2016 Match Day 5 EPL Preview & Bets

English Premier League - Football

This weekend sees the English Premier League head into week 5 and already we can see that Manchester City have rocketed ahead in the title odds after their sublime dispatching of Manchester United last week. United in particular have slipped to the $6 mark such was the performance of their rivals Manchester City in that first half. City were simply unstoppable for the majority of the match. As a result, they’re the only undefeated side the league after 4 games and are well placed to make it 5 from 5 against Bournemouth at home this weekend. It’s not the headline match though with particular focus on Chelsea hosting Liverpool in what looks to be a pretty close encounter to kick the weekend matches off.

H to H Multi Bet: Leicester Win ($1.53), Everton win ($1.67), Arsenal Win ($1.6), Manchester United win ($1.57) = $6.42

Match Day 4 Best Bet: Manchester City to win both halves at $2.6 

**Odds from Sportsbet as at 16th September

Chelsea vs Liverpool   

Last weekend Chelsea stumbled away to Swansea when they drew 2-2 whilst Liverpool were comfortable winners over last season’s Champions Leicester. It makes for an interesting match here as both sides have the attacking threats to score heavily but defensively both have looked a little off this season. For Liverpool particularly their defence has been a concern for a number of seasons where they haven’t really had a settled line-up. Their last two games they’ve only conceded 2 goals but the fact remains they have conceded 7 times in 4 games. Chelsea aren’t an easy side to keep quiet, particularly with Diego Costa starting the season strongly with 4 goals in 4 games. This should be a pretty even contest but it’s unlikely that either side will be able to keep a clean sheet.

Predicted score: Draw 2-2
Best Bet: Both teams to score – Yes at $1.57 (90%)
Next Best: Over 2.5 goals at $1.68

Hull vs Arsenal   

The Tigers started the season better than anyone would have expected. Sitting on 7 points and in 8th position, they now have a little bit of a luxury of time to try and quickly settle the influx of players that they brought in at the end of the window. Over the course of the season it’s still looking likely that they may struggle for points in big patches and for this game they may find it difficult to get much out of Arsenal as well. To their standards, Arsenal haven’t had the start they would have liked with 2 wins and a draw from 4 games but they do look like they’re building into the season nicely. Mustafi looks a solid and very much needed addition to their injury riddled defence which is an area they need to improve on after 6 goals conceded in 4 games. This may the game though where they build some more solid foundations and although Hull won’t just sit back, Arsenal’s class should rise above in the end.

Predicted score: Arsenal 2-0
Best Bet: Arsenal to win at $1.6 (85%)
Next Best: Both teams to score – No at $1.91

Leicester vs Burnley  

After losing to Liverpool last weekend, things are not looking so great in the league for Leicester at the moment. Just 1 win and 1 draw from 4 games has made for a shaky start from the reigning champions given the fairy tale they enjoyed last season. Things may be looking up though after a first up win in their Champions League debut during the week away from home. Sometimes all it takes is a strong win on the road to get the mood up and they should be well placed for the visit of Burnley this weekend. Burnley have been solid without being spectacular but it’s difficult to see where they can get easy points to survive because this weekend is not going to be easy. With the mood up after their Champions League win, Leicester should be winning this.

Predicted score: Leicester 2-0
Best Bet: Leicester to win at $1.53 (90%)
Next Best: Half-Time Draw at $2.2

Manchester City vs Bournemouth  

Manchester City need only play half as well as they did in that first half against Manchester United last weekend and they’ll win this pretty comfortably. They didn’t look nervous or under pressure at all and it’s a credit to Guardiola as to how quickly they seem to have come together in such a short space of time. In the end it’s not difficult to see why given the immense talent they have in their squad but last weekend was incredible to watch as a neutral. Bournemouth have a huge task ahead for them given the form of City at the moment where they have a perfect record of 4 wins from 4 with 11 goals scored and just the 4 conceded. They’re deservedly clear title favourites at the moment and should win here.

Predicted score: Manchester City 3-0
Best Bet: Manchester City to win both halves at $2.6 (90%)
Next Best: Manchester City -2 Handicap at $2.8

West Brom vs West Ham   

The Hammer’s don’t look like the side they were for large parts of last season and they face a difficult trip to West Brom after their 4-2 defeat at home to Watford last weekend. Sitting in 17th, West Ham are a much better side than that and with time they’ll easily get back into the top 7 or 8 sides. The delayed start to the season for Payet after the Euros may have a little to do with it given he was such an integral player to their performances last season but they also have a number of new faces and a new stadium to adjust to and that’s just going to take time. This weekend looks like it’ll be really tough to get points. West Brom haven’t been giving away goals easily, as is the norm under Pulis, and their form doesn’t warrant favouritism of any kind here. The Baggies will be tough to beat and the best West Ham could hope for right now is a draw.

Predicted score: Draw 1-1
Best Bet: Half-time Draw at $1.91 (80%)
Next Best: Under 2.5 goals at $1.59

Everton vs Middlesbrough   

Everton have had a really strong start to the season and after an emphatic 3-0 win last week over Sunderland, they are well placed to be fighting for European places (albeit it’s a little premature to be talking about that after 4 games). Sitting in 3rd with 10 points, a Lukaku fit and fresh off an 11 minute hat-trick against Sunderland, Everton are looking tough to beat here. Middlesbrough have had a decent start to the season themselves so will make a real contest of this match. Everton though are starting to show that they are getting back to their form of a few seasons ago where at home they were particularly difficult to beat. This weekend they’ll again be difficult to beat and whilst Middlesbrough can get something from this, Everton should edge it.

Predicted score: Everton 2-1
Best Bet: Everton to win at $1.67 (80%)
Next Best: Everton to lead at Half-Time at $2.2

Watford vs Manchester United   

United seemed a little shocked and nervous against Manchester City last weekend and they just never really got going. They played better in the second half but City were at another level. It showed that they still need time to gel and although they’ll win plenty of games this season, some will be ugly wins. Watford proposes an interesting opponent this weekend. Despite their first win last week, they’ve been playing some good football. Their win over West Ham last weekend will give them a boost and they’ll need it for United this week. United should move on quickly from last week’s loss and should rebound quickly here. Watford will be right in it though so this will be a close one whilst United also need to bounce back from defeat in the Europa League during the week.

Predicted score: Manchester United 2-1
Best Bet: Over 2.5 goals at $1.85 (80%)
Next Best: Manchester United to win at $1.57

Crystal Palace vs Stoke  

Since their 1-0 loss to Tottenham, Palace have managed 2 wins and a draw in all competitions and look to be building up some momentum. They host Stoke this week who have lost their last 3 league matches conceding 9 goals in the process. It’s also evident once again that they have a lack of attacking options which some can be attributed to injury but there’s also a lack of depth in quality as well up front (Bony on loan helps but he needs to find form).  For Palace they really should be in the box seat for this. They’ve conceded just the 4 goals in comparison to Stoke’s 10 and that strength and confidence in defence should see Palace through. Additionally, Benteke getting on the scoreboard last time out should see him add to that fairly quickly in the coming weeks as he grows into a style of play that suits him better.

Predicted score: Crystal Palace 2-1
Best Bet: Crystal Palace to win either half at $1.54 (85%)
Next Best: Crystal Palace to win at $2

Southampton vs Swansea   

The Saints were unlucky to not take at least a point from their match at Arsenal last weekend thanks to an injury time penalty for Cazorla. For Swansea they’ll be optimistic from their 2-2 draw against Chelsea where they held a 2-1 lead before conceding latethough their recent record against Chelsea is quite a good one. In their 8 top flight meetings with Southampton they have only won the once but 6 of those matches were also decided by a goal or less. We should have a typically similar result in the one as well. Both sides like to control possession so it might not be a thrilling end to end encounter but it will be close. They are sides that aren’t fond of just pumping up the long ball and that slower build up play will result in fewer goals.

Predicted score: Draw 1-1
Best Bet: Under 2.5 goals at $1.79 (85%)
Next Best: Half-time Draw at $2.1

Tottenham vs Sunderland 

A disappointing mid-week Champions League result for Tottenham should see them push hard for a win this weekend. It’s perhaps good timing that they face Sunderland who are once again languishing towards the bottom of the table on 1 point. Tottenham’s mid-week result wasn’t simply that they didn’t play well but more so that Monaco took their chances whilst Tottenham failed to capitalise on thiers. They created plenty of chances then and against Sunderland they’ll likely create plenty more. Add to this the return to the side of Dembele who gives them a lot of drive and strength in midfield and we should see more of the Tottenham side that we had last season.

Predicted score: Tottenham 3-0
Best Bet: Tottenham to win both halves at $3 (75%)
Next Best: Tottenham -2 Handicap at $3.4



As an Australian growing up AFL was always my no.1 sport especially given I was lucky enough to grow up a few blocks from Carlton’s home ground, Princes Park, where I was lucky enough to attend many games. That’s where my passion for sport began but it was until the early 2000’s when I discovered a real passion for football with the Socceroos 2002 World Cup qualifiers against Uruguay accelerating my football journey. From there I began to follow the Premier League and haven’t looked back since. These days I’m a massive Tottenham fan where I’ve enjoyed many sleepless nights religiously watching them without missing a game despite many roller coaster feelings. There’s just something magical and glamorous when you watch the EPL and knowing the Profits owners Drew and Euan through studies, I’m now lucky enough to be able to share my thoughts on each game each week of the season.

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