English Premier League – Match Day 11 – 2016

English Premier League - Football

It’s week 11 of the English Premier League and with it we see another week where it’s tight at the top of the table. Manchester City edge out Arsenal and Liverpool on goal difference but really there is very little between these 3 sides right now. Arsenal have the tougher of the fixtures of the 3 this week but their arch rivals Tottenham are not in great form right now so week 12 could be just as close. The other end of the table isn’t as close given Sunderland look like they’ll be rooted to the bottom for quite some time yet. 2 points from 10 games is a horrible start and it’s difficult to see where they’ll get their first 3 points of the season or even their next point for that matter.

Head to Head Multi Bet: Manchester City win ($1.25), Arsenal win ($1.95), Leicester win ($1.75), Southampton win ($1.67) = $7.12
Match Day 10 Best Bet: Manchester City Half-Time/Full-Time at $1.67

**Odds from Sportsbet as at 5th November

Bournemouth vs Sunderland   

The Cherries may have lost last time out on the road to Middlesbrough, but a visit from Sunderland looks a favourable match right now. There’s always the danger that Sunderland are just one match away from a win, but Bournemouth have been in good home form this season. From 5 games they have 3 wins and a draw and that alone without looking at Sunderland’s horrific form this season should set them up for a positive result here. The desperation for a win for Sunderland should mean opportunities for Bournemouth but whilst there may be a few goals, Bournemouth look the likelier.

Predicted score: Bournemouth 2-1
Best Bet: Bournemouth to lead at Half-Time at $1.61 (75%)
Next Best: Bournemouth to win at $1.61

Burnley vs Crystal Palace  

Palace face another difficult match this week after their loss to Liverpool last time out. It was their 3rd loss in a row and they’ll no doubt be keen to bounce back against Burnley here. That will of course have it’s own challenges though as Burnley managed to secure a fantastic scoreless draw at Manchester United last time out. Of course such a result will be difficult to back up but the feel good factor and boost from that result could be enough to see a point at least this week against Palace. Burnley have played 6 times at home and conceded just the 4 times and with Palace not exactly the most free scoring of sides, this could be a low scoring affair.

Predicted score: Draw 1-1
Best Bet: Under 2.5 goals at $1.66 (85%)
Next Best: Crystal Palace to win either half at $1.67

Manchester City vs Middlesbrough  

The League leaders got back to winning ways last time out when they thumped West Brom 4-0 and then followed that up with a 3-1 win over Barcelona in the Champions League. Those results ended a streak of 6 games without a win in all competitions and they look in strong form now to make it 3 in a row in all competitions against Middlesbrough this weekend. Middlesbrough themselves ended a run of 8 games without a win in all competitions when they beat Bournemouth at home last weekend. That may give them some relief to climb up to 15th on the table, but Manchester City look too good right now with the task of keeping the likes of Aguero, De Bruyne and Gundogan quiet perhaps just too much right now.

Predicted score: Manchester City 3-0
Best Bet: Manchester City Half-Time/Full-Time at $1.67 (90%)
Next Best: Manchester City Handicap -2 at $2.63

West Ham vs Stoke   

The Potters will be aiming to make it 4 in a row when they head to West Ham this week and if they achieve that it will be the first time they have done so since 2011. They’ve won 3 in a row a little more regularly in that time but against West Ham away it may be a little bit of a stretch. West Ham haven’t been in the greatest of form this season but before their 2-0 loss to Everton last week they had put together 2 wins against Palace and Sunderland. This will be a step up in competition given Stoke’s run of good form but they should be competitive enough for a point. The loss of Arnautovic to suspension and the continued injury doubts of Shaqiri give them a chance.

Predicted score: Draw 1-1
Best Bet: Half-time Draw at $2.1 (75%)
Next Best: Double chance Stoke at $1.72

Chelsea vs Everton  

Both had wins last week but Chelsea in particular look in the better form right now after 4 wins on the trot. The form of Diego Costa up front has been a driving factor in their results after 8 goals already this season. That sort of form is going to be difficult for Everton to keep contained but they so far have had a really strong season themselves with just the two losses from 10 games to sit in 6th position. If they have struggled anywhere this season though it has been on the road. Their away form has been mixed with 2 wins, a draw and 2 losses and an away trip to Chelsea looks like it will be a difficult one.

Predicted score: Chelsea 2-1
Best Bet: Over 2.5 goals at $1.64 (80%)
Next Best: Chelsea to win at $1.57

Arsenal vs Tottenham   

The marquee fixture of the week in that of the North London derby should bring plenty of action. Arsenal of course have been in great form lately and look set to end a run of 4 winless results against their arch rivals in the league. The last time they beat Tottenham in the league was back in March 2014 but right now they look the ones to beat. Tottenham might be undefeated this season in the league but their run of draws in their last 3 league games has left many questions on their short term form. The absence of Harry Kane through injury has left them short of options up front as Janssen finds his feet in a new league. Whilst he may make some sort of return this weekend, it’s too soon to expect big things straight away. Add to this the absence of their best defender in Alderweireld along with the injury absence of Erik Lamela and Tottenham look set for potentially their first league loss of the season. There is of course the argument that a derby could shake them into some form but right now it’s difficult to Arsenal losing this one.

Predicted score: Arsenal 2-1
Best Bet: Arsenal to win at $1.95 (80%)
Next Best: Both teams to score – Yes at $1.62

Liverpool vs Watford  

Liverpool are in the sort of form at the moment that makes it difficult seeing them lose to anyone and that is bad news for Watford. Liverpool have only lost once this season and whilst they still concede a few too many goals, they knock in plenty of their own. Currently averaging 2.4 goals a game, they look an immense attacking force and too much for most sides to handle right now. Watford have been pretty good this season to sit in 7th place and their away form warrants more respect after just the 1 loss from 5 games. The problem is they haven’t really had a result against any of the bigger sides away from home and this should be their 2nd away loss this season.

Predicted score: Liverpool 3-1
Best Bet: Over 2.5 goals at $1.5 (95%)
Next Best: Over 3.5 goals at $2.3

Hull vs Southampton   

Both sides have decent injury lists but the problem for Hull is that they can’t afford to have the amount of injuries that they do given how thin their squad is already. They’re now at 6 league losses in a row and this is pointing strongly towards 7 in a row. Southampton were in some really good form before losing to Chelsea last time out and although their away form has been questionable this season, they look the likelier of the two. One positive on their away form is that they are undefeated in their last 3 and the rouble for Hull is that they just don’t have the form or squad to compete right now.

Predicted score: Southampton 2-0
Best Bet: Southampton to win at $1.67 (80%)
Next Best: Southampton to win to Nil at $2.6

Swansea vs Manchester United

The pressure continues to build for Swansea but there’s no better time to get a win then to get it when Manchester United come to play. United have been on their own poor run with just 1 win from their last 6. Swansea have a great record over United recently as well with the last two meetings at Swansea ending in 2-1 wins. The problem though ahead of their attempt at making it 3 in a row at home against United is that their defence looks unsettled and inconsistent. 18 goals conceded in 10 games suggests things aren’t going to plan and with United on the hunt for goals after scoring just 13 times this season, this could be a tough ask for Swansea. In saying that, United have been less than convincing so it’s a good idea to approach this match with some caution.

Predicted score: Manchester United 2-1
Best Bet: Half-time Draw at $2.2 (70%)
Next Best: Over 2.5 goals at $1.76

Leicester vs West Brom   

The final match of the weekend sees Leicester hosting West Brom and whilst it’s no glamour tie, it should be a pretty competitive match. The Baggies will be keen to rebound from the thumping they took against Manchester City last time out. They’ve been stingy on the road defensively with just the 5 goals conceded and they’ll keep it the same against Leicester here. The reigning Champions have been in good home form this season having not lost a game and conceding just the 2 goals. That should continue here and they should have just enough to get their fourth win of the season. The added difficulty for the baggies is the loss of Nacer Chadli to injury. He’s added a huge amount to them going forward through goals and assists and they’ll miss that a lot against Leicester.

Predicted score: Leicester 1-0
Best Bet: Under 2.5 goals at $1.66 (85%)
Next Best: Leicester to win at $1.75

Author

mm

Goal

As an Australian growing up AFL was always my no.1 sport especially given I was lucky enough to grow up a few blocks from Carlton’s home ground, Princes Park, where I was lucky enough to attend many games. That’s where my passion for sport began but it was until the early 2000’s when I discovered a real passion for football with the Socceroos 2002 World Cup qualifiers against Uruguay accelerating my football journey. From there I began to follow the Premier League and haven’t looked back since. These days I’m a massive Tottenham fan where I’ve enjoyed many sleepless nights religiously watching them without missing a game despite many roller coaster feelings. There’s just something magical and glamorous when you watch the EPL and knowing the Profits owners Drew and Euan through studies, I’m now lucky enough to be able to share my thoughts on each game each week of the season.

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