English Premier League 2017/18 – Game Week 37

English Premier League - Football

The 2nd last week of EPL action is here and there’s plenty to keep an eye on this week given there’s 16 matches to be had prior to the final days play. Thankfully, despite Manchester City’s dominant title win, there’s still a lot to be decided in the final few games. 4th spot is still up for grabs, albeit a tough task for Chelsea to close the 5 point gap on Tottenham whilst at the other end of the table the relegation spots are still to be finalised with West Brom, Stoke, Southampton and Swansea right in the mix for those bottom 3 spots. West Brom surprisingly are still a mathematical chance of surviving, but it all depends on an upset victory over Tottenham this weekend. Anything other than a win and they are out so there’s could be some nerves around.

**Odds from Sportsbet.com.au as of 2nd May

Brighton vs Manchester United

Brighton may have only lost once in their last 4 but they haven’t won a match since the start of March when they beat Arsenal 2-1. United on the other hand are finishing the season off strongly losing just once in their last 9 league matches. What makes this match interesting though is the fact that Brighton have lost just 4 matches at home this season so United will need to be at their best to take the 3 points here.

Predicted Result: Manchester United 2-0

Best Bet: Manchester United to win at $1.62

Best Value Bet: Manchester United to win both halves at $4.5

Stoke vs Crystal Palace

The Potters are undefeated in their last 3 but are desperate for a win to give their chances of survival a boost. They sit 3 points off safety but those sides currently above the relegation zone also have a game in hand making this an even more critical match for Stoke to win.  Palace’s 5-0 win over Leicester last time out means they are basically safe from relegation which can be a hindrance when playing a side desperate for a win. It’ll be a close game but Stoke at home with the nothing to lose requirement should get the job done.

Predicted Result: Stoke 2-1

Best Bet: Stoke to win either half at $1.78

Best Value Bet: Stoke to win at $2.5

Bournemouth vs Swansea 

On the back of 3 straight losses, you’d be thinking Bournemouth would surely be due for a win. They have a tough task though to turn things around this weekend though when they host Swansea who will be pretty eager on pushing for some points to give them every chance of surviving. The Welsh side have had some tough fixtures of late in the form of a 5-0 loss to Manchester City before a more respectable 1-0 loss to Chelsea. An away win might be a stretch though and Swansea have a small safety net in a game in hand on the 2 of the 3 sides below them in the relegation zone too so not all is lost if they don’t succeed here.

Predicted Result: Draw 1-1

Best Bet: Under 2.5 goals at $1.89

Best Value Bet: Draw at $3.4

Leicester vs West Ham 

The not so long ago former league Champions were thrashed by Palace last time out 5-0. The score may have been inflated slightly by a 2nd half red card but by the Palace were already 2-0 up and well on the way to a win.  It now makes it 3 losses in 4 for the home side as they look to bounce back against West Ham. Lucky for them, West Ham are a pretty poor away side having just won twice on the road this season and conceding 42 times. Leicester were poor last time out but that may wake them up for the final stretch.

Predicted Result: Leicester 2-1

Best Bet: BTTS – Yes at $1.67

Best Value Bet: Leicester to win at $2.1

Watford vs Newcastle

Watford weren’t without their chances against Tottenham during the week but were largely outdone by a side with more class and talent not at their best. Newcastle have been serviceable away from home though this season but they do lack that scoring capability up front with just 17 in their travels. Expect a pretty close contest in this one as it’s two sides that will be difficult to split.

Predicted Result: Draw 1-1

Best Bet: Watford to win either half at $1.74

Best Value Bet: Draw and BTTS at $4.2

West Brom vs Tottenham  

This looks one of the more intriguing battles of the weekend. West Brom must win if they have any chance to survive whilst Tottenham are just as focused to close out their season strongly and guarantee themselves a top 4 spot. The Baggies though are now undefeated in their last 4 with 2 wins and are showing the belief in their performances that they really needed to come a lot sooner. A win here would also be their first at home since Mid-January but they’ll be up against it with Tottenham not an easy side to score against. Spurs are susceptible to the odd unexpected goal but they don’t look likely to lose so survival hopes will likely be dashed after this match.

Predicted Result: Tottenham 2-1

Best Bet: BTTS – Yes at $1.91

Best Value Bet: Half-Time Draw at $2.37

Everton vs Southampton  

The Saints are another side desperate for a win but Everton are heading into this on the back of 2 wins and don’t look like losing, particularly at home. Everton have also only conceded once in their last 4 matches and with Southampton struggling for goals on the road this season, it looks a tough ask.

Predicted Result: Everton 1-0

Best Bet: Under 2.5 goals at $1.68

Best Value Bet: Everton Draw No Bet at $2.03

Manchester City vs Huddersfield  

Manchester City are smashing their way to the end of the season winning their last 3 by a combined 12-2. Huddersfield have nothing to really lose here but they’ll be keen to ensure that this isn’t a complete whooping. Problem is, keeping City light on for goals won’t be easy and it looks as though they’ll win comfortably here.

Predicted Result: Manchester City 4-0

Best Bet: Over 3.5 goals at $1.87

Best Value Bet: -3 Handicap Manchester City at $3.1

Arsenal vs Burnley

At the time of writing, Arsenal are still yet to play their 2nd leg of the Europa League Semi Finals but there’s a feeling that even if they have a good result, backing it up at home this weekend will be a big effort. Burnley have 6th best away record in the league, losing just 4 times, and will not be beaten easily here. Arsenal are pinning all their remaining hopes on making it through to the Europa League final but even now that looks a monumental task after conceding an away goal to Atletico. A win there for Arsenal and they might just switch off a little bit against Burnley. If they get knocked out then the flow on affect from that with nothing to play for in the league could be worse.

Predicted Result: Draw 1-1

Best Bet: Under 2.5 goals at $1.98

Best Value Bet: Draw at $4

Chelsea vs Liverpool

Liverpool will need to back up from their Champions League Semi Final to get a much needed win here for their hopes of finishing in the top 3 for automatic qualification for UCL next season. It’s surely an afterthought though as they are in a great position for the UCL final but you have to wonder what impact that will have on the remainder of their league season. Regardless of that though, Chelsea will be well placed to win here being at home and Liverpool having the extra game during the week in the build-up.

Predicted Result: Chelsea 2-1

Best Bet: Over 2.5 goals at $1.71

Best Value Bet: Half-Time Draw at $2.1

Mid-Week Matches

Swansea vs Southampton

The loss to Bournemouth at the weekend has put Swansea in a very nervy position as they slip into the relegation zone on goal difference with Southampton capturing a point in their weekend fixture. It makes this match a must win for both sides as a win will secure the winner safety for next season and the loser a place in the Championship. A draw would leave things open heading into the final day’s play and from a neutral perspective that would be fantastic as it also means West Brom have a chance too. For this one though, Swansea will have a massive advantage with the home crowd but with it also comes a great sense of pressure, particularly if things don’t go their way early. The Saints will be difficult here, they’ve not lost in their last 2 away and the importance of this match means there will likely be few chances for either side.

Predicted Result: Draw 1-1

Best Bet: Under 2.5 goals at $1.59

Best Value Bet: Draw at $3.2

Chelsea vs Huddersfield

The Blues have a sniff now after beating Liverpool whilst at the same time Tottenham lost to West Brom. It means they can continue to put the pressure on heading into the final day for one of those coveted top 4 spots. Huddersfield will back themselves though having secured a fantastic away draw at Manchester City but now that they have guaranteed their safety, you might wonder how they would back up again against one of the big dogs. It’ll be a tight contest but expect Chelsea to get the result here.

Predicted Result: Chelsea 1-0

Best Bet: Chelsea to win to Nil at $1.72

Best Value Bet: Under 2.5 goals at $2.5

Leicester vs Arsenal 

Wenger has 2 games remaining in charge of Arsenal and if they go anything like his final match at the Emirates then he’s well on the way to guiding his side to another 3 points here. The Foxes have been pretty thin on wins at home lately though and haven’t won at home in the league since 21st Jan when they beat Watford 2-0. In their last 7 home games they’ve managed 5 draws but have only scored 5 times as well. Arsenal might be a bit of a roller coaster side this season, but Leicester just don’t look like they have a win in them to finish out the season.

Predicted Result: Arsenal 2-1

Best Bet: Over 2.5 goals at $1.57

Best Value Bet: Half-time Draw at $2.25

Manchester City vs Brighton

After being humbled at home to Huddersfield, Manchester City may well just come out and put the foot down in this one. It’s not very often you see a side of City’s quality go scoreless for 90 minutes and it’s only the 2nd time they’ve gone scoreless in a league match this season. Brighton on the other hand guaranteed their safety last time out with a fantastic win over Manchester United at home but doubling the pain onto United’s rivals feels like a bit of a stretch for this one.

Predicted Result: Manchester City 4-0

Best Bet: Manchester City to win to Nil at $1.57

Best Value Bet: Manchester City win & Over 3.5 goals at $2.25

Tottenham vs Newcastle

There is no denying that Tottenham’s finish to the season has been really poor and they’re in a poor state of form heading into their final 2 home matches of the season. They now sit just 2 points above Chelsea in the fight for a top 4 spot and will need to navigate their way past Newcastle to keep that buffer. In their last 5 matches, Tottenham have only scored 6 goals which is well down on their usual output and they won’t exactly have it all their way against Newcastle here. Defensively, Newcastle can be frustrating and that’s sure to be their intent as they head into this match. They’ve got nothing to lose but they’ll be no doubt motivated to give Spurs a hard time like they did a few years ago by beating them 5-1 on the final day of the 2015/16 season. It’s unlikely to be a similar score line of course, but it still might be a lot close than Tottenham would like.

Predicted Result: Tottenham 2-1

Best Bet: first half over 1.5 goals at $1.72

Best Value Bet: Half-Time result at $2

West Ham vs Manchester United

The Hammers will enjoy 2 home matches to finish the season off but neither of them look particularly easy. Their home form hasn’t exactly been consistent with their last 6 matches in particular showing just that. In those 6 matches they have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 2. It doesn’t mean that United are suddenly guaranteed to win this, you need only look at their last match where they lost to Brighton away making it 3 losses on the road in their last 6. It’s one of those matches too where little matters so you can expect West Ham to play with some freedom and purpose as they look to beat one of the big boys. Manchester United don’t seem to always be able to handle the pressure from those below them and the nature of this time of the season means anything can happen.

Predicted Result: Draw 2-2

Best Bet: Over 2.5 goals at $1.74

Best Value Bet: Draw and BTTS at $4.5

Author

mm

Goal

As an Australian growing up AFL was always my no.1 sport especially given I was lucky enough to grow up a few blocks from Carlton’s home ground, Princes Park, where I was lucky enough to attend many games. That’s where my passion for sport began but it was until the early 2000’s when I discovered a real passion for football with the Socceroos 2002 World Cup qualifiers against Uruguay accelerating my football journey. From there I began to follow the Premier League and haven’t looked back since. These days I’m a massive Tottenham fan where I’ve enjoyed many sleepless nights religiously watching them without missing a game despite many roller coaster feelings. There’s just something magical and glamorous when you watch the EPL and knowing the Profits owners Drew and Euan through studies, I’m now lucky enough to be able to share my thoughts on each game each week of the season.

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