Welcome to The Profits form guide for 21 May 2016 at Doomben, Flemington Morphetville and Rosehill. It’s one of those days where you can’t just look inside one state to find the best races to bet on as we learnt painfully last week with some very ordinary results outside of our best bet win. There is group racing in different states as well as some nice bets in all four, so we have picked and chosen the races we think are best previewed and come up with some very good bets. As always, I hope your form matches up with mine! Good luck and happy punting.
Best Bet
Doomben Race 5 – Artlee for 3.5 units @ $2.90. Charmed Harmony for 1.5 units @ $9.
Next Best Bet
Rosehill Race 4 – King’s Officer for 2.5 units @ $8.50/$3.10 Each-Way
Other Best Bets
Flemington Race 6 – Sir Prospector for 1.5 units @ $5/$2.10 Each-Way
Best Value Bets
Morphetville Race 7 – Flamberge for 1 unit @ $19/$5.25 Each-Way
Flemington Quaddie
I’m expecting a very large quaddie div today based on the runners and potential blowouts in these legs. Going very wide and i’ll be playing this.
Flemington Quaddie Leg One: 2, 3, 4, 10, 11, 12
Flemington Quaddie Leg Two: 2, 3, 4, 5, 12, 16
Flemington Quaddie Leg Three: 2, 4, 9, 14, 19
Flemington Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 2, 4, 7, 12, 15, 17
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use for the basics – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Our results are updated daily here – Betting Spreadsheet
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Doomben Race 5 – 1350m – Darley BRC Sprint Handicap
1. Charmed Harmony: It’s hard to question his last two efforts. He was a massive winner last start at Caulfield from a wide barrier when they went VERY hard out front. He carried the big weight no dramas that day. The previous start he was run down very late by Black Heart Bart who is the Group 1 Goodwood favourite today. For a horse that is a proven Group horse, this is a massive price on offer today. Most importantly, if it’s too dry for the horse, the trainer will scratch.
2. Rock Sturdy: Obviously a very good run first up this prep, but the two runs since have been well below his best, not going close on either run. Only fairly weighted here.
3. Coolring: Got the win last start at the Gold Coast thanks to a nicely biased track on the day. Has ability but this is a step up again and won’t get any easy sectionals.
4. Artlee: WFA-G1 and WFA-G2 runner back to Group 3 today. Finds himself obviously well enough in at the weights today. Did a lot wrong last start at Doomben pulling hard out the back. Hit the line well enough to suggest he can run well here.
5. Bachman: Continues to run well this prep without going close to a win. Barrier should see him get a nice spot during run, and up in distance should be an advantage.
6. Snippets Land: Continues to run well this prep. Last two runs have been very solid. Comes into this today looking to go one better here, but the barrier will make it a tad difficult to get a solid spot in running.
7. Religify: Will be pushing forward. Likes a nice strong tempo but this is his hardest test to date.
8. Teronado: Handy run last start 2nd in similar grade last start over further. Back in distance a bit of a worry. Had ability but takes a run or two to find his very best.
9. Sure And Fast: Ran nicely enough 2nd last start in easier class. Previous runs last prep would have gone close here but not win. Has to improve.
10. Trubia: Big step up in class here. Has been running well all things considered.
11. Harada Bay: Well beaten first up from out the back in much easier. Previous prep well beaten by Charmed Harmony and a few others here.
12. Aldini: Not the worst run last start 7th behind Coolring but doesn’t look a winner here.
13. Tan Tat Diamond: A second rater, has been going okay in the CL6 grade of races up here, but this is a huge step up in class.
Comments: There are some very handy horses going around here today, but there are two clear standouts providing us with a very good betting option.
Confidence 90%
Strategy: Artlee for 3.5 units @ $2.90. Charmed Harmony for 1.5 units @ $9.
Doomben Race 7 – 2000m – Hardy Brothers Doomben Cup
1. Volkstok’n’barrell: Very nice lead in run last start in the Hollindale when back on a track playing with huge leader bias. Much better barrier today, expect a midfield position to be taken and for a strong run.
2. Hauraki: Got out and off the rail early to finish off solidly from off the speed last start in the Hollindale. Barrier 1 will see him on the rail and a fair way back again. Will need to improve onwards to get the win here but obviously has claims.
3. Our Ivanhowe: Two lead in runs to the BMW were obviously solid. Pulled up lame in that race though which is a concern to be racing 40 days since. Had a 1550m trial in between on heavy and ran well that day. Obviously best is good enough but i’m not convinced 2000m is the horses suited distance.
4. Leebaz: Stole a Group 2 win last start at the Gold Coast thanks to a nicely front runner biased track. Won’t find this anywhere near as easy today. It was a good effort to beat off those in the front half of the field, give him that, but he is under the odds today.
5. It’s Somewhat: 3-wide no cover last start and did a few things wrong overall. Found a few too good that day and would need to show steady improvement today to turn it around on them.
6. Messene: A fairly easy win in the end last start in the Wagga Cup. That was certainly a step back in grade. Ran fairly well 2nd two back to It’s Somewhat. Will find a good spot on speed but obviously has to improve.
7. Maurus: Just how good is he? The ratings of his runs in previous preps are more than good enough to measure up here and run well. Last start he destroyed the field at Doomben in easier class. Wide barrier doesn’t help his cause today.
8. Spiritjim: Competed in Group races over in France. Hasn’t seen the track since October 2015 until last start in the Hollindale when he didn’t have the turn of foot to match it with them. May find his very best on wetter.
9. Noble Protector: A few preps back looked a world beater, but came back broken last prep. This prep she has put in two solid enough runs for 2nd and 3rd including a Group 1 third last start. The big issue is, that was mares grade and up to 2000m today looks a step in the wrong direction on what we know about her. Has to improve.
10. Lady le Fay: Solid enough win in Handicap company two back at Randwick with a low weight. Last start fairly beaten by Ecuador at Rosehill. Will be well back in running and i’m not convinced she is super well weighted at WFA here.
Comments: I’m very happy to take on Hauraki in this race today from the barrier. There are two clear standouts at the prices for me, with Volkstok’n’barrell the clear top pick, Maurus is going around at very competitive odds for a horse with huge upsides.
Confidence 75%
Startegy: Back Volkstok’n’barrell to win. Also have a smaller bet on Maurus to win.
Morphetville Race 6 – 1200m – UBet Proud Miss Stakes
1. I Love It: Mid field last start in the Sangster and got to the front of the running early in the straight. Just kept on battling to the line for 3rd. Group 1 back to a Group 3 today. Good barrier again.
2. Tuscan Sling: Seemed to have every chance the past two runs in Group 3 and Group 1 grades. Went well enough on both occasions, but did run second to I Love It last start. Will need to get a good spot in running to go one better here, but does have the ability on her best.
3. The Messina Nymph: Always been a decent type, but two runs to date this prep have been well off a win here. Has to find career best form.
5. Runway Star: A good horse in previous preps.. first up won well in listed grade before a nice enough 3rd in G3 company, and then ran fairly from out the back last start in the Group 1. Found the line more than well enough that day and from Barrier 1, i’m expecting a slightly further forward spot and with a bit of luck, could be winning.
6. My Poppette: Out the back first up after a drift in betting. Stormed over in much easier grade than this (winner has won since). G2 winner over 1600m last prep.. is this just too short to measure up at a higher level?
7. Scratchy Lass: Two runs since a freshen up and has failed to get within striking range of a place. Hard to have.
8. Secret Agenda: Group winner last prep in very good style, but she hasn’t returned the same horse on previous runs this prep… very off and on. Not disgraced at all the last two runs in Group 2 company 2nd and 4th, but was never close to a win on either occasion. Barrier will help.
9. Private Secretary: Always gets very far back and needs to find far too much when it’s asked of her. In a field of this size and this class, she will need to find her very best to measure up.
10. I Am Gypsy: Every chance all 6 runs this prep and found a few too good. Two back run was nice enough to rate on. Good barrier.
11. Kayjay’s Joy: First up run was very good winning well at Caulfield in much easier grade. Has to improve significantly to measure up again, but does continue to make the jumps.
12. A Lotta Love: Handy dead-heat win two back at Mornington then a forgive run last start held up. Massive step up in class.
13. Forgeress: Last prep put in some nice enough runs in easier grades than this over similar distances. First up run was okay enough heading into this to find improvement.
14. Andrassy: Good win first up this prep and then unlucky last start when held up for runs. Going well enough to progress and run well here.
15. Rationality: Very disappointing run as favourite last start in similar grade over 1400m. No real excuses on that run. Previous run, won well in BM-80 grade. Better over further?
17. Cash is Coming: Struggle to suggest to place here.
Comments: I thought the run of Runway Star in the Sangster was more than good enough leading into this today to rate on top. The horse will be much better positioned today from barrier 1 than last start and looks very well rated here.
Confidence 75%
Startegy: Runway Star E/W
Morphetville Race 7 – 1200m – Darley Goodwood
1. Flamberge: Just ignore last start and rate on two previous runs where he won two Group 1 races in a row. Had a freshen up between runs and looks well placed in this field. Only issue is the barrier today.
2. The Quarterback: It’s hard to argue with his last three runs as strong form lines heading into this today. He beat Black Heart Bart and Chautauqua in the Newmarket and was just 1.5L off wins the next two starts. Too far back last start, it was too much of an ask. Has been beaten by Flamberge both times they met this prep.
3. Black Heart Bart: Has been set for this today. Close but just missed last start over 1400m when 2nd to English in G1 company. Clearly good enough and barrier two should give him every chance to get a nice position in running.
4. Churchill Dancer: Nice enough horse, but he is no Group 1 winner based on every run to date. Place at best especially from this barrier.
6. Big Money: G3 winner two runs back at Randwick beating a fairly average bunch. Last start failed when checked in running. Has ability but needs to find his best plus more to win this. Barrier hurts.
7. Smokin’ Joey: Hasn’t gone close to a win in two preps now. Very hard to see old mate Joey going close here in this class based on previous runs.
8. Nostradamus: Pulled a win out of his behind two runs back in a Group 3 (more like a listed grade race though) before going around a 2nd favourite last start and finding a few too good. Barrier gives little to no chance here.
9. Fast ‘n’ Rocking: Always promised to be a good type and he continues to put in solid enough efforts without winning. His run in the William Reid was very very good. Loves it dry. Only big issue is barrier 16… will be flashing home late.
10. Daytona Grey: In the past he has never produced a run good enough to win this and barrier 18 will confirm he won’t be winning.
11. Under The Louvre: Sneaks into this race today with just 55.5kg. Out the back last start at Caulfield with a big weight (gave Sheidel 5.5kg) and stormed home to just miss. Looks very well suited here today and will not get caught on the fence which is very important. Will have to do it the tough way, but he is good enough!
12. Admiral: Looks to be in for a very nice prep. Strong run 2nd to Supido last start at Flemington over the 1000m distance. Up to 1200m obviously helps, but is this just a little too short for him to find his best in a Group 1? Maps to get a nice spot in running from barrier 6.
13. Faatinah: Two runs for two wins this prep going through the grades. Group 2 win last start and there was a better horse on the day also. Has to improve onwards to be going close to a win here.
14. Super One: Hard to ignore what he did first up winning a Group 3. The issue is Daytona Grey got within 1.5L of him. Has to improve onwards again at the weights. Good enough if finds his very best.
15. Supido: Won his last six races. Probably not overly suited last start when forced to sprint after a slow early sectionals, when his very best has been toughing it out in strong times. Illustrious Lad has franked the form since also. Clearly a top chance, but needs to get the splits at the right times.
16. Sirbible: Horrible run at Alice Springs last start. Won’t be going close.
17. Cashed: Better suited in easier grade than this. Only positive is the barrier today.
18. Miss Promiscuity: Won two in a row before rider fell off last start in the Sangster when in a position to win the race. New rider onboard for the 6th start in a row. Has group ability and maps nicely enough if good enough.
19. Sheidel: Stable elect. Looked home last start in the Sangster before being claimed late by Precious Gem. Two back run was solid enough. Poorly weighted today against Under The Louvre for example, but has more tactical speed to get a good spot in running.
20. Sooboog: Nie run last start in easier grade 2nd to Faatinah when missed the start and stormed home. Would need to jump well and position on speed to be a chance here.
Comments: There we have it. A 20 horse race that is set to be an absolute epic. Flamberge is over the correct odds once again for a horse that has won two Group 1s this prep, beating horses rated higher than those going around today. Sheidel maps nicely enough off that last start run to go well here also. Admiral is an absolute unknown, but has got a strong barrier today to be a threat. Under The Louvre sneaks in with a very good weight allowance today and the barrier will see UTL going close to winning. Supido and Black Heart Bart both have to be considered very strong live chances also from the back today.
Confidence 75%
Startegy: Flamberge for 1 unit @ $19/$5.25 Each-Way
Flemington Race 6 – BM-84 – Neville Begg Handicap
1. Crafty Cruiser: Old mate needs further and the weight is just too much to handle.
2. Entre Nous: Going well enough at the moment to be a contender. Hit the line well last start just missing in similar grade. Expect a better position in run also from barrier.
3. Written: The clear leader on paper. Up to 1800m a bit of an unknown if you ask me, but shouldn’t have an issue seeing it out i’d imagine. Could get some easy sectionals.
4. Every Faith: Nice run two back to win at course and similar distance. Came home well last start also at Caulfield blocked for runs. Back in class and well suited.
5. Time to Test: Every chance last start at Caulfield first up and was just plain if i’m honest. Similar grade today, up in distance may bring him on a bit more but he really does need to improve significantly.
6. Rio Perdido: Hasn’t got close apart from on 1 occasion over 2300m+ last prep. Shown nothing the last two runs… but is with Weir now so you just never know do you.
7. Amarela: A bit unlucky last start over further in easier grade when blocked for runs at critical stages and defeated just 1.3L. Tough barrier to get a good position today.
8. Fair and Equitable: Won first up in much easier than this. Two runs since 3L off the winners in both races. Has to improve.
9. Ashkannd: Hasn’t been under 2000m in 7 runs. Goes okay first up but really needs further and easier.
10. Sir Prospector: This horse looks a very nice type. Will have taken a load of improvement out of the first up run and looks very well weighted here today. Big wraps on him and this is his race to lose. Barrier only issue.
11. Tips and Beers: Ignore last start when simply didn’t handle the soft going. Back to dry and will run much better.
12. Tenacitus: Gone around under $5 the past four runs and failed to get a win each time, running well but not getting the job done. Looks suited here.
13. General Custer: Hard to have on previous runs this prep in easier grade and couldn’t get wins. Take on.
14. I Feel Good: nanannananana… I knew that you would… couldn’t win BM-64 grade races.
15. Iron Boss: Maiden only winner. Take on.
Comments: One clear standout runner here today in Sir Prospector. I have a huge opinion of this horse and it’s ability and it’s been backed up by the mail i’ve received. Will be lengths better second up today.
Confidence 85%
Quaddie Leg One: 2, 3, 4, 10, 11, 12
Strategy: Sir Prospector for 1.5 units @ $5/$2.10 Each-Way
Flemington Race 7 – 3200m – Andrew Ramsden Stakes
1. Swacadelic: No disgrace last start at the Bool when a solid 3rd on a Heavy track for the first time ever in similar grade. Back up to 3200m is what he is seemingly wanting today off his previous runs, but he obviously has to get the distance today. The weight will certainly make it tough.
2. Cafe Society: Came over to Australia to avoid the wet tracks but found them the last three runs. Gets the 3200m no dramas for mine today back on the dryer track and looks very well suited here most likely leading them around.
3. De Little Engine: Did a few things wrong last start but no real excuses finding one too good in Lucky Lucky Lucky. Will be better for the run and up to 3200m obviously better suited again. Does have to improve again.
4. Lucky Lucky Lucky: Very strong win last start at course over 2800m. No issues with extra distance today either. Giving 3.5kg today to De Little Engine a big issue though.
5. Vilanova: Ran probably his best run for the year last start at the bool on a heavy track when you consider he has never won on anything but a soft track. He is wanting further is what that tells me and the 3200m should be suited. Has won in listed grade previously including this prep.
7. Like A Carousel: Not going well at all this prep. Take on.
9. High Church: Rather disappointing last start over 2800m. Fairly beaten the previous run also by Swacadelic. Have to take on here even at the weights.
10. Glorious Sinndar: Interesting type. Won two in a row and beat some decent types along the way. Should go well up to this distance and it’s the master trainer Weir that trains this one.
11. Pop ‘n’ Scotch: Hasn’t got within 5L of a win the past two preps…. even Weir will struggle to pull out a miracle form turn around here.
12. My Bantry Bay: Very disappointing run last start when just simply pushed along too fast out the front. 2000m up to 3200m today is a very bold move. Only run over 3200m in the past was back home in the UK when ran 2.8L 6th in a solid enough race. Questions over the horse staying.
13. Choix de Maia: Did nothing last start at the bool and well beaten previous start in similar grade over 2500m. Hard to see.
14. Refectory: Simply a battler this horse. Well outclassed.
15. The Bandit: Loves to steal your money this horse. Massive questions over the horse at this distance.
16. Barwon: Huge improvement last start to run a close 2nd to Lucky Lucky Lucky. Up to 3200m obviously helps but well up in the weights against De Little Engine.
17. Space: Nice enough horse but doesn’t measure up to the top level.
Comments: Very tough race on paper. Cafe Society is the value edge from on speed.
Confidence 50%
Quaddie Leg Two: 2, 3, 4, 5, 12, 16
Strategy: Cafe Society E/W
Flemington Race 8 – 1200m – Hilton Nicholas Straight Six
1. Heart Testa: Strange to believe it but this is the first time this Group winner has ever run down the straight! Last start win in Group 3 class. Last prep ran consistently well over further.. back to the sprint trip today where better suited. Win won’t shock but weight does make it hard.
2. Durendal: Consistent type who last prep won a Group 3 race down this straight! Won his last two runs down the straight infact. Never won fresh a bit of a concern and high up in the weights.
3. Thermal Current: Going okay enough. Went around favourite in Adelaide last start in a Group 3.. ran okay but well beaten. Never won at track from 7 starts.
4. Iggimacool: Goes okay at the track but first time ever down the straight. Goes well enough over 1200m but best is over further… did just miss first and second up last prep over 1200m. Good horse.
5. Le Bonsir: 9 runs for 0 wins at track. Never runs badly but his very best has been seen at Caulfield and Moonee Valley in the past, not back here at Flemo. First up run was average at best.
6. General Truce: The old General almost stole a win last prep at big odds. A while between runs… has a nice first up record and reserves his best runs for Flemington generally. Loves the straight, but is getting on in years.
7. Rain Affair: Hasn’t won since 2013 and is getting on in age. Only run at Flemington was average.
8. Mirage: Continues to run well without looking a winner. Only run at track didn’t go very well and first time down the straight. Has to find much more today than has in the past year.
9. Bullpit: Consistently going well. Won two of his last four runs down the straight and the 0.5L 3rd to Supido last start was no disgrace at all considering the horse is 2nd favourite in the Group 1 at Goodwood! Only issue for mine is the extra 200m today.
10. By The Grace: Clearly best runs in the past have been over further distances. Goes better later into prep also.
11. Magnus Lad: First up run on heavy found nothing. Never placed down the straight in the past. Hard to have here.
12. Nautical: Got a Group 3 fillys/mares win last prep in Tassy over the 1200m. Goes okay at track but 1 win from 12. Goes well first up.
13. Whistle Baby: Had every chance the last two starts. 1400m back to 1200 where she found her last win, but that was at Moonee Valley. Goes okay at this track but 0 places from 3 starts in this class.
14. Exclusive Lass: Very good run first up and then two runs since very poor. Hard to know what she will produce… repeat of first up run is good enough to run well.
15. Taddei Tondo: Nice enough run first up in easier grade of race. Improves significantly second up and is just a week between runs and nicely weighted. Issue is 5 runs at track for 1 place and 9 runs for 0 wins in this class in the past.
17. Zupacharged: Last win was a fair time ago. Goes well down the straight based on this long prep with 6 runs at the track including a close 2nd in Group 3 class. Last few runs have been well below the mark though.
18. Odyssey Moon: Stepping up out of 3YO grade for the first time today. Close 2nd in 3Y-GP3 last start.. back down to 1200m.. last run at this distance was a close 0.4L 4th at Caulfield. FIrst time down the straight and never won over 1200m.
19. Demonstrate: Going well in 3YO grade and takes the step up here today to open grade. Hasn’t won in his last 8 runs either, going around as favourite two of his last three starts as well. Have to take this horse on at the price in this class.
20. Benchi Pegasus: First time in this class. Huge win on heavy is his best run of the past year. Other than that, not good enough for this.
Comments: Probably one of the hardest races of the day but at the value there are two clear standouts in Durendal and Iggimacool.
Confidence 65%
Quaddie Leg Three: 2, 4, 9, 14, 19
Strategy: Back Durendal and Iggimacool to win.
Flemington Race 9 – 1400m – Better Loosen Up Handicap
1. Chance to Dance: 1600m winner first up last prep beating The United States which is pretty impressive… ran 2L 8th to Preferment in WFA-G2 the next start so the form was franked before running 3L 5th in Group 1 company. Horrible barrier today so a bit of luck will be needed to get a spot in running, but the price on offer is absolutely stupid for a horse that goes well fresh from a stable that always has their horses ready to win first up.
2. Rugged Cross: Horrible run first up with 62kg at the Bool on the heavy track. Had every chance. Might have to simply forgive… Weir knows his horses and on ratings you have to believe on previous runs that he is more than good enough to win this.
3. Hellova Street: Very disappointing last start at the BOol when 6.5L 6th and had every chance that day. I question if the horse is going good enough to measure up here.
4. Sistine Demon: Beaten 1L last start and no disgrace. Previous run beaten 1.5L 2nd to Precious Gem who then won a Group 1! Going well enough and won 3 from 7 at this track.
5. Tycoon Tara: Continues to disappoint. Hard to have her based on three runs to date for mine. Just not top quality right
6. Jimando: Found very little last start at the Bool. Previous two runs were decent enough but he never really got close to the win. Goes okay at this track.
7. Zebrinz: Just missed last start at Morphetville and previous run was a brave 2nd to Red Bomber. Going well enough to win here.
8. Garud: Old mate hasn’t won since 2014. Placed 7 from 8 runs first up and goes well enough at this track and also distance. 25 runs for 0 wins 10 places in this grade. Hard to have on those stats.
9. Enquare: Talented type who hasn’t lived up to the potential.. Ran okay the last three runs this prep but continues to find a few too good. Barrier hurts.
12. Nozomi: 1.5L 3rd to Preferment in Group 1 class in 2014. Hasn’t been seen on the track since until first up run when 2.8L 6th to Supido. Sectionals were very sound. Obviously wants further than this but a win wouldn’t be a total shock?
13. Inspector: Consistent type, but 12 runs for 1 place in this grade makes it very hard to consider when you look at the previous runs this prep.
14. Royal Rapture: Every chance last start when well backed at the Bool. Weir runner. Hasn’t won since the middle of 2015. Hasn’t gone close 4 runs this prep.
15. The New Boy: Continues to run well and got a win two back. Goes very well at track but a big step up in grade again today. Barrier and weight gives him the chances from on speed.
16. Dig A Pony: Needs more rain. Hard to see a win in this grade.. did go okay two back.. needs further?
17. Artie’s Shore: Continues to run well in any grade of race and continues to win. Got the job done again last start at the Bool and looks well enough weighted here.
18. Sir Berus: Hard to have on first up run. Needs easier.
Comments: Wide open race to finish the day. Chance to Dance is a massive chance here and looks a nice E/W bet. The New Boy will be very hard to run down also with 51kg.. if it’s suiting front runners then have a bet on him! Sistine Demon will set a strong tempo and will run well also.
Confidence 65%
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 2, 4, 7, 12, 15, 17
Strategy: Chance to Dance E/W
