English Premier League – Match Day 22

English Premier League - Football

Well there’s little doubt that week 21 was one of the best rounds of football this season. It had everything from Villa finally getting a win to the likes of the fairy tale that is Leicester getting an upset away from home at Tottenham to keep their unbelievable title chances alive. Add to that a fantastically entertaining 3-3 draw between Newcastle and Manchester United as well as Arsenal stuttering in their own tantalising 3-3 draw with Liverpool and there’s not much more you could want in a round of EPL. This week looks just as good on paper in terms of matchups. Arsenal face a tough trip away to Stoke as they look to keep ahead of Leicester (albeit they are only ahead on goal difference now), Chelsea host Everton after a tough draw at home to West Brom, whilst there will no doubt be a bit of interest in Villa hosting Leicester – can they possibly beat a Leicester side high on confidence after their own confidence boosting win over Palace last time out? I wouldn’t have thought so myself but who knows in this league.

**Odds from Sportsbet as at 16th January

Tottenham ($1.36) versus Sunderland ($8.5), Draw ($5)

A late and tough loss for Tottenham during the week against Leicester should see them bounce back fairly strong here against a relegation threatened Sunderland. If Tottenham had of won or drawn against Leicester then it may have given Sunderland a bit more a chances but I dare say Spurs will be eager to make a point at home for this one. They need to as well if they are to stay in the top 4 for the short term as West Ham are closing in quick after winning their last 3. Whilst there’s no doubt Spurs will be going for it here, Sunderland won’t be short of confidence. They’ve won their last 2 games but I just can’t see them making it 3 in a row and against a side that isn’t easily beaten.

Predicted score: Tottenham 3-0
Best Bet: Tottenham Half-time/Full-time at $1.91 (85%)
Next Best: Tottenham to win both halves at $3.1

Bournemouth ($1.85) versus Norwich ($4.5), Draw ($3.5)

A win for Bournemouth this weekend and they’ll jump ahead of their opponents this weekend in Norwich. They’ll need to overcome a bit of an inconsistent patch of form where they have lost 2 and drawn 2 of their last 4 games, but they may have an opportunity against a Norwich side that has been poor on the road this season. From 11 games, Norwich have taken just the 8 points and I’m not so confident that they’ll turn it around here. Bournemouth had a bit of a chance to settle in some of their new signings against West Ham last time out and I think they’ll be the better for it. Iturbe is a real talent and could make a start here whilst Afobe had a solid debut in a tough game. Expect Bournemouth to bounce back here in a tight contest.

Predicted score: Bournemouth 2-1
Best Bet: Over 2.5 goals at $2.04 (80%)
Next Best: Half-time draw at $2

Chelsea ($1.83) versus Everton ($4.5), Draw ($3.6)

Both sides could only manage draws last week but the results would have had different meanings for both sides. For Everton a draw against Manchester City away is a pretty good result whilst Chelsea would have been disappointed to let one slip at home to West Brom. Chelsea will have a bit of pressure to get a win here too and whilst Everton haven’t won a lot away from home, they have only lost once on the road this season. Defensively they’ve only conceded the 9 goals on the road which is quite a contrast to their 20 goals conceded at home which suggests they don’t really push to win away from home. I can’t see it any different here and I think once again they’ll make it difficult for their opponents to score. The way Chelsea are going at the moment they still really aren’t showing the Chelsea of last season so whilst a win might be possible, a draw is just as good a chance here.

Predicted score: Draw 1-1
Best Bet: Half-time Draw at $2.1 (70%)
Next Best: Under 2.5 goals at $2

Manchester City ($1.4) versus Crystal Palace ($8), Draw ($4.75)

The season has been so open that Manchester City’s inconsistency hasn’t harmed their title chances just yet being just 3 points off the top. A home draw to Everton during the week though wasn’t ideal preparation for this game against Palace either but they should bounce back given Palace haven’t really been in the best of form themselves. Palace haven’t won in their last 4 games losing their last 2. Their defeat to Villa during the week would have been one of their more disappointing ones of the season given the predicament that Villa are in at the moment. The loss of Bolasie to injury I think has had an effect on their form. In fact since his last appearance in their 2-1 win over Stoke before Christmas, Palace haven’t scored in their last 4 games. I think Palace will no doubt be competitive here but I’m expecting Manchester City to bounce back from their disappointing draw with Everton.

Predicted score: Manchester City 2-0
Best Bet: Manchester City -1 Handicap at $2 (75%)
Next Best: Manchester City to win to Nil at $2.3

Newcastle ($2.62) versus West Ham ($2.75), Draw ($3.25)

The Hammers have found their way again winning their last 3 games as they head to Newcastle to try and make it 4 in a row and put some real pressure on 4th placed Tottenham who are just 1 point ahead. For Newcastle they’ve been really competitive recently but just haven’t been able to get the wins they need to claw their way out of the relegation zone. For as competitive as they’ve been though, I can’t really see West Ham slowing down at the moment. They don’t have a lot of injuries at the moment either and with the likes of Payet back in the side I think they’ll be hard to beat here. West Ham too have only lost twice away from home this season and I doubt they’ll get their 3rd away loss here.

Predicted score: West Ham 2-1
Best Bet: Both teams to score – Yes at $1.72 (80%)
Next Best: West Ham to win at $2.75

Southampton ($1.75) versus West Brom ($5.5), Draw ($3.4)

After losing 2 games after their incredible 4-0 thumping over Arsenal, Southampton broke through for another good win during the week over Watford. It gives them a boost ahead of their meeting with West Brom this weekend who themselves are in pretty good form having won 2 and draw 1 of their last 3 games. Southampton’s issue this season has really come down to consistency. When they beat Arsenal 4-0 you would have thought they could have built something off that but losses to West Ham and Norwich brought them back to reality. Their win over Watford last time out was a really good win because Watford have been great this season but there’s not a lot of confidence that they can back it up to make it 2 in a row. West Brom are pretty competitive away from home having lost just 3 times on the road this season so I think they can get something from this one.

Predicted score: Draw 1-1
Best Bet: Under 2.5 goals at $1.62 (85%)
Next Best: Double chance West Brom at $2.1

Aston Villa ($3.6) versus Leicester ($2.15), Draw ($3.25)

Villa finally had a break through win during the week and against a good side too in Crystal Palace. It creates an interesting meeting with Leicester who are becoming genuine title contenders with every week as they continue to win. It’s difficult though to see Villa making it 2 in a row and especially against a Leicester side that has such great belief in the way they play their football. I feel the win for Villa will give them a bit more purpose and belief in how they play but right now there’s really no point in betting against Leicester as they just seem to find a way anyway they can at the moment. Villa still have such a long way to go being 8 points off safety that the mental hurdle is still there despite such a much needed win.

Predicted score: Leicester 2-0
Best Bet: Leicester to win at $2.15 (90%)
Next Best: 2nd Half to have most goals at $2.1

Liverpool ($2.3) versus Manchester United ($3.3), Draw ($3.2)

Two great rivals face off again this weekend with Man United heading to Liverpool. Neither side is in great form but it shouldn’t stop this from being a good game. United were held at Newcastle during the week in a 3-3 draw whilst Liverpool had their own 3-3 draw at home to league leaders Arsenal. For Liverpool it highlighted for me that they still have issues at the back by letting through 3 goals but their injuries of late won’t help their cause. The addition of Caulker on loan will help ease some of the injury stress but he’s just a short term solution at this stage. I think United, despite only getting a draw at Newcastle, will be boosted in that they got some goals again and in particular Rooney getting a brace. For me though I just can’t see either side winning and I think we might be in for a draw. United might sit back a little and look to attack Liverpool on the break whilst I think Liverpool will be a little more positive after their fight against Arsenal last week which should give them a bit of confidence.

Predicted score: Draw 1-1
Best Bet: Both teams to score – Yes at $1.83 (75%)
Next Best: Half-Tie draw at $1.91

Stoke ($4.2) versus Arsenal ($1.91), Draw ($3.5)

Another really tough game for Arsenal this week and one that they really need to win with Leicester hot on their heels in the title race. A loss here could see Leicester take top spot again if they win against Villa and I think that’s pressure that Arsenal don’t want. I don’t think we can discount Arsenal too much after that tough draw with Liverpool during the week and I can see them bouncing back despite coming up against a Stoke side that has been good this season. A real positive for Arsenal too is that Sanchez is close to making a return and could make a substitute appearance here. A blow for Stoke though is that Shaqiri may miss again through injury and despite them winning without him against Norwich during the week, I think they’ll miss his potential explosiveness against such a top side this week. With that said I still think Stoke will make a game of this but Arsenal should be winning come the final whistle.

Predicted score: Arsenal 2-1
Best Bet: Over 2.5 goals at $1.99 (75%)
Next Best: Arsenal to win at $1.91



As an Australian growing up AFL was always my no.1 sport especially given I was lucky enough to grow up a few blocks from Carlton’s home ground, Princes Park, where I was lucky enough to attend many games. That’s where my passion for sport began but it was until the early 2000’s when I discovered a real passion for football with the Socceroos 2002 World Cup qualifiers against Uruguay accelerating my football journey. From there I began to follow the Premier League and haven’t looked back since. These days I’m a massive Tottenham fan where I’ve enjoyed many sleepless nights religiously watching them without missing a game despite many roller coaster feelings. There’s just something magical and glamorous when you watch the EPL and knowing the Profits owners Drew and Euan through studies, I’m now lucky enough to be able to share my thoughts on each game each week of the season.

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