English Premier League – Match Day 11

English Premier League - Football

It’s week 11 of the English Premier League and yet again all eyes will be on Mourinho’s Chelsea as they kick things off against Liverpool. A loss could spell the end for Mourinho after a horrid start to their title defence that looks pretty much impossible to retain now after 11 games sitting 11 points off the lead. It’s that time of the year too when managers get the sack with Liverpool, Sunderland, and Villa all making changes so it wouldn’t be a surprise if we saw another after this weekend. In addition to this game kicking things off though, there’s plenty of good looking matchups with Palace hosting Manchester United whilst I’m intrigued with Watford taking on West Ham which looks to be a good contest. As always though anything can happen in the Premier League so let’s see how it may play out this weekend.
**Odds from Sportsbet as at 31st October

Chelsea ($2.1) versus Liverpool ($3.75), Draw ($3.3)

Everything has gone wrong for Chelsea and Mourinho this season and they have a tough encounter this week against a Liverpool side in a good mood after their first win under Klopp during the week. One of the biggest issues for Chelsea has been that defensively they have been poor. They have the same defensive record as Sunderland who sit 18th and are worse than Aston Villa who sit bottom of the league. With just the 3 wins from 10 games it’s difficult to back Chelsea in anything at the moment. The same can be said of Liverpool though having won just the 3 game themselves. Defensively though they have been far better conceding 8 fewer goals and registering just the 2 losses. I wouldn’t count on either side winning in this one but I think Liverpool will have some momentum as they start to develop under Klopp which may see them take a point.

Predicted score: Draw 1-1
Best Bet: Under 2.5 goals at $1.87 (75%)
Next Best: Double Chance Liverpool at $1.75

Crystal Palace ($3.6) versus Manchester United ($2.1), Draw ($3.4)

We should see a much better game this week from Manchester United after such a poor showing from both Manchester sides last week that saw just 2 shots on target in a 0-0 draw. They visit Palace this week who are in search of a win after 2 losses and will no doubt play with higher intent for a result here. Palace have a lot of pace and are dangerous down the wings and on the counter which could be troublesome for United at times. I’m just not sure though that Palace will be able to break through United’s defence enough to secure 3 points. United defensively have been great in conceding just the 8 goals to hold the best defensive record in the league along with Tottenham, Arsenal, and City. Defensively Palace though aren’t far off United in that they have conceded only 3 goals more and have shown against some of the bigger clubs that they can hold their own. They only lost 1-0 to Tottenham and Man City, and beat Chelsea 2-1. I’m leaning towards a narrow United win here but watch for Palace because they can be dangerous.

Predicted score: Manchester United 2-1
Best Bet: Over 2.5 goals at $2.13 (75%)
Next Best: Manchester United to win at $2.1

Manchester City ($1.25) versus Norwich ($12), Draw ($6)

After a goalless and boring draw with rivals United last week, City will be raring to go and they will be pretty eager to get going against Norwich this week. Norwich come into this one off 3 losses including that incredible 6-2 loss to Newcastle and whilst I’m sure they’ll be brave I don’t think there’s much chance of them getting something from this one away from home. The Manchester Derby was the first time City have been kept scoreless this season and but the fact they still have the best offensive record in the league means at 24 goals suggests they clearly won’t be quiet again. In a boost as well, City should welcome back David Silva from injury which makes it a scarier prospect for Norwich with a front 4 of De Bruyne, Silva, Sterling, and Bony. This one isn’t a matter of who will win but more so a matter for Man City of how much.

Predicted score: Manchester City 4-0
Best Bet: Manchester City Half-Time/Full-Time at $1.72 (90%)
Next Best: 4 or more goals at $2.11

Newcastle ($2.4) versus Stoke ($3), Draw ($3.3)

They were the better side last week before Coloccini was sent off and then it all went wrong from there to allow Sunderland their sixth straight win over Newcastle. It makes this weekend an interesting prospect then with the visit of Stoke who have had an interesting run into this one that may count against them. They lost at home to Watford last week after winning 3 on the trot and had a win over Chelsea in the Capital One Cup on penalties during the week. Playing that extra time during the week could give Newcastle a little more legs in this one. In the end I’d expect this one to still be pretty close but I’m going to back Newcastle here. They were a bit unlucky against Sunderland and I’ll give them every chance to get the 3 points over a Stoke side who will have some players that may be a little flat.

Predicted score: Newcastle 2-1
Best Bet: A Goal scored in both halves – Yes at $1.82 (75%)
Next Best: Newcastle to win either half at $1.68

Swansea ($5) versus Arsenal ($1.75), Draw ($3.6)

Swansea are unbeaten against Arsenal in their last 3 meetings winning 2 but they still have a lot of work to do if they are to keep that trend going this week. Swansea registered their first win last week since 31st of August but it’s difficult to take too much confidence from that win given it was against a struggling Villa side. They won’t mind too much though that Arsenal will be without Walcott after he picked up an injury but they still need to deal with the likes of Sanchez, Ozil, and Cazorla who’ll be feeding a hungry Giroud up front. Swansea may feel they can take advantage of Arsenal’s surprise loss to Sheffield Wednesday in the Capital One Cup as well but for me I’m not so sure that will open many doors for Swansea to break through in this one. Arsenal have won their last 4 in the league and I’m confident they’ll continue that record here.

Predicted score: Arsenal 1-0
Best Bet: Arsenal to win at $1.75 (80%)
Next Best: Under 2.5 goals at $2.1

Watford ($2.62) versus West Ham ($2.75), Draw ($3.25)

It may sound odd but this could potentially be one of the more exciting contests this weekend. There’s no denying how good West Ham have been this season and they deservedly sit in 3rd after just the 2 losses in 10 games. I think what’s impressed me most about West Ham has been their scoring ability having scored 22 times already as it’s not really something we’ve seen from them in recent times. Last season they scored 44 times from 38 games so to have half that tally already after 10 games is a really strong start. I think West Ham needs to be a little careful though because after 10 games last season they sat 5th in the league but it started to go downhill as they navigated their way through the late December/January period. For Watford it’s no doubt a difficult game for them given West Ham’s record so far but in their own right Watford are a difficult side to play. They are well structured which has led to an excellent defensive record for a newly promoted side conceding just the 10 goals. They’ll no doubt be boosted by their win over Stoke last week too. It’s difficult to go against West Ham winning here but I can’t help but feel Watford will be a more difficult prospect for them than some of the bigger scalps they have this season. West Ham have struggled for points against some of the lower sides which was shown in their draws with Norwich and Sunderland, and losses to Leicester and Bournemouth.

Predicted score: Draw 1-1
Best Bet: Under 2.5 goals at $1.74 (70%)
Next Best: 1st Half Draw at $2

West Brom ($2.75) versus Leicester ($2.62), Draw ($3.3)

Just like Watford and West Ham, this could be another good game to watch. West Brom have found some good form winning their last 2 whilst Leicester sit pretty comfortably in 5th just 3 points off leaders Manchester City. Perhaps the question mark on West Brom though is whether they can make it 3 in a row. Against a rampant Leicester on the counter attack I wouldn’t think so but they would certainly be capable of taking a point. Leicester should be pretty fresh though despite their Capital One Cup fixture during the week with Ranieri making a number of rotations no doubt with a view to this week’s fixture. Based on their form this season it’s difficult to go past Leicester taking at least a point and possibly the 3 in this match. West Brom will make it difficult but it’s hard to go against a Leicester side that are undefeated away from home with West Brom losing 3 of their 5 home games this season.

Predicted score: Leicester 2-1
Best Bet: Over 2.5 goals $1.91 (80%)
Next Best: Leicester to win either half at $1.77

Everton ($1.5) versus Sunderland ($7.5), Draw ($4)

Sunderland were perhaps a little fortunate to get the 3 points last week after the game turned in their favour after Newcastle had Coloccini sent off but a win is a win and it was a much needed one. They’ll need everything they can get ahead of this meeting at Everton. Whilst they may have lost their last 2 games, Everton will be raring to go to get back on the winner’s list and they’ll be looking at this one as an opportunity for 3 points. They had a tough run in their last 2 games against Man United and Arsenal so I’d expect them to bounce back because before those 2 games they were on a run of 7 games undefeated in all competitions. They will of course have to manage themselves well after an extra time win over Norwich in the Capital One Cup during the week so we will no doubt see a few changes for this match. In the end though I think Everton will win this as Sunderland have to show a lot more before they can convince that they can win 2 in a row.

Predicted score: Everton 2-0
Best Bet: Everton to win to Nil at $2.52 (75%)
Next Best: Both teams to score – No at $1.91

Southampton ($1.53) versus Bournemouth ($6), Draw ($4.33)

Conceding 10 goals in 2 games is not ideal preparation for Bournemouth ahead of their Southampton encounter. They were fairly poor defensively last week against Tottenham where Tottenham pounced and converted on almost every mistake. It was strange in some ways though because Bournemouth played ok in patches but were let down by some defensive mistakes and pretty poor goalkeeping on Boruc’s behalf. Southampton will make them pay for any mistakes as well this week as they’ve been in pretty good form. Undefeated in their last 4 with wins over Chelsea and Swansea backed up by a draw with Leicester and Liverpool. They have been patchy at home with 2 wins and 2 losses from 5 games but it’s difficult to see Bournemouth getting anything from this given their away record shows 4 losses from 5 conceding 14 goals in the process.

Predicted score: Southampton 3-1
Best Bet: Southampton to Win and Over 2.5 goals at $2.3 (80%)
Next Best: Both teams to score – Yes at $1.72

Tottenham ($1.44) versus Aston Villa ($7.5), Draw ($4.5)

Tottenham and Aston Villa round out week 11 fixtures and again Tottenham face a side that has just sacked their manager after they faced Liverpool and Jurgen Klopp after Rodgers was sacked. The position can’t be any worse for Villa sitting bottom of the table with the 4 points and without a point since their draw with Sunderland on 30th August. It’s a mammoth task from here to escape relegation even if there are 28 games to go. I’m sure there will be a response from Villa this week after Sherwood was given the flick as we often see when managers are fired but I don’t think it will be enough for them to get a shock win over Tottenham here. It’s clear that Villa have suffered from the loss of some of their best players over the summer through the likes of Delph, Vlaar, and Benteke. Tottenham are on a really good run too having not lost since the opening day and will be confident heading into a home game on the back of an away 5-1 rout over Bournemouth. Add to that a confident Harry Kane after his Hat trick last week and I think the cards are stacked against Villa here. It’s also hard to see where the goals are going to come from for Villa given they’ve scored just the 9 times this season with Tottenham conceding just the 8 in their 10 games.

Predicted score: Tottenham 3-0
Best Bet: Tottenham to win to Nil at $2.31 (80%)
Next Best: Tottenham half-time/full-time at $2.1 



As an Australian growing up AFL was always my no.1 sport especially given I was lucky enough to grow up a few blocks from Carlton’s home ground, Princes Park, where I was lucky enough to attend many games. That’s where my passion for sport began but it was until the early 2000’s when I discovered a real passion for football with the Socceroos 2002 World Cup qualifiers against Uruguay accelerating my football journey. From there I began to follow the Premier League and haven’t looked back since. These days I’m a massive Tottenham fan where I’ve enjoyed many sleepless nights religiously watching them without missing a game despite many roller coaster feelings. There’s just something magical and glamorous when you watch the EPL and knowing the Profits owners Drew and Euan through studies, I’m now lucky enough to be able to share my thoughts on each game each week of the season.

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