Welcome to The Profits form guide for Melbourne Cup Day at Flemington on the 3 November 2015. The Melbourne Cup is upon us and we look forward to an amazing day of racing. This is always one of the hardest days of the year to win on the punt. The advice as always is to pick only a few races to have a good bet on and to skip the rest if possible. It was great to land the Quaddie on Derby Day with $100 turning into $1000! Hopefully we can do similar today. As always, i hope your form matches up with mine. Good luck and happy punting.
Melbourne Best Bet
Flemington Race 10 – Wawail – Each-Way
Melbourne Next Best Bet
Flemington Race 6 – Three Horse Play – Valley Sweetheart, Don’t Doubt Mamma and Irada to win
1.35 units to win on Valley Sweetheart. 1 unit to win on Don’t Doubt Mamma. 0.6 units to win on Irada. Odds for any of the three horses to win turns out to be around $2.75.
Melbourne Other Bet
Flemington Race 5 – Two Horse Play – Spill The Beans and Ability
Back Spill The Beans for 1.5 units. Back Ability for 1 unit to win.
Melbourne Quaddie
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 3, 4, 5, 10, 15, 20
Quaddie Leg Two: 4, 6, 7, 9, 10, 15
Quaddie Leg Three: 2, 3, 4, 12, 17
Quaddie Leg Four: 2, 3, 4
We have gone very wide today in the Quaddie. There looks to be every possible chance that double figure odds runners could win all four legs which would add a lot of value into the Quaddie. We are looking for at least two outsiders ($10 or above) to make a profit. Couldn’t go any shorter without removing the value from the price we are getting.
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Flemington Race 1 – 1000m – Emirates Airline Plate
1. Missrock: The way she won last start at Caulfield clearly makes her look like a superstar. Perfect barrier today to get her in a nice enough position to settle off the speed and finish over the top. If she handles the straight, it’s hard to see her getting beat.
2. Bangs: 2 runs to date and found a few too good so far. Well beaten last star tin the 2YO Inglis. Happy to take on.
3. Moshki: Nice enough run over the 900m first up at Bendigo in maiden class, but clearly has to improve to be a factor here with the times run.
4. Concealer: Two solid trials heading into this. Respect the stable and jockey onboard.
5. Exilia Miss: Unseen $70k purchase. Market will tell you what you need to know.
6. Infra Dig: A few pieces of gear on today. Well bred as you would expect from this stable. Nice enough trial heading into this over 900m. Bit of a drift since markets opened.
7. Jester Jewel: Unseen. Market will tell you what you need to know.
8. Motown Lil: Not the best trial going around but Smerdon runners can do that this early on the way he likes to trial them. Been well backed since markets opened.
10. Peeking Duck: Unseen and on the drift in the early markets.
11. Pop: Another unseen horse. No market movement in early markets.
12. Prompt Response: Looked good in the trials. Well bred. Winkers on. D Oliver onboard.
13. Secretary of State: Unsupported in the markets and unseen on the track.
14. Stop Making Sense: Nice trial run and money has come for her.
15. Tris: Horrible run first up on speed and fell out quickly. Suspect they will ride colder today. Has to improve.
Comments: Horrible betting race to start the day. I really think these races are a blight on such a great day of racing where punters are given a race where half the runners have never been seen on the track before or even at the trials. Something has to change. Missrock is CLEARLY the best horse heading into this so the price on offer does look backable considering the win at Caulfield.
Confidence 20%
Strategy: Back Missrock @ $1.80 to place.
Flemington Race 2 – 1700m – TAB.Com.AU Trophy
1. Precious Gem: Has runs on the board at this track having won in the past. Three runs back a close 2nd in Group 2 company behind Amicus. Last two runs have been beyond poor though well beaten. The horses best runs have been when there have been slow to medium tempos. Times of the two expected leaders today suggest they won’t go overly hard. Forgive last two runs.
2. Zarzali: Well fancied Cummings yard runner. Would be great to see them get a win on the day. Respectable third over the 1600m in Group 3 company last start from out the back. Will be much closer to them coming around the turn today in a much smaller field. Third up should be peaking. 4th in a Group 1 on record last prep. Good enough.
3. Lilly Dazzler: Winner at course and similar distance last prep on a softer track in a good race. First up run never really got a run at them and was a nice run in that class. Up to a more suitable distance today also and the genius in McDonald onboard. Good barrier key.
4. Clear Direction: Last start 7th at Murray Bridge! Previous run wasn’t terrible in the Golden Nugget tough for third and run before that was dead last. Has won over this distance at Ballarat in the past but this is clearly a step up in class again.
5. Inishowen: Promised a lot and delivered very little on the track in her last two preps. Hard to see the improvement on the last two runs but obviously an easier race.
7. Cathy’s Mark: Good win last start as favourite at Ballarat after a very poor run in the Blazer at Caulfield. Distance increase suits, but hasn’t gone close in these types of races in the past so needs to have improved again on last start.
9. So Feesable: Will be on speed today. COuldn’t win a slowly run BM-64 last start at Ballarat which is a concern.
Comments: On paper there are only a few clear chances with Precious Gem, Zarzali and Lilly Dazzler the standouts. I just can’t entertain the price on Zarzali today knowing what we know. The horse is a great chance to win, but I have the horse rated closer to the $3 mark than the $2.30 being bet. The value in the race is clearly with Lilly Dazzler and Precious Gem.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Back Lilly Dazzler to win for 0.5 units and Precious Gem to win for 1 unit.
Flemington Race 3 – 2800m – J.B Cummings AM Tribute Plate
1. Crafty Cruiser: Not just here for some sandwiches! Ignore last two starts when well below his best and rate on previous runs. It is a worry his last month for me but we know he loves this track and this is his right grade.
3. Genuine Lad: Did a lot wrong but was really horrible in the Geelong Cup. Much better than that run on last prep’s form, but he hasn’t exactly shown that form the last 3 runs. Hard to rate him an absolute favourite in the race. Best form goes close.
5. Renew: He ain’t the worst horse going around but over the past two preps he has gone close to winning once and that was over 3200m. The further the distance the greater the horses chance. Don’t dismiss but has to improve again.
6. Tremec: Won on heavy last prep over this distance range. Outside that run, hasn’t gone close including this prep. Not for me.
7. De Little Engine: Out the back in the Geelong Cup and simply wasn’t suited by the tactics. Horrible barrier again today though so it’s hard to see a huge change in tactics? Not going anywhere near as well as last prep is a massive issue.
8. Disclaimer: Over-raced last start at Moonee Valley from an on speed spot but ran a very good race… first one all prep. Not sure if that speaks of the quality of race or not though.
9. Wexford Town: Good win three back in Adelaide but since then flopped on both occasions. Just went too fast two back and last start at Bendigo just didn’t see out the race either. Barrier 21 but will be heading forward. Has the ability but last two runs concerning.
10. Jim’s Journey: Is Tmps Voleur form the right form to take this race out? I’m not sure. Ran 0.3L 3rd to Temps two back then won an easier race well at Morphetville. Has to improve but is consistent on last three races.
11. Sasenkile: Last win on record was 0.1L over Phrases which isn’t exactly top class form. All five runt his prep hasn’t got within 3.3L off a victory. Has to improve.
12. Four Carat: Nice type of horse that loves distance races. Gone through the grades last prep but reached a limit when favourite at course and class over 2500m as favourite last prep and failed. Made his way through the grades again this prep with a strong BM-84 win over 2400m last start at Caulfield. Horse he beat that day has won since also. One to follow.
14. Pop ‘n’ Scotch: 0.8L off Zanteca last start at Geelong. Can we read much into Zanteca being 0.1L off a win in the Lexus? This horse has strong enough form lines to suggest a win with a 3200m listed race 0.1L 2nd on the record up in QLD.
15. Gingerboy: Nice win at Moonee Valley last start down in grade. Won easy. 54kg looks reasonable today and finds himself better weighted against Four Carat. Won over hurdles this prep over 3300m so no issues over the distances.
16. Red Fella: Ran 2nd in the Hamilton Cup last start but well beaten 4L off the winner. Never measured up to this class in the past and last start has me happy to bet around.
17. Annus Mirabilis: Well backed last start at Geelong and well beaten by others in this race. Has ability but obviously needs to improve on that last start run and gain lengths.
18. Cuban Fighter: Huge run 3rd last start in Open company at Moonee Valley over 2040m. Best runs in the past are over these distances so the horse will appreciate the step up in distance. Will be a long way back though.
19. Falamonte: Change of tactics to lead last start at Geelong off a 4L victory at balarat. Has to improve on both those runs but Zanteca form does look solid.
20. Spur on Gold: Beaten favourite in BM-70 grade last start over 2200m. Looked a good type last prep but just hasn’t measured up to the top level this prep.
22. Packing Empire: BM-64 3rd last start. Well beaten by others in this race this prep. Take on.
Comments: This is a very wide open race. The top four in the weights clearly all have the ability on their day to win, but it’s unknown if that is today. De Little Engine has been horrible all prep i can’t believe the horse is favourite, but that shows how weak the race really is. Four Carat is my clear top pick on potential while Gingerboy looks well weighted also. Cuban Fighter looks the horse at odds that will be flying home and could cause an upset.
Confidence 50%
Strategy: Four Carat to win. Smaller bet Cuban Fighter.
Flemington Race 4 – 1400m – Lavazza Short Black
1. Good Project: Pushed forward last start in easier company at Randwick to lead all the way and win well. Will most likely be taking a sit today from the wider barrier. Has the ability to make the step up.
3. Pyrrolic: Last prep looked to be a nice type of horse but certainly doesn’t like to win. Best seen over further but still runs well at this distance.
5. Lordag: Beat an average race last start at Doomben over 1350m. Looks well suited here but has to seriously improve again.
6. Weinholt: Bit of a surprise winner in easier company last start at Geelong. Been a long time between wins. His best is good enough but needs to improve.
7. Counter Spin: Loves all surface conditions. Last start win in bm-90 grade at Morphetville was a solid win. Time was only fair for the day though… think he can run well today.
8. Durendal: I have a strong opinion of this horse on what we saw last prep. Did nothing first up but last start ran very well to win at Pakenham. Loves Flemington and step up to 1400m looks ideal to me. Looks well in at weights.
9. Turnitaround: Frustrating horse to follow. Continued to run well all last prep with a lot of placings. Best runs were over further but does run well over this distance. Never won first or second up.
10. Malaguerra: Strong run 2nd to Weinholt last start at Geelong. Won well previous run at Ballarat. 0.4L 4th at course and distance in 3YO grade last prep.
11. Siegfried: Measured up well in QLD in high classes but not at this level. Has to improve.
12. Golden Mane: Finished off last prep racing over 2500m. Best runs over further distances.
13. I’m Ablaze: His a good type but last two starts didn’t measure up to the BM-70 grade, so hard to see the win here.
14. Orient Lane: Well beaten last start at Geelong in easier grade. Was a good run either way but has to find much more here!
15. Sentfromthestars: 1 win on her record. Always runs well but always doesn’t get close.
16. Tashbeeh: Horrible barrier. Will be pushed forward to lead.. clearly best runs from last prep good enough but last two runs just not good enough.
18. Shintaro: Every chance last start in much easier at Donald and couldn’t slot a win. Pass.
20. Mantener La Fe: Couldn’t place in BM-64 grade all three runs this prep. Take on.
Comments: The one good thing about this race is more than half the field are 0 chance of winning. One standout horse in Durendal.
Confidence 65%
Strategy: Back Durendal on the Each-Way
Flemington Race 5 – 1000m – Schweppes #FlemingtonFling
1. Prompt Return: Proved to be a very good horse in his first prep when he won a Group 3 race down the straight… but didn’t exactly beat much that day. Ran 2nd in the Ballarat Magic Millions race also. Came back from spell and failed first up and failed even harder second up. Hard horse to rate today but if the money comes then you have to consider he has recovered from the injury that clearly affected him last prep.
2. Real Good: Will sit just off the leaders today. Ran some nice races up at Doomben behind some decent types. Never got a win but did run well in those. Did take a Listed race at the Sunshine Coast. Obviously have to improve but has the ability.
3. Spill The Beans: Ran gamely behind Counterattack last start in the Brian Crowley. Counterattack came out in the Coolmore and ran very well also. Won in the past over 1100m in good races including a win over Holler at Randwick! Clearly a good horse with loads of ability.
4. American Star: Strong 2.5L maiden win in good time to start the prep.. Close 2nd beaten in a good race as $1.65 favourite next start by 0.1L and then went around $1.28 favourite and won by 4.3 lengths. Obviously has ability.
5. Viceroy: Nice run as favourite last start at Moonee Valley but never got close to the classy winner. Has ability.
6. Faatinah: Two solid runs this prep after the Synthetic win. Clearly this class of runner but has to improve. 1400m back to 1000m.
7. Ability: Going okay enough the last two runs but been well off winning in the top level. 1.2L off Keen Away in his best run and looks well suited over the distance.
8. Stragun: Had to go to Murtoa to win a maiden… not exactly the best form lines but it did pay okay. Well beaten as favourite last start at Bairnsdale in easier company.
9. Divine Mr Artie: Cranbourne win with ease first up at Cranbourne from on speed as a favourite. Much harder this.
10. Miss Gidget: Maiden only winner. Ran 2nd to Fontition at Caulfield as her best run in the past. Wide no cover last start at Moonee Valley and was a forgetable run.
11. Invincible Heart: Solid enough win at Caulfield two back but well beaten last start with a harder tempo on speed. Have to improve again.
12. Purrpussful: Gun run last start at Caulfield up in grade but was a very poor run. Nice win two back. Forgive last start?
13. Parcel: Two runs in a row were solid in BM-70 grade. Needs to improve but has the ability.
Comments: On my ratings Spill the Beans and Ability are the two to beat today and the market agrees. I think there are only 3 other runners that could win so this does look a race where you can bet.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Back Spill The Beans for 1.5 units. Back Ability for 1 unit to win.
Flemington Race 6 – 1400m – Lexus Hybrid Plate
1. Mihalic: Little support for her all two runs this prep and has run accordingly, never a threat. Can’t see it changing today.
2. Reemah: Won her maiden well at Geelong but that was little surprise. Two runs since has shown very little. Up to 1400m today to try something different. Her best is more than good enough, but it’s hard to suggest that will occur today.
3. Serenade: Started single figures the last four runs and has failed to get beyond 3rd in a race with all 3 runs this prep being 3.3L off a win. Must change something and doesn’t exactly look better suited over 1400m.
4. Andrioli: Big start to finish win last start at Caulfield – was well backed that day after not winning her three previous runs. Flemington is much harder to do the start to finish win on but she maps to get a nice spot on speed.
5. Don’t Doubt Mamma: Talented filly. Beat Sacred Eye two runs back which is very good form lines. Didn’t exactly get the full 1600m last start and was a touch flat, forgive the run and rate on her best. Will sit midfield.
6. Denpurr: Going well this prep. Won at Warwick Farm with a sit then ran well after missing the start for 1.3L 6th in 3F-LR grade. Last start top weight at Randwick just missed. Clearly going well enough to measure up here.
7. Comprende: 2YO winner over 1000m. Well fancied horse by the stable and punters. Strong 3.3L win in much easier class last start at Morphetville. Broke the clock that day though so you have to respect the horses ability.
8. Tiz My View: Ran nicely enough last start behind Lake Geneva, but certainly has to improve to compete here. Poor barrier.
9. Queen of Wands: Nice enough filly who got a 2YO win over 1300m at Sandown beating the lesser class 2YOs. Came back this prep and been in much easier races to measure up.
10. Valley Sweetheart: Huge run last start at Moonee Valley. Top class form lines to bring into this race today. Looks very hard to beat with a repeat of that run from midfield as long as the horse handles the setp up to 1400m.
11. Hell of Highwater: Blocked for runs last start behind Andrioli and clearly should have been closer to a win than lengths suggest. Issue is if the horse can make the extra step up to this race today and improve onwards.
12. Irada: Didn’t ever have clean running last start at Caulfield and should have placed. Will be much better suited back to Flemington today and looks a clear chance.
13. Maysam: Good enough win in maiden grade but this is a huge jump up straight into this today. Hard to suggest.
14. Indarra: Couldn’t win a maiden last start and no excuses. Struggle to suggest.
15. Navita: Maiden winner from out the front off a soft tempo as a huge priced underdog. Not here.
16. Raggle Varr: Close to 4 length victory out the front on the biased Cranbourne track at big odds. Clearly has ability but will be very hard to replicate it in this grade.
Comments: Three stand out horses in this to me with Don’t Doubt Mamma, Valley Sweetheart and Irada ranking on top. Very happy to back all three today for a reasonable priced result. At curernt prices, Valley Sweetheart $6, Don’t Doubt Mamma $8s and Irada $14, we can beat all three of these for a return of $2.75+ odds.
Confidence 85%
Strategy: 1.35 units to win on Valley Sweetheart. 1 unit to win on Don’t Doubt Mamma. 0.6 units to win on Irada.
Flemington Race 7 – 3200m – Emirates Melbourne Cup
If money spoke, then it would say Fame Game had already won the 2015 Melbourne Cup, but that’s not how it works! The money has flowed in for the Japanese superstar since being nominated and flying out for this race. But like with any race, horses need everything to go there way to win a race and the odds being set suggest Fame Game only wins this race around 22% of the time. So that’s why we do the form – looking to see if the price set for Fame Game is actually worth backing and of course to identify which horses are the main threats to the favourite. We are expecting a Good track on the day and a medium tempo to be run in the race.
1. Snow Sky (16)- 58kg: Looks a natural front runner in a race lacking in speed. If they ask him to take them around, they may be shocked in the crawl they have to endure out the front with a medium to slow tempo the only option with top weight. Has a final 1200m consistent sprint to win this. Races best on the rail. Can’t understand the drift on this horse, Caulfield Cup run a perfect lead in.
2. Criterion (4)- 57.5kg: Never run over this distance coming off a 2040m run. Never run over 2500m in the past which is certainly a deep concern. Ran up to standard in the Cox Plate last start for second and we saw Fiorente in the past use a placing in the Cox Plate as a jump into a strong Melbourne Cup win. Has tactical speed in his legs to gain a place closer than midfield. I would expect them to use the inside barrier to their advantage. Top ratings over shorter distances good enough to win.
3. Fame Game (12)- 57kg: Nice barrier drawn today to get the position in running they want, not right out the back, but no closer than midfield. Was ridden to finish off well in the Caulfield Cup as an ideal barrier trial to this. Second in the Tenno Sho. First in the Diamond Stakes. Loves 3200m. Clear favourite and despite what everyone else is saying, the bookies have the price bang on correct under $5 is where the horse should be.
4. Our Ivanhowe (22) – 56kg: Drawn a horrible barrier today. Has been building into this run today and last start in the Caulfield Cup was an absolute gem of a run wide and just kept coming. Ran very well in the Japan Cup in the past and is a Group 1 winner over 2400m. Solely been trained for this race today. Has been training very well since the Caulfield Cup run, but drew a horror barrier for a horse wanting to get back and run on. Expect they will try and steal a position worse than midfield.
5. Big Orange (23) – 55.5kg: Surprised and shocked by the odds today. He won well at Newmarket over 2400m and then took the step up beating Quest for More and Trip to Paris over 3200m in the Goodwood Cup. He will be on speed today going forward from the wide barrier. He doesn’t have any turn of foot to speak of, but he will be battling home from a long way out and just keeps coming and coming. Started half the price of Trip to Paris and Max Dynamite in the Lonsdale Cup – doesn’t handle wet – and has higher ratings than Trip to Paris back home. Price is wrong.
6. Hartnell (17) – 55.5kg: Disappointing run last start in the Cox Plate for fifth beaten 10 lengths. Only run over this distance was last prep in the Sydney Cup with 52kg and he failed that day from on speed. Firmer track may just have him going better today than that run but his form clearly isn’t anywhere near as good as the lead into the Sydney Cup.
7. Hokko Brave (20) – 55.5kg: Just ignore the fact he even went around at Caulfield. Horrible barrier again is a massive issue today. His run in the Tenno Sho was good enough to measure up to this and he stays out strong 3200m distances, so if the speeds on, he will continue to come and come and come to the line. The issue is his work just hasn’t been anywhere near as good as you would hope for a horse leading into this. Has to improve.
8. Max Dynamite (2) – 55kg: Measured up well in high quality races a few years back then had 2 years off. Was sent over the hurdles and handled them well, but he was only able to claim a maiden with placings in group company over the hurdles. They decided to send him around in the Lonsdale Cup and pulled it off. 5 runs for 0 wins on good tracks in the past… runs okay on it but clearly best runs when there is rain around. Would have to repeat his peak run in the Lonsdale Cup to be a chance here. Good barrier helps. The positive for this horse is that he has a strong turn of foot and will be suited by Melbourne racing.
9. Red Cadeaux (8) – 55kg: Well beaten by some average types last start in the Geoffrey Freer over 2600m at Newbury. Previous run in the Hardwicke well beaten also. Previous prep obviously ran well in Australia in the Australia Cup then in the Queen Elizabeth for 2nd over 2000m but failed at Sha Tin. This horse just doesn’t run poorly in Australia it seems. Can’t see Red winning, but can see Red taking a place.
10. Trip to Paris (10) – 55kg: Drew well enough in barrier 14 for a horse with a bit of speed. Expect him to get over into a nice spot just closer than midfield. Beaten in the Goodwood Cup by Big Orange and Quest for More and failed in the Lonsdale Cup. Group 1 winner over 4000m previous run beating Kingfisher. Won the Chester Cup over 3755m also. Clearly stays for days and has a turn of foot as shown in the Caulfield Cup. Ideal type of horse…. but does look very short in the market.
11. Who Shot Thebarman (6) – 54.5kg: We know this horse gets the distance which is a big bonus. 2nd in the Sydney Cup last year and ran third in this last year. From barrier 13 last year he settled midfield, so from barrier 6 you have to believe he will sit midfield again, compared to settling dead last in the Caulfield Cup from the wide barrier. Looked an ideal lead in. Has the ability to win.
12. Sky Hunter (7) – 54kg: First start ever over this distance, a bit strange to see a horse who hasn’t won in Group 1 class or run over this distance get weighted into a race like this, but that’s what happens when you own this stable! Runs well on all surfaces but career peak runs have been on softer tracks. Does handle a Good track… best runs been at 2400m. Has to improve obviously on the last start run to be a chance.
13. The Offer (13) – 54kg: One time Melbourne Cup favourite last year, he measured up to win the Bendigo Cup last start but at the weights he is no chance to win in my opinion. Yes, he will get the distance, but he would need the rains to come and they aren’t on the radar.
14. Grand Marshal (15) – 53.5kg: I don’t have a large opinion of this horse at all, yet he did win the Sydney Cup beating a nice type in Who Shot Thebarman that day. His best run to date was on a Soft 7 track and we are expecting a Good track for the Cup. His Caulfield Cup run showed very little… Waller knows what his doing though. Will get a long way back from the barrier.
15. Preferment (11) – 53.5kg: No match for them from the back in the Cox Plate. Tough run. Weighted much better obviously in this race today. The query has to be how well the horse went over 2000m this prep and whether the jump to 3200m is suitable or not on current form. Will get the distance. Barrier 11, probably be far back, but wouldn’t be shocked if they sat closer to midfield from that barrier.
16. Quest for More (21) – 53.5kg: Horrible run in the Geelong Cup. Never seemed to let down and was never suited by the track. Back to a longer distance and a longer straight should be ideal for this grinder. Previous 5 races he ran first, second, first, first and second over 2400-3200m. Beat Max Dynamite over 3200m last prep before running second to Big Orange in the Goodwood Cup.
17. Almoonqith (10) – 53kg: Ran sixth to Brown Panther in the Dubai Gold Cup at Meydan to finish last prep. Previous runs saw a first in the Nad Al Sheba over 2800m. Gets better as the distances increase so 3200m should be ideal. Very strong win in the Geelong Cup to gain a run today and looks well enough weighted with 53kg.
18. Kingfisher (9) – 53kg: Measured up in the past as a good type. His Irish St Leger run was one to forget while his trial run wasn’t great either. His better runs this year are worth mentioning through with a 2800m win with 60kg followed up by 2nd to Trip to Paris in the Gold Cup.
19. Prince of Penzance (19) – 53kg: They have never run her over the distance in the past, but the way he runs out 2600m races and how he ran out the Moonee Valley Cup on speed. It’s great to have a female riding in the race for mine with Michelle Payne retaining the ride. 53kg, from barrier 1 expect him to be positioned just off the speed… if they don’t put much pace on he certainly has the turn of foot to put on a show… could shock.
20. Bondi Beach (18) – 52.5kg: Beat Order of St George in the Curragh Cup (6 lengths to 3rd – Order of St George then won 3 races in a row by 5L+ and they were good fields) before running 2nd in the Great Voltigeur at York and then losing the St Leger at Doncaster. Goes well on firm tracks and has some very good form around some very nice horses. Most importantly he gets in today at the lowest of weights and has a good Melbourne Cup winning jockey onboard. Barrier 18 the disadvantage… will try and get a spot around midfield.
21. Sertorius (5) – 52.5kg: The worst runner in the race. Shouldn’t be in it. Take it on.
22. The United States (3) – 52.5kg: Stable believe he is good enough to win. I have my questions based on all his runs this prep… yes up to 2500m he won very well last start, but he has to improve significantly on that run again to beat this field. Where do they ride him? Barrier 3, you have to go forward and sit say midfield? Never run this distance in the past so unproven really. Moreira a positive booking.
23. Excess Knowledge (24) – 51kg: Didn’t beat much last start in the Lexus to win over Zanteca – was lucky to do so. This is a step and 100 jumps up from that race. Even with 51kg, from barrier 54kg, i can’t consider.
24. Gust of Wind (19) – 51kg: Very good run in the Caulfield Cup with the low weight for 4th. 51kg again here but drew the car park in 19. Going to be ridden quieter today.. has the turn of foot required to win such a race, but has to improve again on what we have seen to date to win.
Verdict
This is the most unpredictable Melbourne Cup speed wise I’ve seen in a very long time. Snow Sky, Big Orange, Quest for More and Prince of Penzance are the four runners expected to be closest to speed today. Snow Sky’s best runs have all been when the tempo hasn’t been fierce so i can’t see them taking it on out the front. Big Orange isn’t exactly wanting a fierce tempo either, but you just know the big boy will be pushing the tempo from about 1200m out to make a solid staying test from that point, that’s where the horse excels.. Quest for More will be right along side him doing exactly the same thing. Prince of Penzance will be taking a sit there’s no way they repeat what happened at Moonee Valley. So as you can see, I’m stuck for a strong leader… but there is always one surprise. Could Waller send Grand Marshal forward? Could Gust of Wind take the advantage? Or could Lloyd send one of his runners forward to set it up for a few of his others? It’s an amazing race of tactics.
Fame Game is the best horse in this race and is certainly the right price in the race despite what everyone is saying (they said the same about Mongolian Khan and i said the same about Winx). Tactically I wouldn’t be surprised to see them get the horse midfield at worst from the gate to have every possible chance. Clean running and a medium tempo will have the horse winning. The main threat on paper is another horse with Japanese form lines in Our Ivanhowe. While everyone focused on Trip to Paris’ run in the Caulfield Cup, Our Ivanhowe covered so much more ground that they had to give the horse frequent flyer points. It was a huge run and you can just tell the horse is going perfectly heading into this with Group 1 winning form. Most importantly, the horse isn’t just a stayer, the horse has a turn of foot. Bondi Beach looks the clear X factor in this race. My only concern is that it may be just a year to early for this talented stayer. His run in the St Leger was brave to the line and while he didn’t win, the winner has clearly backed up the form since with a classy group 1 win. I also keep looking back to his Curragh Cup win where he held off Order of St George who then went on to win his next three races by 5.5L, 7.5L and 11L (Group 1). They beat off the third placed horse that day by 6 lengths. I think he will get the absolute ideal track condition today and it will be up to the ride whether he is a chance.
The runners at odds that stick out are Quest for More and Big Orange. They will be on speed and have form lines around Max Dynamite and Trip to Paris from group races over 3200m back home, having defeated them in the past. Of the locals, I think Prince of Penzance is a live hope from an on speed position and could surprise many with a gallant run.
Top Pick: Fame Game
Value Picks: Our Ivanhowe and Bondi Beach
Top Chances
3. Fame Game
4. Our Ivanhowe
20. Bondi Beach
High Chances
5. Big Orange
10. Trip to Paris
16. Quest for More
8. Max Dynamite
1. Snow Sky
Medium Chances
11. Who Shot Thebarman
19. Prince of Penzance
17. Almoonqith
7. Hokko Brave
2. Criterion
Low Chances
18. Kingfisher
24. Gust of Wind
22. The United States
15. Preferment
14. Grand Marshal
12. Sky Hunter
9. Red Cadeaux
6. Hartnell
Minimal Chances
21. Sertorius
23. Excess Knowledge
13. The Offer
Flemington Race 8 – 1800m – James Boag’s Symphony Stakes
3. Rudy: Disappointing run at Moonee Valley last start but did go wide in the dead zone so probably just forgive? Group 2 and Group 3 2nd and 3rd this prep against decent class. Better on wetter and better over shorter distances?
4. Desert Jeuney: Surprised a few in the Cup at double figures at Pakenham last start. Always runs well and has won at this track in the past. Right in this.
5. Hopfgarten: Not going anywhere near well enough to consider.
6. Jacquinot Bay: HUGE run last start at Caulfield in Group 1 company on speed and no luck no cover yet stuck on better than most close to the speed. Well back in class and looks suited. Loves Flemington and maps to get the lead if they want it.
7. Sadler’s Lake: No disgrace all four runs this prep at all with a Group 3 win and 3.8L off Winx in Group 1 company. Has to improve on the last two runs but back to 1800m from 2000m may help. Has ability.
8. Calvin Williams: French 2014 form in group company including a WFA-LR win or two over there. Two runs in Australia and found nothing. Hard to suggest from barrier.
9. Malice: Huge price and ran quite well for 4th last start on cox plate day. Decent enough run three back for 2nd in Group 3 company and even 2 back for 3.5L 7th behind Winx in Group 1. Going the right way towards a victory.
10. The Bowler: Continues to run well and continues to just get beat this prep. Certainly on the right track… slowly away last start at Sale probably cost him the race. Good barrier unless they miss the start, could find himself out the back.
11. Tall Ship: Just not going as well as everything thinks to justify the price today. I’m his biggest fan and thought he could be a caulfield cup horse this year, i was totally wrong. Best on wetter.
12. Tanby: Old mate is looking for further. May be a warm up for run for a run on Saturday?
14. Scream Machine: Going okay! 3.3L off Turn Me Loose not the worst form to bring into this. Good run three back behind Good Value. Has to improve but have to consider.
15. Awesome Rock: Loves to run well without winning. Four runs this prep and all have been very credible. Back to the easiest race this prep off a Group 3 2nd to Stratum Star last start. Will appreciate the speed being on and will push forward to a midfield position at worst from the barrier. Look for him late.
16. Best Case: Three runs this prep and has gotten worse each time. Very happy to take on.
17. Garud: Decent enough run in the Seymour Cup last start. Previous run in Open grade at course and similar grade was good also. Obviously needs to go to that next level today to win though.. has the ability.
19. Transfer Allowance: Two wins this prep in a row beating average horses in BM-64 company. Ran okay next two runs but not this grade.
Comments: Wide open race. I’m convinced He or She is well under the odds and the same goes for Tall Ship here. The speed will be red hot and I really want to be on a Jacquinot Bay. The best horse in the race for mine talent wise outside of the favourite and will be allowed to set the tempo and will be very hard to get past. Awesome Rock is the main threat for mine and will be eating up the pace while The Bowler with a clean jump (you can’t trust that will occur) will be in with a good shot.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie Leg Two: 4, 6, 7, 9, 10, 15
Strategy: Jacquinot Bay Each-Way
Flemington Race 9 – 1200m – MSS Security Sprint
2. Kuro: Very poor run last start at Caulfield. Just ignore that run and rate on best run this prep which was his previous run.
3. Gregers: Disappointing run last start in the Tristarc when didn’t finish off the race well from on speed. Time run wasn’t overly fast either. Back to 1200m should be more suitable but has never won from 5 attempts at track. Did go close behind Churchill Dancer and Under The Louvre three runs back here.
4. Griante: Huge run two back in the Moir Stakes. Never a chance from the run he had last start from the back in the Manikato. Well back in class here today, her best runs measure up here and ran 0.2L off Politeness three back who won the Myer on Saturday.
6. Countryman: Continues to go up in grade this prep. Not good enough at the top class so far. Hard to see the win for mine on current form over this distance.
8. Sea Lord: Not going well enough. Happy to bet around him. Never won at track.
9. Fast and Free: Was a very good horse at his best before getting injured. Been off for a year and a half. Best runs over further than this distance and very best runs on wetter.
10. Pago Rock: Pulled up lame last start at Caulfield after every chance on speed. Was still a good run all things considered. Back to 1200m after a vet issue makes it hard but has won at track previously.
11. The Monstar: Every possible chance last start at Caulfield and was disappointing. Has to improve.
12. Mandla: Nice enough run first up at Morphetville running 3rd behind Flamberge getting within 1L of the victory. Goes well at this track and may have found his ability after a good spell. Looks a good chance.
13. We’re Gonna Rock: Not today not ever. No thanks.
15. The Thief: Not good enough.
16. Villopoto: Thought his run on speed was okay last start at Caulfield. Have to improve on that run though today.
17. Sarajevo: Pushed Kuro last prep at Doomben to 0.4L over 1200m. First up missed start and was horrible. Not sure what to make of this runner. Meets Kuro 3.5kg better off for that run.
18. Colours of the Wind: Looked a nice type coming through the grades but never really made the full jump. Has to peak and more.
Comments: Wide open race. Griante has the ratings to go close here and I think the price is more than appropriate. Mandla’s run behind Flamberge shows the horse is back on track for a good run today. Kuro keeps disappointing and i can’t take those short odds. Sarajevo’s best run would measure up and the horse is well weighted here. Pago Rock’s best would also measure up as well as Gregers, Afleet Esprits and even Kapernicks… it’s a wide open race and i’m not overly keen to play.
Confidence 60%
Quaddie Leg Three: 2, 3, 4, 12, 17
Strategy: Griante to win. Smaller bet Mandla.
Flemington Race 10 – 1400m – Hong Kong Jockey Club Stakes
2. Peace Force: One of the most consistent runners you will see going around. Last 10 runs the horse has won 5, ran 2nd in 4 and then third in 1. THe last four races have been in this grade range with a 0.1L defeat last start to Nayeli who she meets at equal weights again today. Will be on speed from the wide barrier.
3. Nayeli: Meets Peace Force again today after a 0.1L win. Previous form is good enough to win.. but the step up to 1400m is a query yet to win at the distance (has run well over it).
4. Wawail: Going very well! Just missed last start with Politeness running her down for a 0.1L defeat. Was a space to 3rd. Previous prep form very solid. Looks very well in today and barrier 5 is perfect. Can lead if needed but best with a sit. Ideal. Hard to beat.
5. Divertire: Going well enough with a 4th first up but failed last start. at Randwick. Has the ability winning in this grade last prep but this is a step up at Flemington.
6. She’s Clean: Nice win at Newcastle two back. beaten by Peace Force fairly three back. Last start run only fair at Randwick. Needs to improve.
7. Exclusive Lass: Beat Nautical last start at Geelong running wide during the race. Horrible barrier. Disappointing run two back. Has the ability to run well.
8. Berry Delicious: Didn’t miss a place first seven runs this prep but hasn’t placed in the last four. Form not top class.
10. Lucky Lago: Good run on speed last start at MV but had every possible chance to win it. Three back run same deal from further back. Best ridden cold I suspect. Good barrier.
11. Sultry Feeling: Consistent type that always runs well. Well beaten last start into 9th but was only 1.8L off them… has to improve obviously.
12. Traveston Girl: Ran around very well in 2014 in top class races down here… then sent back up to QLD where she hasn’t won since.. placed a few times in good races but never won. Had to win last start with the very low weight to be winning this.
13. Scarlet Billows: Think she is going well! Last two runs both had merit. Need to improve but can test them.
14. Kayjay’s Joy: Just ignore last start when not suited by the tempo. Back to 1400m key but think the Flemington straight gets her beat as she looks a Caulfield type.
15. Tahni Dancer: Well beaten last start at Geelong and two previous runs. Need to improve.
16. Thinking of You: From the back at Randwick last start finished off well behind Nayeli. Will be a long way back is the issue and hasn’t won in a long time.
17. Unequivocal: Another that got close to Nayeli and Peace Force. Giving them 0.5kg though today is an issue and may not make the field. Step up to 1400m not great for mine.
18. Into The Mist: Well beaten into 2nd last start behind Miss Rose De Lago. Two previous runs over in Adelaide were actually okay. Has some ability to consider.
Comments: Very keen on Wawail taking this race out today. The horse maps perfectly and has the form lines to knock these all off with the right run. Looks well suited and looks the best bet of the day on the each-way odds!
Confidence 85%
Quaddie Leg Four: 2, 3, 4
Strategy: Wawail on the Each-Way.
