Welcome to The Profits form guide for 12 March 2016 at Flemington. Super Saturday is upon us. We come into this race day with a fair bit of confidence after strong recent results. I like to give my thoughts on the day in this section for those who read it and to always be honest. Rosehill has one of the trickiest cards I have seen in a long time and there is no chance I could bet up there and come out ahead. That’s why there is only the one bet up there and it’s a ripper in my opinion, more than double the correct odds. Flemington doesn’t have any ‘massive standsouts’ that are ‘morals’ as we like to say, but there are some very solid each-way bets where I feel we come out at least breaking even more often than not and the win is a high chance. As always, I hope your form matches up with mine! Good luck and happy punting.
Best Melbourne Bet
Flemington Race 4 – Trust in a Gust for 1.5 units @ $5.60/$1.80 Each-Way
This is a horse I’ve made a lot of money in the past opposing, and if I’m honest, I’ve been quite biased (for good reasons) against it in the past. But there is no reason to be against the horse today coming off two very solid runs when never on the track. Will be pushing forward and getting a spot correctly today and be allowed to finish off the race correctly. Too good to pass up the price on offer.
Next Best Melbourne Bet
Flemington Race 7 – Bow Creek for 1.3 units @ $3.40 to win. Our Ivanhowe for 0.7 units @ $6.2 to win.
Clearly the two best horses on form coming into this today are Bow Creek and Our Ivanhowe. There are a few other chances in the race, but even if there is a slower than average tempo, I can see one of these runners getting the win. The same can be said for a medium or strong tempo. I think we have this market cornered and only an improved peak run from a Rising Romance could be our undoing.
Best Melbourne Value Bet
Flemington Race 1 – So Serene for 1 unit @ $8.50/$2.60 Each-Way
The markets have this one wrong for me. So Serene showed more than enough in her first ever run to have another crack today. The sectionals don’t lie and the Haye’s stable words only enhance the confidence here.
Best Sydney Value Bet
Rosehill Race 5 – Decision Time for 1 unit @ $21/$4.60 Each-Way.
Decision Times last three runs on Good were a Group 3 win over 1200m, 4.3L off WINX in Group 2 company over 1300m and then his very last start over 1200m 0.1L second to Big Money. Barrier 5 suits as well.. just simply well over the odds today and has to be bet.
Melbourne Quaddie
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 5, 6, 9
Quaddie Leg Two: 2, 5, 6, 9
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 2, 6, 10
Quaddie Leg Four: 2, 5, 6, 4, 7, 8
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use for the basics – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Our results are updated daily here – Betting Spreadsheet
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Flemington Race 1 – 1200m – TBV Thoroughbred Breeders Stakes
1. Concealer: Very disappointing run in the Blue Diamond when got too far back and never really ran on. Her previous two runs were more than good enough to be winning this and handles the straight.
2. Selenia: Change of tactics last start at Flemington when didn’t lead. Slowly built speed in and finished off very well for a comfortable win. Step up in class here though and has to improve again up to 1200m.
4. So Serene: Stable suggests work at home has been very very good. Blinkers off. 2L off Extreme Choice over 1000m in a very competitive time first up and second up failed to fire when missed the start on a soft track. Looks a big price on that first run sectionals.
5. Soviet Secret: Just missed first up at Sandown at big odds then ran a close 2nd at Randwick as favourite in easier class. D Oliver takes ride today. Clear chance.
6. Emphatically: Had her chances last start behind Selenia. Two back run was okay blocked for runs. Previous run 2nd to Sword of Light hasn’t measured up as a form line. Seems to always run well but yet to win for a reason.
7. Thyme for Roses: Every chance last start 5th to Selenia at course over 1000m. Was a nicely improved run on previous start. Fairly weighted.
10. Joan Constance: Couldn’t win a maiden first up is certainly a concern up to this grade. Has to improve.
11. Sister Sylvia: Market drifter, would expect Moody’s very best would have hit the track prior to this.
12. Vainglorious: Decent go for this filly at odds suggests she is handy. Still, hard to take her here knowing 2-3 of these runners are probably in the top 30 2YOs so far seen.
Comments: The markets have this one wrong for me. So Serene showed more than enough in her first ever run to have another crack today. Haye’s stable words only enhance the confidence.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: So Serene for 1 unit @ $8.50/$2.60 Each-Way
Flemington Race 2 – 1400m – MSS Security Sires’ Produce Stakes
1. Power Trip: Solid runner. Beat Flying Artie down the straight in first prep. 4th in the Blue Diamond. Does look suited by step up to 1400m. Awkward barrier.
2. Jackson: Nice enough type based on previous prep. Ran well 3rd first up behind Weatherly. Has to improve on that run.
3. Detective: Frustrating horse to own I’d imagine running into three potentially good horses along the way. Can go one better today if good enough and times suggest he can..
4. Revolving Door: Nice win last start at Sandown but is he the one to follow out of that race? I’m not convinced he is. Will run well again.
5. Seaburge: Nice enough run last start at Sandown and will take a load of improvement out of that. Will get the pace wanted today and maps nicely from barrier. Stable has big opinion.
6. Attenborough: Good enough win first up in 2YO grade at Sale but well beaten last start at Sandown. Hard to see the improvement required to take the next step.
7. Battle Order: Okay enough type but hard to see the improvement required to beat all of these home based on two runs to date.
8. Hot Dipped: Three in a row and highly under-rated today coming into this. Recorded an 8 length victory in 2YO class. Coming off an easy 2.5L victory and will have no issues getting the distance. Has won 100k+ for a reason.
Comments: One of the hardest races on the card and that is shown by 6 of the 8 runners in the race being single figures. Very slight lean to Hot Dipped based on form coming into this. The sectionals check out and she looks the horse to be on. She maps perfectly from barrier 4 also and every dog has their day.
Confidence 60%
Strategy: Hot Dipped to win.
Flemington Race 3 – 1100m – Goodwood Racecourse Trophy
1. Bassett: Looked to have the race in the bag at the 200m first up at Caulfield but fitness just gave out in the end and he was claimed on the line. Time set was quite fast for the day so I think there is no disgrace in the run at all, it was very good! Top weight today back to listed company and looks very well in. Jump back to 1100m where he is two runs for two wins over nice types in Keen Array and Kinglike.
2. Brockhoff: Burst through late to just missed last start at Caulfield nosing out Bassett. Equal weight today. Only run down the straight was a disappointment, but to be fair, his form has improved loads this prep.
3. Sooboog: Needs to have his balls chopped off. Promised a lot and under delivered. Started $1.70 favourite against Vancouver as a 2YO one day! Take on.
4. Stellar Collision: Weir runner. 3 from 3. Weir has given it a big plug which is a BIG turn off signal for me. Certainly looks a nice enough type and has drawn wide down the straight. Could be good or bad depending on where they decide to travel or split into groups.
5. Black Vanquish: At his very best, he is more than good enough to be considered a genuine chance here. Didn’t show any of that las tprep though. Drifter.
6. Stoker: I’ve had a soft spot for this bloke since his 2YO runs, but he hasn’t won since winning for us at Sandown 12 runs ago and we haven’t been on him more than three times since. Happy to avoid here.
7. Grey Street: Just missed last start run down by Stellar Collision. Previous win was in solid time from on speed toughing it out. Has ability.
8. Viceroy: Up into open class first up BM-82 and very disappointing as a short priced favourite. Had time to get over that. 3YO placed at MV and then 3Y-SWP 2nd down the straight here by 0.1L.
9. Super Cash: Very well backed second up off a nice 3rd to Almighty Girl when had a lot go wrong. Will measure up here that’s for sure, no question about that. Only run down the straight was fine when 2nd to Petits Filous.
10. Certain Ellie: She is a nice type and going through the grades well enough. Blocked for runs last start but still ran well. Has to improve here but looks okay enough weighted.
11. Gibbon: Nice enough runs the past two coming off two wins before that. Has to improve but has ability to win.
12. Tiz My View: BM-64 winner last prep then failed to measure up to the top class. Have to take on.
13. Sandrelli: Maiden winner first up and didn’t have to beat much.
Comments: Very open race with 6-7 chances of winning. Bassett is the clear top pick and will be very hard to run down for mine. Certain Ellie is the runner at massive odds that are overs based on weight and last few runs.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Back Bassett to win. Also back Certain Ellie.
Flemington Race 4 – 1600m – Incognitus Blamey Stakes
1. Trust in a Gust: Fourth run in this prep and he is yet to get a good ride. Rawiller off and Lane on today… last time he was on he won a Group 1 beating Dissident! Up to 1600m should be suitable from the tough runs this prep and back to Group 2 company he is very well suited here. Expect him to push forward and sit just off the leaders.
2. Stratum Star: Beaten Trust in a Gust home the last two starts and ran very well at Caulfield 2nd to Turn Me Loose. 1kg better off against Trust in a Gust today.. Only won once at track which is a concern with best results being at Caulfield. Very best form has been over 1400m in the past for mine. Does obviously get distances higher up but very best is clearly 1400m. Deserves to be well respected.
4. Digitalism: Never won at track and is 7 runs for 1 place infact. Very best runs in the past in these grades or even lesser have been over 2000m+.
5. The United States: Hard to miss his last start run at Caulfield in WFA-G1 when ran home well 5th after being 3L last early on. Nicely weighted and good barrier will have him in a suitable spot. Suspect his very best runs are probably 1600-2600m on what we have seen to date. Have to consider.
6. Entirely Platinum: Shown nothing this prep to suggest a win here for mine. Take on.
7. Observational: Huge spruk around for him last prep but didn’t run up to it. First up this prep showed nothing.
8. Guardini: WFA-G2 winner from Germany. Needs further.
9. Kenjorwood: You know I have a soft spot for him. He loves to run well. First up he certainly lacked the usual zip. May need a few more runs and looks outclassed straight up into this class.
10. He or She: Expect to be ridden further back than last start. He is a good type but he is yet to measure up to the top level just yet. Based on last two runs I couldn’t have him.
11. Manndawi: Two runs this prep have been absolute rubbish. Weir runner though so keep your eye out for the money.
Comments: Three clear standouts here in Trust in a Gust, Stratum Star and The United States based on form to date. It’s no surprise the market has seen it this way with He or She being given a chance also and Kenjorwood having been well backed with 3 weeks between runs. The clear value is in the price for Trust in a Gust on my ratings.
Confidence 85%
Strategy: Trust in a Gust for 1.5 units @ $5.60/$1.80 Each-Way
Flemington Race 5 – 1400m – TAB Kewney Stakes
1. Pasadena Girl: Loves to tease by looming and just not winning. First up had every possible chance and disappointed once again. Back to Flemington where 2 of her wins have been. Would have wanted to see an increase in distance here. Weighted much better today than last start.
2. Don’t Doubt Mamma: Last 100m wasn’t the best you will ever see first up at course and distance. That being said, you have to believe she will be even fitter for the run with her very best coming later into last prep as well. Barrier hurts and will be further back than last start which is a huge issue for mine.
3. Badawiya: Frustrating Won 3 placed 3 and missed the place just once when blocked for runs. Talented filly who is best over 1400-1600m so looks suited today. Maps very handy from the barrier today and has a win over Tivaci last prep and 2 length win at course over 1600m over Sacred Eye on record as well. Group 1 placed and I suspect she had come to the end of her prep. Still hard to take the fact she lost her maiden first up last prep.
4. Catch A Fire: Very good win last start at Caulfield over 1400m. Looks a talented girl and will run well here from barrier 4 on speed.
5. Mossin’ Around: Had her chances last start at Caulfield and found one simply too good. Equal weights again today. Has to improve on last start. Barrier will help give her the chance.
6. Indarra: Very average the run first up if i’m honest. Couldn’t back on first run alone. Has some talent.
7. Bengal Cat: Hasn’t won since that faithful day she ran down El Greco as our best bet of the day at course and distance as a 2YO. Hard to be confident here.
8. Jacqui’s Joy: New Zealand import. Won three in a row going through the grades last prep. Nice enough type but big step up first up here.
9. Labdien: 4th to Heatherly two runs back over 1100m at course. Won last start at MV in much easier company. Has to be respected but others preferred.
11. Sempre Libera: Hard horse to catch. Last prep didn’t measure up to the best of them with 4th the best result. First up was just average.
12. Egypt: Never given a chance last start when blocked for runs the whole straight finishing alongside quite a few runners. I’d have a guess that if she got clear running that she very much would have been competing for the win. Maps okay enough again today and expect to get a spot off the rails to have every possible chance.
14. Daniela Rosa: Beat a nice type in Data Point second up in much easier company. Has to improve even though won two in a row.
Comments: Pasadena Girl is massive unders again today and the same can be said for Don’t Doubt Mamma. Catch A Fire is at the right price and deserves to be favourite, but there isn’t alot of value in the price. There are a few unknowns with Badawiya first up today but on the very best form last prep the horse is more than good enough to win this. The horse that stands out for mine is Egypt. Her run two back at course and distance was very solid just missing the win. She had even more in the tank last start and looks well over her true odds here.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Egypt E/W
Flemington Race 6 – 1200m – Newmarket Handicap
1. Chautauqua: Massive win first up in the Lightning and no Terravista to beat today. Last 6 runs has won 4 and been beaten 0.6L (1400m run) and 0.1L (Darley Classic). Clearly the best sprinter in the land, but that’s why he has to defy the 58kg today.
2. Delectation: Got the better of Chautauqua in the Darley Classic last prep and meets him 2kg better off today. On that Darley run, expect he would prefer a little more rain to repeat the effort especially based on the first up run. Not the stables first elect for mine.
3. Tiger Tees: Expected to be scratched to go north instead. Take on if runs here.
4. Black Heart Bart: Strange to see him running over 1200m. Most effective over further. Good horse.
5. Charmed Harmony: Take nothing away from the first up run over 1400m when he carried a huge weight and they ran simply way too fast infront. That run will have brought him on heading into this just like what occurred last prep heading into the Group 3 win at Sandown off a 5L defeat at Flemington. I think he is a much better 1200m horse than he is being given credit for and he will really enjoy a tough final 400m. 53kg is the key!
6. Japonisme: Weighted to win this. Massive run first up in the Lightning and proved his ability in the Coolmore last prep. I think he has gone to another level this prep and the 1200m today will suit. Most importantly, so well weighted today against every horse he met last start.
7. Churchill Dancer: He always runs well and loves this track. Just not a Group 1 horse for mine even at the weights. Has to improve on last two runs to place.
8. The Quarterback: On both runs this prep it’s very hard to consider.
9. Keen Array: Will be ridden much quieter than his Oakleigh Plate run. Down in the weights again coming off a gut buster. It can either destroy their chances or bring htem on especially when second up. Better weighted against Japonisme for the Coolmore run, but hasn’t shown the same improvement yet.
10. Counterattack: Looked a peach in the trial at Rosehill after running a solid 3rd in the Eskimo Prince behind Spill the Beans. I’m not convinced he is good enough to win this high class race even with the 50kg. Others preferred.
11. Secret Agenda: Looked a very nice type last prep going through the grades getting a Group 3 win at course and similar distance to end the prep, but didn’t exactly beat much that day. Every chance first up at Moonee Valley the big issue and was run down late. Happy to take on here on that run.
Comments: It’s a rare occurrence that i’ll consider taking on Chautauqua, but at the prices on offer today there is just simply too much value considering the weights in the price of Japonisme on the first up run. This will be a great race and I’m siding with Japonisme just to get the better of Chautauqua in a great finish. I would note the price on offer for Charmed Harmony with the 53kg is a bit of an insult and the horse should be included as a genuine F4 chance in exotics. I’ll be on it to place also.
Confidence 75%
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 5, 6, 9
Strategy: Japonisme to win.
Flemington Race 7 – 2000m – Australian Cup
1. Happy Trails: Thought his last start run was very disappointing compared the Orr stakes run. Generally speaking his very best runs come at least three runs into his prep. Dunn takes back the ride and up to 2000m. Have to respect.
2. Preferment: Never a chance first up over 1600m in the Chipping Norton. Ran home well. Strong figures over this distance but I have to admit after his Turnbull win his runs were all pretty rubbish outside of first up. Has a lot to prove today. Has the ability on previous runs.
3. Extra Zero: His going okay this prep but certainly a massive step up in class compared to running against what beat him last start. Went well in this last year.
5. Our Ivanhowe: Old mate ran very well first up when 5th to Bow Creek. Being trained for a run around this distance this prep in comparison to last prep when the 3200m was the goal. Clearly going well enough and will be well suited by Flemington. Only issue is barrier as you would expect he will be best with clear running. No issues on wet ground either.
6. Bow Creek: Dominant win first up with a turn of foot that was uncompared over the final 200m. Got a very charmed run at Caulfield and you just don’t get those at Flemington, you have to work for it. That being said, I think he is more than good enough on everything we have seen to date to be effective at course and distance.
7. Almoonqith: Being set for the Sydney Cup this prep. Will need the run today and is a place chance at best.
8. Awesome Rock: Nothing wrong with his last start run in the Peter Young when he did it the tough way from on speed. Awkward barrier again today, but you have to believe he will have a better run in comparison. Has the ability to run well, but i’m not convinced he is a Group 1 winner.
9. Rising Romance: Good barrier so expect to be closer to the speed today. Probably get a gun run 1 out 1 back from there. Hasn’t won in a long time but went very close 2nd in the Mackinnon at course and distance last prep. Shown enough the last two starts to suggest a more forward run has her right in this.
10. Suavito: Every chance last start over 1400m in the Futurity Stakes but not good enough. Well up in distance here a big change. Only win over this distance was on a Firm 2 beating her same sex in a Group 2. Has the ability but has to improve.
11. Fenway: Every chance with the gun run of the race last start at Caulfield in the Peter Young Stakes. Has to improve on that effort to beat home Bow Creek and I can’t see it occurring.
Comments: The markets have this one absolutely spot on for mine with the top four in the market the ones to beat on potential and previous runs.
Confidence 80%
Quaddie Leg Two: 2, 5, 6, 9
Strategy: Bow Creek for 1.3 units @ $3.40 to win. Our Ivanhowe for 0.7 units @ $6.2 to win.
Flemington Race 8 – 1600m – Schweppervescence Trophy
1. Noble Protector: Looked the next big horse but was very plain last prep in the Spring. Had three trials leading into this today and showed enough to suggest she is ready for this today. Simply put, if he brings her Group 3 and Group 2 winning form from 2015, she puts this race away with a few strides.
2. Miss Rose de Lago: Very nice run first up over the 1400m and up to 1600m is where she will be excel this prep. The issue today is she is 5 runs fro 0 wins at this prep and her clear advantage in the past has been her ability to corner so well at a Caulfield to get an advantage into the straight. Will be leading and won’t be crawling.
4. Dig A Pony: Nice enough runs leading into this. Had every possible last chance but found three too good in a close finish. Much harder here. Will have the tempo on which she likes and a bit of rain couldn’t hurt.
5. Vital Importance: Not a winning chance based on her last few runs. Take on.
6. Metaphorical: Going nicely enough this prep with a close 3rd to Signoff/Lidari as the very best run leading into this. A big question over if this is the horses best distance and the fact she has run at Flemington 3 times for 0 places. Shown enough to suggest can win.
7. Sure You Can: Very much a non-winner having so many opportunities last prep where she fell just short. First up today and well up in class. No thanks.
8. Mossbeat: She continues to try and try but just seems to find a few too good every start. Probably her hardest test to date up to the 1600m in this class. Others preferred but she should be considered for exotics from a good barrier.
9. Lilly Dazzler: Very disappointing in the Group 3 first up in Launceston. Hard to have on that run.
10. Anaphora: Came home very well over the 1400m first up and looks better suited by the 1600m here at a track where she can wind up. Don’t dismiss or take her lightly.
11. Felicienne: Out the back last start at Caulfield when came home well. Up to 1600m where she is most effective. 1 win from 1 run at this track in the past. Has to improve on last start run and from barrier 1 expect to be ridden closer to the speed.
12. Redasun: Every possible chance last start at 1400m and just didn’t have the turn of foot. Up to 1600m and a tougher tempo to be set should suit her better, but she has to improve.
13. Alaskan Rose: She is a nice type and going quite well this prep in comparison to her last few runs of last prep, but this is a big step up to open grade and i’m not sure she is going that well here.
Comments: I’d feel very uneasy betting confidently into this race today. Miss Rose de Lago and Noble Protector are clearly the top rated horses here by a mile while Metaphorical and Anaphora are equal to the task of taking the next step up on what i’ve seen to date.
Confidence 65%
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 2, 6, 10
Strategy: Noble Protector to win.
Flemington Race 9 – 1400m – My Kitchen Rules Stakes
1. Smokin’ Joey: Old mate Joey. Won in Group 3 company two preps back. Last prep one disappointing run and was very plain first up. Couldn’t back on what i’ve seen so far.
2. Tried and Tired: Been a long time between drinks but he really never runs a bad race. Ran well three runs back at course and distance and then backed that up with another second the next start. Not convinced the form out of those races though is top class and he has to have improved onwards again.
3. Tristram’s Sun: Big weight and needed further first up. Has won over this distance in the past but his very best comes later into preps over further.
4. Coronation Shallan: Group 3 winner beating Azkadellia last prep over 1600m at Moonee Valley from on speed. Ran a solid third before that at Caulfield. Also ran a respectable 7th in the Emirates here behind Turn me Loose. Has to be respected.
5. Jimando: Very disappointing run first up after 340 days off. Trainer certainly knows what he is doing and this bloke has measured up many a time in similar class.
6. Jessy Belle: Well backed last start at course and distance. Ran on well enough but never looked likely to go close. This looks a little easier on paper and has to be considered a big chance.
7. Petrology: Sandown Guineas winner. Ultimate gear change. Gelded. Last two preps he has failed to fire with the best run being a 3.25L 3rd. Clearly has the ability if going well enough. Not in the stables best two at the track today though.
8. Yesterday’s Songs: Very talented type that has gone around single figures almost every run the past two preps and not delivered a win. Third up and first run this prep over 1400m, from barrier two he will have every possible chance if good enough.
9. Sweet As Bro: Quite a strong run first up over 1200m at course. Rising 6YO now, He generally runs well over this distance. His first up run was the best i’ve seen in quite a while from him and I’d expect a good showing here.
10. Master Zephyr: Won his last two runs of last prep… both over 2500m. Not at this distance in this class for mine.
Comments: Wide open race with no clear standout top quality Group horse in the race outside of Joey who is so poorly weighted off a horror first up run that you just can’t touch him. The two favourites haven’t won in the last two preps while the 4th favourite hasn’t won in two preps either. It says a lot about the race really on that information alone. Coronation Shallan is the horse that most interests me in this race. Won a Group 3 this prep, ran 3.6L 7th behind Turn Me Loose in Group 1 here this prep. Last prep ran 0.2L 3rd to Amovatio and Mr Utopia. Handles the track and will handle being on speed with the pace set. Looks a great price in this race.
Confidence 65%
Quaddie Leg Four: 2, 5, 6, 4, 7, 8
Strategy: Coronation Shallan E/W
Rosehill Race 5 – 1100m – Smooth FM Maurice McCarten Stakes
This is a strangely priced up market for mine. Alberto Magic is 1 win from 4 starts on good tracks and 5 wins from 6 runs on soft or heavy. It’s going to be a Good 3 and the horses peaks have been on wetter tracks. Hasn’t measured up to this grade yet and I just have to take the horse on.
Of the favourites, Craftiness is the clear standout off the gut buster first up.
But my betting $$$ are looking at Decision Time.
Decision Time hates it wet with 12 runs for 1 win on soft or worse. On the other hand, 9 wins from 26 runs on Good.
Decision Times last three runs on Good were a Group 3 win over 1200m, 4.3L off WINX in Group 2 company over 1300m and then his very last start over 1200m 0.1L 2nd to Big Money. Barrier 5 suits as well.. just simply well over the odds today and has to be bet.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Decision Time for 1 unit @ $21/$4.60 Each-Way.
