Welcome to The Profits form guide for Flemington on 11 July 2015. It was great getting back to Caulfield last week where we have a very consistent winning record. Charmed Harmony went BANG and smashed them as our best of the day taking our 90% confidence bets to another height this season.. we are truly picking them correctly with our adjusted ratings this year at the top end. Our next best didn’t figure out as well but Volcanic Ash, a horse i have a massive opinion of, won very well as our best E/W of the day to complete a very profitable day. I think we are on the money today even though we are back at Flemington with our top picks, so hopefully we get to the end of the day well up… and finally land a 4th leg of the Quaddie also would be nice! As always, i hope your form matches up with mine. Good luck and happy punting.
Melbourne Best Bet
Flemington Race 1 El Greco OR Bengal Cat to win
We are backing both horses to win.. staking plan is 2 units on El Greco to 1.5 units on Bengal Cat.
Melbourne Next Best Bet
Flemington Race 5 Duke of Brunswick E/W
Very consistent type that rates to be right in the finish again today.. expecting a win, at worst should be running top 3 on previous runs.
Melbourne Best Value
Flemington Race 9 Stable Star E/W
Currently $34/$8 best price around, the rain should have well and truly hit in at the track by the last and this is what Stable Star is crying out for. I will be pulling my bet if we are racing on a Good 3 or Good 4 at this stage of the day.. expecting at least Soft 5!
Melbourne Quaddie
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 3, 4, 6, 17
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 2, 3, 4, 7, 9, 12
Quaddie Leg Three: 3, 4, 8, 9, 13
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 8, 9
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Flemington Race 1
El Greco: May have got there a tad too early last start and was a sitting duck late just getting claimed by Bengal Cat. Meets 1kg better off today and should get a better run today hugely having been ridden 3-4 wide with cover last start the whole race. Have to forgive the run and believe he improves today.
Royal Rumble: Continues to progress through the grades and won well last two starts over in Adelaide. Much harder today and i’m not sure he is exactly well weighted today.
Bengal Cat: Huge win last start at Flemington. Enjoyed a soft track first up so if the rain does come, no issues. Had to stop, get out and go around El Greco last start to win… was a very good win! Did get a charmed run from barrier and the 13 today will make it much harder to get the required run which is the only issue.
Irada: Ridden for luck last start and got it.. but couldn’t win. I’m not sure the extra 200m today will suit her either from everything i’ve seen. Barrier helps to sit slightly further forward today if jumps well today.. has a future but does a lot wrong.
Automatic Choice: Every chance last two runs and no good. Pass.
Ayda: Ran nicely first up in 2YOF class at MV and then just missed last start at Sale. This is much harder today.
Gungastruck: Had to go to an open grade maiden to break through last start at Pakenham. Much harder this one today and i’m happy to take her on.
Parmalove: Out the back and had every chance last two starts. Just not good enough for this grade.
Ma Raison: Not the worst first run ever but clearly well beaten into 4th and need a massive improvement to measure up to those 3 that finished ahead of him.
Party Boy: Couldn’t win a maiden last start over the distance at Pakenham and the prize money of that race wasn’t exactly exciting. Massive step up to consider here… happy to take him on in this.
Flying Light: Does alot wrong in running but two runs to date and failed to place in maiden grade. Up to 1600m will need to sharpen him up significantly, but even then, i can’t see the win.
Triple Effort: Every chance last start from the run she had. Just not good enough for this race.
Ayers Rock: Failed to place all three runs to date. No surprise if finishes last again today.
Comments: El Greco, Bengal Cat, Irada and Ma Raison are the four chances that rate to win this. Ma Raison could show huge improvement today from first up run and well weighted down 2kg, but does map awkwardly and there is only minimal value in the price unless $20+. Irada maps awkwardly again today if misses the start… i’m not convinced the horse is wanting the 1600m. Bengal Cat and El Greco look solid plays here and you are getting the price to back both today and i’m confident we are on the right horses.
Confidence 85%
Strategy: 2 units El Greco to win. 1. 5 units Bengal Cat to win.
Flemington Race 2
Mohave: First time down the straight. Claimed a solid win two back at Doomben in this grade over the carnival. Previous two runs were quite poor all things considered and failed last start on a heavy track with breathing issues. The firmer the better for this horse.
Husson Eagle: Hard to fault his form lines having won in 3YO class three back, an unlucky 4th two back when just too far back and then last start beating Rough Justice by 0.1L. Up to 1200m today but i’m not sure the horse is best suited to this distance honestly, i think the horse is best over the 1000m trip.
Rough Justice: Quality win last start down the straight backing up off a close 2nd to Husson Eagle two starts back when losing a plate. Never runs a bad race and barrier 3 should see him in the best part of the track. Most importantly had no issue with the 1100m last start so 1200m should be no issue.
Sang Choi Bao: Measured up last prep to some okay horses but then coming into this prep fell away from them. Went back to BM-70 last start to find a close 2nd. Will be a long way back but could be back to his best?
Face Forward: Brave enough run last start at course over 1100m when 2nd to Rough Justice. Down 3.5kg today has her well in at the weights. Never run poorly down straight and best was seen on a Good track. Rain wouldn’t hurt at all either.
Illustrious Lad: Every chance just not good enough last start and previous run before that. Continues to run well without threatening and that’s what i’m expecting again today.
Valderrama: 0.8L 2nd to Raposo last start at Moonee Valley with 52kg. Up 4kg today but that was a high enough rating race to have him competitive here if he handles the straight. Could threaten.
Hell on Earth: BM-64 2nd last start…. previous runs did get a maiden… not sure i could be confident at all on him today. Market tells the story.
Our Harmony: Continues to go through the grades going from strength to strength winning three of her last four races including a 1100m 3YOF win last start at Caulfield. Poorly weighted today if you consider she is 3kg worse off against Rough Justice compared to their Mornington battle. Can win but price looks slight unders.
Comments: Tricky race. Face Forward appeals at the weights today while Rough Justice is super consistent. Husson Eagle may just be outside of the right distance while Our Harmony and Illustrious Lad both have claims to improve and measure up. Mohave is the value in the race based on the two back win if we get a Good 3 or Good 4 track – we are getting the price to find out!
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Mohave E/W
Flemington Race 3
Miss Rose De Lago: Amazing run last start at course and distance when just missed 2nd to Jessy Belle. Equal at weights today, won’t be run along out front at the same pace today and she will have every chance from the barrier. Only thing that stops her is a very flat run today… but has had enough time between runs i believe.
Sino Eagle: Good enough horse but just not going well enough this prep on all the runs to date for me to suggest she can beat every runner here at the weights and ratings.
Jessy Belle: Good win last start when ridden appropriately and got the pace on out the front to come home late over the top. Won’t get it as easy today… good horse.
Nautical: Obviously too far back last start when 5th to Jessy Belle. Barrier 4 today if no issues at jump like last time should be further forward. Has the ability to run well.
Mamwaazel: Very very poor last start at course and distance. Was okay three back on a wetter track… not sure how you could back with confidence today unless the money comes.
Spirit of Heaven: Good horse. First up blocked for runs forgive. Last start out the back but well beaten by 4L… similar class today will be out the back and wanting more and more rain.
Dig A Pony: Showed nothing last prep. First up well beaten on a wet track as favourite in easier race. Hard to have.
Written: Main front runner in the race, preferred on dryer tracks on past runs. Only the one win this prep in much easier company. Run good races all prep but never just got there. I think she is a good horse but will find at least one too good.
Leia: Did alot wrong last start and is a forgive on that. Won two in a row but this is a huge step up and looks outclassed.
Smokin’ Al: Most likely goes forward but last start didn’t and won so not sure from barrier. Has ability to run a place at very best.
Patricia Dawn: 15 runs for 1 win to date. Last 3 preps no better than 7th. No thanks on first up run.
Niminypiminy: Actually ran on very well considering slowly away and out the back last start at Caulfield behind Pilly’s Wish. Equal weight today and up in distance looks to suit. Don’t discount at all!
Comments: Miss Rose De Lago has been on the drift since opening markets with a fair few backed at odds, but i can’t pass up the $4.40ish odds on offer currently. Hopefully they continue to take her on and we get a better price on the day..
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Miss Rose De Lago to win.
Flemington Race 4
Lord Durante: Won very very easy last start at Caulfield over 2000m knocking us out of the quaddie #neverforget. 60kg today in same class (up 4.5kg on last start) and is expected to run well. Any rain will help the horses chances.
Tristram’s Sun: Scratched from last start. Best runs in past have been with a bit of rain so may be suited today. Just not sure he is going well enough this prep to be confident today.
Commanding Time: Every chance last start behind Lord Durante at big odds out the front and fell out of it late. Up in weight today, not one in my top 5.
Onpicalo: Hasn’t beaten much in the past if we are honest. Last win was a quite back and this prep best run doesn’t rate well enough to win this today. Has to improve. Never placed 3 runs at track… first time at distance.
Orientaped: Every chance last start at Flemington and just simply not good enough behind Majestic Duke. Three back run was fair on heavy.. would love it to flood but won’t happen. The wetter the better you imagine.
Vatuvei: Won very well twice in ar ow now over the hurdles… just here for the run by the look of things.
Clairvaux: Strong form this prep first two runs then just hit wet ground.. back to good and won very well at Flemington last start. Much harder here and may not get the track condition they want.
Refulgent: Continues to find a few too good. Consistent type but is poorly weighted again today giving Clairvaux 1.5kg for a 0.8L defeat!
Kings Palace: Ignore the fact he went around last start and rate on previous runs. Even so, not going well enough for mine.
Falago: Consistent type that has progressed through the grades this prep. Finding a few too good the last few runs, was fair at MV last start in this grade.. up 2kg today.. does have to improve to win.
Shikarpour: Money came for the horse big time two runs back and came against last start when the horse was ridden correctly not on speed and won very very well. Impressive victory and has the ratings to suggest he can make a jump up today to be competitive.
Seattleite: Hasn’t won for 9 months now. Five runs this prep not good enough to measure up here.
Comments: Very hard race to judge this one. If it was soft 6 or worse Shikarpour would be a very good bet, but with what may be a top of soft 5, you can’t be overly confident (still okay price at $6/2.20). Lord Durante is very off and on also and Clairvaux really wants a Good 3 from my ratings… Refulgent just doesn’t win recently also and Falago looks a step below winning chances… wide open race.
Confidence 65%
Strategy: Shikarpour E/W
Flemington Race 5
Duke of Brunswick: Up 5kg on win over Raposo two back at MV… meets Raposo 2.5kg better off today also for that win. Raposo was beaten last start by Volcanic Ash by 3L also who Duke beat last start at Sale. Never run a bad race and looks perfect to step up to the 1600m today. Most importantly, maps nicely to get a run just off the speed.
Raposo: Payne off Rawiller on, a run too late. Was false favourite last start at Caulfield. Step up to 1600m no issues but poorly weighted against Duke today the obvious concern. Longer straight should suit.
Liberty Island: Ran nicely last start at Flemington from the back when looked to have every possible. Barrier 1 today ridden for luck may settle slightly closer and could prove the difference in the end if good enough.
Cool: Had every possible last start at Sale. Better weighted today but struggle to suggest based on last start ratings… step up to 1600 does suit though.
He’s A Given: Did a lot wrong last start so not sure i can fully discount, but i can’t forgive a horse simply on that run either. Previous runs don’t measure up to this.
Monteux: Well weighted today after not the worst run ever behind Duke last start, but barrier certainly makes it hard to back him today as he will certainly be a long way back. 1600m should suit.
Pure Karma: Won two in a row. Big step up here though. Sectionals suggest we shouldn’t fully over-look this bloke.
Angry Gee: Well weighted today against the Duke for a large defeat… but last start in this grade didn’t perform well enough for mine to be winning here.
General Custer: Maiden winner back to BM-64 failed then 3YB-64 to get a win just. Hard to see measuring up to win.
Pemberley: Maiden only winner. Struggle to suggest on last two runs not getting the win.
Plan: Looking for sting out it seems, decent enough maiden win first up but wasn’t exactly the richest maiden. Does need to improve. Could place?
Beau Padrille: Maiden only winner. Run two back wasn’t bad at all from the back… last start missed start a huge issue and rider suggested better suited to dryer.
Sneferu: Every chance the last three runs this prep but hasn’t been able to get close to the win. Can’t see a change in that today.
Doubtless Star: Every chance last start and beaten by a poor field compared to this one. Not for mine.
Comments: I’m a fan of the Duke and i’m not jumping off today at the very positive price they are offering us on the E/W. Beau Padrille is the early overs in the race.
Confidence 85%
Strategy: Duke of Brunswick E/W
Flemington Race 6
Kansas Sunflower: Back in class today and back up to 1600m looks the right move. The push back to 1200m last start never looked a winning one from 2000m but they backed her. Did run 2nd over 1800m this prep and 1st over 1600m in similar or harder company. Weighted well enough in respect to her againity. Maps quite well today.
Lucy’s Look: Massive step up in class today at the weights. Best runs on wetter tracks this prep… but has dry ability.
Kaizaen: Blinkers first time a very good improvement for this filly who showed large ability but could never get that break through last prep in the top class. 2nd up run 2nd to Azeema was very good and back to scene of crime up to 1600m looks ideal.
Violent Snow: Giving Kaizaen 2kg today at the handicap for a 0.5l defeat two runs back at course over 1400m. Up to 1600m ideal for this horse today… was beaten by Kansas sunflower four back also.
Penny to Sell: Out the back and did a bit wrong last start, but was always going to be a tough ask to measure up and progress. Hard to see the required improvement today either.
Explosive One: Ran well from out front last start with a low weight, but didn’t finish the race off well enough to suggest a win here today.
She Can Shazam: Best run this prep was two back on a soft track at MV when just missed. Last start did alot wrong in easier grade. Weighted only fairly today and has to improve to be a chance i’d suggest.
Sebring Warrior: Another that ran well two back in the East Afrika race but last start found nothing on a dryer track at Flemington. Forgive run?
Champagne Cocktail: Failed two back in the Azeema race then won well at Pakenham in maiden class by 5 lengths. Much much harder today obviously.
Manageress: Luckless two back in the Azeema form race but then last start close 3rd behind Dodging Bullets from dead last in the race. Poor barrier again today means out the back again which is the issue. Has the ability.
Comic Miss: Maiden only win who didn’t run the poorest race you will ever see last start at Pakenham going close enough. Need to find stacks of improvement today to even place though.
Unassailed: Same Pakenham race as Comic Miss last start but beat her home just. Did run okay over 1200m two back… so strange to see step up to 1600m.
Darcy’s Law: Got her maiden then failed to find any more last start in harder company. Struggle to suggest.
Bonnie Belle: Ran okay enough two back in Azeema race but last start told the tail of the horse, needs more time.
Vertical Hold: Did alot wrong winning first up. Not the worst run last start doing the same things wrong. If jumps well today not doing anything wrong has to be a top chance.
Comments: Kansas Sunflower and Kaizaen the two standouts here and i’d feel more comfortable backing both rather than either of them on the E/W.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 3, 4, 6, 17
Strategy: Kansas Sunflower 1 unit to win. Kaizaen 0.6 units to win.
Flemington Race 7
Amovatio: Well up in the weights today after the very good win at course over 1400m. Step up to 1600m no issue with wins in the past at distance. Best seen on dryer ground the only concern with rain today.
Tried and Tired: Tough 2nd last start at Caulfield and if he doesn’t race flat today could be a speical betting wise up to 1600m on speed with little tempo in the race outside of Ventic.
Mr Utopia: Every chance last two runs but simply too far back. Up to 1600m should be fine and goes well at track obviously. Mapping will see out the back again.
Good Value: Ignore last start and rate on two previous runs which were great. Should get a forward enough spot with little issues from barrier i’d say with lack of speed in race. Jockey knows the horse.
Lord of Brazil: Very happy to take this bloke on after first two runs this prep. Well held here in this grade.
Venture On: Smashed them two runs back at Bendigo before a nice run 2nd last start at course. Any rain increases his chances today and it looks to be coming.
Lake Sententia: Shown nothing 3 runs to date. Looks one we can safely take on.
Coronation Shallan: Snuck home last start at Ballarat for a win over Freshwater Storm with a nice ride. Similar weight today and has to be considered a serious chance but will need to do a load of work from that barrier to get a position spot… best seen with a sit but doubt they get that today!
Sir Andrew: Promising type with strong late sectionals but been bet very low prices all three runs to date in Aus and failed to win. First time 1600m and tempo may just not be suiting unless they decide to ride further forward today. Could occur.
Tiny’s Legacy: Good surprise win at Sale three back. Not the worst run two back then just well beaten last start. Very flat run. Not sure i like him up to 1600m off those runs today. The wetter the better.
Search Squad: Continues to be backed and continues to disappoint. Hasn’t won for 9 races and has been single figures the past 6 runs! Consistent type but never ran at 1600m and 5 runs 0 wins at track a concern.
Ventic: Will be out the front running it along. Best recent runs have been on wetter tracks but enjoys any type. Not won since 2013 the concern even though placed the last 5 runs!
By The Grace: Disgusting the last two runs as short priced 2nd favourites in both races. Not sure how you could be on today with only win over Rivers Lane in Adelaide this prep.
Metaphorical: Good win two back at MV over Lord Durante but failed hard last start. Prefer dryer but won’t get it.
Relentless: Not the worst runs last couple but does look only fairly rated it has to be said here. Others preferred but could sneak a place if improved and gets a gem of a ride.
Comments: Most open race of the day so far and no surprise we are wide wide wide in the Quaddie. Good Value gets the nod, just, on the E/W to bounce back today from on speed.
Confidence 60%
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 2, 3, 4, 7, 9, 12
Strategy: Good Value E/W
Flemington Race 8
Desert Jeuney: Surprised when almost stealing the win last start at Flemington down the straight. Can put in some strong sectionals as seen by G1 3rd then WFA-G1 3rd over 1600m. Top weight again today up to 1200m but not a top pick here for me.
Hard Romp: Convinced the side of the track he was ridden on last start lost him the race. That happens and you move on. Weighted nicely today and best part of the track from barrier. Should be on speed either way. Rates well obviously.
Decircles: Well backed late last start and ran nicely for 2nd to Amovatio over 1400m. Drop back to 1200m where first two runs this prep were very poor down the straight. Last win was down the straight beating Lord of the Sky in Group 3 company but that was 7 months ago! Best runs since been 1400m+… can win but has to have more sprint power.
Solsay: Not the worst but not the best run first up. Clearly wanting a Good or firm track for mine and won’t get it today. Also best seen over 950m-1000m for mine rather than 1200m.
Nearest To Pin: Strong run 2nd to Sea Lord but well beaten still and had every possible chance with times run. take on.
Lonrockstar: Good win last start at course over 1100m. Somehow finds himself 1kg better off today! Rates well again but does need to improve with the extra 100m which doesn’t looks ideal for mine.
Smackdown: Two runs two wins this prep. Goes nicely enough down the straight and best runs this prep are good enough to measure up. The wetter the better.
Play Master: Had every possible last two starts but found a few too good. Weighted okay though today but has to improve significantly still.
Nadeem Lass: Close but just missed last start. Up in weights but that’s fair. Will be swooping late again… but think just misses… again. Not this grade of sprinter!
About Square: Every chance first up when found nothing for 3L 5th. Down 3kg today while Hard Romp is up 1kg so is well weighted it has to be said. Has won down the straight in the past also. Consider if you think the soft ground suits.
Written Up: Equal weight today after going back and running on fairly to not get close last start at Flemington. Two back just beaten by Smackdown 3rd and 1kg better off today. Has ability and needs soft ground.
Red Corner: Got the win last start over Rich Jack down the straight who has come out and won since. Rates nicely here today off the 54kg and looks a blowout chance.
Comments: Another Quaddie leg, another wide open race. Hard Romp continues to run well down the straight… with two wins and two places in this class and at this track, how do you bet against this consistent type that has won or run a place in 9 of his last 10 races. We are getting a great price to find out again today in a wide open race.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie Leg Three: 3, 4, 8, 9, 13
Strategy: Hard Romp E/W
Flemington Race 9
Crafty Cruiser: Huge win last start at course and similar distance. Up to 60kg today looks a bit tough for this bloke. Would be great to see him take out the big money so Bryce can afford another sandwich! Will be ridden for luck from barrier 1 and get a charmed run. Wants the speed on.
Black Jag: Led, won two back at Flemington. Weighted very well today. Last start was no chance not getting the speed.. they still ran it very fast and he stuck on okay enough. On paper on of two clear leaders.
Cooldini: Well backed late and just missed last start. Down 1kg today while Crafty is up 3kg for 0.1L… but big query is how Cooly will handle a wet track and if the horse is really back to being a winner.
Cadillac Mountain: Down 1kg today.. ran nicely enough but just missed also last start. Goes well on wet track is a big key… barrier 4 today will get a very charmed run and be hitting the line hard.
Westsouthwest: Last two runs on wet track have been very good for 0.1L and 1L defeats. Barrier hurts his chances in where he gets in the run and most likely further back than wanted, but has the ability to measure up if good enough.
Ava’s Delight: Got a win two back and that will be it for a year or two… Yes she is going well but she jumps poorly and goes out the back. Hard to back a horse with this racing style.
Gosh: Waller runner.. sent down from Sydney… Had four runs there and failed every run on every surface… was a WFA-G3 4th over in France in 2014… best on good ground.
De Little Engine: Never measured up on wet tracks in the past… last four runs had every chance and was false favourite last start. Take him on again today.
Stable Star: He has been crying out for a wetter track and it looks like he gets the opportunity today. Not very well weighted today unfortunately up 2kg from last start but will get a charmed run just off the leaders and have last crack – the price you pay for no apprentice… but couldn’t claim here anyway. The wetter the better for the horse… really keen at the price.
Prizum: Good run last start for this bloke who hasn’t won since 2012!!! Don’t see that changing at the weights today either.
Doctor Care: The Dr got the win last start over in Adelaide… much harder class this and unknown distance… should get it but harder race can’t have at weights at all.
Red Fella: God the win over in Adelaide last start over distance and three back at Mornington… but well beaten two back at Flemington. Struggle to sugggest in this.
The Donch: Won a poorly rated race last start at Mornington compared to this one today. Have to take him on.
Timikar: Failed to measure up last two starts in much harder company. Needs it very very wet.
Comments: I’m going out on a limb with my gut and my knowledge on this last race today with Stable Star. The horse showed it’s true talent three and four back with very strong wins on wetter tracks… no disgrace last two runs either at course and distance on dry tracks… even if we get a Soft 5 at best, that will be the extra difference and today the horse should get a sit just off the leaders instead of doing it the tough way… price to be looks way overs!
Confidence 75%
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 8, 9
Strategy: Stable Star E/W
