Welcome to The Profits form guide for Cox Plate Day at Moonee Valley on the 24 October 2015. The sun is expected to be shining all day and we are in for an action packed day of racing. Once the first few races are over, the card looks to give us a very strong event overall. With the way the track played last night, expect the rail to be suitable and horses to be able to swoop 4-5 deep with little issues. As always, i hope your form matches up with mine. Good luck and happy punting.
Melbourne Best Bet
Moonee Valley Race 5 – Two Horse Play – Back Serene Majestry & Lake Geneva
Back Serene Majestry for 5 units. Back Lake Geneva for 1.25 units. Pretty keen on Serene Majestry here but feel Lake Geneva is big overs on previous best runs.
Melbourne Next Best Bet
Moonee Valley Race 8 – Lucky Hussler to win
Huge win last start and even better weighted today. Very keen.
Melbourne Best Each-Way Bet
Moonee Valley Race 6 – Bondeiger E/W
Just going along nicely this prep and the last start run was more than good enough to be competitive in this today down 3kg. Weighted to win.
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 2, 4, 6, 8, 11
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 6, 9, 11
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 2, 4, 8, 13, 14
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 6, 8, 9, 10, 12
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Moonee Valley Race 1 – 1000m – Inglis Banner
1. Dalradian: Strong maiden win at Bendigo first up over 900m. Looks handy.
2. Valliano: Blocked for runs first up at Caulfield when ran on for 3rd when Missrock flew right past them. Well backed since opening and will sit in a good spot.
3. Credible Witness: Nice trial up at Randwick. Looks to have talent.
4. Delta D’Or: No trial. Master of Design Gelding.
5. Le Meringue: No trial. Red Arrow Colt.
6. Preemptive: Not fancied first up and well beaten. Others preferred.
7. Quiet Order: No trial. Commands Colt.
8. Rata Tat Tat: No trial. Host Gelding.
9. Sweet Sherry: All you can do is win and win well and she did that first up at Flemington over 1000m! Time was sound enough and she still gets 2kg on the Colts/Geldings as well!
10. Kinetic Design: Ran a respectable second to Sweet Sherry first up at Flemington. Can improve 2nd up.
11. Pearl Congenial: Ran nicely enough first up when 2nd beaten by MissRock at Caulfield. Was well backed that day also. Only horse we have seen on the tracks competing that we know will be going forward. Barrier hurts.
12. Twist Tops: Sydney form. 4th by 2.8L first run at Randwick and didn’t exactly catch my eye. Hard to suggest she justifies the single figure quote.
13. Bangs: Adelaide form. Ran 1.8L 2nd in a 5 horse race first up. Was worth a decent amount of money that race, but clearly has to improve again. Maps nicely from barrier.
14. Emphatically: Just an ‘okay’ trial for mine. Market will guide you.
15. Pittsburgh: Well beaten in a trial. Market will guide you.
Comments: As you can expect, i’ll tell you there is no way you can have any ‘confidence’ in this race. That being said, winning form is good form and Sweet Sherry looks the one to follow forward if you like the Flemington form and Valliano looks to have improvement also from that Caulfield run.
Strategy: Sweet Sherry to win.
Moonee Valley Race 2 – 955m – City Jeep Handicap
1. Unanimously: Significantly improved run last start at Caulfield. Ran a close 2nd last prep over this distance to Platelet, who is a Group 1 winner. Barrier 2 is ideal to have every chance in running.
2. Diamond Oasis: A frustrating horse at times to back. Gone around $2.40, $2.60 and $2.10 favourt he last three runs and been beaten in all of them. Did win the previous three runs as favourite though to even out that ledger. Pulled up Lame in one of those loses and the other two were no disgrace. Comes into this well in at the weights and rates well from the barrier.
3. General Jackson: Strong win last start at Cranbourne and pays the price weight wise today. Tudor should have got past them in that race and was a moral beaten. All you can do is win and win well and the horse did that. Step back to 955m no issue. Barrier suitable.
4. Vatican: Hasn’t won in 15 starts and he is getting on in age. Has a very good record over this distance obviously. Can lead or take a sit.
5. Solsay: He continues to go just fairly and not look a winning chance. Down in weight and up in class… he loves the track but he clearly is better ridden colder. May occur today from barrier but awkward position will be had in running.
6. Tawteen: Just had to do way too much last start on speed at course over the 1200m. I think she goes well over this distance proven with a strong F&M win at course and distance last prep… well enough weighted to have to consider.
7. Magnus Reign: Rate on best runs last prep where he performed well, but he just never got to this class is the massive issue. Probably wants further also.
8. Grane: Strong run from the back last start at course and distance. Big step up in class considering weight today though. Hard to have.
9. Gallant Harmony: Horrible run first up with a fail. Much harder this today and awkward enough barrier will be working forward.
10. Steel Trigger: Huge run at odds from on speed last start. Has to improve again.
Comments: Not a race i’m overly keen to jump into betting wise. Tawteen is unders price wise but has to be considered a chance. Diamond Oasis is consistent and for those using the Sportsbet offer this is the horse you want to be on. I think General Jackson and Unanimously are both overs in the race if you are looking for that.
Strategy: Diamond Oasis to win.
Moonee Valley Race 3 – 1600m – Alliance Broking Services Fillies Classic
1. My Poppette: Can’t hate on the run last start at Flemington leading into this. Was an improvement… has to find more today though.
2. Air Apparent: Looked to be going well all run last start and finished off well in a race run and won by the leaders. Has the class.
4. Seeking Asylum: NSW form. 2YO winner at Canterbury and last two starts failed to place in FMB-75 and 3YB-70 class, but both runs had merit. Don’t simply dismiss.
5. Bengal Cat: Horrible run last start at Flemington. Similar draw today and will get back in the run…. hard to have on that first up effort.
6. Sempre Libera: Always backed in the markets and hardly ever wins (just 1 win from 6!). Can’t exactly dismiss a 2.8L 8th in 3F-GP1 coming into this. Does have to improve though.
7. Dagny: Couldn’t win a maiden her last two starts. Struggle to see it here even on best form.
8. Thames Court: The horse loves to do a lot wrong. Fourth up today hopefully they have the issues under control. Most importantly I think she is best ridden out the front by herself and that is exactly what she will get today. Will be leading and will be bloody hard to run down if she is at her best!
9. Silent Sedition: Will be out the back again today. Race last start was simply run too slowly. May get a similar issue today if not careful.
Comments: I’m very keen to be on Thames Court going forward and in this race. The horse has a lot of ability, just has been very green the last two starts. An easy lead and controlling the tempo, i’m happy with the E/W odds! Against three horses favoured in the market who between them haven’t won in their last three starts each.
Strategy: Thames Court E/W
Moonee Valley Race 4 – 1200m – Telstra Phonewords Stakes
1. Holler: Pushing forward from the barrier and should have no issues getting a spot on the speed today. Beaten by a good horse last start at Caulfield and can improve off that run here today back to the 1200m. Looks suited.
2. Demonstrate: 2 months between runs. Measured up to this grade the previous two runs. CLearly has the ability.
3. Mawahibb: Keen Array form lines.. well beaten last start over the 1200m when set a strong tempo contesting the speed. Will be going forward agian today from the barrier and will need a gem to pull off a win against this lot.
4. More Than Most: Hard to suggest he is good enough to be considered against this lot on previous runs this prep… but the drop back to 1200m may do the trick.
5. Well Sighted: Very strong 4th two runs back over a similar distance and just didn’t enjoy the 1400m last start. Tricky horse to catch.
6. Ability: As the name suggests, the horse obviously has ability… but just needs to show it today. Has to find at least a length on the favourite.
7. Brockhoff: Well beaten last start in similar grade at Flemington. Will have trained in with a month+ between runs but needs to make the next step to be in this.
8. Truculent: Decent maiden win first up this prep but failed hard last start. Think you forgive the last start run and rate on maiden win.
9. Von Vacheron: Maiden only winner and times didnt impress on paper.
10. Atlantic City: Very slow maiden victory first up. Bred well enough to suggest improvement.
11. January Rain: Average barrier trial. Struggle to see why the horse is in this.
Comments: A better barrier today would have seen Mawahibb alot shorter in the race. While there are a few chances, the clear danger for mine on paper is Holler. At the price, we are able to back Mawahibb and saver Holler.
Strategy: Mawahibb to win. Saver bet Holler.
Moonee Valley Race 5 – 1200m – Antler Luggage Crockett Stakes
1. Serene Majesty: Looked a VERY good type winning firs tup this prep but failed heavily at Randwick behind SPeak Fondly. We saw the real Serene Majesty last start sitting wide and still smashing that field. Clearly hard to ignore on last start run.
3. Haybah: Easy enough win with no tempo in the race last start at Caulfield in much easier than this. Step up again and won’t get an easy time. Looks unders!
4. Harlem River: Well beaten last start by Serene Majesty at Caulfield. Nice jockey onboard in Moore today but I can’t see the turn around in results even 2kg better off.
5. Lake Geneva: Won a maiden first up and failed to get within 4 lengths since. Hard to have on current form but do think she will be better suited today back to a firmer track. Probably value.
6. Miss Gidget: Maiden winner first up. Last prep ran 2nd to Fontition but after that failed to get close since. Has ability but tough barrier today and will have to improve significantly again.
7. Tiz My View: Didn’t measure up as a top class horse last prep when asked to. First up run was fine, but no surprise. Big step up.
8. Northern Model: Maiden winner two back no surrpise then well beaten last start. Hard to have at prices.
9. Positive Charge: 2YO winner by nearly 4 lengths last prep over 1100m at the Gold Coast, but that was on a soft track and it wasn’t as strong a race as ‘2YO’ suggests. Every chance first up has to improve.
10. Valley Sweetheart: Maiden winner, big throw at the stumps from a stable that generally knows when they have a good one.
12. Gatto’s Girl: Trialled okay but can’t exactly have here first up against these.
Comments: Serene Majesty picks herself. I think Lake Geneva is the only horse that can beat her today if produces a top rating run and we are getting high enough prices to back both. Very keen we get a result here.
Strategy: Back Serene Majestry for 5 units. Back Lake Geneva for 1.25 units.
Moonee Valley Race 6 – 2500m – Moonee Valley Gold Cup
1. Precedence: Old mate hasn’t placed in three preps, but he has been running in harder races than this. Didn’t exactly go very well last start at Flemington an issue… 5 wins at track but no places outside of that in the 11 runs.
2. Big Memory: They have backed this horse about it’s last 10 runs and it hasn’t won. Runs at this distance in the past have always been solid. Cranbourne run last start was fairly average.
3. Prince of Penzance: He was well beaten last start over this distance at Caulfield last start which is concerning and had every chance on firm ground two back at course over 2040m. Likes this track and distance but certainly has to improve.
4. Escado: Old mate always runs well. Not in this class.
5. Taiyoo: Put in an imporved run last starrt at Cranbourne when 5th to Digitalism. Up to 2500m obviously will suit this bloke and this is about how long it took last prep to hit form. Watch for money coming for the horse. Unbeaten at around this distance from 4 runs!
6. Like A Carousel: There runs this prep and all trash. Hard to have on current form. Sandown cup?
7. The United States: We just have to forgive him once again last start – running out of opportunities though. No excuses today over further with the speed on!
8. Bold Sniper: Queenies horse! Nice run two back but last start when drifted back in the running was just simply poor. Better than that run.
10. Bondeiger: Going along nicely enough and ran home well last start at Caulfield. Ran Preferment to 0.2L over this distance last prep as a 3YO. 53kg the key.
11. Bohemian Lily: She stuck on solid enough last start when 3rd to Amralah but she was well beaten off. Needs to improve to beat all of these today for mine.
Comments: Prince of Penzance, Taiyoo, The United States, Bold Sniper and Bondeiger are the five main chances here. Bold Sniper is going the right direction but needs one more run to be backed for mine. I’m honestly shocked by the price being bet on Prince of Penzance after the last two runs. Way unders. Taiyoo is going the right way and looks a bit of value in the race. Last win was over 2600m in Group 3 class. This is a race of two for mine in the end and while I’ve made so many excuses for The United States, he isn’t my top pick today! Bondeiger is going in the right direction and down 3kg today after that huge run behind Amralah, he is actually 3kg better off against Bohemian Lily, suggesting how well weighted he is.
Strategy: Bondeiger on the Each-Way.
Moonee Valley Race 7 – 2040m – Dilmah Teas Vase
1. Shards: Ignore last start and rate on previous runs. Horse has the ability to sit on speed and finish off with a Group 3 win on record and 3L 2nd to Press Statement. No surprise to see money has come for him from a nice barrier.
2. Sovereign Nation: Can’t really go wrong with that run last start in the Guineas for 4th. Looking for further and gets it today. Looks a very nice type and clear chance.
3. Last Bullet: Ignore the Guineas run out the back, but it was a disappointing finish off the race. Has ability based on two back run and is bred to get this distance.
4. Tarzino: Very good horse and favourite for the features going forward. No luck in the Guineas and shoul have finished a lot closer. Crying out for this distance today. Will be out the back and coming late. Big turn of foot.
5. Kentucky Flyer: 3YO winner this prep then well beaten last two starts. Hard to have on last two runs against these top class horses.
6. Hierarchal: 1.5L 4th in Group 1 company up at Randwick last start has to be respected here today. Maps in the 2nd half of the field.
7. Red Alto: Very strong 2nd three back on heavy but last two runs been horrible. Hard to have.
8. Tally: Lazy 7 length win at Kyneton last start in maiden company. This is obviously harder, but he is getting up to his required distances.
10. Pasadena Girl: They keep backing her and she keeps not winning. Is she really crying out for the 2000m or is she more a sprinter? Personally I feel she is a 1200-1600m horse but her best is over the 1200-1400m at the top class. Horrible barrier today! Prove me wrong.
11. Jameka: Well backed in the Guineas last start and was a super run for 2nd behind Stay WIth Me. Continues to run well and positive barrier will see her on speed here today. Looks to be no issues with the distance.
12. Sagaronne: Disappointing last start at Caulfield and even the run before. Ran 0.8L 2nd to Press Statement the previous prep.
Comments: This race looks to be the race of the day outside of the Cox Plate with several quality horses battling for the win. Tarzino is clearly the one i want to be on over these distances going forward, but can you give a classy field like this the advantage of being first into the straight? I’ll play the Quaddie but not sure I can play the win bets here.
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 2, 4, 6, 8, 11
Strategy: Tarzino to win.
Moonee Valley Race 8 – 1600m – Schweppes Crystal Mile
1. Lucky Hussler: Huge Group 1 win last start disadvantaged by the Handicaps as well. Up into WFA-G2 today which is a massive positive today and Stratum Star has won since also. Barrier is ideal… will get a gun run and every chance.
2. Hooked: Measured up to the top level in the past but never got a WFA win. Obviously will be on speed and setting a tempo out front. Struggle to suggest on two recent runs.
3. Strawberry Boy: No disgrace last start, just went way too fast in the Group 1. Has to clearly improve lengths here today and won’t get any easy lead and doesn’t want one.. three front runners today.
4. Amovatio: Good win last start at Caulfield.. horse is going well. Should have won by about 3 lengths at very least. Horses best runs for mine are later into preps, but last start he was allowed to out sprint them. Not sure he is the same level as Lucky Hussler from the poor barrier.
5. Rudy: Well beaten in the Epsom. Best runs on wetter tracks in past. Not a WFA horse for mine.
6. Bow Creek: The most interesting runner in the race. Clearly a good miler with WFA-G2 and Group 2 wins over in the UK. Last two runs though have been 5.3L last and 22L last.
7. Hopfgarten: He isn’t going well enough to consider.
8. Richie’s Vibe: Ran well last start at caulfield… but he isn’t suited up to 1600m for mine not under WFA conditions. Decent type but not this level.
9. Sons of John: Going very well this prep. Last two runs very strong and Group 3 winner last prep. Looks very progressive this guy and maps very well from an inside barrier today for once! Value.
10. Malice: Decent enough run two back behind Forget at Newcastle but had every chance that day. Not this class.
11. Turn Me Loose: Very strong win at Seymour last start. Well weighted in WFA grade here but this is a much harder race than last start. Every chance from barrier.
12. Worthy Cause: Disappointing 4th last start at Caulfield. Step up to 1600m should suit but poorly weighted against Turn Me Loose here.
Comments: Only four chances on paper from mine in this race. Bow Creek has the top ratings to win from over in the UK. Sons of John is running well enough to cause a surprise from a positive position in running and Turn Me Loose is a Group 1 winner coming off a strong win with 60kg. Lucky Hussler is the way to play, obviously, well in under the WFA weight scale. It does feel like only the ride can cost Lucky Hussler today.
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 6, 9, 11
Strategy: Lucky Hussler to win.
Moonee Valley Race 9 – 2040m – William Hill Cox Plate
The 2015 Cox Plate looks to be one of the most exciting of the past decade with speed aplenty and nowhere to hide. The Cox Plate is a unique race. Generally speaking, you always see the best horses stand up and it’s rare to see an equally weighted lesser horse get one over on the others. With a stack of quality we are presented with opportunities… but as you all know the biggest opportunity was to back both Arod and Highland Reel when it was confirmed that they were coming out here, with both moving in from $20+ to single figures with most bookies. The Moonee Valley track has been prepared an absolute treat, so don’t expect bias to play any part in a result.
1. Criterion: Ran very well in the Caulfield Stakes to hold off Happy Trails and Mongolian Khan. Drawn perfectly in barrier 7 to get a midfield run. Clearly good enough to win.
2. Fawkner: Just ignore the fact he went around last start at Caulfield and rate on previous two runs. Clearly goes well at this course and this distance. Barrier a massive issue.
3. Happy Trails: Got the ‘winners’ run last start at Caulfield but Criterion got the better of him. Always finds a way to run well in the big races. Certainly a very good lead in run last start.
4. Hartnell: Drawn to get a very good run from barrier 3. Expect to see him sit 3 sets back. Ridden cold last start in the Turnbull and was suited by a strong tempo which works out well coming into this race. Showed the turn of foot required off a tough run to put in a winning run over the final 400m. Looks the forgotten horse.
5. Mourinho: The battler from the bush, Mourinho won two Group 2s last prep and this prep improved on that record with a Group 2 win first up and a Group 1 win last start heading into this. The horse is proven at the course and over this distance, but most importantly, loves a hot speed. Wide barrier doesn’t help things, but expect him to be in the top 4-6 in running and i wouldn’t be surprised if he sits outside The Cleaner early.
6. The Cleaner: Three runs this prep for a G2 win, G2 2nd (0.1L) and G1 3rd (0.2L). Going much better this prep than last prep on my numbers and hasn’t had a hard test all prep having been going much slower the first 800m this prep. Take him on at your own risk, he has the scope to win this.
7. Pornichet: Another from the Caulfield Stakes you probably have to forgive. His George Main run was good, but he isn’t going well enough to be considered a winning chance in this. One i’m happy to take on.
8. Arod: Finished off last prep with a strong 0.5L 2nd behind Solow in the Sussex Stakes at Goodwood. Solow is the pinnacle of 1600m form right now and won another Group 1 over the weekend with relative ease. The question you are asking is will Arod get the 2000m? The horses first ever win in a maiden was the 2000m… he then ran 2nd to The Grey Gatsby in the Dante Stakes and 4th in the Derby over 2400m. His best runs recently have been between 1600-1800m, but he clearly on breeding and past results gets the distance.
9. Complacent: His win in the Craven was good, but Hauraki didn’t exactly set the world on fire in the Caulfield Cup to frank the form one bit. Will be on speed and will have to battle The Cleaner home. The Hill Stakes run suggests he can run well at the top level, but doesn’t suggest to me that he should be favoured in this.
10. Gailo Chop: Group winner over the 2000m over in France. The issue with a horse of his scope is that his best runs in the past have clearly been on Heavy tracks. He has won Group 2 races in the past over the 2000m on a Good track and did run Solow to 1.5L over 1800m on a good surface also, but this is his toughest test yet on a dry track.
11. Kermadec: Given a no hope ride last start, but his final 200m was very disappointing in comparison to others in the race sectional wise as well as the fact Mongolian Khan went right past him and beat him by 2 lengths that final 300m. I’m convinced there is a distance query on the horse and even a form query this prep on the horse. With a strong tempo expected and the barrier, I’m happy to take the horse on.
12. Preferment: He is the absolute dark horse of the race for mine. A Group 2 and Group 1 win to lead in over this distance is obviously ideal, but just how good have the wins been? I think he had great rides in both races but the concern is he only just got there in both of them beating horses that would be poorly weighted at the WFA weights in this race. The big issue for mine is with the tempo just how far back the horse will be. It’s hard to question the form lines and also the horses staying ability though, so i think he is a key player.
13. Highland Reel: Won a Group 3 over 2400m and then flew over to the USA to win the Group 1 Secretariat by a lazy 5 lengths. Followed that up by a 3.8L 5th in the G1 Irish Championship with the winner then going on to win the Arc. Drawn ideal in barrier 4, expect him to be just off the speed given every possible chance. I think the fact we know the horse handles 2400m, any surface and has run well in the past over 2000m including a G1 win, no matter what happens, he will be running well. The money has clearly come and he has been backed into favourite.
14. Winx: Smashed the field in the Epsom last start up at Randwick. Has a turn of foot that most others simply don’t have. From Barrier 1, she will be going out the back and will need an absolute dream run. She has never had to beat a field of this quality in the past and her very best runs have been on longer straights than this. I’m one of Winx’s biggest fans, but I can’t justify single figures.
With The Cleaner, Arod and even Gailo Chop in the race, you can expect a genuine tempo out the front. I’m a big believer in the fact that if The Cleaner is in the race, then you need to be midfield or further forward to be winning. Looking at it simply, i’m taking on Kermadec and Winx massively as well as Complacent. I’ve been in the Arod camp all this time and at the double figure price on offer, there is no reason to jump off now. Hartnell is the most interesting runner for mine 3rd up off a very good run, from the perfect barrier you can expect Hartnell to sit no worse than midfield and to be peaking. Highland Reel has been well backed all week and will get a dream run from the barrier and I think you obviously have to respect the horse. I took $8s on Saturday and that is the minimum I would be betting the horse at in this race. Criterion has been well backed since the last start win and I think you have to respect the horse. As my ratings below suggest, I believe almost every horse can win.
Top Pick: Arod
Best Value: Hartnell
13. Highland Reel
3. Happy Trails
6. The Cleaner
10. Gailo Chop
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 2, 4, 8, 13, 14
Moonee Valley Race 10 – 1600m – G1x Stakes
1. Atlantis Dream: Disappointing run last start at Flemington. Drifted in kind also. Watch the market, clearly good enough to destroy this field.
2. Girl Guide: Out the back last start at Flemington after an issue at the start and finished off okay considering. Clearly on speed today from barrier with a lack of speed in the race. Not proven at distance an issue.
3. Do You Remember: South African import. Hasn’t won since getting a Group 1 over 2000m in 3YO grade in 2013. Couldn’t get within 5L of a win last prep and hasn’t seen a track for 1.5 years. Hard to suggest the win without a miracle?
4. Girl in Flight: Horrible the two runs in this prep. Struggle to suggest today either.
5. Coronation Shallan: Ran quite well last start at Caulfield when 3rd in the Group 3 behind Vashka and Under The Louvre. Still, was clearly beaten on the day. Up to 1600m should give her a chance.
6. No Tricks: This is a big step back in class today and I have to admit the horse looks well placed. Ran very well in WFA-G2 company the last two starts. Weighted to win.
7. Precious Gem: Ignore last start when found nothing. Obviously better than that. Better barrier.
8. Lucky Lago: Very disappointing run from a good enough spot in running and was well backed last start. Previous run good enough to consider.
9. Manageress: Continues to run well. Loss last start backed up with La Passe winning since. Maps a dream.
10. Ballet Suite: Ignore last start and rate on previous runs. Won over 2000m in similar grade. Obviously has the ability but hasn’t won in 3 runs this prep.
11. Zarzali: Going the right way this prep. Needs further.
12. Azkadellia: Very strong win at Cranbourne against the trend as well. Can make a step up here.
13. Holy Cow: Not going well enough.
Comments: Huge price on offer in the last for No tricks and I have to take it here in the wide open race.
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 6, 8, 9, 10, 12
Strategy: No Tricks on the Each-Way