Welcome to The Profits form guide for the Caulfield meeting on 21 April 2018. A solid card of racing is presented to us and hopefully we aren’t going to get a weather transformation like we had at Caulfield last week. Looking forward to a solid day on track – as always, good luck and happy punting.
Caulfield Race 1 – 1400m – Heritage Finance VOBIS Gold Distaff
1. French Emotion: Found no luck last start over 1400m and finds another winnable race here from a barrier that should assure a run outside of runners. Won this race last year.
2. Lady Selkirk: Not suited 1200m run first up and has more than a month between runs to freshen up. Well suited up to 1400m and goes well at track.
3. My True Love: Scratched from French Emotions race a few weeks back. Had two trials on the lead in. Last win was on a soft 6 over 1400m in easier company. Has run very well 2nd in G2 class behind Prompt Response. Was poor last prep.
4. Summer Glen: Strong win first up in significantly easier race than this. Steps up in distance which suits. Was 3rd in the Rivette Final behind Spanish Reef last prep. Has to be respected.
5. Sister Kitty Mac: Good on pace type. Strong run three back behind Sabotage and not the worst at Flemington two back, but last start 1400m didn’t seem the go so I’m surprised with the placement today.
6. La Fleurette: Hard horse to catch. Negative racing action out the back in most fields. Okay enough lead in run from an unwinnable position. Win three back was solid in easier.
7. Evil Lil: Soft 7 1400m winner last prep. Step up in grade in reality here and from 9 first and second up runs has just the 1 win in easier grade. Never placed at track.
8. Fudged: First up today coming off a strong finish to lack prep with a win at Pakenham. Never placed at track previously but does have a strong distance record.
9. Another Bullseye: Won well first up at Pakenham and this is a step up again. Horse has always shown solid signs of being classy with a 2nd at Flemington last prep in a race not much harder than this.
10. Nothing By a Saga: Kyneton winner by a reasonable distance. Will be suited by tempo from out back and could swoop over them late.
11. Honey Esprit: On speed type. Freshened up after finally getting a maiden win on a soft 5 at the bool. Need to improve obviously.
Top Chances: Lady Selkirk, French Emotion
High Chances: Another Bullseye, La Fleurette
Medium Chances: Sister Kitty Mac, Fudged, Summer Glen
Low Chances: Honey Esprit, Evil Lil, My True Love
Very Low Chances: Nothing But a Saga
Expected Speed: Strong speed 5-8L above benchmark expected with My True Love pushing them around and horses such as Sister Kitty Mac ensuring that occurs.
Comments: Lady Selkirk maps for an ideal run throughout with a little bit of luck needed coming into the straight – surprised and shocked by the price. Steps up to the right distance in a race that will be run solidly to suit. French Emotion is the main danger and will get further back but ultimately will appreciate the tempo on out front. Another Bullseye and La Fleurette look the main dangers.
Caulfield Race 2 – 1600m – IRT VOBIS Gold Mile
1. Turnitaround: Coming into this well back in class and up in distance which is ideal. Coming out of a strongly run race, he hasn’t found an on speed leader to suit here. This horse is a step below Group 1 class over this distance range, so naturally, with a race run to suit, he would be very hard to hold out.
2. Zebrinz: Loves a strong tempo and can pop up on occasion. Doesn’t have elite turn of foot which is a worry in a race lacking in a speed runner.
3. Widgee Turf: Horse is a jet plane and absolutely flying. Has always appreciated a bit of give in the ground, won well at course over 1400m last start in Group 3 level. This looks actually an easier task mapping much closer today.
4. Ken’s Dream: Ran a 31.87 at Flemington three runs back showing the horse can sit and sprint like the best of them. Ran well last start 3rd to Widgee Turf over the 1400m. Query up to the 1600m but have to trust the process with this stable.
5. So Si Bon: Nice enough return to 1400m last start 5th behind Widgee Turf. Was ridden more on speed than normal and had to do it tough early. Best runs have always come when the horse has been allowed to finish off strong late. Don’t dismiss here.
6. Waging War: Nice type coming over from Adelaide. Best runs in past have been over further. Two nice races on lead in but step up certainly required here.
7. Four By Four: 2400m winner two preps back. Doesn’t look a 1400m type on record.
8. Sword of Light: Looks the likely leader here and there is no reason for Williams to push the tempo – expect to be able to control the speed.
Top Chances: Widgee Turf
High Chances: So Si Bon, Turnitaround
Medium Chances: Sword of Light, Ken’s Dream
Low Chances: Zebrinz, Waging War
Very Low Chances: Four By Four
Expected Speed: 5L Below Benchmark to 2L Above Benchmark
Comments: A significant lack of speed in the race. Widgee Turf is the best sit sprinter over this distance, but can win off any tempo and maps perfectly. So Si Bon will be the main rival to get past. Sword of Light will certainly kick on well from out front but needs to find a new gear to hold off the best types in this race. If the speed goes on, Turnitaround comes into the race significantly.
Caulfield Race 4 – 2000m – Goldners VOBIS Gold Heath
1. Self Sense: Four runs this prep and has failed to go even close all runs this prep. Going forwards the hurdles it seems.
2. Dodging Bullets: Strong Golden Mile win from an on speed position in a race that looked slightly short of his best. Was not run overly strongly out front and was the best horse home. Will have to improve here again but how much?
3. Kiwia: Got back way too far in a slowly run race last start and still got home strongly. Up to 2000m, back to Caulfield where he won last prep over this distance. Go well here.
4. Radical: Always around the mark but hasn’t won in a very long time. Three runs this prep in easier and hasn’t been able to score. Struggle to suggest.
5. Patch Adams: A while between drinks for this horse that promised a fair bit early on but hasn’t delivered at the top level. Looks out of class here having only run 3rd last start at Naracoorte.
6. Floral Fever: Good run 2nd in the Stony Creek Cup two back behind Gallic Chieftain. Failed to fire last start and is just an ignore run. Going well.
8. Blue Jangles: Concussion Plates first time. Hasn’t measured up to this class in the past. Last win was at Bendigo over 2200m and didn’t run sufficient time to measure up here.
9. Royal Order: Finished off last prep with two solid runs at 3YO top level. Two runs on lead in this prep over 1800m and had chances first up and wasn’t bad second up. Just might not be good enough?
10. Welcome Stryker: Fairly beaten the past three runs in much easier races than this. Is a nice enough type and will be on speed.
11. Laughing Heir: Best runs in the past good enough to be considered a chance here… but last four runs this prep have only been fair. Need to improve.
12. Montoya’s Secret: Well back in class here today. Horse can’t present any better than it always does but hasn’t got within 3.5L of a win this prep. Times are solid and the horse may very well get a race run to suit here.
Top Chances: Kiwia, Dodging Bullets
High Chances: Montoya’s Secret, Floral Fever
Medium Chances: Self Sense, Royal Order, Laughing Heir
Low Chances: Radical, Patch Adams, Welcome Stryker
Very Low Chances: Blue Jangles
Expected Speed: Blue Jangles and Welcome Stryker are the only natural speed in this race – expecting 5L below benchmark up to 3L above range.
Comments: Kiwia is clearly the horse to beat while Dodging Bullets can repeat what happened last start. Think the market has this right with Montoya’s Secret the main danger to those two with Royal Order just behind in the market.
Caulfield Race 5 – 1100m – Yulong VOBIS Gold Dash
1. Nature Strip: Natural on speed type. Changed stables twice in three months which isn’t ideal. Last three runs showed form well above this grade of race. Top class horse. Only query is holding the rail and not getting cluttered up.
2. Snitzepeg: Listed grade winner over 1400m last prep. Bets runs over further than this… so hard to suggest this horse on best runs over these distances in the past.
3. Sam’s Image: Continues to run around this prep now 7th up. Best run 2nd up is good enough to be considered but hasn’t gone close since.
4. Tycoon Dancer: Blinkers first time. Looked a nice type as a 2YO winning at course and distance. Two runs this prep were okay but didn’t go close to times needed to win this.
5. Prevailing Winds: Last start run was horses best to date off a strong tempo from on speed and had a load more to still give when leaders came back onto him. Looks well suited.
6. Deprive: Beaten favourite last start at Moonee Valley when just got too far back in a slowly run race. Will be much better suited by tempo here and this horse is a star on the up. Respect.
7. Vainstream: Four runs total for three wins. Has never run a solid class time that will be needed here.
8. Equestria: Failed to get close and started $41 last start over 1200m at Moonee Valley. Struggle to suggest here.
9. Gaudi: Maiden winner only. Not the worst off a slow tempo last start but has every possibility in easier than this.
10. Written Choice: Blinkers first time. Measured up last prep and looked a nice type going forward. Beaten $1.30 favourite first up at Pakenham when found no luck. Unsure how good the horse is going.. looked a nice type last prep.
11. Southern Turf: Three runs this prep in significantly easier. Hasn’t gone close. Pass here.
12. Metson: Maiden winner last prep in fine fashion over 1300m. Didn’t show anything the next three starts. Has to have trained on.
13. Miss Vixen: Very strong win in open class at course and distance last start from out the back. Beat some nice types. Good win and can go on with it.
14. Tarcoola Spirit: Horse had it’s chances two back and ran into a very good type. Bad part of the track last start? Can measure up.
Top Chances: Nature Strip
High Chances: Deprive, Prevailing Winds, Tarcoola Spirit, Miss Vixen
Medium Chances: Sam’s Image, Written Choice, Metson
Low Chances: Vainstream, Tycoon Dancer, Snitzepeg
Very Low Chances: Equestria, Gaudi, Southern Turf
Expected Speed: Strong speed expected 3-8L above benchmark.
Comments: Nature Strip is obviously the best horse on form and has tactical speed – obvious favourite. Prevailing Winds will settle forward from the barrier and has to be respected off the last start run. Miss Vixen and Deprive look the main dangers along with Tacoola Spirit from further back.
Caulfield Race 6 – 1600m – Spendthrift Australia 3YO VOBIS Sires
1. Cliff’s Edge: Lengths better on best runs than these. Sets his own speed out front. Disappointed last start over 2000m so back to 1600m here which for mine looks ideal. Hard to get past.
2. Mahamedeis: Disappointed last start in the Bendigo Guineas coming off a solid Flemington win over 2000m. Query best good enough to get close.
3. Can’t Remember: Class 1 winner three back and couldn’t win BM-64s since. Surely just take on.
4. Indernile: Not the worst the last two starts. Best run this prep was 3 back over 1400m. Go fine here at this distance.
5. Barbeque: Blinkers first time. Been up a long time this prep 7th up here and hasn’t won the past 5 starts. Going well enough to figure and respect but needs to go to another level here.
6. Street Sheik: Two solid runs in a row in easier class. Just missed on both occasions. Harder here but certainly a chance if improves again.
8. Boss Tweed: Blinkers first time. Nice run on lead in but big step up again here. Started $91 last start for a reason.
9. Elite Drake: Lightly raced type. Couldn’t win a maiden. Hasn’t run time.
10. Pure Scot: Nice type for the Hayes stable. Hard to ride and certainly inconsistent. 4th in a Group 2 over 1400m so have to respect.
11. Temple of Bel: Changed stable after a poor first up run. Previous prep won well at course over 1600m beating some nice types in good time.
13. Pres de Toi: Class 1 winner on the lead in. Wasn’t a great time run. Up in distance but best may not be good enough on what we have seen recently? Did run 1L off Cliffs Edge in the past though so hard to ignore.
14. Royal Parade: Horrible. Not even close in Maidens. Surely not?
Top Chances: Cliff’s Edge
High Chances: Barbeque, Indernile, Temple of Bel
Medium Chances: Mahamedeis, Street Sheik, Pure Scot, Pres de Toi
Low Chances: Boss Tweed
Very Low Chances: Can’t Remember, Elite Drake, Royal Parade
Expected Speed: Cliff’s Edge to run them along around 5L-10L above benchmark
Comments: Cliff’s Edge the obvious standout. Hard to see anything improving past the horse unless Cliff’s Edge isn’t on his game. If that is to occur, Barbeque and Indernile have been running very well on the lead in while Street Shiek and Temple of Bel are both going the right way.
Caulfield Race 7 – 1100m – Ladbrokes Bel Esprit Stakes
2. Santa Ana Lane: Group 1 winner last prep. Goes fine over 1200m but best is over the 1400m distance based on past results. Query over first up form and mapped position.
3. Bons Away: Strong run in the Oakleigh Plate before failing to fire a shot in the William Reid. Callow jumps on here. Maps well.
4. First Among Equals: Just ignore first up run and rate on best in the past. Best run of last two preps still would probably be short of winning this. Need to run a career peak.
5. Bassett: Blinkers first time. Two disappointing runs this prep. Good type Listed winner in the past. Nice run 4th to Ashlor last start but no match. Need to improve with the gear change.
6. Rock ‘n’ Gold: Consistent type. Listed winner four back and not the worst run int he Oakleigh Plate. Finished off well behind Ashlor but was no match off the slow tempo. Not sure we have seen the best of this horse yet?
7. Thermal Current: Just missed last start at Moonee Valley over the 955m. Steps back up to 1100m where ran very well five back. Well enough in here and will run well.
9. Malibu Style: Group 2 placeds last prep over this distance. Two starts this prep but disappointed both times. 36 days between runs – best would go well here.
10. Husson Eagle: Three big runs this prep but hasn’t won but gone very close every time. Hasn’t see a race with speed all prep. Might get it here.
11. Sprightly Lass: Strong 2nd in Group 3 class last start at Rosehill. Was a career peak. Good type of horse. Likely leader.
12. Property: Three trials on lead in. Skipped previous start at Bendigo which is a concern. Top quality horse that has to be respected on very best, but yet to prove it in the past year.
13. Secret Trail: Just 0.5L off a win last start behind Sprightly Lass. Runs in past suggest it wasn’t just a one off. Horse is flying and big chance.
Top Chances: Sprightly Lass, Secret Trail
High Chances: Bons Away, Thermal Current, Husson Eagle
Medium Chances: Rock ‘n’ Gold, Property
Low Chances: Santa Ana Lane, Malibu Style
Very Low Chances: Bassett, First Among Equals
Expected Speed: Sprightly Lass to set the tempo out front – 3-6L above benchmark.
Comments: Tough race to bet into. Sprightly Lass will be well supported and that will only continue if the rail holds up. Secret Trail a big price off the last start run while Bons Away, Husson Eagle and Thermal Current all have the strong final 400m needed to run them down.
Caulfield Race 8 – 1200m – Newmarket Grandwest VOBIS Gold Sprint
1. Keen Array: Maps for an ideal spot throughout. Has a strong finish and will be coming late. First up query?
2. Rich Charm: Best horse in the race… has an elite final 400m off a fast or slow tempo. Good trial between runs. Query on position with the speed expected.
3. Demonstrate: Two wins in a row. Hard to dismiss but believe his ability is limited and found the two right races the previous starts.
4. Fast Cash: Hasn’t gone close to form needed to measure up in this all prep. Hard to suggest.
5. Glenrowan Prince: Best runs this prep more than measure up with this horse. Won two in a row – big jump in class again. Can run elite time early and break hearts if wanted.
6. Suspense: Disappointed last start after a nice MV win two back – ended prep there. First up here. Step below?
7. Lucky Liberty: Comes out of a slowly run race that didn’t suit. Best run three back didn’t tell us much as was just a sit sprint. Horse goes well but may need to run a peak?
8. Onerous: Last prep well below this grade on times run and data. Best in past would have the horse going close here, but change of stable suggests best is beyond the horse.
10. Ashlor: Blinkers off. Good on speed win last start at Bendigo when didn’t have to go fast out front. Never losing. Respect this horse and has shown nice form in the past.
11. Goethe: 3rd at Pakenham last start up into this. Big ask on past runs. No thanks.
12. Lyuba: Not fit enough first up. Brown off Allen on. Group 3 winner last prep. Respect big improvement here from yard. Maps for perfect run on speed.
13. Prussian Vixen: Tongue Tie on. Natural leader. Boxed on okay last start at Mornington but went too slow. Repeat of first up run would have her well in here.
14. Super Snob: Been up a long time. Fairly beaten past 5 runs and hard to see her going close.
Top Chances: Lyuba, Prussian Vixen
High Chances: Rich Charm
Medium Chances: Keen Array, Glenrowan Prince, Lucky Liberty
Low Chances: Demonstrate, Suspense
Very Low Chances: Fast Cash, Goethe, Onerous, Super Snob
Expected Speed: Prussian Vixen expected to lead them at a solid clip with Lyuba also on speed with Glenworan Prince. Expecting 3-5L above Benchmark speed.
Comments: We will know how the rails playing by this time of the day, but I’m expecting on speed to be favoured and Lyuba and Prussian Vixen get A grade runs on speed with the right tempo on. Rich Charm will need a good run from back into the right lanes. Lyuba is crazy odds and so is Prussian Vixen. Can back both and save Rich Charm.
Caulfield Race 9 – 1400m – TROA Anniversary Vase
1. Red Cardinal: First up with Weir stable off the Melbourne Cup run. Best seen 2000m+ looks to just be here for the run.
2. Calderon: Gelded between preps. Trialed nicely on lead in. Group 3 winner over 1800m overseas. Respect this horse has ability.
3. Amovatio: Continues to run consistent types this prep. Need to improve on again here and wants speed on.
4. Rhythm to Spare: Disappointed first up but wants a harder tempo. Stays at 1400m and 2nd up will look much better in the yard and run well.
5. He or She: First up here. Failed to go close last prep. Previous prep Group 3 winner first up over this distance. Would be rude to fully dismiss.
6. Fastnet Tempest: Going the right way after a very good Group 3 run from out the back last start. Stays at 1400m. Can improve again.
7. Theanswermyfriend: Went to fast out front last start and fell away quickly. Will be fitter for the run and much better suited here. Natural leader.
8. Flying Jess: Hasn’t shown much all prep but is the type deeper into preps to pop up. Win wouldn’t shock.
9. Snoano: Gelded. Best seen 1800-2400m+ overseas – struggle to suggest the win here first up.
11. Tahanee: Fell out of it quickly first up. Looks to want a few more runs? 1700m winner last prep.
12. Top Me Up: Strong runs last prep. Thought the first up run was solid when never suited over 1200m. 2nd up with a month between runs, can expect a run close to best. Could figure.
13. Land of Plenty: Got a slow pace and out sprinted them very easy last start at Bendigo. In the past has proven to be clear top class and no surprise if goes on with it here and wins again.
14. Tarquin: Failed badly first up. Previous prep not close to a win. Decent horse on it’s day but well short of best.
15. Jester Halo: Continues to run well without going close to a win in strong class. Jockey doesn’t change.
Top Chances: Theanswermyfriend, Land Of Plenty
High Chances: Rhythm to Spare, Top Me Up, Fastnet Tempest
Medium Chances: Amovatio, He or She
Low Chances: Jester Halo, Tahanee, Flying Jess, Calderon
Very Low Chances: Snoano, Tarquin, Red Cardinal
Expected Speed: Theanswermyfriend will ensure a solid tempo along with Top Me Up 3-4L above benchmark.
Comments: A strong race with many contenders. Theanswermyfriend looks very hard to beat while Land of Plenty looks well in here also. Rhythm to Spare looks well over the odds with a charmed run and is the clear value with Top Me Up.