Back at it again with another preview of a few games we like for your weekend of MLB action. It was a rather quiet end to the week after a decent start as some of the matchups and games just did not appeal. No need to push a play just for the sake of having one. There is a fair few decent series this weekend with the Mariners and Tigers going at it in what could be a Wild Card preview as well as some important series in the National League with the Brewers and Dodgers and Pirates and Nats squaring off.
Best Bet – Over 7.0 Pirates/Nats at $1.85
Next Best – Marlins -1.5 at $2.41
Multi – Over in Pirates/Nats and Brewers/Dodgers at $3.68
Seattle Mariners vs Detroit Tigers (9am AEST)
Mariners ($1.97) – Hernandez (King Felix)
Tigers ($1.87) – Price
Over/Under – Over 6.5 ($1.96) Under 6.5 ($1.88)
Mariners. What a match up. King Felix is on fire at the moment, over 7 innings pitched in each of his last 16 starts with fewer than 2 runs earned. In that streak he is 9-2 with an ERA of 1.41. Further impressive is that he is 13-3 with an ERA of 1.95 on the season. Barring some sort of catastrophic meltdown, he should take the AL Cy Young award. Career wise he is 9-2 against the Tigers. Price is making his home Tigers debut 11-8 on the season with an ERA of 3.21, he has had his ups and downs all year long. Started slowly then corrected his issues in late June to have a stellar July. Tigers are slumping, and the quality of their starting rotation is not going to do it all itself. They need to start scoring more runs. Losing former leadoff man Austin Jackson to these Mariners (Part of the Price deal also involving the Rays) has caused their run production to take a dive. With the way Hernandez is pitching and the troubles the Tigers have had with getting runs lately, the price available on Seattle is too good to refuse. Likely to be a close one but I will take the $1.97 on King Felix and the Mariners to win.
Mariners to win at $1.97
Pittsburgh Pirates vs Washington Nationals (9am AEST)
Pirates ($2.47) – Locke
Nationals ($1.57) – Gonzalez
Over/Under – Over 7.0 ($1.85) Under 7.0 ($1.99)
Pirates. Both of these pitchers have been getting tagged lately, Gonzalez 6-9 with an ERA of 4.0 up against Locke 4-3 with an ERA of 3.98. Locke only got through 5 innings in his last start giving up 4 runs, while Gonzalez made over 110 pitches in just over 4 innings giving up 2 runs with terrible command of his fastball. Both teams have batting threats ranking 3rd and 5th in the NL with runs scored. Even though McCutchen is still out for the Pirates they have still managed to get runs on the board, putting up 11 early last week against the Tigers. Think the line of 7.0 is generous and there is bound to be some runs from both teams. With the Pirates winning 8 of Locke’s last 11 starts the price of $2.47 is value, however the smarter play has to go with Over 7.0 runs at $1.85.
Over 7.0 runs at $1.85
Milwaukee Brewers vs LA Dodgers (11am AEST)
Brewers ($2.77) – Gallardo
Kershaw ($1.47) – Gonzalez
Over/Under – Over 6.0 ($1.99) Under 6.0 ($1.85)
Dodgers. Not much can be said about Kershaw that has not already, he is a freak and as close to an automatic win as you can get. 14-2 on the season with an ERA of 1.78. The Dodgers only losing in 3 of his 19 starts. Apart from one freakish outing in March where he was tagged for 7 earned runs in over 1 inning pitched he has consistently pitched late into games (4 completed games) and has limited his walks. Gallardo on the other hand is the definition of inconsistent, 7-6 on the year with an ERA of 3.44 he just seems to have a bad outing around the corner at any given time. When he has limited his walks he has been decent however. Tough to take the Brewers up against Kershaw, even at the tasty price of $2.77. Dodgers are too short to touch on the straight head to head play. The handicap at -1.5 on the Dodgers is an okay $2.10 but for me the value is on the Over 6.0 runs at $1.99. When Gallardo loses, he loses well.
Over 6.0 runs at $1.99
Other Suggested Bets
Arizona Diamondbacks vs Miami Marlins (9am AEST)
D-back pitcher Miley has been giving up runs rather easily all season, his biggest issue is getting hit for home runs. Marlins pitcher Alvarez has been impressive with Miami winning 11 of his last 13 starts. An ERA of 2.48 this season and a record of 8-5, Alvarez should be able to grab another win. The -1.5 line at $2.51 is incredible value.
All Prices Quoted via Sportsbet at time of writing.
Hope you all have a good week with your MLB betting. Hopefully your thoughts on the games match up with mine. As always these are only a select few games I was interested in, feel free to share your opinions on any games at @MLB_TheProfits on Twitter. Happy Punting.
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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