2017 English Premier League – Match Day 29

English Premier League - Football

We’re in the final run home of the season with most sides having just 10 games to play with a few more 11 or 12 to go due to Cup fixtures in recent weeks. Chelsea are still way ahead and look out of sight and talk of a potential challenger will only be warranted if they string a couple of poor results together allowing the gap to close. The challenge is each of the chasing pack have their issues. Injuries are starting to hit Tottenham, Manchester City look a little defensively lacking whilst Liverpool and Arsenal look very inconsistent at the moment having lost 2 and 3 games respectively in their last 5. This could be a one of those weeks of interesting results where those expected to win just seem to fall apart.

Week 29 Best Bet: Manchester City vs Liverpool BTTS at $1.53

Head to Head Multi Bet: Chelsea Win ($1.62), Sunderland Win ($2.5), Crystal Palace Win ($1.95), Tottenham Win ($1.66) = $13.1

**Odds from Sportsbet as at 18th March

West Brom vs Arsenal

Things just look as though they are not all that comfortable at Arsenal at the moment and a tricky away trip to West Brom won’t be easy. Arsenal have lost 3 of their last 4 matches and away from home and whilst they’ve only lost 4 times on the road this season, those results have all come in their last 6 away trips. The Baggies have been in some pretty good form this season but have dropped off a little losing their last 2 matches but will certainly give Arsenal a run here.

Of the last 4 meetings at West Brom, Arsenal have won twice but only by a goal difference with West Brom winning 1 and drawing 1. The inconsistencies of Arsenal at the moment make them far from a sure thing here and regardless of the end result, this will be tight.

Predicted score: Draw 1-1

Best Bet: Under 2.5 goals at $2 (75%)

Next Best: Double Chance West Brom at $2.1

Stoke vs Chelsea

Chelsea have a massive 10 point lead at the moment so will continue to play with a great sense of freedom as a result. Stoke make for an interesting opponent having held Manchester City to a draw last time out away from home. Question is whether they can manage the same against a Chelsea side in cruise control. The likely answer there is no and they may find this a tad more difficult than against a Manchester City side that has their own inconsistencies at the moment.

Predicted score: Chelsea 2-0

Best Bet: Chelsea to win at $1.62 (90%)

Next Best: Under 2.5 goals at $1.82

West Ham vs Leicester

Leicester have amazingly made it through to the quarter finals of the Champions League but an away trip here to West Ham presents a different challenge. The reigning Champions seem as though they are focused solely on the Champions League and perhaps that’s fair enough given it was going to be a massive task securing top 4 again this season as a minimum. On form, Leicester look in good touch having also won their last 2 league games but it’s important to note that those results came at home. Away from home they still have a horrid record with just 3 points taken in 13 games. West Ham are certainly not the greatest home side this season though but Leicester’s record on the road and coming off such a great result against Sevilla during the week may be tough to back up here. Perhaps a draw looks the best bet with Leicester possessing some momentum at the moment and a renewed energy under a new manager.

Predicted score: Draw 2-2

Best Bet: Over 2.5 goals at $1.75 (85%)

Next Best: Half-Time Draw at $2.1

Sunderland vs Burnley

Sunderland are desperate for points given they sit currently 6 points off safety and a home match against Burnley could be a great kick start for their remaining run home in a bid for survival. Burnley look pretty much safe on the back of their incredible home record but away from home they have the worst record in the league with just 2 points. They also haven’t scored a lot of goals away from home with just 9 in 14 matches and may face a difficult task here against a Sunderland side that will be intent on getting the 3 points here. There may also be an element of a lack of motivation from Burnley here where their only real challenge will be to see if they can push for a top 10 finish. That push for a top 10 finish though will likely come on the back of their remaining home results.

Predicted score: Sunderland 1-0

Best Bet: Sunderland to win at $2.5 (80%)

Next Best: Under 2.5 goals at $1.65

Crystal Palace vs Watford

Wins against West Brom and Middlesbrough have pushed Palace out of the relegation zone in the last few weeks and given them some momentum into this week’s contest with Watford. They should be able to take that momentum and turn it into a positive result against Watford here who’ve not been that consistent away from home. Their last 6 away from home has produced just the 4 points along with 4 losses. They seem to struggle on the goal front when on the road with just 4 goals in those 6 matches and just 12 away from home all season. In saying that, Palace do have the worst home record in the league with just the 10 points taken but they may have turned the corner after their 1-0 win over Middlesbrough last time out at home. Premier League history between these two has been pretty close with their last 3 meetings resulting in a win each and a draw with no more than a goal separating them. This will be another close result following that trend.

Predicted score: Crystal Palace 1-0

Best Bet: Crystal Palace to win at $1.95 (75%)

Next Best: Under 2.5 goals at $1.68

Everton vs Hull

This match presents an interesting challenge for Everton but one that they should overcome. Hull are going to come out fighting given their current position in the relegation zone but they just haven’t shown enough away from home to get a result here with just 5 points taken from 14 away games this season. Their fight for survival will come from their remaining home matches. Everton have won their last 5 matches at home scoring 18 and conceding just the 3 and it looks unlikely this run will end here.

Predicted score: Everton 3-1

Best Bet: Over 2.5 goals at $1.78 (85%)

Next Best: Everton to win at $1.5

Bournemouth vs Swansea

The Cherries have built a little bit of momentum in recent matches with a drawn result at Manchester United and then a 3-2 win over West Ham ahead of their match here against Swansea. Swansea have done well to propel themselves out of the relegation zone in the last month or so but this will be a testy match. Their performances in recent matches suggest an element of inconsistency where in their last 6 they have won 3 and lost 3 but without stringing 2 wins together. Those 3 wins also all came at home with the following match away from home producing a loss. To be fair to them though, 2 of those losses came to Man City and Chelsea with the 3rd coming at Hull who are fighting for survival. Bournemouth don’t exactly have a lot left to play for apart from securing another 5-7 points to ensure their survival. Between the two, Swansea have a greater need right now for points so they should be able to get something out of this one.

Predicted score: Draw 2-2

Best Bet: Over 2.5 goals at $1.67 (80%)

Next Best: Both teams to score – Yes at $1.57

Middlesbrough vs Manchester United

Middlesbrough made the tough call of firing their manager in an effort to spark their team into action and secure their top flight status. It’s perhaps good timing ahead of a home match and against Manchester United who have been relatively inconsistent with 4 draws in their last 6 league matches. Perhaps it’s even better timing given the suspensions to Herrera and Ibrahimovic whilst the injury to Pogba will force United into a few more shuffles in their team line-up. There’s never been a greater opportunity for Middlesbrough to pick up a win against a big side. They’ll be right in this and whilst a win is still a big ask, a draw is a definite possibility which would give them great confidence ahead of their run home.

Predicted score: Draw 1-1

Best Bet: Half-Time Draw at $2 (70%)

Next Best: Both teams to score – Yes at $2.1

Tottenham vs Southampton

Tottenham are starting to pick up injuries with the latest an ankle injury to Harry Kane who had been on fire recently. In addition there is the continued absence of Danny Rose whilst Wanyama and Walker have little niggles. It will be interesting to see how Spurs line-up without Harry Kane though with Son scoring a hat-trick during the week against Millwall, he will surely start up front ahead of Janssen who found some confidence again with a goal from open play against Millwall. One thing that makes a very compelling case for Tottenham is they are still yet to lose a match at home with 12 wins and 2 draws from 14 matches. Tottenham have done this through similar absences from the likes of Kane through injury and it’s difficult to suggest that Southampton will come here and take something from this one. Southampton haven’t played a match since 5th March so whilst they may be fresher, they might also be lacking a bit of edge from a few weeks without competitive football.

Predicted score: Tottenham 2-1

Best Bet: Over 2.5 goals at $1.85 (85%)

Next Best: Tottenham to win at $1.66

Manchester City vs Liverpool

A great way to end the week’s fixtures is between top 4 rivals and this will be a close match. Manchester city have been a little sloppy in defence this season which opens up the door to a Liverpool side that certainly get themselves up for the big matches. Liverpool have lost 2 of their last 5 matches against Hull & Leicester but their 3 wins in those 5 matches have come against Arsenal, Tottenham and Burnley. An upset here would certainly not be out of the question for Liverpool and would keep them in the race for the title if Chelsea start to drop points in the run home. It’s a favourable record between these two for Liverpool as well with the Reds winning 4 of their last 5 meetings with City in all competitions. Seeing how Liverpool seem to always be up for the big matches, a draw at the least for Liverpool looks very likely.

Predicted score: Draw 2-2

Best Bet: Both teams to score – Yes at $1.53 (90%)

Next Best: Double Chance Liverpool at $1.8

 

Author

mm

Goal

As an Australian growing up AFL was always my no.1 sport especially given I was lucky enough to grow up a few blocks from Carlton’s home ground, Princes Park, where I was lucky enough to attend many games. That’s where my passion for sport began but it was until the early 2000’s when I discovered a real passion for football with the Socceroos 2002 World Cup qualifiers against Uruguay accelerating my football journey. From there I began to follow the Premier League and haven’t looked back since. These days I’m a massive Tottenham fan where I’ve enjoyed many sleepless nights religiously watching them without missing a game despite many roller coaster feelings. There’s just something magical and glamorous when you watch the EPL and knowing the Profits owners Drew and Euan through studies, I’m now lucky enough to be able to share my thoughts on each game each week of the season.

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