Welcome to The Profits form guide for Randwick and Caulfield on the 3 October 2015. Moonee Valley was a bit of a disaster last night with our Best E/W missing a place by 1 spot and our Best Bet two-horse play running 2nd and 3rd. Combined with the ride given to The United States, we just didn’t have much go our way. All you can do is learn from what occured and try and improve and hopefully we are on the money today. The card at Caulfield is a nightmare, but we have done our best to try and pluck two or three races where we think we have found the right odds to play. Randwick looks a bit easier with some good short priced favourites expected to get up and some value in the main races. As always, you can check out my trackwalking thoughts on Twitter – the track at Caulfield will play fair early with swooopers favoured later in the day. As always, i hope your form matches up with mine. Good luck and happy punting.
Sydney Best Bet
Randwick Race 5 – Terravista to win
Class horse and word is the horse is flying. Happy with my mail on the horse against this lot. Pretty confident only Rebel Dane is the threat in this race. Very happy to take the odds quoted.
Melbourne Best Bet
Caulfield Race 7 – Sistonic to win
Very good horse that has suffered a few troubles the past two races with breathing and then lameness issues. Well back in class and if all goes right today, will most likely blow this field away on everything we know about this horse. Barrier my only concern. Price is more than right.
Sydney Next Best Bet
Randwick Race 7 – Entirely Platinum Each-Way
Huge odds today for this class horse that has run close to Boban, Fawkner, Rising Romance and Stratum Star the last two starts in super hard company. Will be pushing forward from out wide and i can’t see them setting an overly fast tempo with Winx in the race, they would be stupid to do so. Should have every possible and rates single figures not double figures.
Melbourne Next Best Bet
Caulfield Race 8 – Irada on the Each-Way
Weighted to win today. They will be swooping late and that will suit this talented horse well back in class today. Barrier only issue but a smart ride wins it.
Melbourne Best Value
Caulfield Race 4 – Mister Milton on the Each-Way
Probably the hardest horse for anyone to follow, he hasn’t won in a long time… but his last start run was HUGE when blocked for runs behind some very talented horses… could argue that he should have finished alongside Disposition who would be a $1.20 shot here today. Just have to take the double figure odds and hope the same horse turns up.
Melbourne Quaddie
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 2, 3, 4, 11
Quaddie Leg Two: 3, 4, 5, 7, 8, 10
Quaddie Leg Three: 4, 5, 7, 11
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 5, 9, 11, 14
Sydney Quaddie
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 3, 4
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 2, 3, 4, 6
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 2, 4, 5, 6
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 4, 7, 8, 13
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Randwick Race 5 – 1200m – Premiere Stakes
1. Terravista: Strong first up record and won 4 from 6 runs over this distance in the past. Obviously well weighted under WFA conditions and is rock hard fit coming into this today. No reason why he can’t win.
2. Rebel Dane: Impressive win first up in Group 2 company running down Ball of Muscle on the post. The run had a lot of merit but he does have to improve again today to win this.
3. Tiger Tees: Two horrible runs last prep… hard to believe he will come back and produce that… but i can’t have him first up here against this group.
4. Famous Seamus: First up run was good when out the back and ridden on the inside instead of going wide… but couldn’t finish off late. Step back to 1200m should suit and can be saved for the final 300m today. Don’t be surprised to see him improve again and be a contender.
5. Hot Snitzel: Ran about as expected first up, he was a nice run but well beaten on the day. Will improve 2nd up but feel he is better later into his runs and this looks a tough task.
6. Generalife: Measured up to Group 3 company last prep first up with a win then ran well in WFA-G1 behind Dissident, Boban and Srikandi types. Back to 1200m first up… better over further is the thought.
7. Rock Sturdy: Decent horse but as we saw first up he is just a class grade too far out of his depth coming into this one. Could place.
8. That’s A Good Idea: Measured up around Ball of Muscle and Target in Sight last prep with good sprints. Have to find 2 lengths to beat these home today though is the concern.
Comments: When all is said and done, Terravista is the horse to beat here and the $2.20+ being bet is more than respectable. Very happy to take this and quite confident. Rebel Dane the only threat for mine and prices suggest that.
Confidence 85%
Strategy: Terravista to win.
Randwick Race 6 – 2000m – Craven Plate
1. Complacent: Clear leader on mapping today. Huge win two back at Randwick. Back to dryer track today but I believe no issues with that at all. Have to simply believe this horse continues winning considering the class in this race today.
2. Moriarty: Every chance all three runs this prep. Looked better back in class last start but couldn’t see it off these runs.
3. Gallante: Had his chances last start over the 2000m but well beaten 10th. Hard to have on that run.
4. Grand Marshal: Flew home last start and looks to be going well. Back to dryer suits fine. Has the ability to run well.
5. Foreteller: Hard to have on all three runs this prep. Needs another run or two.
6. I’m Imposing: Going well right now and up to best distance…. hasn’t measured up in this grade though.
7. Sense of Occasion: Looked to have every chance 2nd up at Newcastle well beaten in easier. Up to this distance today much better suited, but has to improve to place.
8. Celtic Prince: Went close in a Group 3 last prep over 2000m. First two runs this prep found nothing last both times.
9. Hauraki: Failed to measure up either run this prep. Up to the distance range he needs but has to improve.
10. Ruling Dynasty: Good win in much easier grade last start. Much harder.
Comments: All signs point to Complacent. Top quality horse and rates so well today against this group of horses.
Confidence 75%
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 3, 4
Strategy: Complacent to win.
Randwick Race 7 – 1600m – Epsom
1. Hooked: Will get a sit just off the pace today if not leading. Ignore last start and rate on first up run. No reason to push the pace like first up run.
2. Lucia Valentina: Two solid runs to start the prep. Prefer it wetter than this today. Best would measure up, but will certainly be out the back today.
3. Entirely Platinum: Looks the value of the race. Last two starts runs have been huge and stays at 1600m 3rd up fit. Ran 2nd to Boban and beat Stratum Star two back. Then last start just beaten by Fawkner. Wide barrier will push forward and be the leader. Won’t be running it hard out front, will have every possible chance.
4. Winx: She is a freak. Will be out the back again today, going wise at turn and flying home. Clearly can win.
5. Messene: Disappointing last two starts and while better last start really needed to win to be going well here.
6. Rudy: Disappointed for mine last three runs not getting a win. Hardest test to date, maps well but has to find 2 lengths to win this back on dryer.
7. Silverball: Very nice win last start at Rosehill. Will be midfield to back from barrier. Has ability.
8. Ecuador: Gai Waterhouse runner going forward again today. Two races this prep and gone well in both but failed to get a win. Hardest test to date.
9. Kirramosa: She is going very well but clearly looking for further. Won’t get it here. Out the back.
10. Sweynesse: Two runs and both very average/poor. Happy to take on.
11. Sadler’s Lake: Good win last start beating Ruby but this is much harder. Measured up in past at this distance.
12. Sons of John: Flew home last start at Rosehill and just missed. Could be a big improver up to 1600m.
13. Malice: Two runs this prep and had his chances both times and not been able to place> has to find much more to get a place today.
14. Teronado: Many good judges suggesting he is the value. Last start run was poor, but two back in Open grade was good enough to feature here.
15. Pressing: Hard to have him at the weights even off the two good runs.
Comments: Compressed weight scale today with just 2kg between them for 25 points of rating. All signs point to Entirely Platinum for me. Saver Winx if scared.
Confidence 80%
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 2, 3, 4, 6
Strategy: Entirely Platinum E/W
Randwick Race 8 – 1600m – Coolmore Flight Stakes
1. Speak Fondly: Multiple Group 2 winner at age group. Last start respectable 2nd to Exosphere and beat home Press Statement. Must be considered at weight scale today. The one to beat.
2. Kimberley Star: Well backed favourite the last two starts and failed to win either run. Metalic Crown came out and failed since. Lost to Speak Fondly three back also. Others appeal more.
3. Perignon: Beaten by Speak Fondly first up this prep then failed next start with thumps and poor post-race recovery. Has ability.
4. Honesta: Huge run from the back last start at Randwick when just missed running down Pearls. Multiple 3YO winner up at Doomben – generally a track favouring front runners, suggests she is going as well as that run looked.
5. Pearls: Bounced back last start up in distance with a much better run than seen previously to surprise and win. Won’t get ground anywhere near as soft today. Much harder today.
6. Flamboyant Lass: Good win first up on Heavy and then a little disappointing finding one too goo last start at Rosehill when had every possible chance. Has to improve onwards again today.
7. Sempre Libera: 1 win from 5 starts and started shorter than $6 the last four runs. Best runs seen on wetter tracks. Stil goes okay on Good. No thanks.
8. Ocean Tempest: Two good runs after winning her maiden but when it’s been time to knuckle down adn win she hasn’t had the ability. Concerning in this grade.
9. Gone to Paris: Came on from well back last start at Rosehill. Minor chance on that run.
10. Sofia Rosa: Disappointing first up run in AUS behind Pearls. Need to improve.
11. Lauren’s Magic: Couldn’t win a maiden.
Comments: I’m a big fan of Speak Fondly and this would be the only way i could bet in the race is to back the horse to win. Confidence is lower than other races due to the price being bet, getting down to rock bottom odds now.
Confidence 75%
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 2, 4, 5, 6
Strategy: Speak Fondly to win.
Randwick Race 9 – 2400m – Metropolitan
1. Beaten Up: Continues to run well and seems to be getting better as the distance increases. Finally back to a firmer track today, stable seems confident from the barrier.
2. Junoob: Looks a minor chance on the first three runs this prep. Back to firmer clearly favoured.
3. Opinion: Found the line well enough and his last win was in this race last year. Enjoys a Good track but not sure his lead in has been ideal to consider a top contender.
4. Beyond Thankful: Very classy win in the Newcastle Cup last month from a position that wasn’t suited to the bias of the day. Previous run very solid also. Keeps on winning and enjoys all surfaces.
5. Bonfire: Clear leader of the race, stuck on strongly out the front for a long way last start and previous prep won a good 2350m race. Never measured up to this class before but last start was the right direction.
7. Almoonqith: Very nice first up run at Moonee Valley but since then has gone backwards a bit. Yes, he ran on nicely enough last start at Caulfield from probably an unwinnable position, but he was still beaten 1.5 lengths by magnapal! Up to 2400m today should be suitable but he will certainly be a long way back. Needs the full straight.
8. Magic Hurricane: Keeps going from strength to strength this prep. Two back won well beating Silverball and made the next step up last start when 0.2L 2nd in WFA-G2 class. Wants the the 2400m today and has a great record over distance.
9. Chance to Dance: Ran fairly last start 8th but well beaten off. Good win two back. Not convinced 2400m is his key distance but should handle it.
10. Orbec: French import that measured up to the top level over there. Three runs to date for 0 wins in Aus a concern even though he has been close each run. Improvement required.
12. Disclaimer: Not going well enough to consider even a place chance today.
13. Maurus: Did a lot wrong last start when slowly away and had to fight for a spot. If jumps with them today can be on speed and much better suited. Has ability.
14. Havana Cooler: Well beaten the last two runs in similar company. Needs to improve to place.
15. Ghost Protocol: Not convinced his racing style and class is enough in this grade.
Comments: I have to side today with Beaten Up on the each-way back to the firmer track. If he is ever going to get a big win, this is it today in this class at these weights. I think Magic Hurricane is the horse to beat and Maurus looks the value.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 4, 7, 8, 13
Strategy: Beaten Up E/W
Caulfield Race 1 – 1200m – Grand Hotel Frankston Handicap
Gear Changes: None
1. Thurlow: Two runs this prep found absolutely nothing. Top weight on ratings and i can’t be on.
2. Mihalic: 2YO-LR winner before disappointing run to finish it off down the Flemington straight after that. Showed ability with the first run and has runs on the board. Respect after almost a year off.
3. Misty Waters: Blocked for runs last start at Caulfield, twice, and still got within 4L of Petitis Filous. 4 length winner over 900m as a 2YO. Will improve on last start run.
4. Magnette: Won two in a row going through the grades. This looks much harder today and dryer track.
5. Miss Idyllic: Class runner of the race, measured up as a 2YO in city class. Got her maiden win first up with ease and was a little disappointing last start off the strong tempo. Will be much better suited today… only speed runner in the race. Should be no disadvantage early in leading.
6. Invincible Heart: Maiden win by a distance on a soft track at Moe then well beaten last start when bucked at start and went back, still ran 3rd – 4 lengths off them. Up in class here. Obviously has some ability.
7. Maddie Moo Moo: Maiden winner over 970m first up. Previously shown ability with runs behind Misty Waters and Pearl Star. Has to improve.
8. In A Smile: Failed to measure up last start at Cranbourne when 2nd in a FMB-64. Big jump in improvement required.
9. Silent Sedition: Couldn’t win a maiden first up… a nice type beat it but still cant’ see it here.
10. Little Indian: Close in last two maidens. Surprised by run today on those runs.
Comments: Two clear standouts today in Miss Idyllic and Misty Waters. Opting for the front runner in Miss Idyllic that will get every possible with no other speed in the race. Have to saver Misty.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Miss Idyllic to win. Saver bet Misty Waters.
Caulfield Race 2 – 1200m – The Cove Hotel Plate
Gear Changes: Sava Nugget – Blinkers First Time
2. Act of Valour: Should take a sit today and not lead like he tried to finish last prep. Coming well back in class, has a good first up record and can handle weight. Tricky barrier the issue.
3. Ducal Castle: Looked a nice type both previous preps but never managed to break through for a top quality win. Ran a 3rd in 3YO-LR. First up at distance and in this class ran 1.5L 6th.
4. Sava Nugget: Three runs this prep in this class and yet to get closer than 1.3L off a win… gone backwards since that run also. Blinkers on.
5. Uncle Tiger: Won 3 of 4 runs this prep but has been competing in the country. Big step up in class here to win this.
6. We’ve Got This: Maiden only winner with a serious record of placing in good races behind strong horses. Barrier 1 should see him get a nice spot and dryer track than previous three runs should suit.
7. Heza Ripper: NZ import that won first up, doesn’t happen often! Stable are confident he is the real deal. I wasn’t blown away by the win at Geelong, but Hayes has put it as his best of the day today and is talking the horse up. Barrier looks tricky.
9. Ruettiger: First up off a long break. measured up to this grade at end of last prep. First up record fine but does need to improve.
11. Mantener La Fe: Disappointing run first up overracing and then getting blocked for runs. Best over further than this last prep but does have a 0.4L 3rd to trust in a Gust on the record. Had been 2 years between runs.
12. Neona: Nice start to finish win at Seymour last start off a fast tempo. Strange win when you consider previous three runs… hard horse to catch it suggests.
13. Good Offa: Not going well enough on first two runs this prep. Did run well in 3YO company last prep though.
Comments: A few runners of interest here out of stronger race form lines. We’ve Got This is the horse with the peaks at this distance in harder company and has to be respected.
Confidence 65%
Strategy: We’ve Got This to win
Caulfield Race 3 – 1800m – Showtime Attractions Handicap
Gear Changes: None
1. Don Doremo: Three runs back this prep and hasn’t been able to measure up to the top level at this distance. Up to 1800m and back to BM-84 grade, have to remember he won last prep in BM-90 grade at Moonee Valley by 4 lengths over 2040m off similar rating runs. Looks the only speed in the race and can control tempo to suit like that MV race.
2. Second Bullet: Found little first up over unsuitable distance. Up to winnable range today, does need further but this should be enough to be contesting. Won at track previously and in harder company.
5. Can’t Refuse: Well beaten last start in harder company and seemed to have every chance from the position. Back up in distance today and down in class… won in similar two back and lesser grade four back. Hard horse to catch.
6. Luck’s A Fortune: Needs further.
7. Red Fella: Very hard horse to catch, did get a win last prep over 2400m and 2500m. Clearly needs further first up from what we saw last prep.
8. High Church: Import for Hickmott stable, looked a good type last start at Pakenham and will appreciate step up to 1800m today. Has ability and looks well weighted.
9. Harveys True Heart: Didn’t find much last start at Pakenham which backs up two previous runs to date this prep. Hard to have.
10. Ring Da Belle: Respectable run last start off bottom weight 5th. Has to improve.
11. Transfer Allowance: Two wins in a row in much easier fields. Hard to have.
Comments: Off the last start run, High Church is the one to beat for mine, but even with the weight, don’t discount Don Doremo who could get away with murder out front.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: High Church to win. Smaller bet Don Doremo
Caulfield Race 4 – 1440m – Art Series Hotel Group Plate
Gear Changes: None
1. Mister Milton: Very good run last start at Flemington. Was blocked for runs when he was flying.. i tell you what… if he repeats that today, he could bolt in.
2. Real Time: Disappointing last start at Pakenham well beaten after the first up win. Has the ability obviously.
5. Volontiers: Two wins in a row and is a very consistent type this prep. Ran a 0.8L 2nd in 3YO class also. Have to consider.
6. Epic Saga: Found little first up. Looking for further than this.
7. Kayjay’s Joy: Not a load of speed on last start at Caulfield and she benefited with a front running ride on the bias to run down Danestroem. Similar class today.
8. Sir Berus: Three runs this prep in similar class and yet to place. Struggle to suggest the improvement.
9. Staviva: Around the mark as a 3YO and first two runs this prep won quite well. Not sure the form out of the first race has measured up is the issue. Can only beat what you beat.
10. Petite Diablesse: Good run from the back behind Kayjay last start and previous run 6th to Madam Gangster was good also. Has a win in the next 2-3 runs that’s for sure.
11. Tashbeeh: Disappointingly didn’t finish over them first up… but Tashbeeh clearly wants further than 1200m. 3YO winner over this distance.
12.Belorum: Hasn’t come back the same horse just yet. Needs another run.
Comments: Tough race with several improvers in it. Tashbeeh is the clear class runner while Mister Milton is the one dropping back from top grade today and is huge odds.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Backing both Tashbeeh and Mister Milton.
Caulfield Race 5 – 1600m – Rent a Fence Plate
Gear Changes: Eyrton – Cross Over Noseband First Time, All I Survey – Ear Muffs/Blindfold/Barrier Blanket First Time, Skellig – Winkers First Time
1. Berisha: Finally got a win after going around as short priced favourite in the past in two races and not getting it. Showed a load of ability and up to 1600m today should suit. Get the feeling the track will give him every chance today with the weight.
2. Darragh: Very strong win last start at Bendigo destroying the field off a hot enough tempo from the gun spot in run. Up to 60kg but comes into this in top form after that first up win. Hard to ignore.
3. Eyrton: French import with just the one win on his record, it was on heavy over this distance. Obviously have to consider but not sure you can justify the favourites badge?
4. Spur on Gold: Good run first up at 1200m. Up to 1600m looks a good jump with form around some very good types. Measured up to higher grade over 2000m especially last prep.
5. All I Survey: Another who measured up over further, needed to get to 1850 to win a maiden is a concern.
6. Prix D’or: Doesn’t win out of turn this guy. Can’t have on last two runs.
7. Skellig: Loves to run a place. Consistent type but struggle to suggest up to this class today on three runs this prep.
8. War Point: Showed he has a lot of class in 2nd prep. Last prep was fair in just one of the three races at this course and distance for 3rd behind Fontein Ruby who would destroy this field. Previous prep close 3rd to Firehouse Rock and Magicool. Has the ability but based on the first up run i’m not sure he is going well enough.
9. Leica Day: Well beaten off last start at Balarat by Berisha. Need to improve.
10. Tre Dieci: Strange horse. Open class 2nd to Ferulgent four runs back then since has shown nothing.
11. Triple Gold: 0.1L 2nd to Magicool on record last prep and won his maiden over 1600m. Has ability and did go a 0.1L 2nd in 2YO-LR over 1600m to Crafty also.
13. The Spitfire: Old mate Spitty, he won two back but failed to get close last start. Looks out of his league currently.
14. Sun Flash: Natural leader, well beaten last start by Darragh and can’t see the tables turning.
Comments: Top 4 in the weights the ones to beat here. Berisha is certainly the horse that has showed the most class coming into this at the distance while Darragh’s last start run was impressive and the price looks very nice today. Feel Spur of Gold from that barrier will flash home but not win.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 2, 3, 4, 11
Strategy: Back Berisha to win. Smaller bet Darragh.
Caulfield Race 6 – 1600m – Champagne Pommery Handicap
Gear Changes: None
1. Savannah Moon: Big win three back at Bendigo well suited by the ground that day. Failed the last two starts in similar grade though an good track again. Top weight and poor barrier.
2. Chloe Anna: Well beaten last start in similar company. Two back run much better but that was on wetter.
3. Amarela: Very nice win two back at Pakenham. Well up in class last start and well beaten off, disappointing flat run. Back to this class can improve and win again. Perfect barrier but needs to sit closer than out the back.
4. Solar Burst: Going well this prep with three seconds a third a win and a non placed run. Back to a Good track is the key with that being the only win this prep 1/1 on the surface. Has to improve here though.
5. Spectacular Vision: 2nd to Delicacy in 3F-GP3 has to be respected but that was over 2400m… had to go to 1990m to get her maiden. First up run over 1600m was fair 4th
6. Choix De Maia: Another best over further. Failed to fire anything first up over 1200m. Has won in the past over 1600m at Moonee Valley which is a fair effort to bring into this race. 3rd in 3F-GP3 class last prep over 1800m also has to be respected. Best runs on wetter tracks the issue.
7. Taylah’s Secret: Last prep won in this class over this distance. First up run over 1200m was an okay run as a lead in but certainly has to improve. Took a long time last prep to get to her best and had a long spell.
8. Chabelle: Nice barrier today coming off a strong first up win at Bendigo beating a decent field. Obviously harder today but based on that run you have to consider a chance.
9. Taspinar: Out the front today. Won her maiden then won again out the front over 1600m on heavy. Back to dryer a concern.
10. Tee ‘n’ Tee: Nice runs this prep leading up to this run today. Best runs in past have been on Good tracks but last two runs on Soft have been fair also. Has been backed.
12. Clemency: Maiden only winner, took three goes to get it also. Hard to see the sudden jump in class to this grade, but obviously well bred horse.
13. Bannatyne: Another in the race that has gone from maiden grade with a just win then up to next class for a win. Has to find much more today on those two wins.
15. Dancing Rose: Improved run last start at Pakenham for 3rd. Continues to go close without winning this prep.
16. Hi Way Downs: Hasn’t placed in a maiden.
Comments: Taking on Clemency and Bannatyne today based on the required progression and going for value in this Quaddie leg. If we lose here, i’m not disappointed as it wouldn’t give us any value to add them. Not overly keen here but Spectacular Vision is our top pick here from Tee ‘N’ Tee.
Confidence 60%
Quaddie Leg Two: 3, 4, 5, 7, 8, 10
Strategy: Back Spectacular Vision & Tee ‘n’ Tee to win.
Caulfield Race 7 – 1000m – Spotlight Handicap
Gear Changes: Secretan – Tongue Tie Off
1. Ilgattino: Proven in higher grade as a contender. First up record is okay. Have to respect but that weight is an issue.
2. Beau Rada: Will be out the back today. Finished off last prep winning two in a row at this distance and won in this grade. Tough race again today.
3. Gold Rory: Looked a good type winning as a 3YO and going well in 3YO company… won in this class also. Expect on speed run.
4. I’m Ablaze: I have a big opinion of this bloke. Very strong win two back at Cranbourne and unlucky last start, done in by the soft track. Drawn the carpark the only thing against him today, looks well in.
5. Liminal: Very nice type with runs on the board. Deserves a top weight today on first two runs this prep. Can win. Awkward barrier.
6. Oncebittentwiceshy: Up and down last prep from R-58 up to 3Yo grade… did win in harder company than this but that was on soft track. Has ability to win.
7. Lonhtime: Got the win over Appalachian Annie first up at Bendigo by a nose. Was a very good ride to get there. Obviously going well and looks suited.
8. Dan Zephyr: 0.8L 4th to Burning Front to finish last prep.. horse won very well last night at MV! Won his maiden over 1000m but finished off last prep over 1400m. Think better over shorter.
9. Glenrowan Prince: Didn’t beat alot to win his BM-64 last start. Has to improve.
10. Secretan: 5th run in this prep after finally getting a win. Has to improve and not very well weighted today.
11. Sistonic: WFA-G2 back down to this grade. Hasn’t won in harder company than this in the past but we know the horse has the ability. Had issues her last two runs that are totally forgiveable and she gets one last shot today for mine at the price.
12. Definia: Not convinced he is good enough to win this first up after what was shown last prep, from this barrier.
13. Little Capri: Beaten in CL3 class in the country as favourite last start a concern compared with others in this race. May need the run to figure out where to place him.
14. Appalachian Annie: Led and had a good time with it but beaten in the end first up. Good horse but needs to find an extra gear late.
Comments: Very happy to give Sistonic another chance today well back in class at the price. Tricky barrier should see a front running ride. I’m Ablaze has talent and is a great bet at double figure odds also.
Confidence 80%
Quaddie Leg Three: 4, 5, 7, 11
Strategy: Sistonic to win. Smaller bet I’m Ablaze
Caulfield Race 8 – 1200m – Bushnell Outdoor Products Handicap
Gear Changes: Sentfromthestars Tongue Tie First Time
1. Sensational Report: The example horse of a hard one to catch. Last win at course over 1400m at huge odds. Almost pulled it off again 3rd run of last prep, when blocked for runs 2nd. Has won first up in past. 58.5kg after claim looks decently in at the class if produces a run.
2. La Venta: Three runs this prep and not gone close. If the money comes pay attention but i couldn’t touch on recent runs.
3. Northern Saint: Good runs this prep and switch back to a Good track could be the trick. Placed in F&M this prep first up remember. Will be out the back.
4. Sentfromthestars: Disappointing 4th last start at Seymour but in reality the leader bias was too hard to beat. 61kg again today from the back.
5. Liten Prinsessa: Measured up well enough over in NZ last prep and three runs in AUS have all been fair finally getting a win last start. This looks a bit harder and dryer track.
6. Miniver: Hard horse to place for the stable. Obviously has a bit of talent winning two in a row but last two runs of prep were disappointing.
9. Zambezi Diamond: City winner at Moonee Valley last prep and ran Sistonic to 0.8L the run before which is fair. First up was going very well when blocked for runs and only finished 1.8L off Liminal. Down in class today, consider.
11. Champagne Cocktail: First up off a short spell. Flew home last start behind Herstory at Flemington in 3YOF grade. Maiden win last prep over 1200m was a lazy 5 lengths. Clearly has ability over all distances around this mark.
12. Our Lotte: Maiden win then won BM-64 well enough last start. Has to improve again to consider… on turf also.
13. Haybah: Disappointing first two runs you have to say considering how well she went last prep. Has to improve back in this class off those two runs.
14. Irada: Untapped potential this horse. 2YO 3rd at Flemington was very good. 1200m looks to suit… will be going back from the 1 which is a negative.
15. Intravenous: BM-64 winner. Last prep couldn’t get the win in this grade that she wanted. Have to improve again, poor barrier.
Comments: Liten Prinsessa looks the unders in the race as favourite. Looks a bit more open. Irada is weighted to win today and is huge odds. Happy to be on E/W
Confidence 75%
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 5, 9, 11, 14
Strategy: Irada E/W
