Welcome to The Profits form guide for Flemington on 10 March 2018. Action heads to Flemington again for an action packed Super Saturday. A 33’c day is forecast with 20km winds around. Smaller fields give us a more confident betting card than last week.
Flemington Race 8 – The Taj Mahal 1u to win @ $8.00. 3u to place @ $2.60
Flemington Race 7 – Shillelagh 1u to win @ $4.40. Ma Jones 0.25u to win @ $16
Flemington Race 1 – 1000m – The Melbourne Cup Carnival On Sale Handicap – BM-90
1. Beau Rada: 8 runs at track for 0 places in the past. Moonee Valley proven horse. Has run 2L 5th down straight in open class previously. First up here after a long spell.
2. Demonstrate: Strong win last start off a slow tempo when booted home with strong times. Horse always goes quite well at Flemington down the straight.
3. Nasdex: Comes out of a sit and sprint where wasn’t suited. Previous run was very solid behind Group 1 placed horse. Back to 1000m ideal. Query if horse is a Flemington horse?
4. Sunday Escape: Strong on speed run last stat when got all the favours and still found one too good. Won last prep down straight beating So Si Bon!
5. Dance With Fontein: Wasn’t at top when won a very good lead in race at Moonee Valley. Goes ok enough down straight but never been fully suited by it. Loves a strong tempo.
6. Thelburg: Looked a chance to measure up in harder than this last prep early in runs and really did with forgive runs and then a brave 2nd to Ozi Choice off a strong tempo 3rd up. Goes ok first up.
7. Bullpit: Blinkers off. Lug Bit on. Tongue Tie off. Change of stable to Hayes/Dab. Good 2nd in Open class up in QLD on lead in.. but this is another step up. First up run was good.
8. Concealer: Looked a very good horse in first few preps. Last prep 0.2L 3rd in Group 3 class over 1100m. Best form goes well here.
9. Trevinder: Bubble cheeker on. Winkers off. Back from QLD preps. Failed first up. Hard to suggest.
Top Chances: Nasdex
High Chances: Thelburg, Sunday Escape, Dance with Fontein
Medium Chances: Concealer, Demonstrate
Low Chances: Bullpit, Beau Rada
Very Low Chances: Trevinder
Expected Speed: Average tempo early.. but Thelburg is the runner who could inject pace
Comments: A really hard race to get involved in. Nasdex is the best suited and on top but there is a huge query if the horse is best down the straight. Thelburg can go well and set a tempo if the stable want to. Beau Rada may be suited if they run it along.
Strategy: Nasdex to win
Flemington Race 2 – 1800m – Club Stand Handicap – BM-90
1. Harrison: Gelded. Untapped potential shown overseas. Stakes winner at 2800m and was stretched out to 4000m thrown in a Group 1. Only a few rating points off Holmesman but certainly not at the right distance to find very best. Best run ever a Group 3 third at Newmarket.
2. Magic Consol: Two runs this prep and shown very little. Steps out to 1800m where better suited… was backed last start so will be near ready.
3. Sin To Win: 4 weeks between runs. Went ok first up when they went around average tempo which should have suited. Expected to lead here at average tempo. Distance helps.
4. Riyadh: First up last start ran ok enough over 1400m. Step up ideal here with a few weeks between runs. Has won at track and in this class previously over similar distance.
5. Kings Will Dream: Unknown untapped potential this import. Good win last start but unproven off a strong tempo. Unless the Team Williams runner pushes them along, can’t see that happening. Ideally suited.
6. Wheal Leisure: Ear Muffs first time. Needed the first up run and ran horrible not suited. Step straight up to 1800m which is short of very best but not by much and has been well backed.
7. Willi Willi: Went forward tow back in a leader suited race and won well. Last start failed to finish off – potentially too firm on day and didn’t settle. Forgive. Best good enough back to Flemington where has run well the past 3 starts.
8. Bullish Stock: Average at very best first up over unsuitable distance. This is short of the horses best but did score a BM-90 win at course and distance 2nd up last prep. If speed on out front very well suited.
9. Pissaro: Horrible last start at Sale. Best in past over 2000m+ but won at 1600m in past also. Two runs back to date horrible.
Top Chances: Willi Willi
High Chances: Kings Will Dream, Riyadh, Harrison
Medium Chances: Sin to Win, Wheal Leisure, Bullish Stock
Low Chances: Magic Consol, Pissaro
Very Low Chances: None
Expected Speed: Unpredictable – I’d suggest slightly above average but every chance they got lengths below early if Harrison doesn’t push tempo.
Comments: None of these horses come into the race off a tough hit out and the tempo will be in the hands of the Team Williams runner Harrison who could determine a genuine tempo. If the speed is genuine then the likes of Bullish Stock and Riyadh come right into this race along with Wheal Leisure. If it’s a sit and sprint home then Willi Willi and Kinbgs Will Dream will be very hard to hold out from their positions in run.
Strategy: Back Willi Willi and Riyadh.
Flemington Race 3 – 1400m – The Hong Kong Jockey Club Today – BM-84
1. The Iliad: Bandages first time. Campaigned up in Queensland… more than a year between runs. Was an open class winner up north over further but also handles this distance just fine. Need to be at top to be in here.
2. Atlanic City: Didn’t appear suited on the day to the way the race was run last start and can return much better here in easier. Goes well at track.. wants a genuine tempo early to show best. Flying currently. Step up to 1400m ideal.
3. King’s Command: Suited perfectly last start at Sandown and sat OL and got the win. Not overly stronger here today but has to get the right tempo again – there or there abouts for sure.
5. Shakopee: Ear Muffs off. Norton Bit off. First up for 220 days and change of stables. Last prep won well 4th up over further. Struggle at distance.
6. Portman: Lots to still come from last start run so will be ideally suited here. Not suited first up and still ran a blinder. Suited here if pushed forward and slots in.
7. Prima: Brave run first up off a slow tempo and the horse was able to produce a strong sprint home. Up to 1400m ideal again – best seen in past over further but this horse seems to be going better than ever?
8. Tiamo Grace: Three runs last prep and showed nothing. Group 2 winner previous prep. Need to be back to best.
9. Downhearted: Ran a strong 1800m two back and then stepped back to 1600 and now 1400m here. Not impressed with the step back to 1400m personally.
10. Sunday Pray: Very slowly run race last start every chance on speed and just beaten. This is much harder.
11. Simply Invincible: Nice enough lead all the way win at Wangy and previous runs have been good enough to measure up here. Respect.
12. Notio: Near top last start and a picture in the yard. Ran well just beaten by tempo. Good barrier but would need to use natural speed to push further forward today or need a brutal tempo.
Top Chances: Prima
High Chances: Portman, Atlantic City, King’s Command
Medium Chances: Downhearted, The Iliad, Notio, Simply Invincible, Tiamo Grace
Low Chances: Shakopee
Very Low Chances: Sunday Pray
Expected Speed: No more than 2L above benchmark early.
Comments: Hard to see a load of speed in this race with only three natural leaders and the main natural leader not wanting to push it solidly throughout. Going to take a very good horse to come home and win from the back. Prima is the horse I feel the market is under-valuing here and will continue to drift out to a big price on the day worthy of a 1×3 play.
Strategy: Prima 1X3
Flemington Race 4 – 1400m – MSS Security Sires’ Produce Stakes – Group 2
1. Run Naan: Blinkers Off. Ridden too far forward. Will be allowed to be ridden quiet today. Hasn’t gone well this prep compared to what is needed at weights.
2. Sanctimonious: Never actually run a time that would test Group class. May get the run to suit ultimately today though and can improve with 28 days between runs.
3. Outrageous: Winkers first time. Strong Randwick run last prep in listed grade clocking some solid time… but two runs this prep shown very little time wise. Just have to take it on.
4. More Than Exceed: Bandages first time. Forgive run last start in Blue Diamond and run was better than it looked. Up to 1400m looks ideal and horse can improve significantly.
5. Seberate: Bubble Checker first time. Ran home well in the Blue Diamond for 4th. Clocked very solid times and up to 1400m on breeding looks perfect. Respect.
6. Tin Hat: Has been backed. Was suited last start when backed at Ballarat and won. More needed here to win.
7. Akkadian: No luck last start and still ran a very good race beaten only 2L. Up in class here the query but will improve and might well over the odds.
8. Syd’s Coin: Two runs on record. Both nice runs but well below what is needed to win this. Needs to improve again.
10. Titan Blinders: Blinkers off. Beaten by a good type last start at Caulfield. Times sound but improvement needed again.
11. Firstclass Dreamer: Only run on record to date is well below what is needed here. Very hard to suggest.
12. Not a Single Cent: Lovely lead in run for first ever run. Looks a very nice improving type and a win wouldn’t shock. Just a query over how much more to come as was forward first up .
13. Aristocratic Miss: Better run than it looked in Blue Diamond wide no cover. Need to improve though here.
14. Nasaayim: Did ALOT wrong first up off a slow speed time and over-raced significantly. Most importantly, found the way to win. Good horse.
Top Chances: Nasaayim
High Chances: Seberate, Not a Single Cent, Tin Hat
Medium Chances: Akkadian, Sanctimonious, Aristocratic Miss
Low Chances: Run Naan, Outrageous, More Than Exceed
Very Low Chances: Syd’s Coin, Titan Blinders, Firstclass Dreamer
Expected Speed: Average to 6L above average.
Comments: A very solid race with hard form lines to measure up. I have to go with the horse with natural improvement to come here in Nasaayim. Not a Single Cent looks good value in the race.
Strategy: Nasaayim 1×3
Flemington Race 5 – 1400m – TAB Kewney Stakes – Group 2
1. Bella Martini: 5 runs this prep going from BM-64 up to Group 3 last start when held up for runs and ran well 6th behind TULIP. Can improve here up to 1400m and maps well.
2. Seannie: Strong win first up in easier grade and then flew home again last start off unsuitable tempo from the spot in running to get 3rd. Up in distance suitable here and horse will want tempo on to test it. Maps to get back.
3. Summer Sham: New best it could be last start when jumped well and never being run down it felt. Times were sound. Improvement needed again to win at Flemington with the longer straight but expect to lead again.
4. Counterplay: Will improve for the last start run. Should progress up to 1400m nicely and has measured up in past. The faster they go the better.
5. Smart Coupe: Ear Muffs first time. Had to work early last start and failed to finish off the race. Looking for a softer time early to be allowed to finish off but not convinced 1400m is suitable.
6. True Excelsior: Ear Muffs first time. No chance first up from spot in run and improved to run much better last start in Group 3 behind Tulip at big odds from on speed. Needs to improve again to measure up here.
7. Palazzo Vecchio: Will be at complete top today. Last start ridden for luck and didn’t find run until final 200m. Flew home and just missed. If run as genuine again looks well suited at Flemington.
8. Shokora: Blinkers first time. Different form line to most in this. Ran home very well at course and distance the past two starts with different speeds. Had chances on both occasions but couldn’t get the win. Has to improve again against harder customers.
9. Mawzoona: Has some strong runs on the record. Been up a long time this prep is the big query. Needs to run a career peak to win this.
10. Stylish Missile: Been up a while this prep but still not fully fit? Up to 1400m ideal and has the profile to improve again. Needs to.
12. Platinum Angel: Two solid runs this prep but shown nothing to suggest a win in this grade and class.
15. French Girl: Throw at stumps. Shown nothing to suggest the horse will run anywhere but outside top 8.
Top Chances: Palazzo Vecchio, Counterplay
High Chances: Summer Sham, Bella Martini
Medium Chances: True Excelsior, Seannie, Shokora, Stylish Missile
Low Chances: Smart Coupe, Mawzoona
Very Low Chances: French Girl, Platinum Angel
Expected Speed: Above benchmark early middle and late – not super strong though.
Comments: Expect all horses to have their chances with way track and speed should play. Leaning to Palazzo Vecchio off a stronger tempo today while Counterplay will have improved loads and is the value of the race.
Strategy: Counterplay 1×3
Flemington Race 6 – 1200m – Lexus Newmarket Handicap – Group 1
1. Redkirk Warrior: Smashed the clock final 600m in the Lightning after they walked early… was able to run 31.61 final 600m which is low flying especially considerng the horse had to go around horses as well. Hard to ignore how well the horse is going. Weight only negative.
2. Brave Smash: 1400m back to 1200m here. Ideal run last start on a day suiting inside runners and on speed the way race was run. This looks harder again for mine. If they run it along, probably the horse you would back in from the 400m.
3. Lord of the Sky: Horrible ride last start. Low weight here. Could attempt to roll along out front – Horses best is competitive here.
4. Rich Charm: Ignore first up run when blocked and never asked for a run. Best runs in the past have clearly been when the tempo is solid. Will need them to run it along here to show best.
5. Rock Magic: Solid enough run first up when forward and ready to run. Low weight and well in here if can get the right ride. Has the sectionals needed especially if they go slow and he sits forward.
6. Supido: Strong lead in run first up in the Lightning. Looking for harder tempo today to shine.
7. Thronum: Continues to run well this prep and is now a genuine Group 1 competitive horse. Beaten 0.3L over 1400m last start, horse is best over this distance range… just not sure he has the late closing splits needed to hold all these out.
8. Fastnet Tempest: Blinkers off. Lugging bit + visors on. Nice type of horse but looked best suited when 1400-1600m. May be short of best at this distance.
9. Ken’s Dream: Broke the clock last start in a very slowly run race early when he sprinted home significantly well. Down 6kg here… win wouldn’t be a total shock if they don’t put speed on.
10. Lucky Liberty: Flew home last start from too far back in the Ken’s Dream race. Down 8kg here.
11. Merchant Navy: The testing material for this ‘quality’ horse. Best run ever was the Coolmore win when got the race run to suit and put in some great sectionals to get home the final 600m.
12. Missrock: Ran very well first up in the Lightning. Will be better suited to a stronger run race today and can go close.
13. So Si Bon: Blinkers off. Ear Muffs off, Lugging Bit on. Going nicely enough at home but will need the run compared to fit tough horses and looking for 1400-1600m.
14. Booker: Strong run in Group 1 class coming off a Group 3 win. Off 50kg here you couldn’t fully dismiss the horse.
15. Catchy: Blinkers off. Winkers on. Good lead in run first up and can only improve. Good enough to measure up and run well here.
Top Chances: Rich Charm, Merchant Navy
High Chances: Redkirk Warrior, Missrock
Medium Chances: Booker, Supido, Rock Magic, Brave Smash, Ken’s Dream, Catchy, Thronum
Low Chances: So Si Bon, Lucky Liberty, Lord of The Sky
Very Low Chances: Fastnet Tempest
Expected Speed: A few lengths faster than benchmark early/middle at best. Not Extreme.
Comments: One of the hardest races of the day as you can make a case for at least 8 runners. Wouldn’t be betting confidently if getting involved.
Strategy: Rich Charm 1×3
Flemington Race 7 – 1600m – Schweppervescence Trophy – Group 3
1. Shillelagh: Expect to settle more forward today. Third up. Never a chance last start in Group 1 when in an impossible position. Group 1 winner course and distance. Peaked third up last prep. Back in class. Horse is made for this race.
2. Montoya’s Secret: Nice enough run in Group 3 class off a slow tempo. Not the best lead in for a tough race like this. Need to improve but will appreciate extra distance.
3. Samovare: Ear Muffs Off. Battled home fairly first up when forward but not at top off a tempo that didn’t suit. 1600m ideal but big ask again and looks unders.
5. Spanish Reef: Very good run first up when well backed. Suited ideally by strong tempo and toughed it out. Probably leads today with less speed naturally in the race. Will ensure positive tempo.
6. Royal Applause: Brave lead in run when wide no cover. Up in grade here and up in distance having had a very strange prep. Has to improve again.
7. Ma Jones: Will improve off the first up run when stormed home off suitable tempo. Change of jockey a negative but does map ideal.
8. Jester Halo: Forgive run last start. Jockey keeps ride which is crazy. Tactics last start gave horse little chance. Good type but surely too deep into prep to trust.
9. Zasorceress: Two return runs this prep and been significantly beaten on both occasions. Had a big lay off between runs… Lane on key. Watch for a significantly improved run. If tempo is hot, can go close.
10. Tranquil Miss: Going well enough… had a 50 day freshen up and steps back in distance.
Top Chances: Shillelagh
High Chances: Spanish Reef, Samovare, Ma Jones, Zasorceress
Medium Chances: Montoya’s Secret, Jester Halo
Low Chances: Royal Applause
Very Low Chances: Tranquil Miss
Expected Speed: Genuine tempo will be set at least 4L above benchmark in the first half of the race.
Comments: Shillelagh is a legitimate course and distance Group 1 winner off a hot tempo. Gets it run to suit today and maps ideally. Massive overs at the price. Zasorceress is the big improver here that is over the odds along with Ma Jones.
Strategy: Shillelagh and Ma Jones to win.
Flemington Race 8 – 2000m – TAB Australian Cup – Group 1
1. Hartnell: Not suited last start by strong tempo early – finished off well late but no match for winner. Best runs have always been off average early tempo and if that occurs here (doubtful) then he is a big player.
2. Almandin: Blinkers first time. Will improve significantly from last start and looks ideally suited. Will be going back and running on late. Will be suited by tempo.
3. Ambitious: Glue on Shoes off. 119+ Timeform rating means this is a serious Group 1 horse. Hasn’t won since a Group 2 win in April of 2016 but has run some good Group 1 and Group 2 races since. Last run June 2017 was 15/18 though over the 1600m. Horse gets up to 2000m at most and loves a firm track. By all reports, the horse is going poorly since arriving here and may need more time to settle in.
4. Gailo Chop: Career peak run last start when allowed own way and made it a tough strongly run race. Key was last start not pestered on speed and won’t get that today. Has to repeat the last start run.
5. Ventura Storm: Blinkers first time. Ran on strongly first up in a strongly run race and that will have brought the horse on. More forward today and win wouldn’t be a shock on very best in the past, but certainly short of the horses best.
6. Supply and Demand: Solid horse in listed/open grade. Not a Group 1 horse. Here to be a pest.
7. Harlem: Ignore last start when had mucus which explains the bad run. Ran very well first up off an unsuitable tempo… best run in past at this distance with hard tempo on. Big chance to pop up and surprise.
8. Lord Fandango: Blinkers first time. Best in the past would be more than good enough here. Very poor the past two starts though so struggle to see the progression based on how the horse returned last prep.
9. The Taj Mahal: Gigantic win last prep setting a brutal tempo and out staying them over 2400m 3rd up. Proved to be a very good type first and second ever runs though. Word around that this horse is ready to go and a big chance here. At ideal here. Last prep returned elite 119 timeform ratings twice and if gone on from that is well in here.
10. Homesman: Very respectable first run in Australia. Flying at home but big jump in grade again and needs to run a career peak and beyond to win this.
11. Single Gaze: Good horse. Going well. Jump in class again. Another second?
12. Devise: Concussion plates first time. Group 1 NZ form over 1600m. Failed over 2400m when came over to AUS last prep. Hard to suggest for mine.
Top Chances: The Taj Mahal, Gailo Chop
High Chances: Harlem, Almandin
Medium Chances: Hartnell, Single Gaze
Low Chances: Ambitious, Ventura Storm, Lord Fandango, Holmesman, Devise
Very Low Chances: Supply and Demand
Expected Speed: Brutal true group 1 speed early middle and late
Comments: This race is set to be genuinely run. Gailo Chop is running at a career peak currently but I have queries over the horse being able to repeat the last start ratings being niggled which is why I respect the horse but don’t want to bet the $3.30. The Taj Mahal proved last prep that it is a genuine Group 1 runner over these distances and is flying at home compared to the rest of the Williams crop. The blowout chance is Harlem and can’t be allowed to go around without a bet.
Strategy: The Taj Mahal 1×3. Harlem 0.25×0.75
Flemington Race 9 – 1100m – Incognitius Stakes – Listed
1. Prezado: I think we ignore the previous start and rate the horse on his 3YO grade runs where he has won at course/distance and ran a genuine 3YO star to 0.8L in the Inglis Dash. Back to the right grade today after running poorly at Caulfield. If not ‘over the top’, then well in this.
2. Pretty Fast: Been up a long time this prep which is a huge concern for me. Won three in a row going through the grades and has traveled to Queensland and failed and then come back here and run well but not great in Group 3 class. Has to improve.
3. Regimen: Needed the run first up off two trials when ran a fair race from well back not suited at Moonee Valley. Has to obviously run a career peak but looks ready for it and is a lightly raced type.
4. I’ll Have a Bit: First up today. Last prep close 2nd in a Group 2 over much further. Struggle to suggest at trip.
5. Freeze Over: Proved to be the real deal first prep with a close 2nd down straight in open class to Booker. Two runs this prep – Was very forward last start so query over the improvement to come here. Best clearly seen when race is run solidly.. not sure she can win a sit and sprint.
6. Twilight Song: Nice type of horse. Gone through the grades well and had a month between runs to keep fresh. Big step up in grade here again but has the progression.
7. She’s So High: First up. Measured up well enough in top levels last prep over 1000-1200m with times that would compete here… but best was 1400m+.
9. Streets of Avalon: Solid run last start in a race with strong tempo early and late. Flashed home in the best ground. Should be very competitive here.
10. Written Choice: Huge jump in class coming off the slowly run race at Pakenham. Beaten $1.60 fav. Can run well but has to obviously improve.
11. Riel Reward: Finally got a maiden win. Gigantic jump in class.
Top Chances: Prezado
High Chances: Streets of Avalon, Pretty Fast, She’s So High
Medium Chances: Written Choice, I’ll Have a Bit, Regimen
Low Chances: Twilight Song
Very Low Chances: Riel Reward
Expected Speed: No natural horse in race to push the tempo so every chance this could be a slowly run first 500m with a sprint home final 600m.
Comments: Prezado is the standout here and over the odds. She’s So High may be the main danger if they go the speed i’m expecting.
Strategy: Prezado 1×3