Welcome to The Profits preview from for Caulfield 19 August 2017. Back to Caulfield this week where we could have anywhere between Good 4-Soft 6 with a 20-25km wind that shouldn’t hurt front runners on the day. Coming off one of our very best weeks in a while at Flemington and hoping to get a few strong results on the board here. Most importantly, the good horses are returning and Spring is almost upon us! As always, I hope you have a good day. Good luck and happy punting.
Best Bet
Caulfield Race 3 – Fursa – 6 units @ $5.00 to win.
Next Best Bet
Caulfield Race 2 – Lyuba – 2.5 units Each-Way @ $5.50/$2.10.
Best Value
Caulfield Race 4 – Onpicalo – 1.25 units Each-Way @ $9/$3.10.
Best Each-Way
Caulfield Race 8 – Vega Magic 2.25 units Each-Way @ $6.00/$2.30.
Other Bet
Caulfield Race 6 – Kobayashi – 2.75 units @ $5.50 to win. A Thousand Degrees – 1.25 units @ $16 to win.
Caulfield Quaddie
Quaddie Leg One: 2, 3, 4, 5, 14
Quaddie Leg Two: 2, 3, 7, 9
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 2, 6, 11
Quaddie Leg Four: 3, 5, 6, 10, 12, 14, 16, 20
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use for the basics – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.odds.com.au
Our results are updated daily here – Betting Spreadsheet
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
For those that preview a discussion on form in Video format, you can watch the videos below.
Caulfield Race 1 – 1600m – Pegasus Leisure Group Plate
1. Hell or Highwater: Ridden perfectly last start at Flemington when led them around at a big tempo and skipped away to get the win. Negative jockey change and will need to improve again to win here. Positive back to Caulfield.
2. Dulverton: Won two in a row before being beaten due to the ride out the front and having to make up too much ground last start. Stockdale keeps the ride and better off at the weights today against Hell or Highwater. A bit of rain around to give her the right track again today. Only negative is record at track.
3. Domino Vitale: Returned to form last start at Flemington when ran a very respectable third behind Hell or Highwater and Dulverton. Never placed at this track in the past a bit of a worry.
4. Step the Pedal: Fairly beaten two back at Flemington behind Dulverton and went to Morphetville and ran a respectable third. Has to improve here.
5. Miss It and a Bit: Disappointing run last start at Flemington finding trouble throughout and getting galloped on, but it was a disappointing run. Can go better than that, but still has to improve thats for sure.
6. Not Only Florina: Listed grade winner over in France with a 82k race win over 2000m before running 3L 5th in a G3 over 2100m before a spell. Has won over 1600m first up in the past and 300 days between races… looks a strong type with the Hayes yard.
7. Niminypiminy: Continues to have her chances but just keeps finding a few too good. Went around on speed last week at Flemington and obviously better ridden colder.. Step up to 1600m a negative for mine in this grade.
8. Sea the Sparkle: Poor run last start at Flemington when slow recovery and mucus. Can obviously imporve again and run well but i’m finding it hard to back the horse off a set back while others have had additional runs and improved.
9. Jeanneau: CL2 winner up in Sydney. Struggle to see the improvement needed here.
Comments: An interesting race to start the day. Hell or Highwater has a few negatives here today and I’m happy to take on with the jockey onboard. Dulverton looks very well suited here and will get the perfect run throughout as long as there is no true bias. Domino Vitale will have to improve onwards again and Sea the Sparkle will have to peak from a good spot in running. Not Only Florina is a very interesting runner first up for the Hayes stable today.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Dulverton top pick.
Caulfield Race 2 – 1100m – Legacy 2017 Badge Appeal Handicap
1. Risque: 1600m Group 1 winner back in New Zealand. G3 winner over 1200m first up last prep before 3rd in the Australian Guineas G1 behind Palentino and Tarzino. 500 days between runs is the obvious concern. Can obviously win over this distance but coming back from injury you have to think the horse is wanting further? Maps okay.
2. Lyuba: Goes well first up. Best runs are over the shorter sprint distances. Ran very well last prep. Goes okay at this track.
3. Sullivan Bay: Maps once again to get an on speed position to run them around at the pace she wants. Can run well once again nicely weighted once again and has been beaten 0.2 and 0.5L last two starts so is certainly going well enough.
4. Minnie Downs: Swanhill Cup winner over 1600m two preps back. Hard to see here at this distance.
5. Oregon’s Day: G3 winner at Moonee Valley last prep before 5th in G1 Queen of the Turf. Obviously, has to be respected with placings in G3 class over 1200m first up last prep.
6. Written Era: been running very well in Group class in the past and was very well backed first up before scratching. Back in easier grade last start at Sandown won well on Heavy. Going nicely enough this prep to be a winning chance.
7. Petite’s Reward: Inside barrier and expected to push forward to be on speed with Sullivan Bay. Best runs in the past have been good, but not super. Hard to have on this preps runs.
8. Modern Wonder: Hasn’t won in the last 7 runs and first up today in open mares class handicap grade is taking another step up in class. Did run G3 2nd over 1200m starting last prep but didn’t finish off the prep well.
10. Certain Ellie: Nice run 3rd from out the back last start behind Saint Valorem in a strangely run race. Stays at distance and up in grade. Has to improve but does get in with 51kg.
11. World of Hope: Hasn’t won in a long time and runs last prep in easier grades were well below best. Never won on Good.
12. Little Indian: The bolter from the blue, she really looks the forgotten element today in a race that could very well suit here. Has a blistering final 200m. Most importantly, this is the type of horse that is best suited by slow early tempo.
Comments: I’m pretty keen on Lyuba based on how the horse maps to get a spot 1 out 1 back in a race with only medium pace early suited to front runners coming home strong late. Lyuba fits the bill all the way to the bank.
Confidence 90%
Strategy: Lyuba – 2.5 units Each-Way @ $5.50/$2.10
Caulfield Race 3 – 1100m – Beveridge Williams Plate
1. Dylanson: Never won over these distances in the past so struggle to see this horse measure up here.
2. Theanswermyfriend: Never won over the distance in the past but has run well in higher grades than this with 3Y-SWP win at Flemington over 1400m and G3 2nd over 1600m. Win wouldn’t be a total shock.
3. Un de Sceaux: Ended last prep running a solid 5th in Handicap grade over further at Flemington. Best runs over further but did measure up to this grade.
4. Highland Beat: Freshened up. Listed winner down the straight two back and then a fairly door run off the slow tempos. Well back in class today and always goes well at track but doesn’t win here often.
5. Danuki: Terrible first up on a day you didn’t want to lead but looked real good on lead in trials. Has to be forgiven for that run and best should go close here.
6. Dusty Jack: Going well at home and Hayes stable have big opinion for the Spring. Tough barrier today and will need to find a lot of luck and be rock hard fit to put this field away.
7. Saint Valorem: Loomed this prep as a good type and last start went bang from the back on a day that suited swoopers. Has to be respected.
8. Devils Pinch: First up today over suitable distance. Measures up in this grade also from past runs and has gone close behind some nice types. If improved onwards since spell can go close today first up. Won 3 from 4 first up!
9. Tango Rock: Always been a spruk horse but has gone through the grades well this prep. Fairly beaten last start 2nd behind Saint Valorem but certainly in this.
11. Chapel Road: Not been close to a win the past 4 runs is a fairly big issue. Really struggle to see him win here.
12. Fierce Command: Not an overly strong horse outside of heavy track form. Fairly beaten first up behind Orujo and has to improve.
13. Fursa: Weir import via Meydan and South Africa. Placed in G1 company and won a G2 so has to be respected. Williams onboard for the reason. Great barrier but does get back in run. Looks to have ELITE form and turn of foot.
14. Just for Starters: Couldn’t get the win at Sale first up returning from 600 days off. Hard to have.
15. Land of Plenty: Always looked a nice type on ability and did place in G3 last prep behind Hey Doc at Flemington over 1400m. Did also run 3rd in the Inglis Dash first up.
16. Quilista: Weir runner over from the west. Did win Listed grade over 1400m and can sprint.
20. Kazio: 3rd in the Bendigo Guineas over 1400m and has some ability… just not convinced he is a out and out sprinter.
Comments: Group 1 horse down into BM-78 grade today in Fursa. I can’t let the price go by as I only feel bad luck gets us beat. Have to have a HUGE lash.
Confidence 95%
Strategy: Fursa – 6 units @ $5.00 to win.
Caulfield Race 4 – 1600m – Ramlegh Springs On Clyde Handicap
1. Big Duke: Not won over this distance in the past but always been very competitive… but in easier grade.
2. Guardini: Ended last prep with a 2000m G3 win. Has run well in the past over this distance. Been nearly 500 days between runs suggesting a bad injury issue.
3. Amovatio: Ran very well last start at Flemington from out the back and just found one too good… and finds Rhythm to Spare in this race again. Get back run on. Need luck to overcome Rhythm to Spare today.
4. Rhythm to Spare: Gone from strength to strength this prep and has recorded some nice priced wins for us. Great barrier today to map midfield at worst (most likely closer) at a track and distance he rates super well at. Most importantly, 3kg claim today has him well in at weights even after the last start win.
5. Foundry: Williams runner first up today after nearly a year off. Beaten by Freshwater Storm to end last prep at course and distance. Best last prep was below what would be needed here.
6. Petrology: Two back run was good enough to win this today. Stronger tempo last start just saw the horse peak after looking ready to simply win the race in the straight, but the horse was also well off in the yard. Could present much better today and be a chance.
7. Onpicalo: Been given some really rubbish rides in recent months and should have been winning at this course over this distance. Into 52.5kg today with the 3kg claim, i’m not a massive fan of the jockey but do feel the horse is well suited here. Onpicalo was clearly off in the yard last start and the market knew it on the big drift. Will be allowed to control tempo here.
8. Jacquinot Bay: Very good run two back from off the speed at Caulfield over 1800m and ran a close 5th. Last start 3rd up at Randwick but beaten 4.5L when leading them around. Will take a sit today.
9. Moonovermanhattan: Been slowly improving this prep and getting stronger. Was backed last start but still fairly beaten and will struggle to make up the 4+ lengths required for mine.
10. Magnapal: Smashingly strongly run first up at Flemington when 2.5L off Rhythm to Spare. Similar weights today the only issue but can improve again.
11. Freshwater Storm: Very best is more than good enough to run well here, but hasn’t shown it in a while and best run last prep was on a softer track. Tempo will be right for him.
12. Khezerabad: Gelded. Hurdle type over in the UK but before that did go okay as a 3YO over 2000m-2400m. Needs further.
Comments: Three clear standouts in this race in Amovatio, Rhythm to Spare and Onpicalo. At the weights, I have to go against my best judgement and jockey ban and back Onpicalo at the great E/W odds in a race that will be controlled from the front with a very low weight.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Onpicalo – 1.25 units Each-Way @ $9/$3.10
Caulfield Race 5 – 1100m – Winslow Group Quezette Stakes
1. Catchy: Flying back at home coming into this and loves Caulfield with 3 runs for 3 wins. Also loves the dryer tracks which we should get today. Perfect barrier, hard to bet around her here.
3. I’ll Have a Bit: G3 winner over in South Australia after a respectable 3rd at Flemington. First up today and has to improve on last prep to win here.
4. Undoubtable Miss: Good maiden run first up last prep and went on to run well with a 2YO MM Classic win at Morphetville to finish the prep. Another that rates nicely today but has to find more than last prep.
5. Arctic Angel: Offered a lot and ran very well first up last prep, but other two runs saw her fairly beaten. Others preferred.
6. Seannie: Concussion plates (front) first time. WA horse that won listed grade but not in G3 or G2. Others preferred on current form lines.
7. Ploverset: Hayes runner that won a nice Listed grade race but could only manage third in G3 company to finish prep. Has ability.
8. Crown Witness: Strong win first up at Flemington down the 1000m straight but was a weighted moral on the day compared to 2nd placed horse. Has to improve and poor barrier.
9. Brook Magic: Decent trial run heading into this but looks well below the very best that is needed here.
11. She’s So High: Looked a strong type winning a very strongly run 2YO race at Sandown last start and the sectionals back up the win. Aljawzaa backs up the form.
Comments: Catchy maps perfectly again today and will have every chance. She’s So High could be anything today and has the turn of foot required to measure up here. Interesting to see where Crown Witness sits from so wide while Tulip could start with a huge advantage on Cathy in the straight. Not only convinced here and may just sit it out unless take fancy to something in the yard.
Confidence 65%
Strategy: Catchy on top. She’s So High next best.
Caulfield Race 6 – 1100m – KS Environmental Vain Stakes
1. Aspect: Gelded. Looked a very good horse at times but just couldn’t measure up to the very top level last prep which has led to the gelding operation. Has to have improved.
2. Veranillo: Two trials heading into this to get the horse ready to fire first up. Horse has a lot of talent with a solid 2nd to She Will Reign in the Silver Slipper last prep and placed in other Group company also.
3. Wait for No One: Solid run first up when still had more fitness to come and went around off a very slow tempo and was forced to lead. Expect to try take a sit today.
4. Jukebox: Glue on shoes off. Lameness issues last prep saw him not line-up in the Blue Diamond. Obviously a well respected type here.
5. Kobayashi: Solid 1200m handicap win at course last prep and then went onto listed grade and won very well by 3L over Al Passem and Doubt I’m Dreaming. Could measure up very well here. Only issue is barrier.
6. Ducimus: Well fancied Hawkes runner that failed first up in Adelaide in the Lightning. Last prep in easier races ran well. Has to improve.
8. Cliff’s Edge: Finished off last prep with a win over Lone Eagle at Sandown in a high rating race. Has to improve onwards here and be at top of game first up.
9. Evil Cry: Ran fairly the past few starts but always finds one too good at i’m expecting similar here.
11. Plutocracy: Finished last prep fairly behind Kobayashi fairly beaten. Others preferred.
12. Fully Maxed: Nice win firs tup in easier grade and fairly beaten last start when didn’t show a lot. Has to improve.
13. Poseidon’s Pool: BM-64 grade winner last start and maiden previous start. Weir seems to be able to push them through these types of preps to then win in 3YO grade.
14. A Thousand Degrees: First up run today and has been going well in private. Trialled in public 8 months back. Currie onboard and looks to get the ideal run here. Will measure up.
Comments: Keen to play here today on the best horse in the race Kobayashi. Only the barrier has me a bit concerned but Benny can jump the horse and sit on speed and go all the way for us.
Confidence 85%
Quaddie Leg One: 2, 3, 4, 5, 14
Strategy: Kobayashi – 2.75 units @ $5.50 to win. A Thousand Degrees – 1.25 units @ $16 to win.
Caulfield Race 7 – 1400m – Charge of the Light Horse P.B Lawrence Stakes
2. Hartnell: First up last prep 2.8L 2nd to Winx over 1400m in the G2 Apollo in a 12 horse race with Endless Drama 3rd a further 4L back. Has to be clearly respected here today based on that last prep first up info.
3. Black Heart Bart: Resumes first up today over the right distance in 1400m which is clearly his best distance. Last 5 runs at Caulfield for BHB has seen 4 G1 wins and a G1 2nd behind Winx. Had his worst prep last prep though.
4. Tosen Stardom: Went very well first up last prep for a 1400m 2nd 0.1L behind Black Heart Bart and then 2nd to Palentino in the Blamey. Got injured after that and returns here. Weir thinks this is probably his best horse but first up over 1400m would need to be ready to fire.
5. Gailo Chop: 511 day break due to injury. Needs further.
6. Humidor: G1 winner last prep. Did show some promise over 1400m first up and next two starts over 1600m and 1800m.
7. Star Exhibit: Another Weir runner.. won well first up last prep over this distance before 2nd in the Doomben Cup. Best seen over further but can run well over 1400m.
8. He’s Our Rokkii: Would be surprised to see him win this here. Run well but have to take on.
9. Charmed Harmony: Only natural leader in the race and will be allowed to run around as Katie wants him to. Will need to try pinch a break on the turn is the only issue here.
12. Amelie’s Star: Another Weir runner. Best seen over further in the previous preps. Best over further.
13. Abbey Marie: Struggle to even consider being a chance here. Take on.
14. Montoya’s Secret: G1 winner over 2000m last prep. Maiden winner over 1400m only. Hard to even consider.
Comments: I can’t split Hartnell and Black Heart Bart who both deserve to be equal favourites in this race. Both deserve to be under $4 and they are and I really can’t touch them at the odds.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie Leg Two: 2, 3, 7, 9
Strategy: Hartell clearly on top pick as the rain has come
Caulfield Race 8 – 1200m – Lister Regal Roller Stakes
1. Vega Magic: The champ is here! Looks very well suited today coming off the G1 Goodwood win over 1200m, coming off two G3 wins in WA. Deserves the 60.5kg today against this lot and maps to be leading or outside the leader today from the wide barrier. Hard to run past.
2. Most Important: Tony Gollan horse down from up north to battle this out today. Listed and Handicap grade winner last prep over further, did win the G3 G Moore as well over 1200m. Has to be respected.
4. Berisha: Mornington Cup winner but last prep didn’t find a lot. Needs further.
5. Chocolate Holic: Always been a horse that needs 1400m+ for mine and that was proven first up even if he didn’t handle the heavy. Struggle to see why he is in here again at the 1200m. Obviously well weighted against Vega Magic.
6. Lord da Vinci: Nice win first up at Moonee Valley in a similar grade of race beating some second grade sprinters. It was a good win and the trial since has shown clear intentions.
7. Santa Ana Lane: Continues to run well without winning in city grade. Did win at Wagga. Has to improve first up here.
8. Reldas: Old mate wasn’t terrible this prep but four back best run was 2nd in G3 company beaten by Karacatis. Improvement needed but best can go close.
9. Schism: Just kept running well the past three starts scoring for us on each occasion. Steps back to 1200m a big negative but finds herself well in at weights and will get a charmed run again.
11. Brave Smash: Well fancied Japanese import that has trialed well coming into this. Best seen on dry tracks and has measured up over further. Not convinced this horse is a 1200m specialist.
12. Divine Ten: Ran home well 5th not exactly suited last start at Sandown on heavy or wide the trip. Could surprise and run very well today based on two back run.
13. Murt the Flirt: Scratched last week from the heavy track and returns to scene of the crime when finished 1.05L 3rd behind Supido. Does have to improve but nice type.
14. Souchez: The pick of the Godolphin runners and probably one of their best chances on the day, Souchez is well fancied and had 4 lead in runs. Best runs in the past have been over further is the only issue.
15. Lord Von Costa: Fairly beaten last start by Red Alto at Flemington. Up in grade and hard to see a win here.
Comments: Surprised and happy about the price being offered for Vega Magic today. Certainly understand the horse is giving away 4kg to many runners and 2.5kg to others, but he had to also in the Goodwood and it didn’t matter. Barrier is the only negative but Oliver rides them well.
Confidence 90%
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 2, 6, 11
Strategy: Vega Magic 2.25 units Each-Way @ $6.00/$2.30
Caulfield Race 9 – 1400m – Thebigscreencompany.com.au Plate
2. Don Doremo: Best in the past seen over 2500m+. Hard to see why the horse is in and around these distances.
3. Here to There: Huge run last start 3-wide no cover into the breeze and only finished 0.8L off the winner. Similar class today remains at 1400m and maps beautifully from barrier 1. Also well in at weights again with the Claim of Brown.
5. Nevis: Blinkers on. Showed nothing last prep and comes back 100 days later and we don’t know what to expect. Best in the past more than good enough for this.
6. Divine Mr Artie: Back in form and running well enough to win this. Good run last start just missed and was pretty unlucky. Can run well here from a good barrier.
7. Settler’s Stone: 3rd in the Mornington Cup. Needs further.
8. By the Grace: Loves a bit of the wet. Going well enough on previous efforts over the last 100m days to figure somewhere.
9. Mr Wonderful: Two horrible runs this prep. Better than what has been shown but hard to suggest.
10. Reincarnate: Good run last start when just too far back in a decent race. Has to improve today and poor barrier doesn’t help.
11. Himalaya Dream: Hasn’t won in a while and best runs have been in easier grades. Not sure he is up to this.
12. Tiamo Grace: G2 winner to end last prep over 2000m after progressing from a Donald maiden and being beaten in BM-64 grade at Murtoa! Needs further but clearly, has ability.
13. Majestic Duke: Going well this prep. Stuck on strongly last start but has to improve on this grade of race today.
14. Ozi Choice: Led last start in a race where swoopers came over the top late on a day with a lot of wind out front. Huge run considering and will be hard to get past today.
16. Tahanee: Another Weir import from Meydan. Measured up to solid ratings but never got a win over there. Previous G3 winner form at San Isidro (Argentina) is respected. Looks a good type.
19. Oscar’s My Mate Pa: Doubt he gets a run here but even so, only won two back due to tactics.
20. Wayanka: Hard to ignore a horse in form backing up again today. Respect.
Comments: Long way home in the last. Expecting at least two scratchings from the Quaddie. Have to believe Ozi Choice will be hard to get past.
Confidence 65%
Quaddie Leg Four: 3, 5, 6, 10, 12, 14, 15, 16, 20
Strategy: Ozi Choice on top. Also want to have something on Tahanee and Here to There at the odds.
