Welcome to The Profits form guide for 25 June 2016 at Eagle Farm and Flemington. Both tracks are expected to be in the soft range and we don’t know exactly what to expect from either track, with Eagle Farm certainly the more unpredictable of the two. When that’s the case, I always find identifying horses that will be just off the speed can and will be able to generally still find the best positions in running with the right ride. There looks to be a fair bit of value on the cards down in Flemington and surprisingly for once the data analysts figures are also supporting what my old school by the eye and paper form has seen so it will be interesting to see how that translates into results. As always, I hope your form matches up with mine! Good luck and happy punting.
Best Bets
Eagle Farm Race 8 – Danish Twist for 1.5 units @ $6/$2.25 Each-Way
Flemington Race 5 – Jacquinot Bay for 3 units @ $4.20
Next Best Bets
Flemington Race 7 – Award of Merit for 1.5 units @ $3.50. Leveraction for 0.5 units @ $15.
Eagle Farm Race 3 – Amovatio for 1.5 units @ $3.80 to win
Best Value Bets
Flemington Race 6 – Sir Sagamore for 0.5 units @ $26/$7 Each-Way
Flemington Race 1 – Moshway for 0.5 units @ $26/$6.50 Each-Way
Flemington Race 3 – Sikeleli Afrika for 0.25 units @ $81/$21 Each-Way
Flemington Quaddie
Leg One: 1, 4, 7, 14, 15
Leg Two: 1, 2, 3, 5
Leg Three: 1, 3, 5, 6, 9, 10
Leg Four: 2, 3, 7, 11, 15, 18
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use for the basics – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Our results are updated daily here – Betting Spreadsheet
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Eagle Farm Race 3 – 1500m – FKG Group Spear Chief Handicap
1. Hopfgarten: On speed last start at Eagle Farm on a day when it was suited.. got the lead into the straight and never looked likely to be chased down. Up to 60.5kg today giving up a small amount of weight. Goes okay on softer tracks on past runs but does take away the dash a little bit.
2. Amovatio: Only the 1 win from 15 starts on softer tracks is a concern. Has a huge turn of foot and chased home very well last start from last in running from a terrible barrier. Barrier 5 and a smaller field today, if it drys up to closer to a soft 5 then he is a big chance here.
3. Tales of Grimm: 1 win from 11 starts on softer tracks. Hasn’t won since the Scone Cup win. Hasn’t produced enough this prep for me to be convinced of a win.
4. Bewhatyouannabe: Listed winner over this distance a few times in the past. This is his hardest test to date and comes in off a very bad run last start. Not a wet superstar either.
5. Aldini: Beaten at Gold Coast last start in easier a concern on a soft track. Previous runs only fair. Hard to suggest on current form.
6. Beckham: Bm-85 winner last prep at his best. First run ran very well 2nd to Ninth Legion at Ipswich. Handles the soft it appears. Was a solid on speed run last start but has to improve again to go one better.
7. Electric Power: Randwick winner in the past. Goes best on softer tracks and gets that here. Coming into this hasn’t placed in the past four runs in similar grades of races. Has to find another gear.
8. Glendara: Huge step up in class again. Goes well on soft tracks. Last start was an okay run without being overly impressive in a 20k race. Hard ask.
Comments: Really looks a tale of two horses this one in Hopfgarten and Amovatio. I don’t think Hopfgarten will have as good a time today as always start and Amovatio only has to make up about 4 lengths on the leaders instead of 8 like last start and that’s where the turnaround in form can come.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Amovatio for 1.5 units @ $3.80 to win
Eagle Farm Race 8 – 1400m – Tatts Tiara Group 1
1. Azkadellia: Good lead in run 2nd to Music Magnate in the Doomben 10,000 but last start ran flat in the Stradbroke when held up in the straight and no run on. Obviously a good type and will appreciate the soft track. Out the back and needs luck.
2. Danish Twist: Very strong win last start at Randwick back to the 1100m. Better over further as shown by G3 win over this distance two back. Best runs have been on softer tracks in the past. Top class type and should push forward from barrier 1 to get a good spot today just off the leaders.
3. Precious Gem: Never runs a bad race and was a respectable 6th in the Stradbroke from out the back. G1 winner the previous start as well. Have to consider.
4. Cradle Me: Easy enough G2 win last start at course and distance. Best seen on firmer tracks a bit of a concern. Barrier also hurts ambitions to be further forward today. Next level race this.
5. Miss Cover Girl: Hasn’t won in a very long time. Okay enough 2nd first up but well beaten the last two starts and hard to see the turn around here.
6. Jessy Belle: Thumps last start when running 3rd to Cradle Me at course and distance. Goes well enough on wetter tracks… been a while between wins and those missed wins have been in easier. Not for me.
7. Sultry Feeling: Group 3 winner x2 this prep. Average run in the Sangster… kept fresh again here. Has to improve but has ability. Barrier hurts.
8. Press Report: Failed to fire the shots required this prep to suggest she is a winning chance here. One to take on.
9. Scarlet Billows: Not the best ride ever last start when asked to do a load of work and just couldn’t. Best run past was four back at Caulfield and hasn’t repeated that since. Barrier hurts.
10. Echo Gal: Handy enough on softer tracks. Last start run every possible chance when 3rd behind Blueberry Hill. Hard to see the required improvement but the barrier does help her chances.
11. Artistry: Nice run last start when 2nd to Cradle Me from midfield. Put in some solid sectionals. Issue is 3 runs on soft or heavy for 0 places. Awkward barrier also.
12. Palazzo Pubblico: Two wins in a row in much easier grades than this coming into last start when hit the line strongly for 6th behind Danish Twist. Has to improve onwards today.
13. Onemorezeta: Had her chances last two starts when well beaten both times. Not exactly suited by track condition or barrier.
14. Beatniks: Last win was in BM-85 grade. 6th behind Cradle Me last start and well beaten by same horse previous start. Will improve on softer.
15. Blueberry Hill: Well beaten all runs previous to last start this prep… finally got a softer track and produced her best effort with a nice strong win at Ipswich. Will be coming hard late.
16. My Poppette: Hasn’t produced much since the first up BM-78 3rd at Caulfield. Has to improve on what we have seen too date and the barrier makes it near on impossible.
Comments: Not the classiest Group 1 race you will ever see and on my numbers there are only a few key chances. I can’t even think about taking the favourite in Azkadellia at the horrible price on offer. She will be well back in the run and need luck and the track to play correctly. All signs point towards Danish Twist who will be on speed from the inside barrier with Hughy onboard.
Confidence 85%
Strategy: Danish Twist for 1.5 units @ $6/$2.25 Each-Way
Flemington Race 1 – 1400m – Bay and Ranges Handicap
1. Moshway: Last start was just too bad to be true. I think we really just have to forgive the run and rate him on the very solid run two back at Sandown when winning well in strong class. Weighted okay with claim here.
2. Cliff Hanger: Good win last start at Sale when finished off strongly. Good win that day but has to remove it again.
3. All Out Of Love: Maiden winner last start on synthetic. Up in grade here and has to improve.
4. Cobbmore: Nice enough synthetic maiden winner last start. Looks a good type but query over the ground. Maps okay.
5. Matamanoa: On speed from inside barrier. Sound enough run first up in maiden class.
6. Curvature: Took 5 runs but finally got the win as a short priced favourite last start at Geelong. Proven to be a solid type and looks suited over the 1400m. Also handles wet.
7. Fast ‘N’ Rolling: Every chance last start over in Adelaide and was plain for mine. Better runners here.
8. Liberty Song: Well enough beaten first up but was in the worst part of the track and well off the speed. Can improve up to 1400m but needs to find much more.
9. Colonel Klink: Blocked for runs first up but rather disappointing even so when well backed favourite. Can improve.
10. Trenchant: Had his chances both runs this prep so far. Take on.
11. Futura: Well beaten first up. Not for mine.
12. Kenedna: Maiden winner. Blocked for runs last start when over-raced. Can improve and enjoys soft.
13. Shadow Prince: Fairly beaten last start. Can’t see the improvement either for mine. Take on.
14. Stornaway: Didn’t do alot right first up. Not sure I trust him here though on that run.
15. The Perfect Crop: Not the worst run first up over an unsuitable distance. Expect strong progression. Looks over the odds.
Comments: Have to give Moshway another chance at these odds today.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Moshway for 0.5 units @ $26/$6.50 Each-Way
Flemington Race 2 – 1400m – Central Region Handicap
1. Iggimacool: Won over similar distances in the past, but last two starts well beaten. Clearly looking for further i’d suggest this prep and also dryer tracks. Not convinced she is very well weighted or placed here over the 1400m and think she wants further.
2. Danestroem: Stuck on strongly even though well beaten early in the straight last start at Sandown on Heavy. Back to softer and still well suited… up to 1400m the key for this horse. Issue is 3 runs 0 places at Flemington. Should lead.
3. Nadeem Lass: Out the back as always. Goes better on soft than heavy. Last win was over a year ago in this grade. Runs this prep had a lot to be desired but best is good enough to measure up. 12 runs 0 wins at track.
4. Telopea: Well backed Weir runner but alot wanting to take her on at the price. Huge step up in class and beaten favourite last start on soft by a non-genuine horse in Sea Spray. Has to find another gear today to beat this lot even with 52.5kg.
5. Abohar: Well backed last start behind Raw Impulse and was well beaten. Previous runs were okay but nothing special… best clearly on softer tracks and gets that here. Good run wouldn’t shock.
6. Niminypiminy: Every chance and just beaten last start behind Clemency who has come out since and won. Up in class and not really well in at the weights is an issue for mine. Obviously likes it soft.
8. All About Rhythm: Will be pushing forward. Ran nicely last two starts when fairly beaten. Has to improve at weights.
Comments: This really is a tough race to be confident betting into. I have Telopea a $2.50 chance here and the odds have it right on that. Couldn’t bet at the current prices and a drift wouldn’t give me any confidence either.
Confidence 60%
Strategy: Telopea to win.
Flemington Race 3 – 1600m – Gippsland Region Handicap
2. Pin Your Hopes: 3kg claim has him well down in the weights after a strong win and 2nd heading into this over the distance on wet tracks. Looks well suited from the awkward barrier. Should get a nice run on speed. Only concern is 5 runs for 1 place at track.
3. Tap That: Good spot in running from barrier 6 expected. Japan Import who ran 2nd in Group 1 class over there over this distance as a 2YO. Hasn’t placed since the obvious concern. Did a fair bit wrong two back in a forgive run. Last start was a bit better when lost a plate. Really think the horse probably wants it to dry up… 4th up should be peaking and back to 1600m ideal here.
4. The Rumour File: Big improvement last start at Flemington when ran a bold race 1.5L off the winners in harder company. Back in class and back to the 1600m distance… I think he is looking very well suited today.
5. Distant Rock: Disappointing run 3rd from on speed last start. Better runs seen in past on firmer tracks.
6. Elite Tiger: Close last start just missing 2nd to Bradman. Up to 1600m ideal and soft track also suits. Bad barrier again.
7. Turbo Street: Beaten favourite last start on heavy. Hasn’t won in 5 attempts on wet tracks in the past a big issue for mine. Back to 1600m…
8. Got You Double: 2nd up and up to 1600m. Best runs in past over the 1600-2000m range. Claimer onboard. Expect improvement today.
9. Name The Day: Nice enough run 3rd last start behind Landslide at sale. Can run well again but barrier doesn’t give best chance in race from spot in running.
10. Mr Pago: Good horse but found one too good last start. Has clear ability and can run well on the soft track. Best seen on dryer for mine though. Good barrier.
11. Landslide: Good win from out the front last start just holding on at Sale. Can go on with it here but has to improve also. Leader.
12. Iron Spider: Non-winner. Has a lot of potential but beaten favourite many a time in the past. Never won on soft.. but handles it.
13. Sikeleli Afrika: Maiden winner over 1600m two back by 5L. Well beaten last start in MUCH easier. Struggle to suggest but the times run two back were quite sound really. Looks well overs.
Comments: Several chances on the ratings today but not a clear standout. The clear value in the race is Sikeleli Afrika from 54kg from barrier 2. Expect a spot on pace and if the speed is on like i’m expecting then she looks well suited to fight out the finish based on the two back run. Personally I think her breeding suggests she should actually appreciate the soft track today also.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Sikeleli Afrika for 0.25 units @ $81/$21 Each-Way
Flemington Race 4 – 1100m – Goulburn Murray Handicap
1. Speith: Gone through the grades this prep winning easy by 5L and 1.8L leading into this. Has won on soft tracks previously and ran well in Group class. Clearly well in here.
2. King’s Troop: Fairly beaten last start by Speith. First time down the straight also. Has ability but never really found best on wet.
3. Fireworks: First up for Hayes/Dab Stable. Group 3 winner on soft in first prep. 2nd prep found nothing. Turn around would see her go close. Been working well.
4. Rich Charm: Won last start at course over 1000m on soft. Looks nicely suited here.
5. Chase The Horizon: Had every chance last start when 5th to Rich Charm. Has to improve today 3rd up to beat these. Did run Golden Spin to 0.3L and 0.5L.
6. Crystal Dreamer: Two wins in a row heading into this. Big step up in class but has looked a progressive type all throughout his career. Has ability but has to show it here.
7. Euston Road: Good win down the straight two runs back and no disgrace 2nd to Divine Chills last start down the straight. Down in weight up in class but does like the track. Unseen on wet.
8. Chavuma: CL1 winner last start up into this. Tough ask.
9. Lord Von Costa: Ran well for 2nd last start behind Rich Charm down the straight. Loves a soft track and has run places at Randwick on similar.
10. Ragazzo Del Corsa: Horrilbe run last start in MUCH easier on the Synthetic. Not sure was suited by it. Has won at track down the straight in the past. Better on firmer.
11. Destiny’s Reward: Been running well this prep without winning. Last start was worst run to date. Not sure suited by the soft track here.
12. Make Her Own Whey: First up today. 6 runs 1 place in this class in the past. Maiden winner. Only run on soft was okay but not great.
14. Stragun: CL1 placed last start. Hard to see the progression.
16. I Boogi: Couldn’t win a maiden.. but to be fair was 6L slow out when reared and only lost 0.8L. Has ability but hard to trust here.
Comments: Wide open race with several key chances. Hard to take the Sydney form lines without runs on this straight track either.
Confidence 65%
Strategy: Back both Rich Charm and Fireworks.
Flemington Race 5 – 1400m – Brian Beattie Handicap
1. Jacquinot Bay: Very strong win first up over 1400m on a soft track at course from further back than normal in the race. Looks the clear leader on paper today and will be much better suited with the ease of lead expected. His race to lose.
2. Rhythm To Spare: Well beaten all three runs this prep. Does enjoy softer tracks and looks suited today, but hard to see the turn around.
3. She’s Clean: Doesn’t win out of turn and has been a solid 9 months between wins. Four runs this prep and best run was 6th. Well beaten by Jac Bay last start also.
4. Cellarmaster: Never won from 17 runs on a soft or heavy track. First up run wasn’t good enough.
5. By The Grace: Likes it wet and looks well suited here today from a nice barrier getting 1.5kg on Jac Bay.
6. Del Prado: Comes into this getting 1kg on Jac Bay and was certainly an unlucky run of the race last start having to get runs to get through them.. finished off nicely for 2nd. Maps well enough again here.
8. Bon Rocket: Three runs this prep and yet to win. Never placed in this grade and never won on softer tracks.
Comments: Loving the price on offer for Jacquinot Bay. Looks to get a very very easy lead out front and can control the tempo and set his own pace… expect a slow first 600m followed by a strong 800m as suits his style of racing. Grind it out.
Confidence 85%
Strategy: Jacquinot Bay for 3 units @ $4.20
Flemington Race 6 – 1600m – Western Otway Handicap
1. War Legend: Very strong win when running wide last start in the race defeating Divine Mr Artie on soft over 1600m. Equal class equal distance and long straight on a soft track again. Well enough weighted.
2. Get The Picture: Maiden only winner. Run 2nd in Group company over distance… best runs on firmer.
3. Rezak: Well beaten last start behind War Legend. Previous run won in easier grade on soft. Has ability but barrier makes it very hard.
4. Shockaholic: Very good win three back at course over 1400m. Failed hard next start. Close 3rd at Sale last start in easier. Has to improve.
5. Hursley: The wetter the better. Didn’t exactly pick up last two starts though even in the soft and heavy. Back to Flemington should help but not sure he is going well enough.
6. Justa Hint: Sent to Adelaide last start in easier grade and only managed 2nd well beaten. Step up again here and hard to see it.
7. Payroll: Good horse last prep in Group company when placed 2nd. First two runs this prep at course have been okay and luckless really and did a lot wrong. Up to 1600m ideal and D Oliver takes ride. Maps midfield at best.
9. Red Banner: Good win last start at Sale in much easier company. Huge step up again here. Has to improve.
10. Georgie’s Luce: Four runs this prep. Big improvement last start in much easier than this on soft. Up to 1600m should suit even more but has to find another gear.
11. Lunar Spin: Two runs to start the prep then found a few too good. Hard to see progression required.
13. Palace Tycoon: Every chance last start and couldn’t get past them. Hard horse to trust even off a prep best run.
14. Sir Sagamore: Never saw daylight at critical stages last start and not noted on his form. Should have won last start for mine and looks well weighted back to this today. Loves Flemington.
15. Galaxy Raider: Maiden winner. Favourite last two starts and beaten in both. Did do a fair bit wrong but hard to trust here.
16. Lady Selkirk: BM-64 winner two back. Well beaten 7L last start in easier. Has to improve.
17. Art of Perception: BM-64 2nd last start when every chance. No thanks.
18. I Am Ruben: Couldn’t win a maiden.
Comments: Another wide open race where a runner is well over the odds in Sir Sagamore. A horse that is very hard to trust, but the stewards and form missed the last start run where clearly for mine should have won but found bad luck in running. Looks well suited back to Flemington and will appreciate everything abut the surface and this race. Looks well over the correct odds.
Confidence 75%
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 4, 7, 14, 15
Strategy: Sir Sagamore for 0.5 units @ $26/$7
Flemington Race 7 – 1600m – David Bourke Provincial Plate
1. Leveraction: Strong win at course and similar distance at course on a soft track. Hard not to consider on last two runs!
2. Royal Rapture: Should sit just off the leader in Leveraction from the inside barrier today and looks well enough weighted in this grade. Appreciate the soft track here.
3. Artie’s Shore: Every chance the last two starts in harder company Open grade competition the when 3.4L and 3.6L off wins. Handles track conditions.
4. Magic Consol: Just beaten 0.5L last start behind Minnie Downs coming off a strong win in Adelaide. Appreciate the soft track.
5. Award of Merit: Open class win last start over in Adelaide. Comes back in class and gets equal weight today here. Looks very well suited and only run on a soft track was a lazy 4.3L win.
6. Aurum Spirit: Never won on a soft track previously. Two back run was solid but well beaten last start. Well up in class here.
7. It’sAll AboutHarry: Nice win stepping back in class last start. Hard to see the turn around today on Magic Consol though.
8. Ferro Nero: First up over 1200m found little but not a surprise over too short. Best over 2000M+ hard to see win here over this distance.
9. Subiaso: Good win three back. Last two runs well outclassed and up in class here.
10. Walloon Region: Looks well outclassed here.
Comments: Two clear standouts on ratings for mine here in Award of Merit and Leveraction.
Confidence 80%
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 2, 3, 5
Strategy: Back Award of Merit for 1.5 units @ $3.50. Back Leveraction for 0.5 units @ $15.
Flemington Race 8 – 2520m – Wimmera & Murray Mallee Handicap
1. Bold Sniper: Surprise winner last start over similar distance in easier class. Top weight again but down in weight again with the claim. Won’t be leading today i’d imagine.
2. Crafty Cruiser: Getting up to the distances he needs. Best runs in the past on dryer tracks though. Not shown enough this prep so far.
3. Lucky Lucky Lucky: Well beaten as 2nd favourite over 3200m last start coming off a 2800m win in similar grade. Going well enough and weighted well enough.
4. Survived: Well beaten last start back to 2000m… up to 2520m again well suited… best runs seen on dryer tracks on three back run, but I think he is fine with a soft track.
5. Falago: Every chance last start and well beaten by Araldo Junior. Hard to suggest as clear top pick.
6. Master of Arts: Two strong wins in a row. Last start simply beaten by the bias on the day. Will get a soft track again here and looks well suited. Hard to beat.
7. Angelology: Looking for the run around today you would imagine, but five runs back did win over 1800m beating Leveraction. Handles wet.
8. Like a Carousel: Hasn’t shown anything in a long time. Take on.
9. Ungrateful Ellen: Disappointing run on heavy two back. Last start in similar grade ran home well for 2nd behind Zanteca at Morphetville. Last win was over a similar distance at Caulfield. Respect.
10. Gingerboy: Old mate jumps well. Good 4th two back behind Raw Impulse. Has to improve to win on ground.
11. Streaming By: Going through the grades but even I admit this is far too big a jump up in class. Take on.
12. Wells: Jumper just here for a run between jumps.
13. Penny To Sell: Hasn’t gone close in last two preps. Take on.
Comments: Wide open race with several key chances. Master of Arts the top pick.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 3, 5, 6, 9, 10
Strategy: Master of Arts to win.
Flemington Race 9 – 1100m – Midwest Bellarine Handicap
1. Reldas: Really dislike this horse over anything shorter than 1200m.. also think he finds his best on much firmer ground and also around a bend not down the straight. First up run was very average at best and has to improve to be a factor with the big weight.
2. Alberto Magic: Very solid run last start 3rd. Looks to be returning to form and is a clear chance today.
3. General Truce: Huge run 2nd up down the straight on the soft to land the race with ease. Looks suited again here.
4. Heart Testa: Much better suited today back in distance but never won on a wet track a big concern and never placed at Flemington.
5. Hosting: Been four preps since he saw a win and that was over 1400m not 1100m. Hard to see it 0 wins from 9 at track. Would be a great raining effort. Will handle the wet.
7. Hard Romp: Nice third up run 4th to General Truce on soft. Well weighted again and probably suited up to 1100m more than the 1000m. Expect improvement and potentially a trick or two from the barrier.
8. Heart of a Lion: Well backed last start and got the cash in easier over 1000m at Morphetville. Much harder here first time down the straight. Goes well on soft. Group 3 placed in the past.
9. Mirage: Every chance this prep to get a win and failed to get close to one. Not convinced he wants the sprint distances… especially wet.
10. Atmospherical: Last win was at course over 1000m in this class in 2014. A long time between drinks. Handles soft. Goes well down the straight but has been 4 months between runs.
11. Bullpit: Never runs a bad race. Strong run again last start 2nd to General Truce. Weighted very well again today from a good barrier. Not 100% convinced he is better over 1100m than 1000m though.
12. Majestic Duke: First up today and never won first up or in this class either and needs further.
15. Odyssey Moon: Huge effort last start to get the win at Sandown over 1300m. Back to 1100m certainly a test for the horse. Did handle the straight two back and will be more on speed today I imagine as per last start. Loves the wet.
16. Our Nkwazi: Hasn’t won since that faithful day last year when well backed on a soft track over 1000m. Never won at track an issue and not going well.
17. Rich Jake: Never runs a bad race and last start ran a blinder again but found one too good in Olivier. Handles soft tracks. Close 2nd at track in past also. Tough class.
18. Berlutti: 1000m Sandown winner first up on soft in good time. Was a solid win heading into this. 4 runs 0 places in this class but three back run had merit.
19. Runsati: Looked the real deal last prep but failed to show it the final three runs of prep when it counted. Has to improve in hardest test first up today on a track condition that won’t suit.
20. Ruettiger: Another that always runs well. Three runs this prep short of being close to a win though.
Comments: Very hard race to finish the day. General Truce is hard to ignore at double figure odds while Odyssey Moon is obviously weighted to win and going the right way about things.
Confidence 65%
Quaddie Leg Four: 2, 3, 7, 11, 15, 18
Strategy: General Truce E/W
