English Premier League 2017/18 – Game Week 38

English Premier League - Football

The final day of the 2017/18 season might not have a lot left to be decided but there will still be plenty of entertainment. The Top 4 is almost sorted with just the small matter of whether Liverpool or Chelsea will take the last spot. Chelsea stumbled during the week against Huddersfield at home when they drew 1-1 meaning that Tottenham guaranteed at least 4th spot and they will need to beat Newcastle away and hope that Liverpool lose at home to Brighton in order for them to make it through. That does seem unlikely of course but it’s not totally unrealistic the way some results have been going so far. The other end of the table is pretty much sorted with Stoke & West Brom confirmed for relegation whilst Swansea in 18th are a slim mathematical chance of surviving. Swansea will rely heavily on Southampton suffering a heavy loss to City and themselves being able to score a big win at home over Stoke. It looks very unlikely but you never know.

**Odds from Sportsbet.com.au as of 11th May

Newcastle vs Chelsea  

This looks a really good match tactically and a very tough one for Chelsea to capture 3 points. Newcastle looked pretty solid away to Tottenham during the week with nothing really to play for other than to spoil Tottenham’s goal of finishing in the top 4. They played well defensively but also had the better of the chances all game and a home game here to finish off the season will be pretty difficult for Chelsea to overcome. The Blues looked like they couldn’t handle the pressure against Huddersfield during the week and although previous to that they were in good form, this one looks like being pretty even come the final whistle.

Predicted Result: Draw 1-1

Best Bet: Under 2.5 goals at $1.82

Best Value Bet: Double Chance Newcastle at $2.4

Southampton vs Manchester City

The Saints will be feeling pretty safe heading into this one as even a loss will very likely see them safe but if they concede too many then it might start getting a little nervy. That’s because whilst they have a 9 goal lead over Swansea on goal difference, a big loss and an unlikely big win for Swansea could flip things on its head. With that said, regardless of how big the win is, it doesn’t look like Southampton will be going down at all. Manchester City should win this as they look to make it to 100 points for the season and add to their 105 goals scored.

Predicted Result: Manchester City 3-1

Best Bet: Manchester City to win at $1.4

Best Value Bet: Over 3.5 goals at $2.33

Swansea vs Stoke 

Swansea have nothing to lose and to have any chance of surviving they must win this. The issue for Swansea though is that their confidence will be shot having lost such a crucial game at home to Southampton during the week. That match has ultimately sealed their fate to be relegated and that feeling of despair may creep into their performance here. Stoke will be keen to get things over with being last on the table right now but at the same time it’d be good for them to take a win to finish the season and build momentum into next season. A tough game for both but perhaps Swansea will have the better.

Predicted Result: Swansea 2-1

Best Bet: Swansea to win at $1.83

Best Value Bet: Half-Time Draw at $2.25

Tottenham vs Leicester  

It was a nervy and tense atmosphere when Tottenham scrapped their way to a 1-0 win over Newcastle during the week. The win though means that they have guaranteed a Champions League place for next season and with no burden of qualification hanging over them heading into the final day, this could well open up for Tottenham. Tottenham’s goal output lately has been lacking, just 5 goals in their last 5 when they have averaged  at least 1.8 a game all season. It has been perhaps the worry of conceding and being put on the back foot though that has seen them underperform to their usual standards but you should see that turn around in this final match. Leicester won’t be easy and will be feeling good after dispatching Arsenal during the week but overall of late they haven’t been in great form losing 4 of their previous 5 matches prior to their last win.

Predicted Result: Tottenham 3-0

Best Bet: Tottenham win & Over 2.5 goals at $1.61

Best Value Bet: Tottenham to win to Nil at $2.4

West Ham vs Everton

Everton are undefeated in their last 5 and will be a good chance of upsetting the home side here on the final day though the Hammers showed a lot of grit in their scoreless draw with Man United during the week. Keeping a clean sheet heading into their final home game of the season will give them a lot of confidence and that might mean that Everton’s form really means very little in the context of this match. Everyone wants to win their final league game of the season and West Ham look well placed.

Predicted Result: West Ham 2-1

Best Bet: Over 2.5 goals at $1.76

Best Value Bet: West Ham to lead at Half-Time at $2.88

Burnley vs Bournemouth 

Burnley have had a fantastic season and one which has seen them qualify for the Europa League which is a massive achievement. Their home form has been a little more questionable this season compared to previous but their ability to perform both home and away now has been the biggest reason for their success. Heading into this match, they’ve only lost once in their last 6 at home and whilst they might not score a lot of goals, they don’t concede a lot either. They’ve conceded just 15 times at home this season which is the best defensive home record in the league behind Manchester United, Liverpool, Tottenham and Manchester City. Bournemouth on the other hand have taken just 3 wins on the road this season and overall their form hasn’t been too great winning just once in their last 6. Burnley to close out the season with a good win.

Predicted Result: Burnley 2-0

Best Bet: Burnley to win at $2.1

Best Value Bet: Burnley to win to Nil at $3.75

Crystal Palace vs West Brom

This could have been a game made more interesting if West Brom were still a chance of survival but Southampton’s win over Swansea during the week ended all hope of that. It’s disappointing too because the Baggies were playing very well and were showing a lot in their fight to survive. It’ll be interesting to see how they go in this one and whether they have that same amount of drive and focus. Something tells me that whilst they will no doubt drop off a bit in their intensity they won’t exactly step aside and let Palace win here. A win or a draw for the away side here is important in context of their season ahead in the Championship. Palace may have won their last 2 at home but they don’t posses a great home record overall so this may be tougher than they may think.

Predicted Result: Draw 1-1

Best Bet: Under 2.5 goals at $2.01

Best Value Bet: Draw at $3.75

Huddersfield vs Arsenal  

Huddersfield will be looking to continue the pain for Arsenal having all but secured their safety for the 2018/19 season. It’s incredible to realise that Arsenal have yet to take a point on the road in 2018 heading into this match. For all their troubles you would have been forgiven for thinking they would have at least taken a point. They’ll no doubt like to get a win but Huddersfield will be in pretty good spirits and will be difficult to beat at home to celebrate their survival. The challenge really for Arsenal is mentally they aren’t defensively switched on and the compounding issues with injuries are starting to take their toll.

Predicted Result: Huddersfield 2-1

Best Bet: Over 2.5 goals at $1.49

Best Value Bet: Huddersfield Double Chance at $2.4

Liverpool vs Brighton

Massive game for Liverpool here whilst they also have an eye towards the Champions League Final. Brighton have been a tricky opponent of late too but away from home they have the 2nd worst record in the league taking just 11 points from 18 matches. It’s interesting to note that Liverpool have only scored 7 goals in their last 6 matches. That can be somewhat explained through their Champions League commitments as they rotated the squad but expect them to open up this weekend given they won’t play until the end of May for their Champions League Final.

Predicted Result: Liverpool 4-1

Best Bet: Liverpool/Liverpool Half-Time/Full-Time at $1.57

Best Value Bet: Liverpool win & Over 3.5 goals at $2.3

Manchester United vs Watford

United were frustrated at West Ham during the week and had to settle for a draw but don’t expect a similar result here when they host Watford. Watford won last time out at home to Newcastle but on the road it’s a whole different story and United will be in no mood for a draw or loss. With the FA Cup final taking place next Sunday, you can expect Mourinho to field his strongest side as a lead-in to that match. With that in mind, Watford will have to play out of their skins just to be able to score against United considering that the home side has conceded just 9 times at home this season. That’s an incredible record and one that places them in a very strong position here.

Predicted Result: Manchester United 3-0

Best Bet: Manchester United to win to Nil at $2.37

Best Value Bet: Manchester United to score exactly 3 goals at $4

 

Author

mm

Goal

As an Australian growing up AFL was always my no.1 sport especially given I was lucky enough to grow up a few blocks from Carlton’s home ground, Princes Park, where I was lucky enough to attend many games. That’s where my passion for sport began but it was until the early 2000’s when I discovered a real passion for football with the Socceroos 2002 World Cup qualifiers against Uruguay accelerating my football journey. From there I began to follow the Premier League and haven’t looked back since. These days I’m a massive Tottenham fan where I’ve enjoyed many sleepless nights religiously watching them without missing a game despite many roller coaster feelings. There’s just something magical and glamorous when you watch the EPL and knowing the Profits owners Drew and Euan through studies, I’m now lucky enough to be able to share my thoughts on each game each week of the season.

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