Welcome to The Profits form guide for 30 September 2016 at Moonee Valley for the Moir Stakes meeting! Our run of results continued last week with a small profit and some very close misses which is always going to happen along the way. We return to our most profitable track Moonee Valley where there is an 8 race card with some high quality runners. I’m quite confident of a few results on this card at the right prices setting us up for a very good long weekend. As always and I hope your form matches up with mine! Good luck and happy punting.
Best Bet
Moonee Valley Race 7 – Chautauqua – 5.25 units @ $2.30 & Buffering – 1.75 units @ $7.00
Next Best Bet
Moonee Valley Race 6 – Miss Rose de Lago – 2.5 units Each-Way @ $5.50/$1.80
Other Bets
Moonee Valley Race 1 – Mr Individual – 1.5 units @ $2.25 to Win
Other Bets
Moonee Valley Race 3 – Maurus – 0.5 units Each-Way @ $10/$3.20
Moonee Valley Quaddie
Leg One: 1, 2, 3, 6, 8
Leg Two: 1, 2, 4, 10, 11
Leg Three: 1, 2, 3
Leg Four: 3, 4, 5, 7, 8, 11
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use for the basics – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Our results are updated daily here – Betting Spreadsheet
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Track Report – Moonee Valley – 30 September 2016
Good 4 surface. Rail back into the True position Entire Circuit (Previous 5m).
Moonee Valley Race 1 – 1500m – MSC Signs Handicap
1. Rugged Cross: Old mate has struggled to fire this prep with his best run a 4th at course over a similar distance on a soft 7 when still beaten 3 lengths. Shown nothing the last three runs and while he is nearly a month between runs, it’s tough to see the turn around required.
2. Sonntag: Not been seen for over 273 days. Really looks a type that has suffered due to the restrictions on whipping, but even so, ran a nice race at Ballarat last prep over much further. Couldn’t suggest over this distance.
3. Radical: Showed very little first up over 1400m when out the back running on into 10th. Has measured up to metro grade last prep over slightly further than this. Clearly has ability but struggle based on first up run.
4. Sadaqa: On speed last start in harder grade when 2nd to Mihany. Certainly ran well as expected but was well beaten by Mihany. Will be on speed again from the wide barrier and can’t be discounted.
5. Marwood: Hard horse to catch. Looked a genuine star three back at Caulfield in easier grade smashing the field. Last two starts saw him well beaten. Up in distance a concern overall.
6. Zahspeed: Horrible first up. Up in class and down in weight, will be on speed from the inside barrier but expect him to still need the run to find his best here.
7. Mr Individual: Dug out of the gates hard last start in G1 company and worked up the hill at Caulfield and never got a second of peace into the wind. Was gone a long way out in harder grade. Back in grade today and up in distance… actually finds himself in at the same weights here today with the claim. Massive chance if returns to best.
8. Plot the Course: Failed to place last prep. First up ran nicely enough when never really a factor in the race 5th 4L off the winner. Hard to see the improvement even back in company today.
9. Spirit or Lager: BM-78 winner. Last start BM-70 5th. Big step up in grade and up in distance today. Struggle to suggest.
10. Riyadh: 2500m down to 1500m today. Not here.
Comments: There isn’t much depth to this race at all. Mr Individual looks the one to beat if he returns to his best form on the short backup. Sadaqa looks to get a nice run out front and Marwood looks the one to watch coming home late.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Mr Individual – 1.5 units @ $2.25 to Win.
Moonee Valley Race 2 – 1200m – Quest Moonee Valley Plate
1. Dalradian: Two runs this prep and failed to fire a punch in both races. Previous prep didn’t get a win either.
2. Ken’s Dream: Strong listed win last start at course and distance from on speed in a hot time. Gets the track the way he wants it again today. Barrier the only issue. Good enough.
3. Benz: Over from Adelaide. Won four in a row including a 3Y Handicap. Clearly has to improve to measure up at the top level but does have ability.
4. Legerity: Trialled well heading into first up run but was very disappointing. Won a 85k race last prep at Rosehill beating Archives. Certainly a horse with ability. Maps well.
5. Dissolute: Godolphin runner. Did a fair bit wrong last start but was beaten a very long way. Last prep only won a race at Swan Hill (was a fair prize money race but lacking in form lines). Barrier helps.
6. Blue Tycoon: Blinkers on. Looked the real deal last prep.. but first up didn’t show alot. Last start in easier grade found the line well from a great spot in running but found two too good on the day. Gets a nice spot again today.
7. Curvature: Trialed well heading into this race today. Last prep won a maiden and ran a very respectable 2nd to Trenchant in 2YO Handicap grade but was fairly beaten that day. Get the feeling he wants the run today and needs further to find best.
8. Moshway: Wide barrier today a big issue. Failed to fire last prep after a first up win. Not sure he is good enough.
9. Dam Ready: Respect his first up run 2nd to Ken’s Dream fairly beaten but a big distance to 3rd. Nice run last start in the G2 Danehill behind Saracino. Respect.
11. Centauro: Blinkers on. Couldn’t win last start at Dubbo and has been competing in much easier grades of races. Struggle to suggest here.
15. Apiata: Only one run and win to date in 2YO maiden grade when won quite well. Not much form though but clearly looks a chance from barrier if gets a start.
Comments: There aren’t many chances in this field even with the number going around today. Ken’s Dream looks the absolute real deal but the wide barrier is the only concern here. Manolo Bahniq could be anything if back to it’s best. The same can be said for Legerity who maps well today. Blue Tycoon has to also be respected on last start. I just can’t be overly confident in betting here without getting closer to $3.80 for Ken’s Dream.
Confidence 60%
Strategy: Back both Ken’s Dream and Blue Tycoon
Moonee Valley Race 3 – 2040m – JRA Cup
1. Real Love: Very much suited by the pace set two back at course over 1600m when 2nd behind Awesome Rock. Last start was just a sit and sprint in the Naturalism. Very much will get the race run to suit today at a track that suits her. Maps nicely from midfield.
2. Magnapal: Ran home well two back at Caulfield in Listed company. Last start in the Naturalism got home okay also. Have to admit he is going well enough to factor here.
3. Maurus: Ipswich Cup winner after running well in the Doomben Cup the previous start over 2000m. Very good trial last start to bring him on and expect him to be primed and ready to roll off a hot tempo here. Key chance.
4. Taiyoo: Still not going well enough to suggest a win or place here. Needs much further.
5. Arab Dawn: Cup winner last prep beating Allergic and Hasselhoof over 1900m. Ran home okay enough first up when 10th and will be much better suited 2nd up here today heading towards a Caulfield and most likely Melbourne Cup. Expect large improvement today.
6. Observational: Caught the eye late last start in the Naturalism that was run simply too slow to get the best out of him. Very well suited with D Oliver taking the ride today with the speed expected on. Will love the track to make up ground late and needs a strong run here heading towards a Caulfield Cup run if good enough.
7. Tom Melbourne: Disappointing last start but not disgraced when beaten in the Naturalism. Will be out the front with Nevis rolling along and should be better suited with a stronger tempo today.
8. Bold Sniper: Almost a month between runs. Was disappointing last start but wasn’t exactly suited by the sit and sprint tempo. Will be much better suited today by the tempo but i’m not 100% he is good enough to beat all of these runners today.
10. Go Dreaming: 2000m listed winner in Adelaide… looks out of place here.
11. Tarquin: Godolphin runner. Showed nothing last start. BM-90 winner last prep over 2000m at Caulfield. Struggle to suggest at the odds available.
Comments: This is an interesting race with a very interesting market. Nevis and Bold Sniper are well under the odds I have them marketed. Real Love looks backable today but the price isn’t right either. The same can be said for Magnapal who i have rated $10s. Arab Dawn is a horse I expect to improve a ton today, bit the price doesn’t represent any value either. The key runners on my radar here at Observational and Maurus. Maurus is by far the most value of any runner in the race while Observational will ahve every possible chance and is ready to fire. Tom Melbourne is where I expected, if not slight value.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Maurus for 0.5 units Each-Way @ $10/$3.20.
Moonee Valley Race 4 – 955m – Inglis 55 Second Challenge Heat 2
1. It Is Written: Looks a massive price today. Last start over 955m was 0.7L 4th with 60kg after missing the start and getting back further than normal. Very nice trial over 800m heading into this today. Well in at the weights with the claim and could come over the top of them late. Suited.
3. Tristram’s Sun: Not over this distance.
4. Gun Case: Won three in a row this prep over 975m-1000m. Last start found one too good at Sandown when top weight. Down to 55kg today after claims and looks very well suited from barrier 3. Goes well on all surfaces.
5. Gallant Harmony: 300 days between runs. Goes well always at this track but has always fallen a touch short over this distance recently with 1200m the last winning distance. Has to be peaking to win this.
6. General Jackson: Won his trial well enough heading into this given a good push along. Hasn’t won in over 10 runs but that was a 1000m win. Needs to reach a new level to win this first up.
7. Estaminet: Freedman runner that has won up to this distance in the past including a very good first up win over 955m last prep on a soft track. Won her trial very well. Could get caught 3-wide is the only issue.
8. Aunty Mo: Won 3 of 4 runs last prep all over the 955m to 1000m distances. Beat some very good horses along the way. Good first up record and looks set to hit the 955m races well again this prep.
9. Just a Bullet: Come back from up north where won at Toowoomba. Failed last start at Taree and was beaten the previous start in a 12k race at Toowomba.
10. Corsica Lad: Loves a fast run race over a short distance. Very disappointing first up at Dubbo on a heavy track when well beaten.
Comments: It Is Written is the value runner here today while Gun Case and Estaminet are the clear two to beat. Estaminet is questionable in regards to the position but still good enough to win even if gets caught 3-wide. Gun Case is the other horse to beat. I think you can get a good result here backing both runners for either to win at around $2 odds
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Back both Estaminet and Gun Case.
Moonee Valley Race 5 – 1600m – Stutt Stakes
1. Detective: Two starts for two wins this prep. Up to 1600m today looks ideal again as long as he has trained onwards. Likes a bit of give in the ground so should get the ideal surface again. Must be noted he was never losing last start due to position in running and pace run out front. Set to get a good spot on speed again today.
2. Tessera: Ran well enough last start when well backed behind Detective at Flemington. Has won at Randwick and Rosehill so should have no issues with the track. Should sit about 3 back the outside if gets the ideal ride.
3. Hey Doc: Wide throughout last start at course over a similar distance when stuck on strongly and won with absolute class. From barrier two will get an ideal run just behind the other key chances int he race. As long as he gets out at the right time, he will be very hard to beat.
4. Pyx Chamber: Looked a good type last prep when won in 2YO grade and placed 2nd in 2YO Listed grade. First up showed little when well beaten 10th. Showed a little more progression last start at Geelong but even then he wasn’t showing enough to suggest a huge improvement here.
5. Manhattan Street: 2YO winner over in New Zealand. Obviously out here with high ambitions. beaten last start on a soft track over 1300m. Certainly an unknown.
6. Inference: Missed the start last start at Pakenham and got back on the Synthetic which isn’t normally ideal. Gave the leaders a big gap and even after having to be pulled to the outside and laying in twice in running still won very well. Issues on this track today though with his greeness but looks a type to clearly appreciate a strong final 600m.
7. Mandalay Bay: Got his maiden first up and looked a different horse second up when bolted in beating a bunch of BM-64 graders. Clearly has ability.
8. Kaching: Blinkers on. Simply too far back last start at Caulfield when was slowly away and that cost him any chance. Finished off like a genuinely impressive horse that day.. but based on two back, his very best is when not busted along so far out and allowed to stride into the race without the whip until it’s needed.
9. Back to the Bowler: Blinkers on. Maiden winner. Hasn’t looked a threat the past three runs at this level and i’m happy to take him on.
10. Land of Plenty: Maiden winner. Last start every chance on speed over the 1600m but simply not good enough. Needs to improve.
11. The Rich Fisher: Heavy track maiden winner. Awkward gate and big test. Not for mine.
Comments: A very competitive race on form lines. Detective, Hey Doc and Tessera all look to get positions out the front while Inference and Kaching can be expected to be closer to the back from their barriers. I have to go with the speed mapped horses today in comparison to those needing a run from the back. Hey Doc is the class factor while Detective will be the one to get past with 200m to go.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 2, 3, 6, 8
Strategy: Back Hey Doc & Detective.
Moonee Valley Race 6 – 1600m – Stocks Stakes
1. Rising Romance: Blinkers on. The ‘class’ horse of the field in terms of ratings. Goes well over this distance and has been competing in WFA-G1 grade the past two preps. Hasn’t scored a win since 2015 over in New Zealand. Maps perfectly from the barrier and will be suited today one would imagine. Huge query over first run at the valley.
2. Miss Rose de Lago: Ignore last start when jumped slowly and the race was all over and done from there. WFA-G2 winner two runs back and well back in class here. Peak run last prep was at course and distance in similar grade with this weight. Jump well, put speed on and break their hearts. D Oliver keeps the ride and she has been training very well by all accounts.
3. Jessy Belle: Every chance last start at Flemington when ran home okay off the slowish tempo set out front for a 4th. Hasn’t won since the middle of 2015 and would need to improve onwards from the last two starts to be a factor in the finish here.
4. Iggimacool: Two runs since a freshen up and has failed to fire on either occasion. Up to 1600m where she has won this prep and a track that should suit to an extent. A win wouldn’t shock up to the 1600m.
6. Clemency: Blinkers on. Never really a chance last start ridden an absolute nothing ride at Caulfield. Back to 1600m but well up in grade is a big concern. Has to improve again.
7. Kaniana: Last start pushed back to almost last and then let the winner go around her… was a very much forgive ride. Looked a very handy type two back at Caulfield. Awkward barrier today and Rawiller back aboard. Need to be top class at weights.
8. Baby Don’t Cry: Nice enouhg run from on speed last start when 3rd behind Dulverton. Previous two runs went close also. Huge jump in class.
10. Don’t Doubt Mamma: Given the win last start at Flemington in a race run to suit her sit and sprint strengths. Will get back from the barrier today i’d imagine. Will need to be very good to have the turn of foot required today.
11. C’est Beau La Vie: Very nice run first up 2nd to Heza Rippa and was never a chance last start at Flemington due to the tempo set. Up to 1600m clearly suits better and has to be considered.
Comments: Miss Rose de Lago will be the leader today and will be setting a very strong tempo. It will take a very good type to keep up with her and run her down on this track at equal weights. Only four horses like to have any possible chance to do that and even then, there really only looks the one main threat.
Confidence 90%
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 2, 4, 10, 11
Strategy: Miss Rose de Lago – 2.5 units Each-Way @ $5.50/$1.80
Moonee Valley Race 7 – 1000m – Moir Stakes
1. Buffering: 1000m is CLEARLY this jugganaut’s best distance range. I was privileged to see him conquer the world in Dubai live early this year and he was simply stunning. By all reports he is working the house down heading into this and there will be no excuses today. From barrier 6 he should be crossing to lead or sit outside of Redzel and be very hard to get past.
2. Chautauqua: The Thunder from Down Under. Has won his last four first up runs and is 3 from 3 over this distance. Even so, I think he is actually at his most vulnerable today over the 1000m at this track. Won 6 of his last 8 races the last two preps and handles all conditions. From barrier 5 will be going back and circling the field when it matters. Race will be run to suit. Hard to hold out.
3. Lucky Hussler: Trialled very well heading into this today. Genuine Group 1 horse and Rawiller gets the ride today thankfully over Bossy. The only issue clearly is the distance today where he really is untested. Don’t dismiss him at all from the barrier.
4. Ball of Muscle: Every chance last start at Randwick over the 1100m and just got claimed late. Probably very best suited over the 1000m when you consider his form lines but won’t get a lead with ease today which is a massive negative for him. Last time he bet Buffering he was beaten fairly here.
5. Redzel: Nice enough Group 3 win last start at Caulfield but this is a massive step up in class for mine. Even from the barrier I can’t suggest him.
6. Wild Rain: Continues to win and continues to be under rated by the market. Her hardest task ever today and while she is going very well, i can’t see the win.
7. Heatherly: Never a chance last start at Moonee Valley when missed the start. Awkward barrier again today a big issue and may simply struggle up to this top level even on the first two runs.
8. Chloe in Paris: A long time between runs and D Oliver takes the ride. Hard to see it.
9. Extreme Choice: Certainly proved to be a very good 1000m horse last prep but he won’t be leading or on speed today from the barrier and even with the weight change I can’t see him out sprinting the big grey.
Comments: I clearly want to be involved in this market and want to be backing both Chautauqua and Buffering.
Confidence 95%
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 2, 3
Strategy: Back Chautauqua for 5.25 units @ $2.30. Back Buffering for 1.75 units @ $7.00.
Moonee Valley Race 8 – 1200m – William Hill Handicap
2. Taddei Tondo: Will get back in the run as always. Hasn’t won in a very long time and hasn’t placed the past four runs. Well back in class today and in this class five runs back did place at Rosehill. Has won at track previously. Obviously needs to improve on past runs.
3. Heza Ripper: Won four of his last five being very well placed by the stable. Barrier 1 will see him push forward and just continue to roll all the way to the line. 2kg claim of Dunn’s is critical today and never a disadvantage on a leader.
4. Sir Bacchus: Stable very confident if he jumps well and settles will be very hard to beat. Goes back from the barrier today and has won 4 of last 5 runs at this distance. Never won in this class so it’s a big step up in class… but clearly has the ability.
5. Handsome Tycoon: Very disappointing run first up coming off some very handy runs up north. Won his previous 6 runs. One more chance today.
6. Magnus Reign: Had his chances last start at Morphetville fairly beaten by Heza Ripper. Hasn’t won in nearly two years is a big issue but does always seem to run well at this track. Nice enough barrier today to run well.
7. Sebring Sun: Disappointing run last start at Caulfield over the 1400m when wide throughout. Previous two runs over 1200m at this track were very good and he looks well suited here again today.
8. Fast Cash: Hard to understand the last start run when ran poorly in harder company. Two back run was very very good at course and distance from the back. Can win.
9. Nicoscene: Every chance behind Heza Ripper and simply not good enough. One I want to take on from the barrier.
10. Just Magical: Big win two back at course and distance. Well beaten last start from on speed at Flemington over 1400m. Back to this distance is more ideal but horrible barrier and questions over the form.
11. Real Time: First up today at a distance that should suit. Always looked a handy type last year but is a year between runs which is an issue. Barrier doesn’t help chances… good enough if at best.
12. Streetwise Savoire: Tassy runner. Decent enough runs over the 1200-1400m range. Big step up first time in Vic.
13. Mandla: Went close behind Flamberge first up last prep but then failed the next three runs. Hasn’t won since 2014. Good barrier.
Comments: Hardest race of the day by a mile and i’m not at all thinking we need to be betting into this. Quaddie leg but really just want to be watching.
Confidence 50%
Quaddie Leg Four: 3, 4, 5, 7, 8, 11
Strategy: Heza Ripper E/W
