English Premier League – Match Day 38

English Premier League - Football

The final day of the 2015/16 English Premier League season has come and although it’s been an incredible season on multiple levels, it’s still going to be a little flat on the last day with not much left to be decided. The Title has been decided along with the Newcastle and Norwich being confirmed for relegation during the week when Sunderland beat Everton. The only thing really left to be decided is European places with particular focus on the two Manchester Clubs who will be fighting it out for 4th. Manchester City though will just need a draw against Swansea to secure 4th given they have a superior goal difference over their rivals. It may become a bit nervy for City though if Swansea manage to score first though you’d think most of the places are set at the moment. Regardless of there being little left to decide, let’s just hope we have some great football to watch with plenty of goals.
**Odds from Sportsbet as at 15th May

Arsenal ($1.14) versus Aston Villa ($17), Draw ($8.5)

This is a regulation fixture for Arsenal given Aston Villa will be keen for the season just to be over after their relegation was confirmed in April. Arsenal still have a little to play for in they’ll be hoping Tottenham slip up against Newcastle so that they can overtake them for 2nd spot. However that game ends up, for this one this should be a comfortable win for Arsenal. They’ll also be keen on securing a win in their final home game of the season to end things on a high.

Predicted score: Arsenal 3-0
Best Bet: Arsenal Half-Time/Full-Time at $1.5 (95%)
Next Best: Arsenal -2 Handicap at $2.1

Chelsea ($2.3) versus Leicester ($3), Draw ($3.5)

There was no title hangover for Leicester last weekend as they came out strongly to beat Everton 3-1 in their last home game of the season. There is a lot of confidence and feel good factor at the moment at Leicester and I don’t think they’ll be taking the foot off the pedal in this one. They’re clearly enjoying their football at the moment and with that they’re just going to go out and get the job done to finish what has been such a good season. Chelsea still haven’t really played that well to finish off the season winning just once in their last 6 games. I’m sure they’ll have a little bit of motivation to win their final home game but given this is against Leicester I don’t see that as a certainty by any means. If anything this should be an open and free flowing game so goals and a draw might be the best result.

Predicted score: Draw 2-2
Best Bet: Both teams to score – Yes at $1.53 (85%)
Next Best: Over 3.5 goals at $2.64

Everton ($1.73) versus Norwich ($4.5), Draw ($4)

With the announcement during the week of Martinez’s departure from Everton coupled with Norwich’s confirmation of being relegated, this game can only go one way. Norwich will be flat after they played their hearts out to beat Watford during the week in an effort to survive but with Sunderland beating Everton at the same time it meant their season was over. For Everton, they’ve been poor for most of the season but they have a chance to redeem some of those bad performances at home here and give their fans something to cheer about. Often when a manager is cast aside we see a response from that side the following match and we should see that here.

Predicted score: Everton 2-0
Best Bet: Everton to win at $1.73 (80%)
Next Best: Everton to lead at Half-Time at $2.25

Manchester United ($1.4) versus Bournemouth ($7.5), Draw ($5)

A win for United will be the focus here as they hope that Manchester City stumble against Swansea. They’ll need Manchester City lose though because a draw in that match won’t be enough to secure a top 4 spot. For me this one comes down to whether Bournemouth can win this. At their best and if United are having an off day it’s probably possible but with the motivation levels probably being a little higher for United, I don’t see that happening. United will win this but it really comes down to whether it will be a big win or just a narrow result.

Predicted score: Manchester United 2-0
Best Bet: Manchester United to lead at Half-Time at $1.83 (70%)
Next Best: Under 2.5 goals at $2.21

Newcastle ($4.5) versus Tottenham ($1.75), Draw ($3.9)

This game would have been a lot different if Sunderland hadn’t of secured survival during the week at Newcastle’s expense. With that result, Newcastle will be a little flat after showing a lot of fight in their short time under Benitez. Tottenham would have been more vulnerable as well with the absence of some key players in Dembele and Alli as well as some poor results in their last 3 games. Tottenham have won just twice in their last 6 games with their last 3 producing 2 draws and a loss. Coming up against a Newcastle side still in the hunt for survival will have proved a difficult task but now that they can’t survive it makes things a little different. Tottenham will see this as a win and I don’t think Newcastle have any chance of winning this. A draw for Tottenham will secure 2nd place and they will get that at a minimum.

Predicted score: Tottenham 2-0
Best Bet: Tottenham to win at $1.75 (80%)
Next Best: Both Teams to Score – No at $2.3

Southampton ($1.3) versus Crystal Palace ($10), Draw ($5.3)

The Saints are finishing the season off strongly having won their last 3 which has included wins over Manchester City and Tottenham. They should be able to make it 4 in a row to finish the season especially given Crystal Palace will be looking ahead to next weekend’s FA Cup final against Manchester United. Even if the FA Cup final wasn’t going to be a factor for Southampton, I’d still expect them to find this a little too tough. Southampton are in form and are scoring plenty of goals at the moment whilst Palace have been struggling in that area with just 4 goals in their last 6 games.

Predicted score: Southampton 3-1
Best Bet: Over 2.5 goals at $1.65 (85%)
Next Best: Southampton to lead at Half-Time at $1.72

Stoke ($3.25) versus West Ham ($2.1), Draw ($3.7)

Another game for Stoke to get through and then they can go on holidays. That seems like the goal at the moment anyway having taken just the 2 points in their last 6 games. Depending on results, they’ll still finish in the top 10 with Swansea their only real threat if they manage to upset Manchester City. For this final game though, they face a West Ham side that still has a top 5 spot to play for if Manchester United slip up against Bournemouth. The Hammers will have some momentum after their fightback against Manchester United during the week when they came from 2-1 down to win 3-2 in what was a fitting finish for their final game at the Boleyn Ground before playing at the Olympic Stadium from next season. I think if Stoke had something more to play for they’d be a chance in this game to take a point but West Ham are in good form at the moment and I don’t see that changing.

Predicted score: West Ham 2-1
Best Bet: West Ham to win at $2.1 (80%)
Next Best: West Ham to win either half at $1.59

Swansea ($6) versus Manchester City ($1.53), Draw ($4.33)

Swansea should be competitive in their final game of the season having won their last 2 games but Manchester City will be difficult to beat. Manchester City will need to make sure there’s no upset from Swansea because a loss could mean dropping out of the top 4 if Manchester United win so I’d expect them to be switched back on to finish the season. There’s one thing that really puts this in Manchester City’s favour though, and that is the resting of Sigurdsson, Williams, and Fabianski. All 3 have been given time off ahead of their Euro 2016 involvement and with all 3 very important players to their line-up I’d expect Manchester City to take full advantage of that.

Predicted score: Manchester City 3-0
Best Bet: Manchester City to win at $1.53 (95%)
Next Best: Manchester City to win both halves at $3.6

Watford ($2) versus Sunderland ($3.75), Draw ($3.5)

There should be a bit of a feel good factor in this game especially from Sunderland given they confirmed their survival during the week with a fine win over Everton. For Watford, they copped a loss to a determined Norwich side during the week who were still hopeful of their own Premier League survival. Watford though really haven’t been in the greatest of form lately and even though it’s their final home game of the season, a win looks beyond them. In saying that, I can see Sunderland not being as determined for a win either now that they have secured their survival. That’s not to say they won’t play to win as they won’t be as tense as previous games but a draw may be a fitting way for both these sides to finish off the season.

Predicted score: Draw 1-1
Best Bet: Under 2.5 goals at $2.15 (75%)
Next Best: Half-Time Draw at $2.2

West Brom ($2.4) versus Liverpool ($2.87), Draw ($3.5)

There’s no doubt the line-up that Liverpool will be putting out will be impacted by the upcoming Europa League final. It shouldn’t make them any less competitive as seen in recent weeks when they have rotated heavily but whether it’s enough to take a win on the road at a somewhat tough place to take points remains to be seen. At the same time though, West Brom haven’t won in the league since the start of March when they beat Manchester United so winning is a bit foreign at the moment. It will probably continue to be foreign here but a draw looks a likely one. Liverpool will still be competitive despite the numerous changes expected to be made but it shouldn’t be enough to affect their chances of at least getting a point.

Predicted score: Draw 1-1
Best Bet: Both teams to score – Yes at $1.57 (80%)
Next Best: West Brom to win either half at $1.69 



As an Australian growing up AFL was always my no.1 sport especially given I was lucky enough to grow up a few blocks from Carlton’s home ground, Princes Park, where I was lucky enough to attend many games. That’s where my passion for sport began but it was until the early 2000’s when I discovered a real passion for football with the Socceroos 2002 World Cup qualifiers against Uruguay accelerating my football journey. From there I began to follow the Premier League and haven’t looked back since. These days I’m a massive Tottenham fan where I’ve enjoyed many sleepless nights religiously watching them without missing a game despite many roller coaster feelings. There’s just something magical and glamorous when you watch the EPL and knowing the Profits owners Drew and Euan through studies, I’m now lucky enough to be able to share my thoughts on each game each week of the season.

Leave a Reply