English Premier League – Match Day 36

English Premier League - Football

Leicester are almost there in what is one of the most unlikely of sporting triumphs in history. To come from where they have come and to need just 3 points from 3 games to seal the title is simply just incredible. A win over Manchester United this week would seal the title though it looks a really tough game and perhaps it may even be more fitting if they hold off for next week to win the title in front of a home crowd. Regardless though it looks a certainty.

**Odds from Sportsbet as at 30th April

Everton ($2.05) versus Bournemouth ($3.5), Draw ($3.6)

Everton have clearly not been playing very well and they really need to finish off the season strong for their fans. Bournemouth though have been pretty solid on the road this season and recent form sees them losing just once on the road in their last 6. They’re a likable side and they play with a lot of endeavour. That should serve them well to get something from this contest with Everton experiencing some shortages in defence. Coleman is set to miss through injury along with Phil Jagielka whilst Funes Mori misses again through suspension. That should create some chances for Bournemouth and for Everton it should create some nerves given they’ve taken just 4 points from their last 4 home games. It should detract from Everton’s own attacking threats though and whilst they’ve been a little goal shy lately they’re still more than capable on their day. Expect some goals in this one.

Predicted score: Draw 2-2
Best Bet: Over 2.5 goals at $1.6 (85%)
Next Best: Double chance Bournemouth at $1.72 

Newcastle ($2) versus Crystal Palace ($3.8), Draw ($3.5)

There’s fight yet in this Newcastle side and 5 points from their last 3 games including draws with Manchester City and Liverpool. That gives them plenty of momentum and belief in their fight for survival and as always this is a must win game. Palace lost to Manchester United last time out 2-0 making it 1loss in their last 5 games but they have also only won once in their last 5. The fact they are pretty much safe from any threat of relegation and in some ways I think they might really just be looking forward to the FA Cup Final against Manchester United at the end of the season. Newcastle will be difficult to bet here.

Predicted score: Newcastle 2-1
Best Bet: Newcastle to win at $2 (80%)
Next Best: Over 2.5 goals at $1.99

Stoke ($2.62) versus Sunderland ($2.8), Draw ($3.2)

Much like their fierce rivals Newcastle, Sunderland need to win and will be confident of taking something from Stoke coming off a 3-0 win over Norwich and a 0-0 draw at home to Arsenal. For Stoke they could just do with a positive result after 3 straight losses but they’re confidence looks shot after conceding 4 goals in each of their last 3 games thanks in large part to quality opposition and an extensive injury list. I’d expect Sunderland to again keep this tight in line with 5 of their last 6 games being under 2.5 goals. Stoke aren’t exactly scoring for fun at the moment so that trend should continue and it may just come down to a single goal deciding the winner here.

Predicted score: Sunderland 1-0
Best Bet: Under 2.5 goals at $1.73 (80%)
Next Best: Half Time Draw at $2

Watford ($1.67) versus Aston Villa ($5.5), Draw ($3.75)

Same old result for Aston Villa last time out with another loss but they did make some progress by actually getting on the scoreboard. They scored twice in a 4-2 loss against Southampton though it’s only their 3rd goal in their last 7 league games. It does suggest though that maybe they are playing a bit more with a weight off their shoulders and they’ll need to continue that if they want to finish the season off on a good note after being relegated. It should hopefully make for at least a good contest and one that Watford will hopefully participate in. they haven’t been in the greatest of form lately and are perhaps looking ahead to next season knowing they are safe from relegation. In some ways I think Villa may be more intent on a result here than Watford but at the same time Villa have been shocking on the road this season taking just 6 points so making it 7 points is still a tough ask.

Predicted score: Watford 2-1
Best Bet: Watford to win at $1.67 (85%)
Next Best: Both teams to score – Yes at $1.83

West Brom ($3.6) versus West Ham ($2.1), Draw ($3.4)

A great result for West Brom away at 2nd placed Tottenham earlier in the week but they have another tough one this week against the Hammers. West ham are chasing a top 5 spot with a top 4 spot looking a bit of a stretch now with a 8 point gap to close on Arsenal. As for this one this should be all West Ham. They still have something to be motivated about to finish the season where West Brom against Tottenham were probably more motivated to slow down their chances of winning the title ahead of Leicester. A win here for West Ham also puts the pressure on Manchester United who sit just 3 points ahead when they take on Leicester on Sunday. A win takes them ahead on goal difference which is something to play for. West Brom won’t make it easy though as they’ve only conceded 5 times in their last 6 home games. The flipside of this is that West Ham have scored 9 times in their last 4 away games so maybe there’ll be a few more goals in this one.

Predicted score: West Ham 2-1
Best Bet: Over 2.5 goals at $2.1 (75%)
Next Best: West Ham to win at $2.1

Arsenal ($1.29) versus Norwich ($11), Draw ($5.5)

Arsenal need to pick up their game if they want to finish top 3 because in their current 4th place with 3 games to go just won’t cut it with the fans. They’ve drawn 3 of their last 4 games and face another hungry side in Norwich this weekend who are eager for a point or more in their survival bid. For Norwich, survival is looking a big ask at the moment. After 2 straight wins they’ve now lost their last 2 and face some pretty tough opponents in their final 4 games. This weekend looks the toughest of the lot and would take a lot for Arsenal to drop points here despite not being overly convincing on recent form.

Predicted score: Arsenal 3-1
Best Bet: Arsenal to win and over 2.5 goals at $1.72 (85%)
Next Best: Arsenal to win both halves at $2.63

Swansea ($3) versus Liverpool ($2.4), Draw ($3.3)

There’s 3 games left until Swansea can go on holidays and it seems as though that’s how they are playing. They’ve been thumped in their last 2 games against Newcastle and Leicester and it could well be 3 time with Liverpool this week. Liverpool have 4 games to play and will still be eager to finish in the top 5. Liverpool have been good on the road recently too winning 4 of their last 6 and the current form Swansea are in this should be another win. They’ll be disappointed by their late 1st leg loss to Villarreal in the Europa League Semi’s but they need to stay in good form so a win here will help build some momentum again before the 2nd leg. With the 2nd leg at Anfield to follow next week there could be some changes to the side this week with some hungry youngsters coming in. That shouldn’t harm their chances too much as they did the same against Bournemouth recently and it worked.

Predicted score: Liverpool 2-1
Best Bet: Over 2.5 goals at $1.88 (85%)
Next Best: Liverpool to win at $2.4

Manchester United ($2.05) versus Leicester ($3.75), Draw ($3.4)

The question for this match is really who wants to win it more. Manchester United will be keen to try and finish top 4 if they can so they’ll be playing to win here whilst for Leicester a win seals their title though they can afford to drop points knowing that they just need 3 from their last 3 games. A draw too wouldn’t be a bad result for Leicester and seeing how they play they’ll be comfortable sitting back this weekend anyway to invite United to the attack and then look to counter. United aren’t in bad form either winning 4 of their last 5league games or 6 of their last 7 across all competitions. If Tottenham hadn’t of dropped points to West Brom last time out then I think Leicester would be under a little more pressure but the fact that they can afford to drop points here I think opens the door for United to get a point at least. They won’t admit it but I think Leicester might prefer winning the title at home against Everton next time out anyway.

Predicted score: Draw 1-1
Best Bet: Under 2.5 goals at $1.65 (85%)
Next Best: Double chance Leicester at $1.72 

Southampton ($2.75) versus Manchester City ($2.62), Draw ($3.3)

This is an interesting match mainly as it will be interesting to see the Manchester City XI that starts given they have a massive match next week against Real Madrid. At the same time though, City need to get a result here to also ensure they still finish in the top 4 because Manchester United aren’t that far off. Some players will definitely miss though through the injured David Silva and Yaya Toure. With the potential for some of their stars to be rested from the get go, it will give Southampton a chance. The Saints have been in good form as well winning 4 of their last 6 and will fancy their chances against a potentially weakened Manchester City. In saying that though, City will still be an attacking threat despite some of the bigger names getting a rest so goals won’t be too much of an issue. Southampton haven’t kept a clean sheet in their last 9 league games though so for me there’s some goals to be had in this game.

Predicted score: Draw 2-2
Best Bet: Over 2.5 goals at $1.81 (90%)
Next Best: Both teams to score – Ys at $1.62

Chelsea ($2.75) versus Tottenham ($2.5), Draw ($3.5)

A London derby to finish this weekend’s fixtures with Chelsea hosting Tottenham. It’s clear Chelsea don’t want Tottenham to win the title so they’ll be playing to win here. Even if Leicester win the title by beating Manchester United this weekend I don’t think Chelsea will be playing with any less motivation so this will be a tough game for Tottenham. In saying that though, it’s difficult to back Chelsea after such poor performances this season and on recent results have only won twice in their last 8 games in all competitions. That’s not a great foundation for a result this week and although it can be equally said of Tottenham after a poor home result against West Brom last time out, on form they are the better side and with the thought of a draw between Leicester and Manchester United, Tottenham will be going all out to win this game.

Predicted score: Tottenham 2-1
Best Bet: Over 2.5 goals at $1.77 (85%)
Next Best: Both teams to score – Yes at $1.62

Author

mm

Goal

As an Australian growing up AFL was always my no.1 sport especially given I was lucky enough to grow up a few blocks from Carlton’s home ground, Princes Park, where I was lucky enough to attend many games. That’s where my passion for sport began but it was until the early 2000’s when I discovered a real passion for football with the Socceroos 2002 World Cup qualifiers against Uruguay accelerating my football journey. From there I began to follow the Premier League and haven’t looked back since. These days I’m a massive Tottenham fan where I’ve enjoyed many sleepless nights religiously watching them without missing a game despite many roller coaster feelings. There’s just something magical and glamorous when you watch the EPL and knowing the Profits owners Drew and Euan through studies, I’m now lucky enough to be able to share my thoughts on each game each week of the season.

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