After a great week last week we finally hit a cold patch. Nothing landed. Close but did not nab the proverbial cigar. There was a lot of crazy results this week, the form teams slumped, the slumping teams won. Short price favourites lost a lot. Well done if you made any money on Baseball the last few days. I take my slightly faded Pirates cap off to you (yes I’m a Pirates fan).
An interesting quote I read during the week from a manager, and It does translate across to the betting types. “ the baseball season has cycles, and the season has seasons.” Over the course of a 162 game season, narratives come and go. The season turns and turns but the key is to stay focused on the larger picture. For us, essentially. That larger picture is ending the season with some profit. Some weeks we will lose, some we will win, you can’t take the good unless you are prepared to accept the bad.
Enough of that. Time to find some winners.
White Sox win, Tigers -1.5
Minnesota Twins vs Detroit Tigers (3am AEST)
Twins ($2.81) – Gibson
Tigers ($1.46) – Scherzer
Over/Under – Over 8.0 ($2.02) Under 8.0 ($1.83)
Tigers. Scherzer is having another great season, currently 1st in the AL in Strikeouts, WHIP and a ERA. Which sits at 1.72. He has won his last 4 starts behind 27 innings only giving up 3 earned runs with 35 Strikeouts. Yes 35 K’s in last 4 games. And 60 in total in 7 starts this season. Amazing. He beat the Twins 3 times in 3 attempts last year. Detroit are starting to get some runs now as well. Starting the season slowly with the bat they have now moved up to 9th in the MLB in Runs and 2nd in Batting average. Reigning AL MVP Miguel Cabrera is starting to hit his strides as well. The Twins have been able to score rather often but their pitching has been letting them down. Gibson is up against Detroit for the first time and while in his last game he pitched well its hard to see him keeping the Tigers off the scoreboard. Detroit bound to be rather short here so will have to take them on the minus line for any value.
Washington Nationals vs Oakland A’s (11am AEST)
Nationals ($2.47) – Roark
A’s ($1.57) – Gray
Over/Under – Over 7.0 ($1.94) Under 7.0 ($1.90)
A’s. In his last start Gray allowed only 2 runs in his 6 innings. His ERA of 1.91 sits up the top of the AL and he has not allowed more than 3 runs in any of his 7 starts so far this season. Oakland have however hit a mini slump, not driving in the runs as they were accustomed to early on in the season. This happens. Last 7 games they have only scored 4 or more runs once. 4 in a 10th innings lose to the Mariners. An interleague home stand is a good enough time to get out of that slump. In this matchup they come across Right Hander Tanner Roark. In his 6 starts he is 2-1 with an ERA of 4.17. Nationals bats are sluggish as well and need Harper and Zimmerman back in the line up ASAP. Oakland out score the Nat’s enough in this one to get the win. Gray should keep these Washington bats quiet enough to grab another W.
New York Yankees vs Milwaukee Brewers (9am AEST)
Yankees ($2.10) – Sabathia
Brewers ($1.77) – Lohse
Over/Under – Over 8.0 ($1.90) Under 8.0 ($1.94)
Brewers. Having started the season so well the Brewers are starting to drop a few and a couple of injuries are hurting them. Lohse is solid as usual and is currently 4-1 with an ERA of 2.72. His career record against the Yanks however is 1-3 with an ERA of 5.46 over 5 starts. Since Braun has been out of the line up they have not got the runs they were early on. Sabathia, since his terrible start to the season has picked it up a bit but his control is getting worse and for a guy who relied on that his whole career it’s safe to see he is never going to be consistent like he use to. Currently at 3-4 with an ERA of 5.75 I just cannot see him shutting out the Brew crew enough to get a W. Think this is a tight game but I’m giving the edge to a team who has shown they are the real deal his year with an exciting line up.
Brewers to win.
Other Suggested Bets
Chicago Cubs vs Atlanta Braves (9am AEST)
2 quality pitchers in this. Samardzija vs Santana. Cubs man on the mound still without a win even after being so impressive. His team mates just not driving in the runs for him. Atlanta another team who struggle to get across the plate. Low scoring game take the Under on the Total Run Line.
Kansas City vs Seattle (11am AEST)
Another low scoring game with Royals young pitching ace Ventura in red hot form. Depending on price of the market, Royals to win or Under on the Total Run Line. Grab the value.
Arizona Diamondbacks vs Chicago White Sox (9am AEST)
Arizona, woeful on the road. Pitching not at its best. They have picked up the offense. However led by Abreu the Sox can put up some runs. Chicago to win this.
Best Bets throughout the week will be posted on Twitter once markets are available
Houston Astros vs Baltimore Orioles (3.30am AEST)
Astros – Cosart
Orioles – Tillman
Orioles. Tillman has not been at his best this season, having a few rough outings. However the Orioles have only lost 1 game out of the 7 he has started. His personal record sits at 3-1 with an ERA of 3.80. His side are starting to get some impressive displays in though after a slow start to the season, coinciding with the return of Machado. They will be hoping to win this series with the Astros and give themselves a cushion on top of the AL East. Cosart the Astros man on the mound has been solid in his last 3 starts giving up only 4 earned runs in 20 innings. However he is 0-3 over those games and in the 7 starts he has made, Houston only have 2 wins. Orioles win this.
San Fransico Giants vs LA Dodgers (6am AEST)
Giants – Hudson
Dodgers – Kershaw
Giants. Such a shame this match up is not on ESPN. Kershaw was impressive in his return from the injury list. Shutting out the Nationals in 7 innings. Last year he went 3-1 against the Giants with an ERA of 1.38. Dodgers have been consistently inconsistent at the plate swinging this year, you never know what you will get. Puig and Ramirez have not his the level they were at last season, however Gonzalez has had a revitalised season and is in fine form. Against Hudson , there job will not exactly be easy. He has been in super form this year going 4-2 with an ERA of 1.99 with only 3 Walks in 54 innings pitched. San Fran have been hitting well and it’s a huge reason why they look a better side this year. I expect a tight game and probably on the low scoring side of things. I’m confident the Giants can get deep into this game without too much damage on their side thanks to Hudson and grab a win. Value on the match will be on their side.
St Louis Cardinals vs Pittsburgh Pirates (Live ESPN 10am AEST)
Pirates – Morton
Pirates. The Pirates rightie was impressive in his last start pitching through 8 innings allowing only 1 earned run. His record is 0-4 with an ERA of 3.45 however he has not had much run support in most of his outings. He can pitch deep into the game and if the Pirates bats can get hitting as they have recently then the can get a win here. Miller has won his last 4 games, though has not pitched deep onto any of his starts. Being the 3rd game of the series the Cards bullpen is likely to be tired and they won’t want to take him off the mound too early. He has had an issue with walks, 23 in 39 innings. His record against this lineup is not amazing. Bats are hitting .262 and his ERA against Pittsburgh is 5.32 going 0-4 in 4 starts. Will be a tight game as they generally can be between the 2 NL Central rivals, but I see some value in Morton and the Pirates if, and a big if, the Pirates can drive in runs. Only losing 1 game all season when scoring 6 or more runs (at time of writing). After an impressive series win over the hot Giants they need to keep going and the price on them will be good enough to take.
Best Bets throughout the week will be posted on Twitter once markets are available
Tampa Rays vs Seattle Mariners (12pm AEST)
Rays – Ramos
Mariners – Hernandez
Mariners. Having opening the season with 3 straight wins, Seattle’s ace has gone 0-1 in his last 5 starts with an ERA of 3.16. He can’t continue a slump like this, he is too good a pitcher. Batting against him, the Tampa line up are hitting a lousy .200 (.155 last 3 years) with only 1 home run in 135 plate appearances. Mariners are not the worst in the league at the plate so some run support is likely. Ramos, part relief pitcher part starter. Never like starting pitchers who are in and out of the bullpen. Rays are hot and cold, and many pundits predicted them to top the AL East this year. Yes it’s early but the pitching has been below par and the bats not good enough to support bad pitching. Hernandez, like I mentioned is too good to continue this slump. Mariners win on his shoulders.
LA Angels vs Toronto Blue Jays (9am AEST)
Angels – Wilson
Blue Jays – Buehrle
Toronts. Blue Jays bats have been red hot. Now 3rd in the majors in Runs scored and high up the table in all batting stats. They have hit some real form, knocking in home runs everywhere. With Buehrle pitching, currently 6-1 with an ERA of 1.91, another W should be on the cards. Angels have major problem in the bullpen and they are always giving up runs late in games. Wilson is a solid veteran, 4-2 this year with an ERA of 3.21. However in his wins, he was got a lot of support. 7,13,14 and 9 runs have allowed him to grab those W’s. He won’t get that help here. .292 career batting average against him from this Toronto line up. Blue Jays can continue their nice streak. Good enough for me.
Blue Jays -1.5
As always these are only a select few games I was interested in, feel free to share your opinions on any games at @MLB_TheProfits on Twitter. Happy Punting.
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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