Welcome to The Profits preview for Pakenham and Ascot on 3 December 2016. Moonee Valley didn’t go to plan last night with two average runs and one average ride to keep us looking for some better results overall today. The card at Pakenham isn’t terrible and there is a nice feature race over in Ascot. Overall i’ve been able to find some solid bets today and i’m confident of a positive day on the cards. We are off to Sale on Sunday with Time to Sail in the 2200m race and i’ll be very happy to have a small bet at the $21 they are giving us currently for her. As always I hope your form matches up with mine. Good luck and happy punting.
Best Bet
Pakenham Race 2 – Gallant Harmony – 4 units @ $3.20 to win
Next Best Bet
Pakenham Race 6 – Mihany 2.5 units @ $2.50 to win
Best Value Bet
Pakenham Race 4 – Feelin The Love – 0.75 units Each-Way @ $21/$6
Pakenham Quaddie
Leg One: 2, 5
Leg Two: 1, 2, 4, 6, 7, 10
Leg Three: 1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 8, 9
Leg Four: 3, 5, 8, 9, 14
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use for the basics – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Our results are updated daily here – Betting Spreadsheet
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Pakenham Race 1 – 1000m – O’Connor Handicap
1. Wise Hero: Sensational win last start at Moonee Valley and the step back to 1000m is an advantage with his strong final 600m. Clear favourite for a key reason. On speed. Hard to get past.
2. Liberty Song: Very strong finishing sectionals two back at Flemington and then ran nicely ridden upside down last start at Ballarat 4th behind Speedeor. Back in class here and looks well suited.
3. Hay Bale: Maiden winner last prep. 2YO placed over 1000m. Never placed on good tracks and found his best on wetter.
4. Invincible Al: Maiden winner last prep. Horrible first up but ran a little better second up… back to 1300m though today a bit strange… needs further for his very best?
6. Cresta Cosmic: First run today after a solid trial over 990m heading into this today. Clearly has to be a very good type to even run a place here… couldn’t see the win though.
7. Segovia: Nice enough maiden win at Pakenham but this is a big step up in grade. Has to clearly find lengths.
8. Divertente: Two wins in a row in much easier races than this one. Solid enough times last start though. Has to be respected.
Comments: Only two chances on my ratings in Wise Hero and Liberty Song. Hard to bet here at the prices. Wise Hero clearly the one to beat.
Confidence 60%
Strategy: Wise Hero to win.
Pakenham Race 2 – 1200m – Sportsbet Racing Form Handicap
1. The Bowler: Terrible first up over the unsuitable 1000m. Looking for further and can’t suggest even a place here over the distance.
2. It is Written: Hasn’t won in nearly two years but always seems to run a nice race… that being said was 7/7 last start beaten 6.5L behind Gallant Harmony and similar weights today. Clearly has to improve.
3. Gallant Harmony: Smart win last start at Ballarat on a leader bias track when went to the lead and was never getting run down. Can continue on with it here today especially with 52kg.
4. Exclusive Lass: Ran really well first up on the soft track at Caulfield but failed to fire any of the last three runs. Really feel she is wanting a softer track than she has found recently (which this will be). Certainly has ability but has to improve on last few runs to be a contender.
5. Smart Dart: A very smart type but fairly beaten last start 2.1L behind Gallant Harmony. Back to a track he runs well at. Have to respect his chances.
6. Nordic Empire: On his best runs in the past he is clearly a horse well in here today, but on the three runs leading in he has shown nothing and even the trainer has talked him down here. In to be sold on the 9th by the owners at the sales!
7. Bob of the Head:Four runs heading in this prep and only win was in a much easier grade. Has solid enough form lines but clearly has to improve to be a chance here.
Comments: Two clear standouts on my ratings in Gallant Harmony and Smart Dart at the weights and on mapping. Gallant Harmony looks the one to be on here at the weights and will be hard to run down with the rail expected to be much better today.
Confidence 90%
Strategy: Gallant Harmony – 4 units @ $3.20 to win
Pakenham Race 3 – 1000m – Viatek Handicap
1. Big Reel: Sprinting type. In similar grade last start over the 955m at Moonee Valley won quite well. Previous prep best run 4.5L win with 62kg at Geelong was stunning also… his best is very good and is hard to get past. On speed and claim helps.
2. I’m ABlaze: Goes okay first up and has won at this track previously. Best runs in the past have been over further with his last win at Caulfield over 1400m. Go forward from the barrier you would imagine… needs the run over the distance.
3. Angry Gee: Goes around close to favourite at almost every start being well placed. Goes well first up and over 1000m. Clearly the hardest race he has ever been in and will need to be rock hard fit here.
4. Danger Close: Hasn’t won since 2014. Didn’t place from 8 runs last prep and hadn’t placed the previous 6 runs before that. Hard to suggest.
5. Spirit or Lager: 1200m winner first up last prep in similar grade. Goes well enough over sprints but better over the 1200m… still has to be considered.
6. A Private Party: Ran very well first up 2nd to Miss Vista before a nice enough 4th behind Deja Blue at Sandown. Well up in class a big concern.
8. Tykiato: Nice type of horse that won very well first up in easier grade… stays at the 1000m and continues to put in solid efforts. Barrier not great, but obviously has to improve onwards again.
9. Stingray: Hasn’t won in about 16 months. Goes okay enough over the 1000m but best has probably been over slightly further on recent form. Last win was over 1300m. Hard to suggest first up.
10. Miss Gidget: Looked a nice type early in her career but hasn’t measured up to the grade going into her 3/4YO years. BM-70 winner last prep over 1000m at Geelong but didn’t beat too much that day either. Up against it here first up but will run a fair race. Place chance.
11. Abohar: First up today. Last prep ran very well on wet tracks. 6 runs 0 places on dry but still goes ‘okay’. Hard to have over this distance on track.
13. Tango Rock: Hard horse to catch. Two wins in the past both over much further in distance. Goes well on wet or dry but is certainly a 1400m horse. Not for mine at this distance from barrier.
14. Dream Food: First up after an average last prep. Did run okay enough in some easier races and 3YO fillies grade. Win wouldn’t be a total shock if at her best but I couldn’t have her here.
Comments: With Royal Spinner scratched here, the field opens up significantly. I’d have to lean to Big Reel – but the horse is certainly not consistent.
Confidence 50%
Strategy: Big Reel E/W
Pakenham Race 4 – 1400m – Momentum Gaming
1. Take Pride: Ran very well first up before failing to really show us too much the next three starts. Was not bad last start on the biased Ballarat track but fairly beaten even so. Back in class further today and tough task with 62kg.
2. Mossbeat: Won in harder grade than this first up at Cranbourne. Maps awkwardly from the wide barrier the only negative. On her day she is more than good enough to put this field away.
3. Feelin The Love: A few starts this prep after coming over to Australia. Close 2nds the last two starts over in Adelaide and looks well suited here today back in class. Will be on speed and will run well.
4. Az Given: Two starts this prep and beaten significantly both times. Stays at 1400m and wants a wetter track to find her best. Not today.
5. Cheeky Babe: Nice enough type of horse that has been first or second all runs this prep. Step up to 1400m a clear positive… has to improve on that last start run and this is much harder today.
6. Violent Snow: Ignore the horse went around last start at Flemington and race on previous win at Moonee Valley where was quite good. Similar grade of race today and looks well in. Bad barrier though.
8. Diamond Baroness: Well backed last start at Ballarat and was horrible well beaten very early in the straight. Better than that, but hard to suggest here on the short backup off that run.
9. Maternal: Godolphin runner. Been running well the past three starts and always close to the win if just missing. Maps better today than last start. Have to consider.
12. Mai Thai: Nice win on a soft track last start in slightly easier grade at Sandown. Looks well suited here today but has never won on a Good track is a concern.
14. Fille Champagne: Big win at Pakenham last start by 3.3L in much easier grade. Goes well at the distance and at the track. Only negative is the barrier.
15. Taylah’s Secret: BM-64 grade winner in only fair time in a 6 horse race. Well beaten the previous 8 runs. Hard to suggest the step up again here.
Comments: Another wide open race with several difference chances. Maternal looks well suited from midfield while Violent Snow could run well at odds as could Mossbeat. The one that stands out for me today going forward is Feelin the Love – she looks a very nice price here today and finds her very best runs into preps. Was beaten fairly last start by a group placed horse and is on the up.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Feelin The Love – 0.75 units Each-Way @ $21/$6
Pakenham Race 5 – 1400m – Wise Choice Catering Handicap
1. Urban Ruler: Horrible last start at Ballarat as $2.80 favourite when beaten 9 lengths on a Good track. Previous three solid runs had all been on soft tracks which may have been the difference? Gets another chance today back in class at similar weights. Maps nicely.
3. Fuse: Very strong maiden win last start at Kilmore and looks a nice type going forward. Up to 1400m ideal and looks well rated here. Rate him.
4. Gratwick: Maiden win on heavy four runs back and failed to score since. Was a nice run 3rd from on speed… has to improve.
5. Green Patina: Two wins in a row… good win last start from off the speed on a track with a bias like that at Ballarat. Gets in well here.
6. Snitzson: Maiden winner heading into this over 1300m. No issues with distance but query over his quality to beat all these.
7. Ballet Master: On speed runners. Fairly beaten in easier last start. Has to improve.
8. La Volt: Well beaten in easier grade last start. Hard to see the step up in grade helping.
11. Rock ‘n’ rollrock: First up run well beaten 3.2L behind Royal Ace at Sandown. A horse with ability, he has to improve here. Wouldn’t shock though to see a good run.
12. Nine Clouds: Maiden winner last start over 1400m… 3 length victory. Much harder here.
13. Atlantic Express: Finally got a maiden win last start. Hard to have him here.
14. Madam Mouton: Good type and ran home well last start at Sandown 2nd behind Royal Ace. Up in class and grade and poor barrier a negative but has ability.
Comments: The run of Green Patina was very good last start and I don’t see a reason for betting around her today either from a nice enough barrier. Looks well suited.
Confidence 65%
Strategy: Green Patina E/W
Pakenham Race 6 – 1600m – Schweppes David Bourke Memorial Handicap
1. Kenjorwood: Two runs this prep have both been rubbish in comparison to his very best in the past. That being said, last run was blocked for runs and pulled up lame. Never back a horse coming back off a lameness this short between runs.
2. Mihany: Very good win two back at Flemington. Last start they simply went too fast early and that got him. He wants a easier first 600m which he gets today and will be hard to get past that final 400m.
3. Goldstream: Group 2 winner over in Italy. Best over further from past runs. Shown nothing the past two preps.
5. Petrology: Only average last start at Kilmore. Two back at Flemington ran very well but this is a hard horse to catch and he doesn’t put in his runs every race. Others preferred.
6. Loophole: Waller runner. First up (never won from 8 attempts) over a distance short of his very best. Hard to have.
7. Doctor Care: Never won first or seconds up in the past and was horrible last start over the 1400m. Best over 2000m.
9. Scelto: Hasn’t gone close this prep in easier grades. Take on.
Comments: Mihany is the clear top pick here on my ratings. I can’t see any of these beating him. Of those that potentially could, Petrology is the value of the race.
Confidence 85%
Quaddie Leg One: 2, 5
Strategy: Mihany 2.5 units @ $2.50 to win
Pakenham Race 7 – 2500m – Superior Food Services Pakenham Cup
1. Puccini: Ran home really well all things considered in the Ballarat Cup 4th to Piolte D’Essai from off the speed on a day when that wasn’t suited. Up in distance will be a positive and he will continue to go on with it here. Good barrier.
2. Pilote D’essai: Assume they will continue with him on speed today after that Ballarat Cup win from on speed. Penalised at the weights today and enters even more unknown territory first run at 2500m. Looks under the odds for mine.
4. Desert Jeuney: Another that ran on well last start in the Ballarat Cup when never exactly suited by the bias of the race. Never really measured up over this distance in the past is an issue.. but he can run well here.
5. Lord Van Percy: Disappointing from the back last start at Ballarat… wasn’t great honestly and others were better that come in here better weighted. Has to show us something else today.
6. Swacadelic: Unlucky not to take out the Sandown Cup last start only just beaten by Qewy when held up for runs at critical stages top of the straight. Back to 2500m no issue for him.. rock hard fit… but he does want the speed on.
7. Little White Cloud: Off the speed and wide all the race last start yet still ran on super honestly. Every chance they push forward today and push the tempo.. looks a grinder and suited up in distance again.
8. Cinnamon Carter: Loves a distance race this bloke. Yes he handles 2500m and is a good horse, but 3000m back to 2500m not ideal when well up in class.
9. Crafty Cruiser: Hasn’t gone close to a win in a very long time. Wasn’t too bad last start at Flmeington but that’s where he only wins now a days and has to find lengths.
10. Thunder Teddington: Was quite a good run 5th behind Little White Cloud last start at Flemington. Obviously has to improve up in distance… good German form to back him up over this distance. Win won’t shock.
12. Transfer Allowance: Shown nothing the past two starts in similar hard races. Take on.
13. Arianne: Never gone close over this distance in the past and last few runs just not good enough.
14. Platypus Duck: Couldn’t even place in easier than this, this prep, take on.
Comments: Six main chances on my ratings and the market seems to agree. Not a race i’d be overly confident to bet into at all. I’m not convinced Swacadelic will be as good back to the 2500m, nor Little White Cloud up to the 2500m.. the same for Pilote D’Essai and Dessert Jeuney will get a long way back. Puccini is the one that rates much better today from the barrier who I think is every chance, while Thunder Teddington also looks the one best suited up in distance.
Confidence 60%
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 2, 4, 6, 7, 10
Strategy: Back both Pucini and Thunder Teddington
Pakenham Race 8 – 1400m – Racing.com VOBIS Gold Bullion
1. Burning Front: Two lead in runs were horrid… but he has had 1 month between runs and I’d say he has been targeted at this race all along. Terrible barrier should expected to lead from the wide barrier.
2. Rough Justice: Continues to run well without winning. Every chance last start but found one way too good at Flemington. Nicely in here and will run a good race.
3. Dan Zephyr: Strong 1300m win at Ararat last start. A week between runs after failing at Moonee Valley over 1000m last start. Short backup… not ideal for mine especially from barrier.. but does have the ability.
4. Warrior of Fire: Looks to be wanting further than this on best past runs. One to take on.
5. Lucky Liberty: Nice enough run 2nd behind Lord Aspen and Rough Justice at Flemington. Similar weights today to Rough Justice. Maps to get far back in run.
6. Hard Call: Ran home well last start at Moonee Valley behind Kings Command. A week between runs and up to 1400m… goes well over distance and 2nd up… respect him.
7. Grande Rosso: Consistent horse in the fact that he never really runs a bad race. Goes well at the distance and goes well in the BM-70-90 grade. Step up in class here.
8. Septamore: Every possible chance on speed last start run down late by Dubio.. previous run beaten by Dan Zephyr also. Needs a better run today. Has the ability.
9. Schneller: Two wins in a row heading into last start over the 1200m at Ballarat when a very respectable third behind Gallant Harmony. Go well here but will need a good ride from the awkward gate.
10. Glenrowan Prince: Bm-70 winner two back at Bendigo but fairly taken care of at ballarat behind Duibio. Has to find 2-3 lengths.
11. Gregington: Three runs this prep and hasn’t gone close to a win the past two starts. Back to a dryer track should help but even so it’s hard to see the required improvement to best all of these runners.
13. Marthick: Couldn’t win a BM-58 last start.
14. Castelo: Four runs this prep… last three failed to place in easier grade. Struggle to suggest.
15. Rewarding Effort: Every chance to win last two starts in BM-70 grade and lost 0.1L… cat and hard to see in this grade.
Comments: Another wide open race. I think the two value runners with the form on the board are Burning Front and Rough Justice… but a win from Dan Zephyr, Lucky Liberty, Hard Call or Septamore wouldn’t shock one bit.
Confidence 60%
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 8, 9
Strategy: Back both Burning Front and Rough Justice.
Pakenham Race 9 – 2000m – Stabil-Lime Group Handicap
1. Sir Laszlo: Finally finds a distance that is suitable today third up into the prep… yes he needs further but 2000m is in his distance range to finally win. Well in back in class with the claim.
2. Patch Adams: Two good enough runs and then failed to get a run last start at Moonee Valley. Clearly has ability to run well again here but never won at distance a concern.
3. Goathland: Ignore his only run to date as we know he is much better than that. Up to 2000m certainly will help him here… needs further but back in grade and a huge price… he is worth a small bet.
4. Prima: 1800m and 2040m winner this prep in easier grades. Not the worst run last start in similar grade over 1800m. Push forward from barrier but won’t have an easy time of it.
5. Palmera Lad: Massive 4.8L win last start over King of England. beaten previous start by Prima. Clearly has ability.
6. Tears of Joy: Blocked for runs and then just simply poor last start in similar grade at Ballarat. Previous runs were quite good all things considered over the 200m distance.
8. Gallic Chieftain: Import for the stable two starts into this prep. Fairly beaten last start but will improve for the run. Looks a nice type.
9. Get The Picture: Good win last start at Moonee Valley in easier grade. Can progress onwards with it here.
10. Use The Lot: Big 2nd last start at Traralgon in ‘harder’ grade but I didn’t rate many horses there. Has to go on with it.
12. Delightful Son: Been up forever this prep but going nicely. Slightly back in distance off a big fail at Ballarat. Previous run at Geelong was nice.
13. Extra Choice: Doesn’t win often this bloke. hasn’t won in two preps. Lame last start a big concern coming back so soon here.
14. Hardern: Blocked for runs last start at Moonee Valley and was just a forgive run. Best runs in the past have been group level so he looks well in here from a good barrier.
15. But It’s True: Beaten favourite the past two starts. Up in grade here… can run well but hard to suggest straight up to 2000m.
16. Tuff Bickie: Couldn’t win CL1s.
17. Quedoutes: Can run okay but happy to take him on here.
Comments: Tough race to finish the day. Several chances here.
Confidence 60%
Quaddie Leg Four: 3, 5, 8, 9, 14
Strategy: Back Hardern and Goathland.
Ascot Race 8 – 1800m – Peters Investments – Kingston Town Classic
2. Ihtsahymn: Comes into this with different form lines to most coming through the Northam Cup where he was well beaten 3rd. Concussion plates first time and hasn’t won from 4 starts this prep between 1300 and 2100m in distance. Hard to suggest a win here.
3. Stratum Star: Not a lot of confidence for him coming out of the stables of late and Un de Sceaux hasn’t exactly franked the form of the Sandown run either. Yes, last start was his best run for a very long time, but he is still lengths below the best here on my numbers.
4. Kawi: Finds himself very well weighted today against many others going around only having to rise 0.5kg in the weights. Trainer has said this was the key race all along with the 1800m and WFA scales. Group 1 winner. Maps exceptionally today from barrier 4.
5. Disposition: Disappointing 11th last start in the Railway Stakes and fairly beaten the run before by Perfect Reflection over 1400m. Has to improve and find his best to win here today… blinkers may just do the trick?
6. He or She: Honestly disappointing in the Railway when really did have every chance from the spot in running and failed to really finish off with any gusto. Up in weight today and I just can’t be on him here.
7. Dubai Escapeade: Well beaten in his two lead in runs. Never measured up to this class apart from over 3200m+. Not here.
8. Bass Strait: Strong run behind Scales of Justice two back over 1500m and then last start over 1400m ran very well only beaten by a nice horse in Chocolate Holic after being held up a little to long behind the leaders when coming into the straight. Never placed over this distance but I really think he is going better than every before. Awkward Barrier.
9. Tradesman: Nice run two back behind Perfect Reflection and Disposition but last start in the Railway Stakes he was fairly beaten into 5th on the day. Poorly weighted here compared to a few others. Has to improve lengths.
10. Scales of Justice: Strong start to finish win in the Railway Stakes weighted to win. Up 5.5kg today and certainly gets into this poorly at the weights against a few others… that being said, he will still be on speed and be running a very good race and hard to get past even with the weight. Expect them to keep laying his price out and he will be more than backable on the day.
11. Vanbrugh: Fairly beaten in the Mackinnon in what was a very strongly run race. Back to 1800m today and did win previous start over 2000m beating some nice types including Tom Melbourne and It’s Somewhat. Finds himself well in here in all reality and from barrier 7 maps well. Brings a different form line and does look a nice blowout chance. Should be shorter than Stratum Star in betting.
12. Mackintosh: Very disappointing run last start in the Railway when had every possible chance and was just simply poor. Has better to show but another step up in distance today and up 4.5kg.. others are better foudn in the race. Might lead today.
13. Heart Starter: Just off the speed last start with a low weight and ran on okay to finish 7th. Fairly beaten though and jumps up in weights big time. Hard to have.
14. Neverland: Well beaten the last two starts in similar company. Poorly weighted and looks well outclassed.
15. Tick Tick Bloom: Disappointing run last start in the Railway. Bad barrier again and hard to see the required improvement.
16. Perfect Reflection: Group 2 winner two back beating a few handy ones including Disposition. Best runs in the past have always been over the longer distances including winning this race last year with 50kg. Well up this year and up 2kg on the last start 3rd behind Scales of Justice. Barrier isn’t exactly ideal for mine and will certainly need some luck in running. One of the clear top chances.
Comments: Kawi is obviously one of the best weighted horses in the race today stepping up to WFA company. Vanbrugh also gets in quite well with Victorian form backing up the horses claims here. Of the proven favourites, Perfect Reflection also finds herself in with a good chance at the weights and you certainly can’t dismiss Scales of Justice just because of the big weight gain. Overall this looks a tough betting race but at the prices (i’m expecting it to continue drifting) I feel Scales of Justice is the key horse to play while Vanbrugh is certainly the value of the race.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Back both Scales of Justice and Vanbrugh.
