Full Form Caulfield 27 August 2016

Horse Racing - Australia

Welcome to The Profits form guide for 27 August 2016 from Caulfield for Group 1 Memsie Stakes Day. Our return to Moonee Valley last week didn’t go fully to plan with money back plus a little juice on our best bet and the other two bets not getting up for the day.. the track just didn’t play exactly as planned when doing the form, but we are confident of getting a result when we return there with the rail out 3m. Onwards to Caulfield today and i’m very confident in my judgment of the track with bias towards leaders. We will see throughout the day how that turns out, but I’m happy with how we are going to bet here. As always and I hope your form matches up with mine! Good luck and happy punting.

Best Bet
Caulfield Race 2 – Prince of Brooklyn – 2 units @ $3.00 to win

Next Best Bets
Caulfield Race 1 – Perfectly Safe – 1 unit Each-Way @ $6.50/$2.50

Best Value Bets
Caulfield Race 5 – Miss Promiscuity – 1 unit Each-Way @ $7.50/$2.50

Caulfield Quaddie
Leg One: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 9
Leg Two: 2, 5, 7, 8, 13
Leg Three: 1, 2, 4, 6, 9, 14
Leg Four: 5, 9, 12, 13

Tools

Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use for the basics – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Our results are updated daily here – Betting Spreadsheet

Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.

Caulfield Race 1 – 1400m – WeDrive Plate
1. Hot Dipped: Looked a nice type when racing in Tasmania last prep and ran a respectable 5th in the VRC Sire’s. First up run wasn’t overly impressive.
2. Sebrikka: Stable have a very big opinion of her and blinkers go back on today. Nice win first up .. had a trial between runs to keep her  turning over and by all reports she has gone to another level. Up to 1400m suits.
3. Leotie: Maiden winner first run this prep and then last start in the Quezette ran very well 2nd to I Am A Star… 0.1L to 3rd also. Looks a nice type and maps better today.
4. Perfectly Safe: Stable mate of Sebrinkka. Will be leading them around today and step up to 1400m looks the right move on breeding. Two back win at Sandown was a very nice Handicap win in 2YO class. Last start I think the soft track got her when beaten 0.1L 2nd. I feel she is really well weighted here and could steal it from out the front.
5. Smart As You Think: Yet to win a race. Three back run at Flemington ran 3rd behind Throssell. Has never got closer than 2L off a win and this looks harder again.
6. Another Bullseye: Beaten 5 lengths last start at Geelong. Previous start in a decent maiden grade race ran 3rd 1.5L behind Monkey Magic. Has to find a lot more today to win.

Comments: The bookies have this a race in three and that’s how I see it also.. but in a different order. I’d really keen on the chances of Perfectly Safe today knowing she will be leading them around and is well weighted in this race. Sebrikka looks a good type and all, but i’m not convinced her pattern is suited to how the track is going to play today.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Perfectly Safe for 1 unit Each-Way @ $6.50/$2.50

Caulfield Race 2 – 1400m – Catanach’s Jewellers Handicap
1. Maurus: Glue on Shoes today. Last run over this distance range was actually good. Last three runs were all 2000m+ distance range which certainly makes it hard to jump back to this distance today.
2. Escado: Last win was over much further (2000m+). First up run over 1200m found very little and this is still well short of what the horse needs.
3. Hi World: Hasn’t exactly impressed on the track in some time. Never placed at track from 4 attempts and new trainer in the Freedmans today. Last run wasn’t terrible but i’m not convinced of a win here.
4. He’s Our Rokkii: Moving up to the open grade races today after racing in 3YO level, i’m always willing to take them on especially when they are this short. Best distances are over further and he maps horribly.
5. De Little Engine: On the path to a Melbourne Cup run. Not here today.
6. Tarquin: Godolphin runner. Last win was over 2000m. Won in 3YO grade beating Lahqa over 1500m which isn’t exactly measuring up to be the worlds best form lines at this stage. Spelled and come back as a 4YO. Another well under the odds off 3YO grade form for mine.
7. Del Prado: Unlucky not to record a win in the Winter months. Had a freshen up since and will be nicely suited by a strong tempo today. I’d be riding for luck, but I’m convinced they won’t be.
8. Jungle Edge: Nice win on a soft track at Sandown mid-week. Expecting them to scratch him and not head here with a Good track predicted. Going well enough but i’d be taking him on.
9. Prince of Brooklyn: Oliver keeps the ride today after a very nice ride and win at course and distance last start. Fitness is well and truly on his side and gets in well at the weights. If Jungle Edge comes out, I can see Oliver trying to get an easy lead here and being very hard to get past. Really like him in this race as even if Jungle Edge runs, I have him going forward.

Comments: I have questions over all of the contenders here apart from Prince of Brooklyn heading up in class today. I’m really thinking POB can get the lead and get away with an easy win. Even if that isn’t the case, i’m more than happy sitting 1 out 1 back or outside the leader as the other mapped spots suggest.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Prince of Brooklyn for 2 units @ $3.00 to win.

Caulfield Race 3 – 1400m – HockingStuart Plate
1. She’s Clean: Ran a blinder three back when just missed at Flemington. Best runs in the past have always been over longer straights as she just gets very far back in running. Last start run was good once again but finds top weight once again… better barrier today.
2. Gabella: Always showed talent in her first prep after being shipped over from France. Measured up to similar class over there and last prep did get a 1.5L win in similar class at Morphetville. That was over further though and will need the run today.
3. All Cerise: First up run in similar grade last start saw her beaten a long way into 10th with no real excuses. First time at Caulfield and 2nd up record isn’t overly appealing. Never won in this grade and best runs are later into preps.
4. Vibrant Rouge: Stormed home late last start at Moonee Valley when it was all over for a good third… she seems to do that a lot really. Back up to 1400m…. 11 runs 0 wins at track and last win was early 2015… but she obviously is going well enough to content. Barrier 14 gets her well back in run.
5. My Sister Lil: Much improved run back in class last start when 0.2L 2nd to Nadeem Lass. Previous run behind ANdrassy wasn’t bad either to be honest. 1400m again and looks well suited. Only concern is 4 runs for 0 places at Caulfield and barrier 11… will be going far back in running.
6. Antelucan: Always looked a good type as a 3YO and proved it finishing off last prep with a listed 3YO win at Morphetville. This is a significant step up in class today though and her best runs were 1600m.
7. Anaphora: Found nothing first up at Flemington. Never won 2nd up in the past and wasn’t well backed first up either. Goes well at track but not convinced she is fit on that first run, nor good enough just yet to measure up to this class.
8. Daniela Rosa: Classy win over 1600m at Flemington two runs back. Had a month between runs coming into this and will be rock hard fit. Probably best suited back to the 1400m today and barrier 5 is icing on the cake to run well. Good track only issue?
9. Elusive Catch: Weir runner so watch for a plunge. Been racing up north this prep and hasn’t found a win. Back down here and into the hardest test she has had for a long time. Better on wetter.
10. Fast Approaching: Three runs in this prep and hasn’t found a place. Performing well below best. Hard for me to suggest on previous runs from barrier.
11. Majestic Lass: Horrible tactics last start cost her any chance. Certainly going well enough to win this today based on two previous runs… but she has to take another step up in class today and barrier is awkward.
12. Soosa Rama: Hasn’t won since early 2015. 7 runs for 0 places at this track is a concern. Three runs this prep have been only average. Has to turn around her form.
13. Lake Como: Looked a nice enough type as a 3YO. Average form race that she only just won first up. Massive improvement needed.
14. Ginali: Finally broke through for her 2nd win last start after some promising runs over different distances. Much harder class today and will be coming home late from well back.
15. Takeover: Just continues to run well without winning this prep. Up in grade here and horrible barrier make it hard to see her winning, but a place wouldn’t shock.

Comments: There are a few obvious chances on form lines today, but over the 1400m from this chute I want to be on a horse from an inside 8 barrier who will be position within the top 6 in running. Daniela Rosa ticks all the boxes for me in this race with Majestic Lass looking the obvious danger.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Daniela Rosa E/W

Caulfield Race 4 – 1200m – Moniek Sambor Tile Importer Handicap
1. Kirani: First up found nothing at all which is a bit of a concern. Goes okay 2nd up but never placed at track and coming off a nothing run… but has had a month between runs so don’t fully discount. Has won in Open grade previously so measures up okay. Big weight.
2. Bon Aurum: Best runs in the past have been 1400m+, but he has run well over 1200m previously. Big ask first up over the 1200m to beat a good quality field like this with the weight, but he did look a nice type the previous two preps.
3. The Justice League: Gelded. Imported from New Zealand where he is a Group 2 winner as a 3YO over 1400m. Listed winner over 1200m also. Don’t dismiss.
5. Spirit or Lager: Just got the win last start in similar grade at Geelong. Obviously significantly harder today and up in weight. One i’ll be betting around even from the barrier.
6. Camdus:  Improved onwards and upwards last start at Flemington over the 1200m. Up in weight but finds himself well in again here. Barrier 14 does make things tough though.. expect a 3-wide run or 2-wide out the back.
8. Lord Barrington: Placed the past four races in a row. 1 win from 8 starts in this class and never won at Caulfield. Not a genuine winner and barrier 20 counts him out.
10. Ventic: Hasn’t won since 2013! Last prep didn’t see any run good enough to win this. I can’t have.
11. All I Survey: 2400m winner last prep. Not here.
13. Manhattan Blues: Didn’t have much luck last start. Horrible barrier today and will be going well wide to get a run today. Have to take on today.
15. Grande Rosso: Looked a nice enough type last prep but best runs over further.
17. Black Vanquish: Could be back to his best today coming off surgery and a strong trial leading in. 2YO and 2YO-LR winner in first prep but failed to find the line since. Good barrier and nicely weighted.. if he runs up to his best ratings then he could very well win and win with authority.
18. Emerenta: Beaten 0.2L by Spirit or Lager last start at Geelong. Certainly makes it hard to consider her from barrier.
19. Chase The Horizon: Actually ran well last prep for mine with a close 5th in 3YO grade at Flemington. Barrier doesn’t help matters today though.
20. Honourable Tycoon: Never won first up or ran at this track. Never won in grade but did run well in it last prep to finish off his runs. Would have to run a top performance today to figure.

Comments: Another race where I want to be from as inside a barrier as possible with so much speed in the race. I also don’t want to be further back than midfield at the turn. Camdus is well under the odds from the barrier on mapping and i’m happy to take the horse on today. The Justice League and Black Vanquish are the two at reasonable odds i’d be looking to take while Kirani can run a blinder at odds from that barrier even with the weight.
Confidence 65%
Strategy: Back both Black Vanquish and The Justice League. Also have a smaller bet on Kirani.

Caulfield Race 5 – 1100m – The Resimax Stakes
1. Under The Louvre: Group 1 winner!!! Back to Group 3 class today at a track where he has won 2 and placed another 6 from 9 starts. 1100m is certainly short of his very best distance, but he can also certainly win at this distance. An absolute class runner… will be getting well back in run is the big issue today… but they will be running it along strong out front.
2. Shiraz: Looked a Group 1 class horse last prep and just missed with a 0.8L 2nd to Griante at Rosehill over the 1100m from the back. First up at Moonee Valley was slowly away and blocked for runs and never showed us what she had to give. Expect him to be a run short.
3. Santa Anna Lane: Beaten favourite his last two starts over 1200m when well backed on both occasions. Up into Group 3 grade after competing in 3YO grade all last prep. Word is he is flying at home and a good track will suit, but he should get well back even from the good barrier and i’m not convinced he can out sprint a horse the quality of Under The Louvre.
4. Redzel: First up run won well in similar grade on a heavy track at Canterbury. Previous preps did win 3YO-LR on a Good track over Takedown. Always showed ability. Barrier an issue.
5. Diamond Oasis: Good to see them back the move from the Pride yard with this guy now down to Weir. Prefer him over the 900-1000m distances though in comparison to the 1100m and first up I’d like to take him on… but would love to see him run well also!
6. Hellbent: Class horse. Looked a very nice type in 3YO grade last prep especially the win oer Mossin Around. Best runs clearly on Good tracks. Has to improve from first up run though.
7. Dan Zephyr: Listed grade horse as proven last prep. Goes okay first up and goes well at track and also distance… but his top class runs were 1400m. Barrier 2 should give him every chance, but i’m not convinced over the 1100m.
8. Trevinder: Ignore the fact he went around last start at Flemington and welcome him back to Caulfield today over the 1100m. Very well weighted back to open Group 3 rather than WFA-G3. Hard to deny the run two back and he is well over the odds today.
9. We’ve Got This: Class horse. Last prep finally put together some winning runs over 1200m. Goes well first up but this is his hardest test to date. Barrier 5 will give him chances.
10. Sunday Escape: Going forward form the inside barrier. Never run in this grade previously. Last prep found nothing. First up had every chance and not good enough behind Shaf who has failed since. His best is still a level below this.
11. Jersey Whistler: BM-70 winner heading into this but that was a heavy track. Just 1 win and 0 places from 12 starts on good tracks in the past. Outclassed.
13. Miss Promiscuity: Hard lass to catch this girl. Clearly loves Caulfield with 8 runs for 4 wins and 3 places and goes well in similar grade. Maps well and everything suits today.

Comments: This certainly rates as one of the most interesting races of the day with several top quality horses competing for bragging rights. Miss Promiscuity maps for a dream run from the barrier and has to be considered a top chance. Hellbent is a progressive type with loads of talent, but i’m not convinced about a step up to this grade based on the last start run. Shiraz is certainly a Group horse on previous preps, but is now a run short after not getting any luck or runs last start. Under The Louvre isn’t the most reliable horse first up or over this distance range either and will be out the back having run wide. Based on all the data, Miss Promiscuity maps to get a dream run and as long as the jockey doesn’t fall off today, expect her to be in the right spot coming into the straight. to claim the victory.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Miss Promiscuity 1 unit Each-Way @ $7.50/$2.50

Caulfield Race 6 – 1200m – H.D.F. McNeil Stakes
1. Defcon: Looked a nice type as a 2YO and won in very strong fashion at Canberra in Group 3 company from the back with class. Slow away in the Slipper and didn’t figure. Will position well if they have fixed the jumping issues, but that’s not known.
2. Seaburge: Looks the stables main Guineas runner for mine. Showed his class at Flemington winning a Group 2 over a nice field before failing on the soft track in Group 1 class. Nicely in here today at the 1200m first up and looking for further on breeding.
3. Highland Beat: Ran a blinder first up and should have won if not blocked for a run at a critical stage. This race looks harder on paper today but from barrier 3, expect him to get another charmed run and to have every possible chance.
4. Pyx Chamber: Tough barrier today in a strong field. Will find it hard to get a good position in running without sitting 3-wide. Measured up last prep to a nice grade and is expected to be better as a 3YO. Probably better over further.
5. Blue Tycoon: Been trialling really well at home and went two runs for two wins last prep in the topper class races. Also heading onwards to the Guineas later in the prep… Maps well from barrier 1.
6. Revolving Door: Beat Seaburge at Sandown but had the tables turned at Flemington. Fairly beaten first up over 1100m and is really wanting further.
7. Wazzenme: Nice enough run at odds behind Russian Revolution from the back at course over 1100m. Not the best barrier again today and will be going back again. Up to 1200m will help a little but has to find the next level again.
8. China Dream: Couldn’t win a maiden at Cranbourne last start… placed in G3 class but struggle to suggest on recent form.
9. Hardham: Looks a top class type on his first up run 3rd behind Russian Revolution. Oliver keeps the ride and has a big opinion of him. Maps well enough.
10. Awake in Grinzing: 2YO winner on a heavy track last start at Sandown. Hard to take that form over to a very dry track in this grade.. but you do have to respect at very least.
12. Simply Invincible: Last start 2nd in maiden grade. Really can’t suggest a place.
13. I’m Too Hot: Favourite last start at Cranbourne when well backed and couldn’t even place. Not for me.
14. Kinetic Design: Looked to have a lot of ability in first prep but didn’t measure up. Last prep well beaten even though the first up run had merit. Others preferred.

Comments: There are a number of horses solely looking for further this prep including Seaburge who I simply just can’t be confident backing here. I’d slightly lean to Highland Beat of the Hayes runners on fitness and mapping from Blue Tycoon.
Confidence 50%
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 9
Strategy: Back both Highland Beat and Blue Tycoon to win.

Caulfield Race 7 – 1400m – New Zealand Bloodstok Memsie Stakes
1. Prince of Penzance: Ran a massive run over 1600m last start in Group 3 company at Morphetville. Back to 1400m here and while he has always run well in this type of race in the past, his clearly being trained towards 3200m again.
2. Black Heart Bart: Been in Group company all last prep where he won or ran 2nd in all five runs. Only Under The Louvre and English found the best of him. His best runs were over the 1200m where he got his Group 1 win… the 1400m wins were as good but he didn’t get the wins in them is the issue. Another prep with Weir is obviously going to improve him though. Just how far back will he get today is the key.
4. Charmed Harmony: I’m his biggest fan but A, he isn’t going well enough on previous runs and B. it isn’t wet enough for him to find his very best. He likes this track but he was well beaten last start by Lord of the Sky and others and there was no real excuse. I don’t think this will be run fast enough for his liking.
5. He or She: Very strong Group 2 win last prep at Flemington. Has won at Caulifled in the past and run some very nice races, but from barrier 12, expect him to get stuck well back in from there today. Others preferred for mine to chase these leaders down from better barriers.
6. Tashbeeh: Massive step up in class and a bit of an ambitious nomination. Horror barrier. Will appreciate the distance increase… a good run wouldn’t shock.
7. Alpine Eagle: Highly over-rated horse for mine always starting well under the odds as suggested by being beaten favourite three of his last four runs. Only run in Autumn over 1600m well beaten 5th. Track reports suggest he is going well again this prep, but seeing is believing. Positive is he maps well enough today.
8. Mahuta: Pulled up lame after the 2.1L 6th to Miss Rose De Lago last start at course and distance just behind Lord of the Sky. I dislike backing them after such an issue and won’t be anywhere near him. Has to sit outside Lord of the Sky and will probably be used to niggle at Lord of the Sky to push the pace along? Be interesting if any team tactics used to get Bart the win.. you would think not with so many owners? Has to improve on last two starts to win but he has been going well enough to compete.
9. Tarzino: Concussion Plates first time a big concern for me. Always runs well at this track without winning. Clearly wants further.
10. Tavago: Massive 3Y-GP1 win last prep over 2400m. Won his maiden over 1600m+ which says a lot. Too short but keep an eye out for a solid return.
11. Palentino: Found nothing first up when 3.4L 4th behind Voodoo Lad when well backed that day. The money has come again today 2nd up up to 1400m. Is this his best distance and will he measure up to open grade? Well unders for mine even off the Group 1 win last prep.
12. Tally: Beat Palentino last prep over 2040m but no love for him today over the 1400m even though he won over this range in much easier grade last prep. Best runs 1800m+.
13. Rising Romance: Stable suggest she hasn’t ever been going better than she is today. Goes well over the shorter trip but will be looking for slightly longer I feel. Maps nicely enough from the barrier is the big positive.
14. Sofia Rosa: Concussion Plate off. Obviously a very nice type with a Group 1 win over 2400m…. won over 1300m as a 3YO as well but this is a big step up in class to beat all these and last time they tried to measure her up over these distances in Australia she didn’t get the job done. Take on.

Comments: On my ratings there really are only seven horses that can win this race today and as you know, i’m wanting to be on the leaders again. This race was turned on it’s head with Lord of the Sky scratched this morning, but i’m convinced now that Mahuta is the horse to beat from the on speed spot, while Bart is the clear danger. If playing here i’d need to be on both runners.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie Leg Two: 2, 5, 7, 8, 13
Strategy: Mahuta to win. Saver bet Black Heart Bart

Caulfield Race 8 – 1700m – MyPunter.Com Heatherlie Stakes
1. Almoonqith: Melbourne Cup bound, Moony’s best runs have clearly been over further than this distance today. Expect a good run but struggle to suggest the win especially from the barrier going back in run.
2. Taiyoo: Old mate’s best runs have been over further in the past, but he is pretty handy over this distance. His first up run was fine and will take improvement from it, but he has to improve onwards again at the weights given today.
3. Tall Ship: Looked to be a potential superstar two preps back but has failed to go on with it just yet. First up found nothing and needs further.
4. Magnapal: Lovely run last start over the 1400m and looks well suited up to the 1700m. Will be competitive from a very good barrier more forward today.
5. Arab Dawn: Godolphin runner who got a listed win over 1900m last prep but failed in all other runs. Goes well first up but this may just be slightly too short for him to find his best. .
6. Longeron: Just ignore the last start run and rate on his best runs previous to that. Back to 1700m not an issue.. expect him to be suited by a rolling tempo and to be in it all the way to the end. Ground today the only negative.
7. Provocative: NZ import. Lazy 3 length winner in Group 1 class as a 3YO over 2400m only run in AUS. 2 months between runs, her very best runs have been 2000m+ is the big issue here today… look for better runs heading towards runs like the Caulfield Cup.
8. Berisha: Ran solidly without showing much first up. Heading to a Caulfield Cup. Goes well enough at these distances but others clearly preferred.
9. Tom Melbourne: This bloke proved last prep that he was the real deal. Comes back strongly here today on a firm track over a suitable distance where he is expected to push forward and set a strong tempo and simply try and break their hearts.
10. Nordic Flight: German import. Won in listed grade over 2200m and was WFA-G3 placed over 2800m. Probably still needs further and needs the run.
11. Second Bullet: Never runs a bad race over any distance really and handles 1700-1900 distance range perfectly.. with 2000m his very best. Has to produce a career high run at this distance to be competitive today.
12. Lord Durante: Continues to run well without winning races. Will be suited again by a strong tempo but won’t be winning it.
13. Pinstripe Lane: Hasn’t won since 2014 and hasn’t really been close in this grade range in a long time. Take him on after that first up run.
14. Great Esteem: Surprise winner last start at course over 1600m in much easier from on speed on a day suited to on speed runners. Should run well today but much harder and won’t find any easy lead.

Comments: Not the best betting race you will ever find. I couldn’t take the price on Tom Melbourne here even though he will be leading and running well. I’d be a slight lean to Longeron from Magnapal.. but no confidence in the race honestly. I’d have a slight watch for Almoonqith over the top late also.
Confidence 40%
Quaddie Leg Three:  1, 2, 4, 6, 9, 14
Strategy: Almoonqith @ $8.50 to place.

Caulfield Race 9 – 1200m – Ladbrokes Cockram Stakes
1. Don’t Doubt Mamma: Group winner in 3YO grade and always proved to be a talented horse. Best runs were over further though with 1400m.. but did win over 1100m also. Gets far back in runs which is an issue here.
2. Thames Court: Huge disappointment to finish last prep with no excuses after a Group 3 win at Moonee Valley over an average bunch. Will run well over 1200m but better over further. Maps well.
4. Jessy Belle: Always seems to run well but hasn’t won in a very long time. Last prep didn’t get a win. Similar class here today also.. should run well enough from barrier and looks okay in at the weights. New stable and no trial so will be fresh.
5. Choose: Seems to pop up and win these types of races all the time. Very strong first up record and goes very well over the 1200m distance. Only issue is 4 runs for 0 wins at track but has placed twice. Good barrier and should lead.
6. Awasita: Maps nicely just off the speed coming into this off a heavy track win and an okay enough run 4th behind Ocean Embers. Has to improve onwards again today to measure up and win.
7. A Lotta Love: Hugely disappointing last start at Flemington after three very solid runs prior. Back to Caulfield should suit and dryer track no disadvantage at all. Barrier is what hurts and will be a long way back in run.
8. Kayjay’s Joy: Pulled a muscle in July that has kept her out until now. Great trial heading into this. Won 3 of the last 6 runs including a Mares grade win. Has class but barrier takes it tough.
9. Telopea: Finally got the job done last start in mares grade at Flemington. Back to a dryer track actually more suited here today and barrier 2 has her in an ideal spot. Big chance.
10. Miss Softhands: Hasn’t really gone close either run this prep and i’m happy to take her on again.
11. Andrassy: No easy front running ride today unlike last start for us at course and distance. Does look okay enough in again to be considered a chance, but she will have to settle for at best a sit outside the leader.
12. Mossin’ Around: Loved her last start run when never got clear and was rocketing home at the time. I have no doubt she would have been right in the finish with Ocean Embers at very least. Tough barrier is the issue today but it’s better to be wider late in the day than looking for a run and getting blocked again.
13. Ocean Embers: Fairly strong win last start at course over 1100m holding out Cana. Will be out the back again from barrier 16 which will certainly make things hard, but she does have the class to win this even from there.
14. Cana: Had a dream run last start at Caulfield when found one too good in Ocean Embers. Will be pushing forward to an on speed spot again and will give her all.
15. Egypt: Showed a load of talent as a 3YO with placing in Group grade. She would need to have gone to the next level this prep and further to be winning this.

Comments: Taking a risk in the last and going shorter than normal, there are four main chances and they are the way i’d be happy to play this.
Confidence 60%
Quaddie Leg Four: 5, 9, 12, 13
Strategy: Telopea E/W

Author

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The Profits

The Profits was first created in 2010 as a hub for owners Drew and Euan to share their knowledge. Since then, our team has expanded over the years, and we now have eight individual writers now employed to share their knowledge on specific sports. “Surround yourself with the dreamers and the doers, the believers and thinkers, but most of all, surround yourself with those who see the greatness within you, even when you don’t see it yourself.”

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