at home was solid enough. A 1.93 ERA and .111 BAA at home in 2016. Heading the mound for the Tigers will be 2016 AL Rookie of the year Michael Fulmer. He has been just as good in 2017 with a nice 2.25 road ERA and .200 BAA. Not much else to say about the pitching matchup as it looks to be really tight. I just like the Astros to avoid losing 4 games in a row. Their bats looked quiet against the Indians and I don’t think that can continue much longer especially at home. I’d likely take the Astros at home at this price any time this season so I have to here.
Suggested Bet – Astros to win $1.80
Atlanta Braves vs Pittsburgh Pirates (9.35am AEST)
Braves ($2.05) – Foltynewicz (2-4, 4.10 ERA)
Pirates ($1.80) – Cole (2-4, 2.84 ERA)
There is a reason you shouldn’t read too much into the win-loss record of pitchers. Gerrit Cole is a prime example. His stuff in 2017 has been lights out, aside from his opening start of the season. Granted his road numbers a skewed due to the first start but he has bounced back to record solid starts since. Foltynewicz on the other hand has been all over the place all season, only having decent starts in his last 2 outings. He faced the Pirates back in April and was chased after 3 innings. The Pirates have bounced back after a little slump, winning 6 of their last 8 and with Frazier and Freese back in the mix there seems to be more stability in that line up. The Braves as well are coming off some nice wins so this could be an interesting series. I feel the pitching matchup though is very skewed towards the Pirates and if they can chase Folty out of the game early Gerrit Cole would likely get win number 3.
Suggested Bet – Pirates to win $1.80
Arizona Diamondback vs Chicago White Sox
Dbacks at home with Greinke pitching, I tend to like to take. Arizona are continually hitting and have a strong lineup with a strong starter here. They are as short as they should be and I like them at this price as they return home after a short stay in San Diego.
New York Yankees vs Kansas City Royals
The Yankees have slowed down a bit of late yet return home to where they have been doing all the damage, a 13-6 home record. They took 2 of 3 games in Kansas last week and as the Royals road work is rather horrid at 6-14 you have to take the boys from the Bronx. A revitalised Pineda having a 2.03 home ERA helps the confidence.
All Prices Quoted via Crown Bet at time of writing.
Hopefully your thoughts on the games match up with mine. As always these are only a select few games I was interested in, feel free to share your opinions on any games at @MLB_TheProfits on Twitter. Happy Punting.