Another big weekend of EPL action beckons with Week 11 kicking off with a big matchup between Liverpool and Chelsea. The build up to this one has been around the infamous Gerrard slip that had a fair impact on Liverpool’s title chances last season but they have a long way to go to get close to their form last season. Let’s just hope we get a competitive performance from Liverpool this weekend.
**Odds from Sportsbet as at 8th November
Liverpool ($3.2) versus Chelsea ($2.3), Draw ($3.3)
Great matchup to kick off the weekend’s football with Liverpool hosting Chelsea though I’m not sure how good of a spectacle this will be with Liverpool struggling this season. Liverpool have won just the one game in their last 5 in all competitions with their most recent premier league loss against Newcastle away. Things just haven’t clicked since the departure of Suarez and I dare say this will be a bumpy season for them until they can build up some cohesion and confidence in their play. Chelsea on the other hand are flying and are undefeated in 10 premier league games this season. Add to this that they average 2.6 goals per game and only concede 1 per game they are undoubtedly the title favourites right now with their main rivals this season, Manchester City, 6 points off the pace. For me this seems like an easy call for Chelsea to walk away with the 3 points here. It would be a massive result if Liverpool came out and beat Chelsea but I can’t see that happening just yet. Should be a relatively closely fought game but Chelsea should win.
Predicted score: Chelsea 2-0
Best Bet: Chelsea to win at $2.3 is value that’s too hard to ignore (80%)
Next Best: Exactly 2 or 3 goals at $2.01
Burnley ($2.5) versus Hull ($2.87), Draw ($3.3)
Not much luck has gone Burnley’s way this season as they get ready to take on Hull this weekend. They currently sit rooted to the bottom of the table 5 points off safety and have a lot of work to do if they are to survive this season. Hull have had a really tough run of games over their last 5 playing Man City, Crystal Palace, Arsenal, Liverpool, and Southampton. With games against Tottenham, Man United and Everton to follow this one, this is surely going to be a must win game for Hull to pick up some points. I think the key for me has been that although Hull have had a tough run, they’ve been really competitive over that run as well taking points off Arsenal and Liverpool whilst also keeping in touch with Man City in the first half despite losing. Hull have a fair few key injuries as well which hasn’t seem to have hampered them too much and although Burnley will put up a fight I think Hull will win here.
Predicted score: Hull 1-0
Best Bet: Draw No Bet – Hull at $2.07 (75%)
Next Best: Under 2.5 goals at $1.68
Manchester United ($1.3) versus Crystal Palace ($10.5), Draw ($5.5)
Manchester United take on Palace this week in what looks to be an intriguing matchup mainly for the key injuries that United will once again need to deal with in defence. With Chris Smalling suspended and Rojo injured, United’s defence is looking pretty soft when you also consider injuries to Phil Jones and Jonny Evans. It’s not to say though that Palace don’t have their own problems with captain Mile Jedinak suspended for this one who has once again been their best player this season. it’s a big blow for their midfield with Jedinak 3rd in the league for tackles and 2nd for interceptions so I think they’ll miss his commanding presence in midfield which could spell danger with the likes of Di Maria running around. Manchester United’s frailties in defence opens up the door for Palace but I think United may just have too much firepower up front to ensure they get the job done.
Predicted score: Manchester United 2-1
Best Bet: Over 2.5 goals at $1.58 (85%)
Next Best: Both teams to score – Yes at $1.91
Southampton ($1.44) versus Leicester ($7), Draw ($4.75)
The surprise packets of 2014/15 continue to surprise and also make us question whether they have the potential to maintain their run of form. Southampton have been excellent this season considering their issues off the field during the transfer window but they continue to perform and good on them too. They take on Leicester at home this weekend as they look to secure win number 8 for the season. I think the easy thing to forget about Southampton here is that their defensive record is unbelievable. They’ve conceded just 5 times in their 10 games which for a relatively new defensive line-up with new faces Forster, Bertrand, and Alderweireld blending in seamlessly. They also lead the league in tackles per game by a pretty healthy margin too which tells me they are pretty relentless in their attempts to win the ball back and is probably one of the main reasons why they have been so successful. If they can keep compiling points against the smaller sides then we could well be seeing Southampton in for a massive chance of top 4. There’s a long way to go though and they need to start with Leicester here who are coming off 3 straight losses. Southampton should win here at home.
Predicted score: Southampton 2-0
Best Bet: Southampton to win at $1.44 (90%)
Next Best: Both teams to score – No at $1.91
West Ham ($1.75) versus Aston Villa ($5), Draw ($3.6)
West Ham are another of those sides that have outperformed expectations this season and sit in 5th. They take on Aston Villa who are in a bit of trouble in 16th position and losing their last 6 games. Add to this the red card of Christian Benteke last week against Tottenham and it looks like they’ll have a tough road ahead in the short term at least. Benteke is a big blow for Villa as he was looking extremely dangerous against Tottenham and was perhaps a little unlucky to not score a couple of goals. If he had of his tempers may not have flared and he may well have been playing this weekend. It’s good news for West Ham though because they are flying winning 4 of their last 6 and looking to build on that against Villa. Without Benteke, I think Villa will struggle to score as they have over their last 6 games scoring just the once against Tottenham. West Ham aren’t exactly the best defence in the league but they should have little to worry about here.
Predicted score: West Ham 3-0
Best Bet: West Ham to win at $1.75 (85%)
Next Best: Exactly 2 or 3 goals at $1.99
QPR ($6) versus Manchester City ($1.51), Draw ($4.5)
Manchester City have had a bit of a tough run in recent weeks losing 3 of their last 4 in all competitions with their latest against CSKA Moscow in the Champion’s league sure to demand a response this weekend against QPR. QPR themselves have had a tough first 10 games of the season with just the two wins registered and they have a lot of work to do from here to survive. They’ve also struggled against the big sides and although City haven’t been in the greatest of form lately I don’t think they’ll have too much of a problem getting the win here. QPR have conceded the fifth most shots per game this season at 14.9 and coming up against an attack in Man City that leads the league for shots per game looks like it could be trouble. City will want to be ruthless here and I think they will be.
Predicted score: Manchester City 4-0
Best Bet: Manchester City to win at $1.51 (95%)
Next Best: Man City to win & Over 2.5 goals at $2
Sunderland ($3.8) versus Everton ($2), Draw ($3.5)
Interesting match here with Sunderland hosting Everton this week. Sunderland have done pretty well so far this season but need to convert a few of their 5 draws into wins to really have an impact. Everton have stuttered a little compared to their usual high standards but are starting to build into some decent form and are now undefeated over their past 5 games in all competitions. They are coming off a strong 3-0 win over Lille in the Europa League as well which should give them plenty of confidence heading into this one. I think one of the issues for Everton this season is that they have controlled the ball a lot sitting in 3rd for total possession but have struggled to defend. They’ve conceded 17 goals already in 10 games which is not like Everton at all. Last season they conceded 39 across 38 games so they’re already looking like surpassing that quite easily. Of course the injuries in defence haven’t helped so they can only get better as the season goes on I’m sure. Difficult to completely write off Sunderland at home but I think they have a lot more work to do than Everton here.
Predicted score: Everton 2-1
Best Bet: Over 2.5 goals at $1.88 (75%)
Next Best: Draw No Bet Everton at $1.41
Tottenham ($1.67) versus Stoke ($5.5), Draw ($3.75)
A big game here for Tottenham to try and back up their great escape win over Aston Villa last weekend. They take on Stoke this week at White Hart Lane and will have a lot of work to do to break down this normally stubborn Stoke defence. I doubt it will happen, but Tottenham really need to give Harry Kane a start in the Premier League with his form warranting close to national selection. I don’t think it will happen though with Adebayor rested from their Europa league trip to Greece during the week and despite his horrible performance against Villa I can see Adebayor being selected once again. Stoke have been up and down this season with their highlight their 1-0 away win at Man City only to succumb to Leicester the following week at home. This game is going to be a bit of a gamble with Tottenham always looking strong on paper but ultimately failing to deliver on the pitch. I would not be surprised at all to see Tottenham struggle once again having to settle for a draw.
Predicted score: Draw 1-1
Best Bet: Under 2.5 goals at $1.8 (70%)
Next Best: Exactly 2 or 3 goals at $1.99
West Brom ($2.25) versus Newcastle ($3.2), Draw ($3.4)
Despite just the 3 wins this season for both sides, there is a lot to like about both and it surely makes for a good contest here. Newcastle are in excellent form winning their last 3 games including wins over Tottenham and Liverpool. A key point to their form though has been just the one goal conceded in those 3 games compared to 14 in their first 7 so some self-belief has obviously come through as well as new players starting to gel together nicely. West Brom haven’t been at the same level but they have only lost once in their past 6 games so they’ll be a good challenge for Newcastle. I’m not sure if I can see a clear winner though in this one despite Newcastle’s red hot form. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Newcastle get the win but I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see them stutter against slightly lower opposition here.
Predicted score: Draw 1-1
Best Bet: Both teams to score – Yes at $1.72 (80%)
Next Best: Berahino to score anytime at $2.5
Swansea ($3.5) versus Arsenal ($2.15), Draw ($3.4)
Week 11 rounds off with Swansea hosting Arsenal. Swansea have still failed to recapture their early season form winning just 1 of their last 6 games. They do however sit just 2 points behind Arsenal who are in 4th spot with their recent 2 wins putting them back in a strong position after 10 games. They are however going to be pretty focused on making it 3 wins in a row in the Premier League with their draw against Anderlecht not ideal having surrendered a 3-0 lead. Arsenal’s injury concerns continue with Arteta the latest casualty but their relatively deep squad means they should have little worry covering for him. Sanchez is in red hot form lately having scored 5 goals in his last 3 games in all competitions and I think he’ll be a good shot of adding to that here. He’s a difficult player to keep quiet but I think he’ll get the job done for Arsenal here.
Predicted score: Arsenal 2-1
Best Bet: Arsenal to win either half at $1.56 (85%)
Next Best: Sanchez to score anytime at $2.4
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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