Welcome to The Profits form guide for 2 July 2016. It’s been a few tough weeks on the punt for us. We keep landing a good Best Bet but nothing else is getting over the line with a lot of seconds and fourths for our each way bets. All you can do is get back on the horse and have another crack and that’s what we are doing this week. A lot less units wise being output but I believe we have the bets all in the right places for this Caulfield track. Sole focus on Caulfield today to try and get some better results. As always, I hope your form matches up with mine! Good luck and happy punting.
Best Bet
Caulfield Race 1 – Tenappy Ladies to win for 3 units @ $2.50
Next Best Bet
Caulfield Race 7 – Lady Esprit for 1.50 units @ $4.80. World of Hope for 0.50 units @ $14.
Best Value Bet
Caulfield Race 3 – Spanish Love for 0.75 units @ $16/$4.40
Caulfield Quaddie
Leg One: 2, 6, 8, 10, 14
Leg Two: 3, 4, 6, 7, 8
Leg Three: 1, 3, 4, 5, 6, 8, 11
Leg Four: 1, 2, 3, 5, 7, 8, 11, 14
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use for the basics – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Our results are updated daily here – Betting Spreadsheet
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Caulfield Race 1 – 1200m – Catanach’s Jewellers Handicap
1. Gimlet: Well backed every start to date. Three runs this prep with a win at the bool to start the prep and two places since when well fancied in betting. Ran well both attempts and did alot wrong or had no luck on either occasion. Handles it wet.
2. Tenappy Ladies: Nice enough run 2nd to Artie Dee Two on a day when those out the front were advantaged. Has to improve onwards, but does look handy and the times from that day were certainly sound.
3. Wazzenme: Nice enough win on heavy as an outsider at Bendigo last start. Clearly has some ability.
4. Yu Long Sheng Hui: Looked a very nice type winning by a lazy 6 lengths at Wodonga in an easy maiden on a soft track. Looks to be hard to beat here.
5. Destiny’s Revenge: Big outsider when 3rd last start at Bendigo on Heavy. Has to improve.
6. Zartini: Showed nothing first up when did a bit wrong.. but even then… hard to suggest.
7. Sprung Dancing: Maiden win after a 4L 3rd the previous start. Has to improve onwards.
9. Navagio: Found little to celebrate first run in. Take on.
Comments: Two standouts on my ratings here in Tenappy Ladies and Gimlet. Tenappy Ladies will get the run of the race out front with every chance that he will be given an easy lead and be hard to get past in the straight.
Confidence 85%
Startegy: Tenappy Ladies to win for 3 units @ $2.50
Caulfield Race 2 – 2000m – Kevin Dunne Plate
1. Au Revoir: Well beaten both runs this prep over the 1600m distance. Up to 2000m but still wants MUCH further.
2. Kapour: Hasn’t won in over a year and first up saw him find very little. Goes well on wetter tracks but hard to suggest 2nd up over this distance… needs further for very best.
3. Longeron: On speed nice win last start at Moonee Valley. Handles the soft conditions and will like it again here. Looks the clear leader again from a good barrier. Hard to beat even at the weights.
4. Alcohol: Gets 2kg on Lonegron today for a 0.8L defeat. Hard to see him being as positive today in run either which could be a negative. Has to improve again.
5. Survived: Good win two back over further on soft. Soft again here today helps but really think to find his best he needs further. Has to improve at weights.
6. Self Sense: Never count this bloke out.. he is consistent. Goes well in the past in this grade and goes very well on the softer tracks. Running better than the stats suggest and from barrier 6 maps for a picture perfect run just off the leaders.
7. Manalapan: Irish import that ran 4th in WFA-G3 class over there in 2014. Hasn’t run within 9L of a win since 2014 which is a concern and best was shown over 2400m+ on good tracks.
8. Bondeiger: Hard horse to catch. Hardest test to date this and horse has never won first up… but Weir is a genius so never count this horse out… has to improve though.
9. Black Stardom: Nice win two back at Cranbourne on the heavy. Last start hard to rate because winner had every possible chance to just beat them from out front. Has to improve.
10. Celestial Sky: Hard to suggest a place for him on recent form.
Comments: I can understand the money for Longeron and Alcohol here off their battle last start, but I think Self Sense is the other form line worth considering today. Gets the right run from the barrier to sit just behind the leaders and should have every possible chance if good enough.
Confidence 70%
Startegy: Self Sense E/W
Caulfield Race 3 – 1700m – Crown Golden Ale Handicap
1. Royal Rapture: Nailed Leveraction on the line last start at Flemington in what is a high rating race for mine. Comes in well enough weighted off the short backup from the genius stable. Maps to get a spot just off the speed from a good barrier and looks very well suited.
2. Electric Fusion: Every chance both runs this prep. Up in class up in distance and down in weight, but even then I have to see a better run today. Never won on soft or heavy.
4. Pin Your Hopes: Three runs in a row over 1600m for a 1st 2nd and 1st all on wet tracks. Well up in grade here today but has to be considered a winning chance on previous form to date! Will get a nice cover up from barrier.
5. Scherzoso: Very disappointing as favourite on heavy two back at Sandown. Set to Rosehill and nearly got the chocolates 0.4L 3rd. Another soft track when really crying out for a good track. Has ability and will get a nice spot from barrier 1.
6. Temps Voleur: Every chance well beaten 2nd last start at Morphetville. Back down in class and up in grade. Not sure he is well suited especially from barrier.
7. Qadir: Been going around outside his regular class this prep… step back to this grade last start and out the back ran on for a close 3rd. Similar weight today and similar track condition. Not convinced he will be suited by the shorter straight though.
8. Yulong Baby: Goes around single figures again today. Best runs in the past have been around this distance. Ran nicely enough first up over an unsuitable 1400m. 3 runs for 0 places in similar class to this in the past though and last win was a BM-78. Has to prove herself.
9. Spanish Love: Eye-catching run last start when an absolute nightmare to ride for Newitt. Just wanted to hang and hang. I get the feeling they will ride her between runners for luck to try stick as close to the rail as possible due to this trend. Cleary if she went straight last start she goes straight past them for mine. Up to 2000m is the key positive.
10. Ramsden Street: Huge step up in class 2nd up when well beaten last start as favourite. Struggle to suggest.
Comments: Royal Rapture looks hard to beat here, but I just can’t go past the price on offer for Spanish Love. Go re-watch the last start run and watch how hard the horse was to ride out the final 300m… it just kept hanging and didn’t want to go straight. It’s better suited from the barrier today, better suited up in distance and suited by the track today.
Confidence 75%
Startegy: Spanish Love for 0.75 units @ $16/$4.40
Caulfield Race 4 – 1400m – The Grand Hotel Frankston Handicap
1. Jerilderie Letter: Fairly beaten first up this prep over in Tassy. This horse was a star 3YO over in Tasmania with four wins in 3YO class in a row including one over Howard Be Thy Name who four starts later won the Group 1 South Australian Derby. In well at the weights but questions over if his very best is over 2000m+ as seen last prep or this distance.
2. Stormcraft: Weir stable is flying. Another smart horse this one. Easy win first and second up in open grade. Back to 3YO grade and up to 1400m looks ideal.
3. Divine Mr Artie: Found one too good the last two starts. Back to 1400m acceptable and back to Caulfield suits. Has to improve onwards though again.
4. Equinova: Well beaten all three runs this prep. One to take on based on current form.
5. Little Bita Spunk: Had his chances the past three starts when failed to fire a punch. Not for me at weights.
6. Twisting Typhoon: Nice enough runs in first prep including a placing in similar class. First up well beaten and hard to suggest on soft.
8. Makatiti: Nosed out last start at Sandown. Previous runs suggest he has enough ability to run well here, but certainly not top pick.
9. Ragazzo Del Corsa: Great runs three and four back then found nothing the last two starts. I have to take the horse on here.
10. Big Knight: Talented type. Maiden win was very solid without going beyond what was needed. Will improve significantly for the run today.
11. Destiny’s Reward: Flew home 1.3L 5th two runs back at course over 1200m. Down in distance next two starts didn’t run well. Throw at stumps today up in distance.
12. Giggly: Nice enough maiden win but failed to fire the two runs since in easier grade than this.
13. Indiana Wolf: Maiden winner. Time was okay for a soft track at the weights. Very much suited up in distance. Win wouldn’t shock.
14. Rewarding Effort: Good win from well back last start at Pakenham in a maiden. Has to improve on that run though.
15. Kaptan Apollo: Every chance last two starts in easier grade. Maiden win was only fair at best.
Comments: Wide open race ready for the best horse to win. Indiana Wolf peaks my interests at near $20 with the 51kg… looks to have the progression but i’m not super keen to be playing here. Stormcraft is clearly the horse to beat but the barrier will make it tricky to find a run.
Confidence 60%
Startegy: Stormcraft to win. Also back Indiana Wolf
Caulfield Race 5 – 1200m – The Cove Hotel Handicap
2. Belesron: Maps to get back from the inside barrier. Three runs this prep in harder grade.. big step back in class and well weighted after claim. Best run was first up at course and similar distance but on a good track.
3. Ilgattino: Easier grade last start saw him get a win. Had been a long time between drinks. Similar track conditions today and a good barrier but much harder class.
5. Last Day: Well beaten all three runs this prep. Can’t see the progression required based on last two runs.
6. Caprese: Well backed last start when ran a strong 4th when didn’t get the best of runs in transit. Nice barrier.. will be getting back.
7. Lord Barrington: Handles all track conditions but never won here previously. Won twice this prep.. two back win was decent but Marwood isn’t exactly great form and previous start well beaten by Caprese.
9. Coram: Hard horse to catch or respect. Went around favourite the last two starts and well beaten both runs. Can’t suggest.
10. Magicus: Very good horse based on first prep runs. Progressed through to a step below this. Barrier makes it very hard to suggest a win today though.
11. Stingray: Another hard horse to catch… well beaten 2nd favourite last start in easier.
12. Camdus: Progressed through the grades very well last prep. Unseen on soft. Rawiller takes the ride a big positive. Goes well first up. Has been backed. Will push forward.
13. I’m ABlaze: On his day he is a very good horse. Loves a bit of rain around so no issues here today. Back in class significantly and well weighted from an awkward barrier.
14. Mick’s Hustler: Won first up in easier class over 1200m before an okay run 4th over 1400m last start. Back to 1200m ideal.. Never measured up on soft or in this class though.
15. Liten Prinsessa: Rough race to make the step up into based on two previous runs this prep. Not for me.
16. Not A Happy Camper: Back in class here today first up. Last run did pull up lame which is a big concern for me normally, but has had 5 months between runs. Goes well first up but no form on soft to speak of that makes you confident. Barrier 14 also makes things tough. Best is good enough.
17. Smart Dart: Disappointing last start run when previous run had promise. Need to see him go around today.
18. Heza Ripper: Nice win last start at Sale. Going well currently and can make the step to run well again here.
19. Jersey Whistler: Equal class today off a 1.6L 8th to Magnagem last start at Sandown. Up to 1200m doesn’t look an advantage for mine.
20. Reigning Meteor: Close 2nd last start has to be respected… back to dryer ground but goes well.
Comments: Struggle to see how anyone can fall into the price of the Waller stable favourite here, or even butter up on Coram again at the odds. Even Camdus is unders from the barrier. This isn’t really a betting race you want to be heavily involved in.
Confidence 50%
Startegy: Not A Happy Camper to win. Also have something on Caprese.
Caulfield Race 6 – 1400m – Ladbrokes Handicap
3. Royal Island: Maps midfield from the inside barrier. 3kg claim certainly important with top weight 4th up today. Back in class and up to 1400m most important factors. Loves it wet. Going more than well enough to win this.
4. Sadaqa: Goes okay enough first up but not the best record. Also handles soft and this class fine. Best runs in the past though have been over slightly further. Well in with claim and win wouldn’t be a total shock.
5. Great Esteem: Failed to place his last 7 runs this prep… can’t see anything today to suggest a win.
6. Duke of Brunswick: His a good type. Murdered two back at Sandown when wide the trip. Stuck on super that day. Beaten by a very nice type last start at MV in harder grade than this on a track better suited to leaders also. Loves it soft.. loves Caulfield and should have no issues over the 1400m here. Will sit just off them from Barrier 1 and we may have to deal with a heart attack or two waiting for Dwayne to get a run.
7. The New Boy: Up until last start he had been putting in some very consistent runs this prep. When this occurs, he goes into the sack for me for another run. Soft track a negative.
8. Ulmann: Nice enough type and Weir stable so will be supported. Been competing in 3YO Group races or Listed and above for the past 7 runs. First up today.. money will tell you all you need to know about this horse.
9. Vizhaka: Horrible run first up. Needs further? Needs dryer? Not sure. Hard to have.
10. Running Bull: Nice enough win last start at Pakenham in easier class and difference surface. Goes okay on soft but huge step up to get another win today. Should run well though.
11. Something to Share: Ran well 2nd to Arties Shore at the bool on Heavy. Really looking for further based on previous preps runs which suggests the horse is looking for the run today to me.
12. Live For Today: Well beaten last two starts in similar company. Back to a soft track may be better suited?
13. Sir Berus: Three runs this prep and well beaten on all three occasions. Well back in class but still hard to suggest. Needs further.
14. Bradman: Good win last start at Flemington. Much harder on this track today. Will be getting back and will need luck in running.
15. Marwood: Hard horse to catch. Been running well but not to this level.
Comments: Two clear top picks in the race with Duke of Brunswick and Ulmann. Unfortunately the prices put up for both runners don’t satisfy my requirements for a confident bet in the race. I’d need a solid $3.80 to be betting Duke of Brunswick today at minimum and $6.60 for Ulmann.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie Leg One: 2, 6, 8, 10, 14
Startegy: Duke of Brunswick to win.
Caulfield Race 7 – 1100m – Sheen Group Plate
2. Sempre Libera: 2YO winner. Started single figures in a Group 1 race as a 3YO. Hasn’t run close since that day. First up well beaten over 1000m. Hard to suggest.
3. World of Hope: BM-70 winner. Last two starts simply forgive runs. Can run well and win here.
4. Certain Ellie: Nice enouhg run 6th last start at MV. Up in distance will be okay today. Has to prove her worth to beat all these though.
5. Elegant Queen: 1400m back to 1100m a big concern for mine.. also up in class.
6. Miss Gidget: 2nd to Fontiton in Group 2 class as a 2YO. Maiden winner since and 3rd at Flemington in easier class. Hard to suggest first up.
7. Lady Esprit: Close 4th at Flemington first up. Very good run and can improve onto a win here back around the corner from a good barrier.
8. Anatola: Well under the odds today for an unproven type. Maiden and FMB-64 winner… then beaten last start as favourite in much easier grade than this.
9. Bel Chandon: Well beaten both runs this prep. Hard to suggest a win. Have to take on.
10. Doc’s Hero: On speed runner. Good maiden win to end last prep. First up ran a bold 3rd at Moonee Valley. Has to improve again.
11. Sky Dazzle: Beat home Doc’s Hero last start at Moonee Valley. Good enough run heading into this. Barrier a concern.
12. Ocean Embers: Maiden winner then failed both tests last prep after that. Hard to suggest.
13. Carterista: Unseen type. Not often you see them in these races. Money hasn’t come.
14. Parcel: Always suggested she had ability after the 900m win over Jameka but hasn’t proven it since. Can’t have.
15. Starvasive: Not a bad win last start in maiden grade. Has to improve.
16. Sew It Seams: Can’t win maidens!
Comments: Have to take on the favourite. Very happy to side with Lady Esprit while World of Hope is a big price based on runs coming into this.
Confidence 80%
Quaddie Leg Two: 3, 4, 6, 7, 8
Startegy: Lady Esprit for 1.50 units @ $4.80. World of Hope for 0.50 units @ $14.
Caulfield Race 8 – 2000m – Racing Photos Handicap
1. Hursley: I liked what i’ve seen the last two starts from this hard to train stayer. The wetter the better fo him obviously on what we have seen in the past. Back to 2000m looks ideal here also. Will need to get luck in running stuck back of the field the rails.
2. Albion Road: CL1 winner up to this grade. Massive jump that’s hard to suggest.
3. Strike Force: Up in class again here big time but looks to be wanting this distance. Have to respect potential.
4. Plymouth Road: Strong BM-64 grade win at Mornington last start on soft. Obviously harder race today but shown ability.
5. Four by Four: Like the odds of this horse but disappointed us with just 4th last start at Flemington. I think he is good enough to run better today from the barrier but will have to be pushed further forward.
6. Lunar Spin: Been running ‘okay’ in 3YO grade the last few runs but has to find another gear today. Stable knows what they are doing.
7. Fearless Raider: Untapped potential.. but barrier will make it hard to get a good spot and he hasn’t won above 1400m and maiden class.
8. O’Lonera: Last prep 3YO 2nd to Flying Light. Two runs this prep were horrible. Not sure what to make of him.. did win his maiden by 5L+ as well last prep.
9. On Wings: BM-64 win last start. Only just got the win also. Huge jump in class here and improvement needed.
10. Sacred Theme: Maiden only winner. Big jump required.
11. She’s Got Speed: Had her chances last start at Flemington when fairly beaten on the day. Previous runs were obviously good over this distance. Not convinced the soft track saw the best out of her.
12. She’s Got More: BM-58 winner.. struggle to suggest in this.
13. Vanilla Gold: Strong maiden win but failed to fire last start at Flemington.
15. Sagaab: Couldn’t win a maiden.
16. Valhalla Princess: Couldn’t win a BM-58!
Comments: Another wide open race where I have little confidence. Hursley is the best horse in the race but will struggle to make up the required ground without a brilliant ride. She’s Got Speed rates well enough from a good spot in running.
Confidence 55%
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 3, 4, 5, 6, 8, 11
Startegy: She’s Got Speed E/W
Caulfield Race 9 – 1200m – Schweppes Handicap
1. Vibrant Rouge: This horse has a history with late swooping at this track and just missing. Last win was a very good FM-GP3 win over 1400m in Tassy. Hasn’t run close to a win since but has been in much harder grades than this. Lowest grade race in over a year and a half. Gets in well at weights with claim. Goes very well 2nd up also.
2. Forgeress: Good win in harder grade last start with a low weight. Claimer jumps onboard again today… Will be midfield today i’d imagine. Suited by track.
3. A Lotta Love: Every chance last start when disappointed on a heavy track to run 2nd to Forgress. Back to a dryer surface but still not a good track like she would be wanting. Awkward barrier also.
4. Celeritas: Old mate loves the short distances at MV but also runs well over the 1200m. Best runs in the past have been in similar classes. Best runs on dryer tracks though.
5. Catch That Cat: Goes okay on wet tracks. Goes okay in similar classes to this. Inside barrier. First up run was horrible though in comparison to what is needed here.
6. Pink Perfection: Went close two back in harder company with a low weight. Last start well beaten a concern though.
7. Shades of Bella: DK Weir can do anything. Up to mares grade at course and distance last start and she got the win, winning well! Goes okay on all surfaces.
8. Chiavari: Comes into this off a strong win and two strong seconds before that. Barrier hurts. Can win.
9. Fast Approaching: Turned into a bit of a nemesis of mine this horse. I just don’t rate it, but it did get two wins last prep. Harder test here and first up over an unsuitable distance. Can’t have it.
11. Hotel Sierra: Nice enough runs leading into this but hasn’t won all prep for a reason. One of her hardest tests to date.. but never count our Weir.
12. Pilly’s Wish: Shown nothing this prep but her best is clearly good enough for this.
13. Soosa Rama: Very hard horse to catch. Her best would be good enough to win this, but best has been seen over further.
14. Kansas Sunflower: Three runs heading into this all seconds to good horses. Has to improve.
15. Sea Spray: Win over Telopea heading into this. Huge jump in class.. back to 1200m a big negative for mine.
16. Elle Excite: Horse with ability. Firs tup run good enough to measure up here but found nothing since.
17. Waitaha Prophecy: Heavy track winner in country.. hard to see here.
18. Jersey Girl: Not shown enough to measure up to this.
19. Belaruski: Couldn’t win a FMB-64 last start. No.
Comments: You could have 10 shots at the winner here and still miss. This is probably the ideal race for a ‘field’ quaddie selection.
Confidence 30%
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 2, 3, 5, 7, 8, 11, 14
Startegy: Shades of Bella to win.
