Welcome to The Profits form guide for Flemington on 5 May 2018. A strong day’s racing is ahead of us and we take a look at the full 9-race card for the day. The weather conditions look to be suitable with low winds and a lack of rain about, expect every horse to get their chance. I will be moving my racing information in a few weeks time over to www.themailbag.com.au so please feel free to start reading the previews there from now on.
Flemington Race 1 – 1100m – Living Legend Graham Salisbury Plate
1. Graceful Storm: Two runs two wins last prep. Step up in grade once again here.
2. Aristia: Slowly run race last start at Bendigo and was fairly beaten from a winning position. Has to improve again.
3. Yulong Mercury: Only run last prep failed to fire in similar company. Right stable to improve.
4. Rainbow Girl: First up run ideal position but failed to finish off. Has to improve.
5. Black Label Lady: Tough run first up last prep at Ballarat and failed to finish off. First up here.
6. Perfect Party: First up got back off a slow tempo and finished off okay. Can improve here.
7. Beauty Option: Trialled on lead in and ran 5th. No exposed form.
8. Crack the Code: Won her lead in trial at Cranborune. No exposed form.
9. Embrace Me: Solid trial win at Cranbourne. Looks to have ability. No exposed form.
10. Moor Gait: No public trials.
11. Valse: Three lead in trials – forward enough in prep.
Top Chances: Crack the Code, Embrace Me
High Chances: Yulong Mercury, Moor Gait
Medium Chances: Perfect Party, Graceful Storm
Low Chances: Aristia, Rainbow Girl, Beauty Option, Valse
Very Low Chances: Black Label Lady
Expected Speed: Huge query over speed. Especially down straight. 6L below benchmark to 4L above.
Comments: Very hard to get involved here with unexposed form. Not convinced those that have raced are ‘that good’ either.
Flemington Race 2 – 2800m – Living Legend Efficient Handicap
1. Aloft: Failed to finish in the Sydney Cup when was smashed in betting. Previous start won nicely enough at course and similar distance. Forgive last run?
2. Benzini: NZ import that has failed to fire in Australia. Last start run wasn’t terrible.
3. Doukhan: Ran the race of his life in the Sydney Cup. Going well.
4. Sin to Win: Ran well but just missed at course and similar distance last start in a strongly run race. First time i’ve seen the horse do it well at both ends.
5. Choysa: Strong 4L winner over slightly further last start. Three back win was as good. Need to improve up to this grade.
6. Multitude: Strong on speed run with tempo on last start at Flemington. Ran near career peak that run. Horse going well.
7. Divine Sanction: 2400m winner last start at Bendigo. Times were average at best. Below these.
8. Sherlock Holmes: Horrible in yard last start and horse wasn’t there to race. One time forgive of the run. Can win.
9. Charlevoix: Solid run last start at course and similar distance. Has to improve again but going right way getting fit.
10. Sly Romance: Hard horse to suggest on previous form or lead in runs.
11. Weave: Never leveled up to this grade in the past. Can’t have.
Top Chances: Aloft
High Chances: Doukhan, Sin to Win, Multitude
Medium Chances: Choysa, Charlevoix, Sherlock Holmes
Low Chances: Benzini, Divine Sanction
Very Low Chances: Sly Romance, Weave
Expected Speed: Multitude will push a strong tempo on speed 5-10L above benchmark
Comments: Aloft is the best horse here – if you can forgive last start, it’s the horse to beat. Multitude at odds can run better than markets suggest. Doukhan and Sin to Win look the main dangers.
Flemington Race 3 – 2000m – Living Legend Akke Van Den Dolder Handicap
1. My Psychiatrist: Won nicely first up off a slowish tempo but had the turn of foot to beat that lot. Stays at 2000m and fitter for that effort. Maps well.
2. Smart As You Think: Strong second with tempo on last start at course over shorter distance. Has won at distance in the past – hasn’t won in a long time though.
3. Token of Love: Ended last prep with two very solid runs with speed on out front. Ran into some good types. This is easier. Has had the two lead in runs here – could finally be ready with short turn around and Melbourne way?
4. Zarsorceress: Four runs this prep and hasn’t got within 5L. Best last prep was off hot tempo.
5. Kawabata: Failed to fire first up over 1600m. Step up to 2000m more the horses distance range but really does need 2500m+ to find best.
6. Diamond Grace: BM-78 winner last prep in strong times. Freshened up between runs after went slightly backwards last start. May need to go to a new level?
7. Almalita: Led at a crawl at Geelong last start. Last prep ran okay enough times but has to go to a new level at this distance.
8. Bertwhistle: BM-75 winner last start. Course and distance four back 2.1L 3rd – horse obviously can measure up.
9. Lipstick Lover: Strong second last start at Morphetville. Continues to run well this prep. Has to be respected here.
10. Cedar Grande: Two runs this prep has been going around in easier races. Best run last prep 3rd in open grade – would go well here.
11. Diapason: Continues to run well without winning. This is a step up again for this mare. Has to improve.
12. Forever True: BM-58 winner. Massive class jump. Surely not.
13. Menegatti: BM-64 winner in country grade. Best is still well below this.
Top Chances: Lipstick Lover
High Chances: My Psychiatrist, Smart As You Think
Medium Chances: Token of Love, Zarsorceress, Diamond Grace, Almalita, Bertwhistle
Low Chances: Diapason, Cedar Grande, Kawabata
Very Low Chances: Menegatti, Forever True
Expected Speed: Token of Love and Almalita should ensure a tempo 5L+ above benchmark.
Comments: Tempo will be on and it will be setup for the very best runners. Lipstick Lover has a proven run last start over the distance and will be hard to hold out. Token of Love, Smart As You Think and My Psychiatrist have all the ability to measure up off the expected hot tempo.
Flemington Race 4 – 1700m – Living Legend Rogan Josh Handicap – 3YOs
1. Barbeque: Coming into this off a hot tempo at Caulfield last start. Best runs in the past will measure up here. Map a query.
2. Connery: Nice win on lead in at Sandown in easier grade than this. Times were solid and will compete here if gets runs in straight.
3. Ancient Echoes: Reasonable lead in at Sandown last start. Has to go to another level here again.
4. Renegade: Got back last start and stormed home for 3rd. Very good run. Expect to be more forward from a good barrier. Well placed.
5. Truly Discreet: Last two runs this prep ran well in similar grades. Fell out of it at Flemington when didn’t lead.
6. Coutinho: Doubtful to back up here.
7. Keysor: Maiden winner on lead in. Massive class jump.
8. Esposito Gold: Class 1 winner last start off a very slow tempo. Struggle to suggest a place on current form lines.
9. Found Out: Big disappointment first up. Step up in distance here. Best runs last prep deeper into prep.
10. Mieszko: Maiden winner off a slow tempo last start. Has some ability.
11. Princess Mia: Two solid runs this prep. Quick turn around here. Needs to improve to win.
12. Queen Leonora: Reasonable run three back at Sandown. Last two runs hasn’t found the right tempos to show best, but did win an easy maiden last start.
13. Uptown Girl: Best run previous prep would go well here. Hasn’t gone close to that this prep but has the ability on past form.
14. Indrabeel: Hasn’t been going well enough this prep. Best from last preps okay.
Top Chances: Renegade
High Chances: Barbeque, Connery, Ancient Echoes
Medium Chances: Found Out, Truly Discreet, Uptown Girl, Queen Leonora
Low Chances: Mieszko, Coutinho, Princess Mia, Indrabeel
Very Low Chances: Esposito Gold, Keysor
Expected Speed: Not a load of speed expected here with Benchmark to 3L above benchmark speeds expected early.
Comments: Renegade has the ability to run very well here at a good price. The market has singled out the main chances in Barbeque, Connery and Ancient Echoes.
Flemington Race 5 – 1000m – Living Legned T.J. Hughes Handicap
1. Gun Case: First up here. Consistent over the 1000m and goes okay down the straight. Consider.
2. Malibu Style: Ran sensational times last start at Caulfield and looks to have turned a corner in his prep. Well in at weights with a claim. Goes well down the straight. Options from the barrier.
3. Rock ‘n’ Gold: Doesn’t win out of turn. Last run down the straight over this distance was a win. Respectable last start from out back at Caulfield.
4. Lady Esprit: Did she peak three/four runs back? Ran her best races this prep off slowish times on speed. Could be suited by tempo.
5. Dance With Fontein: Four runs this prep and while won well first up has failed to go close since. Step up in grade again and down the straight – not one for me.
6. Proud Wolf: First up for half a year. Trialed ok on lead in. Low weight. First time straight.
7. Bullpit: Suited these distances. Short turn around. Goes well enough down straight. Query on class.
8. Out Gladiator: Best runs this prep have been on turning tracks. Two back run was really strong at Caulfield second to Crystal Fountain. Can run well.
9. Another Diamond: Couldn’t win at Penola on lead in which has to be queried. Best well below this.
10. World of Hope: First up here. Not the best first up horse nor the best horse in this grade. Pass.
Top Chances: Malibu Style, Lady Esprit
High Chances: Rock ‘n’ Gold, Gun Case
Medium Chances: Out Gladiator, Bullpit
Low Chances: Proud Wolf, Dance With Fontein
Very Low Chances: Another Diamond, World of Hope
Expected Speed: Malibu Style is expected to run them along with a solid tempo on speed. Anywhere from 3L-8L above benchmark.
Comments: Malibu Style could just repeat the effort shown last start to be a winner here. Hard to replicate. Main danger looks to be Lady Esprit. while Rock ‘n’ Gold and Gun Case have merits on past runs.
Flemington Race 6 – 1600m – Living Legend John Patterson Handicap
2. Boxachocolates: Just missed in an ‘okay’ race first up at Caulfield. Need to improve again here but has ability.
3. Galaxy Raider: Two strong lead in runs today and with more speed on here will be allowed to show us if he is a top class horse. Up to 1600m ideal as well.
4. Jake’s Hill: Comes out of the UK with a 109 Timeform rating with nice runs in Listed and Group grade. Two trials on lead in. If fit enough in yard looks really well suited here. Don’t dismiss.
5. Famelist: Won 3 of last 4 races. Big step up in grade here but last start went to a new level and proved she can compete at a higher level. May need to improve again.
6. Kilmacurragh: Close 2nd behind Sunday Pray at Sandown last start coming off an easy win first up. Best runs in past more than good enough over these distances to go well here, but the horse really is looking for 2000m for ultimate effort.
7. Zadon: Solid trial on lead in. Best runs in the past off slow sectionals. Doesn’t seem genuine enough.
9. Balcazar: BM-70 winner on lead in. Deep into prep already. Ran okay enough all last 3 runs but has to go to another level for this.
10. Four By Four: Unsuitable race first up but did run home well. Can improve significantly here second up and suited at distance.
11. Midas Man: Middle of prep won three in a row but has been significantly beaten the past two starts. Best over further.
12. Opposition: Waller runner first run in Australia. 2400m type of horse that has some ability but is an out and out stayer. Hard to suggest here.
13. Pufnstuf: Three runs this prep and failed to get a win. Stepping well up in class and looks tough to even place here.
14. Another Bullseye: Strong second last start at Caulfield behind French Emotion. Up to 1600m ideal and goes well at Flemington. Respect this horse.
16. Jacqui’s Joy: Hasn’t won or even placed in a long time. Four runs this prep and hasn’t gone close to a win. Last start run not bad but will need to go to another level. Weighted well.
17. Kazio: Ok type of horse. Won four back but not been good enough since. Best runs below what is needed here.
19. The Thug: Never placed from 3 attempts at track. Best runs recent preps well below level needed here. Struggle to suggest.
Top Chances: Another Bullseye, Jake’s Hill
High Chances: Galaxy Raider, Boxachocolates, Jacqui’s Joy
Medium Chances: Four By Four, Midas Man, Balcazar, Kilmacurragh, Famelist
Low Chances: Balcazar, Pufnstuf, Kazio, Opposition
Very Low Chances: Zadon, The Thug
Expected Speed: Three on speed runners and if they kick up Kilmacurragh could push a strong tempo 3-7L above Benchmark early.
Comments: Nice and open race. A fair bit of value around with a $4.20 favourite.
Flemington Race 7 – 1400m – Australian Trainers’ Association Handicap
1. Sovereign Nation: Good win two back at Flemington. Wasn’t enough speed on last start and he ran home as fast as possible. Wants speed on here. Ready to go.
2. Pilote D’essai: First up for more than a year. Trial didn’t show much on way in. Best over further?
3. Amovatio: Three runs this prep – slight step back down in class here. Tempo will suit.
4. Rhythm to Spare: Ran home as fast as he could last start when led them around simply too slow at Caulfield. Maps for a better run here. Expect to run very well here.
5. Akavoroun: Been off a year and a half. Horse is Open class but obviously had set backs. Lowish weight for this but horse has a lot to prove.
6. So Si Bon: Ran home well enough last start in a race that just wasn’t run fast enough. Horse has always run best off hot tempos and will get that here. Win won’t shock.
7. Raw Impulse: First up beaten 3L in not the worst run. Horse will improve going forward and had a month to train on. Best good enough.
8. Land of Plenty: Sensational late sectionals last start just found one too good. Was a slowly run race. Expect speed on here to suit the horse.
9. Top Me Up: Disappointed last start at Caulfield and wasn’t ridden to lead. Last prep best runs were here over 1400m with a strong tempo set out front. Will lead.
10. King’s Command: Failed to finish off last start at Bendigo – really disappointing considering the speed they went around. Will see out the trip with speed on here.
11. Jester Halo: Sprinted home well enough last start at Caulfield. Nice enough type of horse – can place but can’t see winning.
12. Fast Cash: Hasn’t shown anything this prep to suggest a win here.
13. Kapaulenko: Open class winner two back at the Bool and times were solid. 3kg claimer. Disappointed last start… but obviously has ability.
14. I Boggi: Didn’t produce much first up. Step up in grade here. Best below this grade on recent form.
Top Chances: Land of Plenty, Sovereign Nation
High Chances: Rhythm to Spare, So Si Bon, Raw Impulse
Medium Chances: Top Me Up, King’s Command, Amovatio
Low Chances: Kapaulenko, Jester Halo, Pilote D’essai, Akavoroun
Very Low Chances: Fast Cash, I Boggi
Expected Speed: Top Me Up to lead them along, Jester Halo to potentially pester. If they are here to win, Top Me Up leads them around 5L+ above benchmark.
Comments: Land of Plenty is hard to beat if this is a true test. Sovereign Nation the big improver while Rhythm to Spare will go around big odds again and maps a treat.
Flemington Race 8 – 1800m – Living Legend R.E. Mallyon Handicap
1. Boom Time: Solid lead in trial for the Caulfield Cup winner. Best runs in the past 2000m+ but 1800m should be suitable. Want a strong speed and goes well first up.
2. High Church: First up for nearly a year. 6L winner at the Bool so strange they haven’t targeted it this year as the option? Best more than good enough at these distances if right from yard.
3. Turnitaround: Led them around at Caulfield last start and didn’t go fast enough. Finished off as fast as the horse could go. Needs speed on and should get it here?
4. Second Bullet: First up expert. Solid enough trial on lead in for the stable. Horse has always been good enough for this. New jockey on says alot?
5. Magic Consol: Continues to go well through grades and has been under-rated the past two starts starting $41 and $8. Runs consistently strong times – maps well – low weight.
6. Tarquin: Solid lead in run at Caulfield and steps up to right distances here. Horse has to go to another level again – has ability.
7. Quick Defence: Found an unsuitable race last start too slowly run and wasn’t suited – still ran well considering. Better suited here – horse will still be at top but has to improve.
8. Penny to Sell: Massive jump in class. Only been fair this prep. Hard to have.
9. Brigadier: Beaten 6/6 last start at Cranbourne and before that 3L at Yarra Valley. Hard to see the horse measuring up.
10. I Am the Dark: 2nd at Morphetville last start in much easier company. Handles Flemington well enough, but big jump in class and big ask.
11. Radical: Hasn’t won in a long time. Wasn’t terrible the last two starts.
Top Chances: Magic Consol, Second Bullet
High Chances: Boom Time, Tarquin
Medium Chances: Quick Defence, Turnitaround
Low Chances: I Am the Dark, Radical
Very Low Chances: Penny to Sell, Brigadier
Expected Speed: Hard to judge the tempo here, but if I Am The Dark leads up, expect anywhere from benchmark to 3L above. If Boom Time decides to push tempo, we could see anywhere from 3L-8L above benchmark.
Comments: Magic Consol has been consistent and will be in the finish. Second Bullet can run the times required to win this first up. Boom Time goes well first up also and if times are run out front can go well.
Flemington Race 9 – 1400m – Living Legend E.J. Didham Handicap
1. Iconoclasm: Got the run of the race last start at Flemington. With a good ride early, maps for ideal spot in run. Suited here.
2. Lord Sundowner: Easy first up win well below the horses very best. Listed grade 2nd at Caulfield last prep would go close here. Horse has ability and maps ideally on speed.
3. Catesby: Nice horse. Two consistent ratings the past two starts and will go well again. Ideal from mapping.
4. Mr Money Bags: Got a strong win here last prep off a hot tempo. First run this prep solid late speeds. Expect to improve up to 1400m. Nice spot.
5. Eagle Ridge: BM-64 grade win last start. Yet to run times to suggest a win here. Hard for me.
6. Evil Cry: To wins in a row before up in grade last start and ran 10th. Hard to suggest.
7. Mr Storm: Best run ever last start and didn’t improve enough to get within 3L. Struggle to suggest either again.
10. Friedensberg: Maiden winner at Echuca. Didn’t have to show really anything time-wise and looks a big class jump.
11. Shenanigator: Maiden winner first up at Pakenham. Very slowly run but horse did finish off okay. If improves at weights not the worst here.
12. Naantali: Strong 2nd at Caulfield last prep in similar grade. First up off a slower tempo ran okay enough. Wants speed on.
13. Moana Jewel: Nice enough type of horse. Just beaten in much easier last start at Sandown. Has to improve.
14. Tbilisi: No match for Iconoclasm last start and had every chance. Has run slightly better in the past… same jockey tough barrier.
Top Chances: Iconoclasm, Mr Money Bags
High Chances: Catesby, Lord Sundowner, Naantali
Medium Chances: Moana Jewel, Tbilisi, Evil Cry
Low Chances: Mr Storm, Shenanigator
Very Low Chances: Eagle Ridge, Friedensberg
Expected Speed: Real lack of tempo and leader on paper outside of Friedensberg. Every chance it could be run 5L below benchmark up to 2L above.
Comments: Looking for a type that can do it at both ends and multiple tempos. Iconoclasm and Mr Money Bags both fit the bill here.