English Premier League – Match Day 37
Just 2 games left and all eyes will be on the relegation battle with little else to be decided apart from the less important Europa League spots. Just 4 points separate 5 sides from 14th to 18th so still anything can happen in these final 2 games. Of the 5 sides battling it out for survival, Villa and Leicester look safe so it’s really a battle between Sunderland, Newcastle and Hull. Hull look the most likely given two tough final games against Spurs and Manchester United though Sunderland similarly have two tough games against the resurgent Leicester and then Arsenal on the final day so a surprise win from Hull in their final two games could prove critical. For me it’s really down to Hull or Newcastle. Newcastle have been really poor lately and are in real danger of the drop if Hull manage an upset in their final 2 games.
**Odds from Sportsbet as at 16th May
Southampton ($1.8) versus Aston Villa ($4.75), Draw ($3.5)
They still have a chance at Europa league football but Southampton don’t look like they want it in the way they are playing with the same to be said of Tottenham. It may mean little though if Arsenal win the FA Cup meaning both Tottenham and Southampton would get Europa League qualification next season anyway (assuming too of course that Swansea stop winning). They take on Villa this week who’ve been in good form to almost guarantee their safety by winning 3 of their last 4 including wins over Tottenham and Everton. The same can’t be said of the Saints who’ve lost 3 of their last 4. Southampton at home though have been a different proposition with 3 wins and a draw from their last 4. Defensively too they’ve been phenomenal this season conceding just the 30 goals of which 12 have come at home. It paints a difficult picture for a Villa side that has generally struggled for goals this season. In saying that though, they have scored 11 times in their last 6 games which is a big turnaround when you consider in their first 30 games they only scored 19 times. Their problem though is that they concede as much or more than they score so I doubt Villa will be keeping a clean sheet here so at best they’ll be able to push for a draw.
Predicted score: Draw 2-2
Best Bet: Over 2.5 goals at $1.95 (85%)
Next Best: Both teams to score – Yes at $1.83
Sunderland ($2.7) versus Leicester ($2.7), Draw ($3.25)
A win here for Sunderland would pretty much guarantee safety this season given they have a game in hand on their relegation rivals. What should make this a really good game and perhaps the one to watch this weekend is the fact that Leicester too are fighting hard to avoid the drop. For Leicester if they win this one it gets them to the 40 point mark which would guarantee them safety in what has been a stunning turnaround in form for them. It’s perhaps hardly surprising then that Leicester are the top side in the league at the moment on form over the last 6 games with 5 wins and a loss ahead of Chelsea with 4 wins and 2 draws. They’ve scored 15 times over that period whilst conceding just the 5 goals. In their first 30 games they’d conceded 49 goals so such a drastic turnaround in form for me shows an incredibly strong belief and determination amongst the players to survive. Sunderland had a fantastic win last time out over Everton away from home which puts them in a good position here to make it 3 in a row though Leicester won’t make it easy. I dare say Leicester’s downfall this week may be that they have 1 eye on QPR next week to finish off the season strongly which might play into the hands of Sunderland here. It’ll be tight but Sunderland should sneak this one.
Predicted score: Sunderland 2-1
Best Bet: Sunderland to win either half at $1.85 (90%)
Next Best: Both teams to score – Yes at $1.72
QPR ($2.8) versus Newcastle ($2.5), Draw ($3.4)
With QPR already relegated the pressure is all on Newcastle to get something out of this one otherwise they are at risk of dropping into the relegation zone. On a positive note in their last game they finally ended an 8 game losing streak with a draw against West Brom but they are still far from convincing. As such it’ll be interesting to see how QPR play this one given they don’t have the pressure on needing to win to survive which may allow them to play more effectively but equally it could mean the players are a bit deflated in knowing they have been relegated. Their 6-0 thumping at the hands of Manchester City last weekend too might make it hard to bounce back but Newcastle have equally been as poor this season so this could really be an anything result. For me the draw looks the safest bet because Newcastle will be pushing hard for a point at the least knowing they have Hull breathing down their neck.
Predicted score: Draw 1-1
Best Bet: Under 2.5 goals at $2.07 (70%)
Next Best: Exactly 2 or 3 goals at $2.07
Tottenham ($1.8) versus Hull ($4.33), Draw ($3.8)
Tottenham were very poor in their last game against Stoke and deservedly lost and they face a side in Hull who have a lot to fight for so I wouldn’t be surprised to see an upset here. In saying that though, Tottenham would do well to ensure their last home game of the season is a winning one for the fans so I think this will be a good contest. The Tottenham players have looked flat in their last 5 or 6 games so they’ll need to get into this game early otherwise it’ll feel like it’s dragging on and it gives Hull a chance to get something out of it. For Hull to get a win here they’ll need to go against their poor away form this season where they’ve only had 3 wins away and whilst I think they’ll put in a good fight here I don’t think I can see them causing an upset albeit as a Tottenham fan I wouldn’t be surprised if they did. The return of Michael Dawson to White Hart lane should make for an interesting atmosphere but in the end I fancy Spurs to get up for a scrappy home win in what may yet again be a come from behind 2-1 win which has been a favourite for them this season.
Predicted score: Tottenham 2-1
Best Bet: Over 2.5 goals at $1.72 (85%)
Next Best: Exactly 1 goal in the first half at $2.62
West Ham ($2.75) versus Everton ($2.6), Draw ($3.3)
Whilst there’s not a huge amount at stake here a win for Everton gives them a good chance of finishing ahead of West Ham in the top 10 and equally a win for West Ham guarantees them a top 10 finish. Everton look like they’ve switched off a little with 2 losses in a row and might just play this one out with a view to a good finish at home next week against Tottenham. Everton will be without Baines for the rest of the season due to injury which for me is a big loss and may play into the hands of the likes of Downing who’s been a menace this season. I think Everton might also find it hard to score here with the Hammers in good defensive form at home conceding just the 2 goals in their last 4 home games. I think West Ham will be up for their final home game of what has been a pretty good season overall for them.
Predicted score: West Ham 1-0
Best Bet: West Ham to win either half at $1.91 (80%)
Next Best: Under 2.5 goals at $1.85
Burnley ($2.6) versus Stoke ($2.8), Draw ($3.25)
With relegation confirmed for Burnley they’ll no doubt want to finish the season off strongly for their fans. They take on Stoke who had a good win over a poor Tottenham last week but I’m not sure Stoke will have it so easy this week. Burnley have been tough to beat at home and whilst they have the worst home record in the league, they haven’t really been thumped at home with just the 21 goals conceded across 18 home games. Stoke are an average side at best when it comes to away form this season and for me I just don’t trust them enough to back up the good result they had against Tottenham. They’ve now secured their highest ever points tally of 50 points, secured a top 10 position, and I think now the foot may come off the pedal a little.
Predicted score: Burnley 1-0
Best Bet: Under 2.5 goals at $1.63 (85%)
Next Best: Half with most goals – 2nd half at $2.12
Liverpool ($1.44) versus Crystal Palace ($7.5), Draw ($4.5)
This is a massive game for Liverpool fans for the reason that it will be Gerrard’s final game at Anfield. Thankfully for his sake Liverpool have been in good home form this season with just the 3 losses and winning 5 of their last 6 at home. Crystal Palace I’m sure wouldn’t mind ruining the party though but for me it would need to be the Crystal Palace of 5 or 6 games ago when they were on strong winning streak. They’ve now lost their last 4 and I can’t see them turning it around here. The atmosphere I can only imagine will be incredible here as it seems to be every week at Anfield. And with that atmosphere I think Liverpool will get a really strong result here in a fitting send off for Stevie G.
Predicted score: Liverpool 3-0
Best Bet: Over 2.5 goals at $1.65 (75%)
Next Best: Both teams to score – No at $2
Swansea ($4.5) versus Manchester City ($1.73), Draw ($4)
Both sides are in good form here which should make for a good contest. Man City have won their last 4 games by a combined score of 12-2 with Aguero the main man with 6 of those goals and in this form I’m not sure how Swansea can hold him off from scoring. If anything they might focus on the threat of him too much that it gives the likes of Silva an unguarded avenue to goal. In saying that, Swansea did get a fine away win over Arsenal last week so they’ll know they can beat the big guys but I just have my doubts as to whether they can back that up this week as it’s a big ask. There’s no doubt though that Swansea will play this very tightly in the way they did against Man City though with a top 6 spot certainly within their reach if results go their way. For that reason I think this will be a tight game and one that might only have a couple of goals in it so it’s really just a question of whether Swansea can get one of those goals. For me I think it’s too hard to go past Man City getting the win here.
Predicted score: Manchester City 2-0
Best Bet: Manchester City to win at $1.73 (70%)
Next Best: Under 2.5 goals at $2.24
Manchester United ($2.5) versus Arsenal ($2.9), Draw ($3.25)
Both of these sides will be in the Champions league next season but it’s just a matter of which of these two will get automatic qualification and which will have to go through some qualification games. Arsenal of course have a 2 point lead on United with a game in hand as well so you would think they have the upper hand in getting that automatic spot but if United win their last two and Arsenal drop points against Sunderland or West Brom then they might just have to settle for some qualifiers. It means that there’s a bit to play for here so both sides will be keen to get the 3 points which might make for a cagey contest. Arsenal had plenty of chances against Swansea but ultimately failed to convert despite 10 shots on target and the majority of possession. The thing I doubt about Arsenal is their ability to win big over top sides away from home. Besides their away win over Manchester City this season, they’ve failed to go further and win at the likes of Liverpool, Tottenham, and Chelsea. For that reason I’m not convinced they can come out for a win here, a draw is a more likely option but I fancy United for a home win here.
Predicted score: Manchester United 2-1
Best Bet: Draw No Bet Manchester United at $1.75 (80%)
Next Best: Over 2.5 goals at $1.76
