Well the wait is finally over as the World Series is now here. The first matchup of 100 win teams since 1970, you can’t argue that it’s the two best and most deserving teams fighting it out. The Los Angeles Dodgers made quick work of a tired looking Cubbies team, while the Astros fought back to take the last 2 games of the series and beat the Yankees in 7. This is going to be a fun series, and while I tend not to find much to play in the World Series I’ll do my best this year to continue the strong post season of profits.
Los Angeles Dodgers vs Houston Astros (11.00am AEST)
Dodgers ($1.56) – Kershaw (18-4, 2.31 ERA)
Astros ($2.48) – Keuchel (14-5, 2.90 ERA)
After a NLCS series clinching win, Kershaw gets the ball for Game 1 of the World Series. His work this post season has been pretty good especially his last start going 6 innings giving up 1 run. 3.63 ERA over his 3 starts. His only weakness giving up 6 home runs over 17 innings which is very unusual for him. The Dodgers bats just hammered the Cubbies over 5 games scoring 28 runs. 11 of them in game 5. It’s a pretty dangerous line up, and the Astros pitchers will need to be spot on.
Dallas Keuchel will be the first man tasked with keeping the Dodgers quiet. 3.53 ERA on the road this season .245 BAA. After 2 solid starts his last post season work went south going only 4 innings giving up 4 runs. The Astros bats finally got going in the last 2 games lead by Altuve and the key for them this series will be working the count against the Dodgers line up. They don’t strikeout much and getting on base as often as possible will be key.
From a betting perspective, I’ve found World Series games to be very hard to read in the past so have to tread lightly. The run total is set at a decent 6.5-7 (depending on book) and seems a great play on overs considering Keuchels road issues, Kershaw penchant for giving up the long ball of late and the Stros wobbly pen. The Dodgers Team Total over 3.5 at $1.84 is standing out to me though as the play to make. Hot hitting and at home to start the World Series, I expect them to rack up a few runs, hopefully just enough to cover the 3.5. For ML backers there isn’t much value as usual around Kershaw, so maybe take the RL at $2.28 instead. I’ve listed my suggestions below to fit your style of bet. I however will take it easy for Game 1 and just the one small play.
Dodgers -1.5 $2.28
Over 6.5 Total Runs $1.83
Dodgers TT o3.5 Runs $1.84 (0.5u)
Suggested Series Plays
Playing Dodgers 4-3 $4.50 and Dodgers 4-2 $5.50
All Prices Quoted via Crown Bet at time of writing.
Hopefully your thoughts on the games match up with mine. As always these are only a select few games I was interested in, feel free to share your opinions on any games at @MLB_TheProfits on Twitter. Happy Punting.