MLB Week 17 Preview & Bets

MLB action is back after a few days off during the All Star break. Players should be well rested and GM’s starting to decided if their team is going to make a run for it, and strike up some deals to help out any weak spots. A fair few teams in contention could use some bullpen help, Tigers and Angels to name a few. David Price is still on the trading block with rumors circulating that the Dodgers and Mariners are looking at him. Mariners move seems possible, however imagine the Dodgers starting pitching when teamed with Kershaw and Greinke. Scary. Well until that happens if at all we have plenty of action to sink out teeth into. It’s the business end and teams will quickly fall out of contention if they go on a losing streak.

Sunday  20th

Best Bet

Reds at $2.16

Multi

  0 runs 1st inning Mariners/Angels into Tigers at $2.52

Cleveland Indians vs Detroit Tigers (Game 2) (9am AEST)

Indians ($2.55)  – McAllister

Tigers ($1.54) – Scherzer

Over/Under  –  Over 8.0 ($1.88) Under 8.0 ($1.96)

Prediction

Tigers. All Star pitcher Max Scherzer has been excellent of late posting a 1.51 ERA in his last 4 starts. He dominated the Dodgers in his last showing giving up 4 hits in 7 innings. Currently 11-3 on the season with an ERA of 3.35. Tigers only losing 5 of the 19 games he has started in. McAllister is getting the call up from Triple A, Was decent his last MLB start giving up 3 runs in 7 innings however since a few starts way back in April he has been far from convincing. Indians need to get some wins going to push the Tigers in the division. Only 3 games back for the Wild Card they need to gather some momentum as they go on a road trip against AL Central opponents. Always a tough ask however against a solid pitcher in Scherzer, think this one goes they way of the Tigers ace.

Suggested Bet

Tigers -1.5 at $2.13

Cincinnati Reds vs NY Yankees (3am AEST)

Reds ($2.16)  – Simon

Yankees ($1.79) – McCarthy

Over/Under  –  Over 8.0 ($1.89) Under 8.0 ($2.02)

Prediction

Reds. Alfredo “Pasta” Simon is having a stellar season, the All Star is 12-3 on the season with an ERA of 2.70. Reds only losing 3 of the 18 games he has started. Yep and the Reds are at $2.16. Cincinnati do have a few injury concerns with Votto and Phillips out. However that has not stopped them as they continue to impress and push for a post season spot finishing the pre All Star period winning 7 of their last 10.  Former D-backs arm McCarthy pitched a no decision in his first Yankee game, going over 6 innings giving up only 1 earned run however he did give up 9 hits. Let’s not forget his record with the D-backs was 2-10 with an ERA of 5.01. That’s a NL pitcher with 5.01. At the back end of May he pitched against these Reds going only 4 innings and giving up 9 hits for 5 earned runs. Do the bookies know something I don’t cause the fact that the Reds are the underdogs is surprising enough yet alone the price. Reds at that price are insane value.

Suggested Bet

Reds at $2.07

Seattle Mariners vs LA Angels (11am AEST)

Mariners ($2.02)  – Hernandez

Angels ($1.83) – Richards

Over/Under  –  Over 6.5 ($1.92) Under 6.5 ($1.92)

Prediction

Angels. What a stellar match up. King Felix vs rising ace Richards. Hernandez is 11-2 on the year with an era of 2.12. Last 11 starts though he has posted a 7-1 record with an ERA of 1.48. The lose coming with only giving up 1 run in 8 innings. Richards also is 11-2 on the year with an ERA of 2.55.  Since June he has posted an ERA of 1.27 (Only Kershaw and Wainwright have been better) and the Angels have won his last 8 starts. Angles have the advantage with the bat and being at home I’m giving them the slightest of nudges. Think both pitches probably pick up a no decision here as I can see a bullpen blowing this. Tough match to bet on as your getting a good price for both teams on the head to head. Run line of 6.5 is not a comfortable line to have for any under backers.

Suggested Bet

0 runs 1st inning at $1.64

Other Suggested Bets

Kansas City Royals vs Boston Red Sox  (9am AEST)

As Boston have struggled this season their run into the break was pretty decent. Since they decided to move towards the youth angle and give the young guys a chance they have been rewarded. De La Rosa the man on the mound for this game, is an example of the success youth can bring. While this season is pretty much over the focus on rebuilding is a positive step. Royals have stayed around that .500 mark for too long and for me they won’t be going too far above it. Sox are a good price to win $1.78

Monday  21st

Best Bets throughout the week will be posted on Twitter once markets are available

Colorado Rockies vs Pittsburgh Pirates (3am AEST)

Rockies – Matzek

Pirates – Locke

Prediction

Pirates. Jeff Locke has been solid since his re call from Triple A, he has all the tools to be a full time MLB starting pitcher. An All Star last year he is 2-1 this season with an ERA of 2.89. His ability to pitch deep into a game and limit walks has served him well. Rockies rookie pitcher Matzek has not looked that great so far. 1-4 on the season with an ERA of 4.97, he is finding out what it’s like to be a big league pitcher. He looks to have a tough job keeping the Pirates batters quiet, with MVP candidate Andrew Mc Cutchen in fine form backed up by 1st time All Star Josh Harrison. Pirates take this in an important series of games needed to get their 2nd half of the year off to a strong start.

Suggested Bet

Pirates to win

San Francisco Giants vs Miami Marlins (3am AEST)

Giants – Lincecum

Marlins – Hand

Prediction

Giants. Lincecum has been outstanding of late allowing only 1 earned run in his last 30 innings pitched. 9-5 on the season with an ERA of 3.65. No secrets the Giants struggled in the lead up to the All Star break winning only 10 of their last 30 for what was over that period one of the MLB’s worst records. Still hanging around the top of the NL West they need to find that early season form which had people talking about them returning to the post season. Up against part time started in Brad Hand. 0-2 with an ERA of 5.82 in his 5 starts hard to see him grabbing his first win. Yes the Marlins can get runs at home, however with a line up that has regular starters back after stints on the DL, the Giants should be too strong. Back fit and focused as they were early season, this San Fran team does have what it takes to topple the Dodgers at the summit of the NL West.

Suggested Bet

Wait for markets

LA Dodgers vs St Louis Cardinals (Live ESPN 10am AEST)

Dodgers – Kershaw

Cardinals  – Martinez

Prediction

Dodgers. Pretty hard to go against Clayton Kershaw at the moment. Last start was at the seasons lowest price of $1.38. Dodgers backers grateful they just squeezed the 2-1 win in that one. 11-2 with an ERA of 1.78 on the season. His 41 inning scoreless streak coming to an end in his last outing. A true joy to watch, his curveball is just un hittable. Very possible a playoff match up preview here with the Cardinals. St Louis pitcher Martinez did not have a good last outing at all giving up 4 earned runs on 7 hits in only 4 innings. Before that he was ok, but found himself getting up high in his pitch counts rather early. He is walking way too many batters at the moment, that needs to improve if he wants to remain a starting pitcher for this Cards team. Kershaw should be able to limit the runs enough for the Dodgers to grab this.

Suggested Bet

Wait for markets

All Prices Quoted via Sportsbet at time of writing.

Hope you all have a good week with your MLB betting, hopefully your thoughts on the games match up with mine. As always these are only a select few games I was interested in, feel free to share your opinions on any games at @MLB_TheProfits on Twitter. Happy Punting.

Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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Author

mm

T-Ball

Hitting balls all over the place

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