Welcome to The Profits form guide for Derby Day at Flemington on the 31 October 2015. The start of the Flemington Carnival and we have rain on the radar. While it shouldn’t get the course too wet, it will provide some of our bets today with the ideal amount of give in the ground to let down which is critical. Last week we landed our Best Bet again which is always the main goal, but we were off the mark taking on Winx and paying the price in the Cox Plate. The races today will shape the final field for the Melbourne Cup and while there are some decent types going around to take a final spot in the race, i can’t see any of them going onto win the cup. Keep dry, stay safe and bet within your limits. As always, i hope your form matches up with mine. Good luck and happy punting.
Melbourne Best Bet
Flemington Race 8 – Royal Descent – to place
Last 6 runs over 1400m-2000m have been in Group 1s (4) and Group 2s (2) for the following placings: 3rd, 2nd, 2nd, 2nd,3rd and 1st. We are getting better than even money today for a horse back to her sex today and back to what on paper is her ideal trip. Rated SIGNIFICANTLY shorter. I couldn’t trust her to win, but on ratings, there is a solid 2 lengths at these weights between her and the 4th best horse in the race. Maps perfectly.
Melbourne Next Best Bet
Flemington Race 9 – Under The Louvre – Each-Way
3 units to place 2 units to win ratio. Much like with Charmed Harmony, Under The Louvre is a horse I’ve been following and following and following for a long time. It’s hard to resist a horse with such consistency… having placed in 13 of his last 14 runs you know what to expect run wise today. The place price is anywhere between $1.80 and $1.91 depending where you are betting currently giving us what looks a VERY good throw at the stumps on such a consistent horse.
Melbourne Best Each-Way Bet
Flemington Race 3 – Charmed Harmony – Each-Way
Oh look, is this a biased pick or is it simply value? We didn’t tip him last start in the Group 1 at Caulfield and he was MASSIVE. He ran far beyond what i expected with a 3-wide run on unsuitable ground… he meets the favourite MUCH better at the weights today for a 1 length defeat and gets the softness required in the ground. Will be leading and will be hard to run past. Will trade low in running. I really hope Opie kicks them along much further out than they have been on him the last few starts. Rated much shorter.
Melbourne Quaddie
Quaddie Leg One: 2, 3, 5, 7, 13, 14
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 3, 5, 7, 8, 9, 13
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 4, 5, 6, 15
Quaddie Leg Four: 3, 5, 6, 8, 9, 10
We have gone very wide today in the Quaddie. There looks to be every possible chance that double figure odds runners could win all four legs which would add a lot of value into the Quaddie. We are looking for at least two outsiders ($10 or above) to make a profit. Couldn’t go any shorter without removing the value from the price we are getting.
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Flemington Race 1 – 1600m – Carbine Club Stakes
1. Takedown: Very poor run after knuckling at the start in the Gothic Stakes. Previous run behind Exosphere was solid. Forgive last start.
3. Bassett: Unseen on wetter surfaces. Well beaten in the Guineas but stays at 1600m. Win over Keen Array over 1100m was decent. Obviously looks a good type but has to improve onwards again.
4. Mahuta: Very strong win two back at Kyneton and then last start in the Gothic Stakes on speed won very well at big odds holding off Holler who has come out since and won a Group race by 4.3 lengths! Very good form lines.
5. Montauk: Sydney form. Ignore two back run and rate on last start. Won well enough from an on speed location but certainly has to take another step up. Barrier helps.
6. Gredington: Out the back in a small field in the Stutt Stakes at Moonee Valley last start. Ran home quite well for 3rd behind Sovereign Nation and Get The Picture. Form looks solid enough and fair to see them fancy him here.
7. He’s Our Rokkii: Expected to sit out the back in the race. Two solid runs in a row but has to improve.
8. Patch Adams: Made the jump up in grade last start and was decent in the Stutt Stakes. Not good enough to consider here though.
9. Tivaci: Looked a good chance two back at course over 1800m and ran well, but was no match for the winner. Back to 1600m from 2000m after not getting the distance. Has to improve.
10. Flying Light: Well beaten by Mahuta and Holler last start. Hard to have on that run.
11. Deadly Shadow: Tough to the line last start at Flemington in a surprise front running ride. Will be trying to set a strong tempo again today and up to 1600m a positive. Looks good.
Comments: Massive price on offer today for Mahuta on the Each-Way considering the win of Holler last week! Very happy to take these odds.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Mahuta on the Each-Way.
Flemington Race 2 – 2000m – Mumm Wakeful Stakes
1. My Poppette: On speed given a slow tempo, kicked away and won easy last start. Rate on previous runs as well as that last run. Clearly a good horse but take last start with a grain of salt as she won’t get it that easy again
2. Dawnie Perfect: Looks a very nice horse in the making and won well in the Ethereal last start at Caulfield from the back. Will really improve on that run and enjoy the distance. Big chance if they run this along.
3. The Grey Flash: Failed to measure up the last two runs this prep. G3 winner last prep. Not sure I can trust the horse to produce a winning run here.
4. Ambience: Very strong win over 1600m two runs back, but last start at Caulfield was made to do too much work with a strong tempo on out the front and it was really set up for others to win. Clearly a good horse but didn’t get a strong 2000m. Maps well.
5. Beluga Blue: Won an average affair last start at Morphetville. Big step up in class here today.
6. Bengal Cat: Every chance last start on speed and well beaten by My Poppette. Hard to see the improvement up to 2000m.
7. Lazumba: Well beaten all three runs this prep. Might be wanting the distance but struggle to back on what we have seen so far.
9. Bannatyne: Well beaten last two runs over 1600m and 2000m in this type of class. Did obviously stay on strongly enough setting up a tough pace. Will still have to improve on the last start run again today if leading at that tempo.
10. Muzyka: 5 length maiden win over 2100m. Didn’t exactly beat much that day but 3rd did run 12 lengths off them and it was a 9 horse race. Looks to have ability.
11. Ritzy: Average win two back at Hawksbury. Last start well beaten in an easier race at Ballarat. Not one i’m keen on.
12. C’est Beau La Vie: Maiden winner. 4th last start behind Beluga Blue. Have to improve on recent runs to place.
13. Zarabeel: Found his way to the line just ‘okay’ last start behind Ambience, Dawnie Perfect etc.
14. Dawn of Hope: Maiden win at Benalla was good. Ignore last start when a lot went wrong. Going very well at home.
15. Princess Aria: Not the worst run last start at Caulfield. Has to improve but can run okay enough.
Comments: There is little chance to be betting into this with a load of confidence. We know My Poppette, Dawnie Perfect and Ambience are all good enough on past runs and we know Bannatyne may set up a strong tempo once again, but it’s runners like Muzyuka that you just don’t know how they will measure up here and even Dawn of Hope with the Hayes stable talking it’s chances up.
Confidence 50%
Early Quaddie Leg One: 1, 2, 4, 10, 14
Strategy: Dawnie Perfect Each-Way
Flemington Race 3 – 1400m – Guvera Stakes
1. Famous Seamus: Running well enough this prep to suggest he has the ability to measure up to this grade of race today. Last start never on the track has to be considered in a race won by the all the way leader. Barrier is horrible.
2. Messene: Going very much the right way deeper into this prep. Ran very well two back at Rosehill just missing beaten by Vashka who has won a Group 3 race since. Last start 4th in the Epsom was a solid effort from out the back. Can position much closer to the speed today from an inside barrier. Consider. Has enough class.
3. Disposition: Continues to run well this prep. Just missed behind Stratum Star two back and then last start well beaten by Lucky Hussler but beat Stratum Star who has come out and won since while Lucky Hussler came out and didn’t set the world on fire. Clearly the favourite in the race on form.. certainly a tricky barrier today an issue.
4. Charlie Boy: A bit of a forgive run last start at Caulfield when did a lot wrong over racing and never got cover. Has to improve significantly also on the previous run as well in the Gilgai.
5. Kool Kompany: G3 winner over 1600m at Newmarket over in the UK. Last 3 runs included a good run 2nd in G3 company over 1600m. Clearly will gain improvement from this run today… obviously a good horse but not sure the horse will be rock hard fit enough first up in Aus.
6. Ninth Legion: Disappointingly 6th in the Sale Cup. Not beaten by much but it’s hard to have on that run in a race that looks harder on paper.
7. Charmed Harmony: He’s back! Huge price on offer today. Wide no cover in the Rupert Clarke the whole trip on speed and finished just 1.35L off the winners. Much better weighted today against Disposition for that run and is the only clear leader in the race, negating the poor barrier. Huge price on offer today and enough rain is on the way to hit on the day. Opie onboard a good addition as the horse is to be ridden similar to Turn Me Loose is.
8. Red Excitement: Two trials coming into this today. Did the same last prep with similar trials and won first up in much easier company and then won at course and distance in the Chester Manifold. I think this is the hardest company he has faced for a while though and will need to be at the top of his game.
9. Richie’s Vibe: Ran nicely enough two back but that race hasn’t exactly shown us a lot of runs to follow. Last start well beaten. Hard to see on the backup the required run to date for mine.
10. Mr Utopia: Handles all types of track condition and handles a strong tempo. Make no mistake about his first run and the result on paper, yes, he saved a lot of ground, but he was never pushed out and when he was asked to go, he was finding before having no where to go. Clearly going well enough this prep and has to be considered.
11. Hosting: Finished alongside Mr Utopia first up at Caulfield. Never won at track from 8 attempts… i had Mr Utopia going the better of the two last start and Hosting is giving Mr Utopia 1kg today.
12. Artlee: The wetter the better for this guy. Country Championships winner by a mile at Randwick with the bias that day when on speed. Won a nice race at Scone after that then came back with a respectable third behind Dothraki and That’s A Good Idea two weeks back. Has to improve for mine on that effort but up in distance obviously suitable.
13. Gracious Prospect: Always runs a decent race over this distance. Got two wins in much easier class over this distance at course last prep and ran quite a few places after that in harder races. Didn’t show me enough first up to be confident of a victory.
14. Good Project: Toughest test to date for this Waller runner. Won’t get an easy time on speed today is a massive issue from the wide barrier. Been carrying weight so will enjoy the 54kg off the tempo out the front. Has been running time so may just be suited? Can’t ignore.
15. San Diego: Hasn’t won in a fair while and that was a 0.1L win. Not the worst run first up over this distance… will be a long way back and barrier 1 will mean a lot of luck required. Not for me.
16. Sadaqa: Will be pushing on speed. Didn’t beat much at all last start at Seymour. Take on.
Comments: I can understand the appeal today in Disposition 1600m back to 1400m today back to where he won well first up in the Tontonan, I can’t see myself playing here without savering the horse with $4.5+ on offer. Messene is a horse I just have to take on but no way i can leave out of the Quaddie in this today.. the whole just finds ways to not win and it’s been a long time between drinks. Mr Utopia has drawn a nice barrier today, but the horse is best when ridden cold and with the tempo on, I just can’t see him making up the 10+ lengths required the final 400m. Good Project looks well suited on speed from the spot, but this is another step up in class and at the prices I’d much rather Disposition… still deserves to be single figures in betting. It comes as no surprise that the clear value in this race to me is Charmed Harmony. The rain is expected to sit Saturday now, not Sunday, and I’m expecting it to hit to make the ground absolutely perfect for this race with Charmed Harmony wanting a Good 4 to Soft 6 range. His first three runs this prep were very strong with form lines around Awesome Rock, Extra Zero and Jacquinot Bay holding up very well this prep. His run in the G1 Rupert Clarke was huge 3-wide on speed beaten just 1.35L… finds himself KG’s better off against the favourite here and looks the clear speed horse with only Good Project from a wide barrier expected to want to lead it up.
Confidence 80%
Early Quaddie Leg Two: 2, 3, 7, 10, 14
Strategy: 1 unit Charmed Harmony to win. 1 unit Charmed Harmony to place. 1 unit Disposition to win.
Flemington Race 4 – 1200m – Coolmore Stud Stakes
1. Exosphere: Clearly the best runner in the race, by at least a length. First time down the straight always a concern and drawn in barrier 2, will be very interesting to see the tactics from the two speed horses out wide and to see what they do on Exosphere.
2. Ready for Victory: Respectable run in the Guineas. Back to 1200m probably not the best move I’d say considering just how off the bit the horse was each run this prep over the 1200-1400m distances. Only really settled over the slower 1600m tempo.
3. Super One: We were told he wasn’t wound up at Cranbourne and that was proven with a 2nd on the day. Was still going well around some very decent types including It Is Written. His very best ratings overseas is more than enough to measure up here. Key today is barrier 10, could very well see him and Dal Cielo make a dash for the stand rails to get as far away from Exosphere as possible.. and it could work.
4. Keen Array: Nice enough win in the Blue Sapphire for this classy horse, but just how strong was the form in that race really when you consider that Haptic ran 1L 3rd and Mawahibb has failed since on the previous race form line. First time down straight.
5. Japonisme: Tried to set up a stupid tempo on speed to beat Exosphere last start and it didn’t work. Clearly a good horse and clearly has ability, but it’s hard to suggest that he can turn the tables here.
6. Counterattack: Strong times in his win from the back last start at Randwick but it was certainly setup for him. Goes well on any track condition.
7. Dal Cielo: Is this too short for him? I’m not sure! He is rock hard fit now unlike first up. His Guineas Prelude run was huge against the patterns and he may actually be wanting to put the speed on and just keep going over the 1200m today. Looks value and blinkers help. Most importantly, drawn barrier 12, you just know Opie and Murray have a plan to go to the rails, surely!
8. Sebring Sun: Nice trial heading into this today off a freshen up. Well beaten by Exosphere last start but was fair in 3rd. Obviously have to improve but suited by step back to 1200m.
9. Black Vanquish: Clearly not going anywhere near as well as first prep. Take on.
10. Mogador: Had the lesser run than Keen Array in the Blue Sapphire and on my ratings is a better horse to follow from the race. Just not sure the horses out of that are as good as the rest here.
11. Hellbent: Looks a nice type. 4 length win on speed first up… but then midfield favourite last start as short priced favourite and was well beaten.
12. Ragazzo Del Corsa: Struggle to suggest a place based on all the form this prep. Take on.
Comments: Let’s just be honest on this one. Exosphere is lengths better than anything in this on form apart from Super One’s best. Tactics is the only thing that gets him beat and that is what i think can occur today.
Confidence 70%
Early Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 3, 6, 7, 10
Strategy: Super One on the Each-Way. Also win bet Dal Cielo.
Flemington Race 5 – 2500m – Lexus Stakes
1. Junoob: Back to form last start at Randwick in Listed grade when well backed. Beaten off in the Metrop the run before that… has to improve at weights.
2. Hawkspur: Saved a lot of ground last start at course over this distance and was a respectable 3rd. Have to improve on that run again to measure up again here today.
3. Excess Knowledge: Stuck on solidly last start behind Amralah for 2nd at Caulfield. Continues to run well without winning. Has the ability but he hasn’t shown me the top class runs this prep that were expected.
4. Elhaame: A horse that is certainly hard to judge here today. His best runs this prep should be good enough to measure up to this level today having won 3 of his last 4, he will go well over this distance, just a query on if he is good enough.
5. Chance to Dance: Strong Irish form over this distance. Three runs this prep beat The United States and ran fairly well the next two runs. Obviously a chance, but Williams from a wide barrier isn’t the best combo as of late.
6. Havana Cooler: Ran very well for 2L 3rd behind Magic Hurricane from out the back last start at Randwick. Weighted very well today and from barrier 3 should get a very nice spot in running. Strong record over these distances.
7. Ruling Dynasty: Fair way off this class as a 3YO. Last start won a listed race okay enough but has to improve on what he has shown in the past.
8. Bohemian Lily: Continues to run good races setting strong tempos out the front or on speed with runners. Can’t see her winning but can see her placing.
9. Thunder Lady: Average run last start at Caulfield and is up in grade again today. Has the ability but has to improve on form this prep.
10. Ethiopia: Old mate… not in this grade thanks!
11. Manalapan: Import first up today. Open class winner in Ireland… not sure his form lines are actually good enough to consider in this.
12. Zanteca: Won nicely at Geelong last start in a BM-78 race… huge step up at weights and not very well in.
13. High Midnight: Showed nothing last start at Caulfield. Will enjoy the distance but i can’t see the win on form.
Comments: This really is a rough race. At the prices even with Craig Williams on from the barrier, I can’t go past Chance to Dance on the Each-Way.
Confidence 65%
Early Quaddie Leg Four: 3, 4, 5, 6
Strategy: Chance to Dance Each-Way.
Flemington Race 6 – 2000m – Mackinnon Stakes
2. Happy Trails: Ignore the fact he even went around in the Cox Plate. Hard to look past a close 2nd to Criterion beating home Mongolian Khan two runs back at Caulfield… loves Flemington… if the rain does come though that is a HUGE negative for the horse.
3. Extra Zero: Very good run two back at Flemington when 5th in Group 1 company from out the back. Looks well suited today and last start was a simple forgive run not handling the track at Cranbourne. WFA-G1 0.1L 2nd last prep at course and distance… good enough. If the track is worse than Good 4 you have to lower the horses chances with 0 wins from 13 starts on soft.
4. Pornichet: Flattered by the 4th placing in the Cox Plate considering he was 9 lengths off them ridden on the best part of the track. Gone backwards his last two starts from the run three back… has the ability over this distance.. but i’m not convinced.
5. Contributer: Certainly not in the same form as last prep where he won a WFA-G2 followed by tow WFA-G1 races. His very best form clearly measures up and wins this race today, but he has to improve from what he showed last start and even two back.
6. Weary: Going out the back today after doing too much last start at Flemington on speed. Not sure I could have him here.
7. Gailo Chop: The more rain comes the better for this talented runner. Did a lot wrong last start in the Cox Plate over racing. Will appreciate a slower tempo today and will be very fit after that run. Positive barrier a key to get a more forward run with a lack of forward runners outside of Ecuador.
8. Index Linked: Is he really good enough? First time in WFA-G1. I have to take him on after his first two runs this prep.. can place but can’t see him winning.
10. Ecuador: 2.3L off Winx last on speed in the Epsom. Will control the tempo today if Gailo Chop doesn’t. Obviously has to be respected on his last three runs even at the weights today.
11. Magic Artist: Andreas Wohler import, WFA-G1 2nd over in Italy on the record and WFA-G3 win. 2nd in WFA-G2 in Germany and 5th in WFA-G1 last start before spell. Goes well first up and this is his best distance. Nice barrier. Respect.
12. Flamingo Star: The Waller stable have a massive opinion of this WFA-G3 French & German winner. In the past his best has been seen over the 1600m and while they believe he can win today, I get the feeling we will see his best in a weeks time in the Emirates.
13. Stratum Star: Didn’t beat much last start over the 2000m at Caulfield in Group 3 company. Rates well on previous two runs but in this class today there are certainly questions hanging over his head, especially with Williams onboard from a wide barrier. False favourite.
14. Rising Romance: Just ignore the fact she went around in the Caulfield Cup. Back to 2000m today looks ideal. WFA-G1 form this prep is hard to argue with and is ideally suited by this distance.
15. Set Square: Did too much on speed with the low weight last start in the Caulfield Cup given an absolute gut buster. I don’t feel she is good enough on previous form for me to consider here today off the gut buster.
Comments: At least eight chances in this race so we had to risk a few in the Quaddie. Think we have it nailed either way. If betting here I’d want to be backing three horses to win in Extra Zero, Gailo Chop and Rising Romance.
Confidence 60%
Quaddie Leg One: 2, 3, 5, 7, 13, 14
Strategy: 1.5 units on Gailo Chop. 1 unit on Extra Zero and 1 unit on Rising Romance.
Flemington Race 7 – 2500m – AAMI Victoria Derby
1. Lizard Island: He continues to run well with a 2nd to Press Statement in the Guineas and then last start a tough run 2nd to Sacred Eye over the 2000m. Had a lot of runs this prep, it would be a huge effort as a 3YO to continue on and win this today. Has the ability on form… but certainly does love to run well and not win.
2. Shards: Much improved run last start when led and was just beaten by a better horse on the day in Jameka. Not convinced he is looking for this distance today and won’t get an easy time out front if goes there from the wide barrier either.
3. Kia Ora Koutou: Normally got back or midfield every run to date over in WA. Clearly looks a good type but the barrier 1 today is a concern. Expect them to try get at least midfield from the barrier and to try get off the barrier at the first opportunity.
4. Ayers Rock: Whipped home two back. Last start well beaten by better horses putting on a stronger tempo. On form has to find lengths to beat the very best here for mine.
5. Man of Choice: Very interesting runner today but the barrier is certainly a massive disadvantage to start with. Ran nicely 3rd to Vanbrugh last start and will be pushing forward.
6. Extra Choice: Well beaten at Caulfield and Flemington but really found the line with authority at Geelong last start as a perfect lead in. Disgusting barrier today though. Will need to risk getting caught 3-wide to get a position.
7. Tarzino: Very good horse. Huge win three back at Caulfield and has impressed both runs since. Last start was never winning at Moonee Valley with the pattern of the day and the horse savaged the line once again. Barrier should have him in a good enough spot, just needs to get going at the right time today to give him every chance. Will be suited by Flemington.
8. Get The Picture: Well supported today after two strong runs in city class group races. Will be closer to the back than most in the race, but barrier 5 does give Oliver some tactical advantage.
9. Etymology: Looks to be wanting the distance today and if you go re-watch the replay of last start, he got a ‘dream run’ but was never in clear running until the 200m.. so he was sat on for 1800 of the 200m and finished just 1L off the winner who is VERY good. Has the ability to sit just off the speed in an ideal spot today off the rail and will probably look the winner with 200m to go giving the favourites from the back something to chase.
10. Jadeer: Off the speed last start at Geelong in a gun spot and just not good enough well beaten by Extra Choice. Has to improve on that run but obviously has ability.
11. Palace Tycoon: Didn’t have to beat much last start at Seymour and didn’t do it with much authority. Has to find much more.
12. Scadden’s Run: Well beaten the last three starts over similar distances. One to take on.
13. Pay Up Bro: Too far back last start at Geelong. Was a big run. Two back run was also very good at course over 1800m behind Ayres Rock. Clearly has ability to be a chance.
14. Colonel Custer: Too far back last start at Geelong from a poor barrier. Gets the same draw today and Williams onboard. Have to improve.
15. Red Alto: Not going well enough on the last three runs. Take on.
16. Iron Boss: Well beaten the last two starts with no excuses. Have to find lengths of improvement to win this.
17. Bullish Stock: R-58 winner wow! No thanks.
Comments: Lizard Island, Kia Ora Koutou, Man of Choice, Tarzino, Get The Picture, Etymology and Pay Up Bro are the chances in this race for mine. If anything else wins, so be it. Tarzino is a freak, but Tarzino will also be giving those in front of him 2, 3, 4, 5 lengths from the 400m… is he good enough to run them down? He is out to $3.30 now and i can’t see him drifting beyond say $3.50… which is a backable price. The issue is I believe the price on Etymology from the barrier from on speed in a race where i have all the main chances giving Etymology lengths of advantage into the straight. At the price, I’ll take Etymology and saver (at worst) Tarzino.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 3, 5, 7, 8, 9, 13
Strategy: Etymology on the Each-Way. Saver bet Tarzino.
Flemington Race 8 – 1600m – Myer Classic
1. Royal Descent: Was never going to be suited out wide in a decently run Caulfield Cup and was pulled up a long way out thankfully. Look back to her previous four runs this prep and realise just how well weighted she is against this bunch today. Clear top pick. Rain would only help.
2. Solicit: Good run last start getting cheap sectionals on speed at Caulfield. Won’t get anything like that today with Miss Rose De Lago injecting speed into this. Take on based on runs previous few preps.
3. May’s Dream: Bet as favourite last start at Moonee Valley after a good run at course over 1400m behind Amicus, but was no match for Fenway in a only fairly run race… had every chance. Has to improve here.
4. Miss Rose De Lago: Huge win last start at Caulfield putting on a strong tempo and just kicking away from them… she is a unique type that just steals their heart. Good barrier will be on speed and bloody hard to run down.
5. Politeness: Will love the tempo that will be set today by Miss Rose De Lago out front. Will be out the back and running on. Massive issue is the step up from 1200m to 1600m and whether she has the same dash. 7 runs for 1 place at track.
6. Jessy Belle: Continues to find no luck in running this prep and with Williams onboard from a wide barrier, will need a miracle! Probably goes back and probably is seen running on again.
7. La Passe: Two wins in a row, you have to believe she is a decent type. Gem of a win last start with a rails run. Goes well at track with two wins from 3 starts.
8. Atlantis Dream: Disappointing the last two runs. Need to find the form of three back to measure up.
9. Abidewithme: Group horse over in New Zealand. Won a fairly good 1400m mares race first up but the last two runs from out the back (bad barriers) haven’t seen her get close… but they were still good Group 1 contests. Back to FM-GP1 grade but up 5kg… could sit slightly closer from barrier.
10. Vergara: On speed runner. Hard to suggest she is good enough to actually win based on 3L off Casino Dancer and 2.3L off Peeping the last two runs..
11. Amicus: Worrying signs the last two runs when you rate her best the previous two runs. Generally have to forgive for two runs… but even so she isn’t exactly well weighted in this grade. Does like Flemington.
12. Fenway: Horrible run on speed last start at Caulfield over the 2000m. Was very well backed that day also. Obviously has class… difficult barrier. Pace will be on for her. Is 1600m her FM-Group1 distance?
13. Slightly Sweet: Well beaten all three runs this prep. Will need to improve significantly to make this jump.
14. Azkadellia: Out the back wide and just beaten last start at Moonee Valley. Clearly going well enough to consider.
15. Stay With Me: Sat out the back, got the gun run and won with class last start in the Guineas. 49kg today, obviously well weighted but there certainly is an issue today with the barrier. Will need to make up 4L on runners such as Royal Descent the final 400m.
Comments: Early Twitter play on this when we got a better price, but I’m still more than happy to back the price going around at $2+ for Royal Descent to place. All the stats point to Royal Descent being the horse to beat.
Confidence 90%
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 4, 5, 6, 15
Strategy: Back Royal Descent to place.
Flemington Race 9 – 1200m – TAB.Com.Au Stakes
1. Moment of Change: Horrible run first up from an ideal spot in running he found absolutely nothing. Massive worry that he just won’t find his way back to his very best. Never won at Flemington.
2. Hot Snitzel: Ran decently first up at Randwick 1L off Rebel Dane which is good form but never really winning. Last start ran dead last behind Rebel Dane and Terravista at WFA-G2 level. Back in class here…. 3 runs and 0 places at this track a big issue.
3. Dothraki: Always looked a good horse and he may have finally gone to the next level this prep based on the win first up in hot time from just off the leaders with 59kg. Beat a nice bunch of horses and can improve today and find that extra half length to full length to measure up. 1 run 1 win at track.
4. Generalife: First up run was rather disappointing all things considered based on his last two preps runs. Will need to have improved significantly to win at the 1200m at a track he has run at 3 times for just 1 placing (over further).
5. Under The Louvre: Consistently running well. Placed 13 of his last 14 runs and was a massive run second up this prep from the back to just miss the win. Barrier 2 is a bit of an awkward barrier to get a solid position in running, but I’d expect them to go out the back and get the horse into a better position. Clearly has the ability to win and probably should have had a group 1 two runs back. DIstance no issue.
6. Delectation: The best of the ‘others’ last start at course and distance when they trapped Chautauqua in down the straight. First up run was very poor but made up for it last start. 3 runs at track and two have been very good down the straight.
7. Fontelina: Surprised last start at Randwick in lesser class by running quite well over the 1100m considering he showed very little last prep. D Oliver takes the ride which would give you a bit of confidence. Won twice at course.
8. Knoydart: Finished in line with Delectation last start at course and distance. Maps to get a nice run from the barrier in a good spot, shouldn’t find too much trouble and clearly handles the straight well. Good 2nd up ratings on paper.
9. Eclair Choice: Massive improvement last start to win a photo finish group 2 with Lumosty at Caulfield over the 1000m. Goes well over the 1200m according to past runnings, but last start was clearly a peak performance after a month off. A repeat of those ratings would go close.
10. Churchill Dancer: Never runs badly. Had a few beat him last start though at course and distance and finds himself down 2kg today while the others are only 0.5kg and 1kg down. Much better weighted today against them but giving Under The Louvre 1kg for 0.2L defeat two back. There or there abouts.
12. Bring Me The Maid: Her best form is on the very wet tracks. Thought her run last start at Caulfield was good, but this is much harder. Has won here previously.
13. Countryman: One to take on based on form.
14. Kaepernick: Good win two back at Moonee Valley and then up in grade last start found a few too good at Caulfield. Two clear standouts for mine on the form lines in Dothraki and Under The Louvre. The consistency in the form lines of Under The Louvre has me very happy to be on at the prices on a win and place model.
Comments: Consistency is key in these types of races. At the relative weights on form
Confidence 85%
Quaddie Leg Four: 3, 5, 6, 8, 9, 10
Strategy: Under The Louvre 3 units to place 2 units to win.
