Welcome to The Profits form guide for Stakes Day at Flemington on the 7 November 2015. Our Oaks day was an absolute nightmare, but it really was no surprise to anyone especially us that the hardest card all year was made even harder when the BOM told us all that 8MM of rain was expected to hit the track and we ended up with 33m. This obviously screwed up our Best Bet for the day and a downgrade in confidence was posted on Twitter. Either way, we did tell you to hold fire as much as possible as Stakes Day shapes up to always be one of the best betting days of the year and our form oozes confidence in kind. I don’t see a great deal of value in the Quaddie today, but we will be hoping for a small 3-4 times return and be happy with that. Expecting a Soft range track. Here is a great track tool which should be updated from around 8.30am race day to see exactly how wet the track is in different parts. As always, i hope your form matches up with mine. Good luck and happy punting.
Melbourne Best Bet
Flemington Race 3 – Secret Number
My most confident bet for the carnival. I don’t hand out 90% confidence bets to just any runner and this runner just missed out on an upgrade to 95% confidence mainly due to track condition unknowns and not having a longer history of soft track runs on record. I’m not just expecting a win from the horse, I’m expecting a very comfortable win from the horse.
Melbourne Next Best Bet
Flemington Race 7 – Bow Creek – Each-Way
Run of the race last start at Moonee Valley when missing the start and going out the back, flashing home and just missing behind Turn Me Loose flying past Lucky Hussler. Meets both of these runners significantly better at the weights and has a strong soft track profile. Most importantly, with the horse jumping well in this race we can expect a closer to the speed run. Ideal horse and we are getting a great price to bet each-way.
Melbourne Best Value Bet
Flemington Race 5 – Petrology – Each-Way
This horse is about two levels above every other runner in the race. After doing the form I was expecting to see around the $4.50 mark being bet and I would have been interested in the price. We are getting double the odds on current fixed bookie prices and even higher on the exchanges. I just can’t let this price slip through to the keeper for a horse that ran 2.8L off Boban two runs back on a soft track, is a Group 2 winner and is back to BM-96 grade.
Melbourne Quaddie
Quaddie Leg One: 2, 8
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 3, 4, 6, 11, 12
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 4, 8, 16
Quaddie Leg Four: 2, 3, 4, 7, 9, 13
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Flemington Race 1 – 1000m – Maribyrnong Plate
1. Dalradian: Solid enough win first up and then won an okay race at Moonee Valley by a nose last start. Another step up here but looks well suited.
2. Valliano: Nosed out last start by Dalradian. Beaten by Missrock two runs back but was blocked for runs also. Form holds up.
3. Flying Artie: Unseen Mick Price colt. Market your only guide with no seen trials. Has been supported
5. Power Trip: Looked a nice type with a 2.3L trial win over 800m. Ready to run well today.
6. Power Up Rise: Mick Price, Damien Oliver – nicely bred colt. Market only guide again – been a drifter since opening short in the market.
7. War Hero: Trial looked better than what’s recorded on paper. Has been supported in betting from a double figure price.
9. Gloriette: Well supported since opening quote. Won a nice trial heading into this and bred to get the wet.
Comments: We have an impossible race to rate right here. We have two prices runners no one has ever seen before that have been supported. We have three class runners with strong form lines coming into this and then we have a few others with strong trial form. Whatever wins this will be a horse to to follow forward into the best 2YO races over the next 9 months. Watch for the late market move.
Confidence 10%
Strategy: Gloriette to win.
Flemington Race 2 – 2000m – Starlight Children’s Foundation Plate
1. Sysmo: Respectable 2nd to Our Voodoo Prince last start at Moonee Valley. Handles wet tracks. Tough with 61kg from barrier 14.
3. Distillation: BM-82 winner over 2600m and best run to date is over 3200m in Group 2 company. 2000m really looks too short here. Never won on wet.
4. Velox: Out the back and blocked for runs last start at Caulfield. Beat home Prince of Penzance in a no form race two back. Very strong run on soft three back at Pakenham… was his peak run… looks well suited today and could sit closer to the speed than mapped.
5. Okahu Bay: Well beaten last start behind Excites Zelady. Best run in the past over 2500m winning a 3F-GP3… think even on that she has to improve today. Never won on soft.
6. Pacific Heights: Continues to run well this prep without threatening to win. Back in class here and a wetter surface could do the trick. Handles it soft.
8. Prizum: Frustrating horse. Continues to run well and is the type of horse that finds a way to win in a week like this. Last win was on a soft track and has his best results % wise on soft tracks. Went very close four runs back at course and distance 2nd to Refulgent on soft.
10. Divan: A little surprised to see him a $3 favourite today, but he is going back from a Group 3 race to a BM-90 race off a 2nd to The Offer in the Bendigo Cup.. The Offer then ran top 10 in the Melbourne Cup. Zabeel so surely the horse gets the ground with no issues… going more than well enough based on two back and last start runs.
11. Have Plenty: All you can do is keep winning and that’s what Have Plenty is doing over in Adelaide going from a R-58 grade up to BM-75 then BM-82. This is a true test today for the horse… only run on a soft was a fail but did win maiden on heavy. Has ability.
13. Nesbo: Every chance last start at Kyneton 6th to Tristrams Sun. Was a decent enough run. Well back in class and short back-up if runs. Goes well on soft tracks… 3 wins 0 places at this class in the past.
Comments: There really aren’t many winning chances in this for mine. Have Plenty needs to improve again and I’m willing to take it on. Sysmo looks almost weighted out of this with 61kg… has the jockey to win but I think his form this prep has only been fair and even on the last start run, up 6kg here giving alot of weight away, he has to improve. Prizum is a big price on the soft surface today… a really good place price with 10 places from 22 at this track and 8 places from 11 runs on soft tracks.. can win. Velox is the obvious danger to the favourite back to the soft track today where a career peak was reached, but i think Velox has to improve it’s class before i can take $4.40 about it. All road point to Divan for me here off 54kg after a Group 3 2nd to The Offer with 54kg last start. Weighted to win and gets a gun run from the barrier.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Divan to win. Also back Prizum to win for a small amount.
Flemington Race 3 – 2600m – Queen’s Cup
1. Beaten Up: 5 runs on soft tracks for 0 places, but he did run 1L 4th to Preferment this prep on soft. Too far back last start when beaten in Listed grade as favourite after missing the start. Two back run in Group 1 company 2nd to Magic Hurricane obviously strong enough form to measure up here.
2. Dandino: Massive query on the soft track today. Only 1 win in the past on a soft surface when he was a young horse five years back in a race about 30-40 rating points below this. A classy horse can get away with a win on a soft or even heavy track even if they don’t handle it as well as others. Certainly not suggesting that he can’t win on the surface, but it’s a massive factor against here. Will need a Soft 5-6 to be well in here.
3. Secret Number: Looks very well suited in this race today. WFA-G3 winner coming out of 3YO grade in 2013… one run 2nd to Prince Bishop in 2014 in Group 3 company as favourite.. Prince Bishop went on to win the Dubai World Cup four months later. One run back this prep before heading out to Australia saw him win a Listed grade race on a soft track. Looks very well in here today off his best.
4. Bonfire: The wetter it is the better his chances you must think today. Last two runs have been horrible not measuring up after a strong 6th three runs back over 2000m. Is the 2600m the distance he really wants?
5. Bold Sniper: The Queens horse in the Queen’s Cup. Will start under the odds. No disgrace 5.8L 4th in the Moonee Valley Cup last start after they broke the track record, he probably ran inside the record that’s how fast they went. Has won in the past on soft tracks… win wouldn’t shock but obviously has to improve on recent form to win this.
6. Don Doremo: The wetter the better for him you would think to bring him into this level of class. Has to improve lengths.
7. Like A Carousel: Going horrible this prep. Doesn’t like it wet really either. No thanks.
Comments: On paper this really does look a battle of three with Secret Number, Dandino and Beaten Up. I think Beaten Up has proven to us that he is a non-winner with 13 runs since May of 2013 for 0 wins. He always runs well but finds one too good. In reality this prep he has been running well, but he hasn’t ever been in a winning position. I’ve been in the Dandino bandwagon pushing it along all prep, but with the soft track today and this classy level of race, I’m jumping off at the price. Too many unanswered questions with the horse here for mine. All road points to Secret Number and I’m quite keen to back the horse in here.
Confidence 90%
Strategy: Secret Number to win.
Flemington Race 4 – 1400m – Hilton Hotels & Resorts Stakes
1. Demonstrate: Well beaten last start at Moonee Valley by Holler. Previous runs this prep all been very good. Only ever won on soft tracks has to give you confidence. Just wipe last start off the record I say.
2. Secret Prophet: Omen bet for The Profits? 
– Nice enough maiden win at Geelong then failed at Pakenham. Back to form and won well at Randwick next start. Clearly much harder here but is running well enough to be a factor.
3. Les Darci: Big class jump this one. Never run on wet tracks but is bred to have no issues with the ground.
4. Kracken: Release the Kracken! Nice run at Sale last start blocked for runs. Going the right direction but I believe this is a class rise just a step above him at the moment.
6. Flying Spark: Every chance at Bendigo last start and beaten fairly. Large improvement required here and no wet track form.
7. Apoloboom: Looks like another Boom horse. Good maiden win first up and was wide last start running nicely enough at Sale. Clearly has to improve.
8. Ngarimu: VERY good win first up at Seymour. Did a lot wrong and won well in a very strong time. Very good barrier drawn today for a perfect run. Bred for wet. Expect the money to come for him.
9. Sogno D’oro: Maiden win two back. Well beaten last start at sale after laying in and being eased at the 200m. As a 2YO he ran well 4th in 2YO class, but this is really a step above what he has shown to date.
10. Palentino: Weir runner, started short both starts to date. Fairly beaten two back. Last start they went wide to make sure he won and he won it well as a short priced fav. Weighted well enough but obviously he has to improve on those runs.
11. Guilty As Sin: Maiden only winner. Last start well beaten but did do a lot wrong. Improvement required big time.
Comments: This really looks to be a race in three on form with Demonstrate the proven form, but queries over the horse being deep into a prep and yet to win in this class from 5 starts. Secret Prophet is clearly on the way up through the grades with a strong win last start at Randwick, but what actually did the horse beat that day? The 2nd placed horse came into that run with a 4th in BM-67 class and third placed was coming in with a BM-65 0.2L win at Kembla Grange. The bookies were scared of Ngarimu putting it up favourite. Money has come for a few others in the race with no surprise, but I can’t see Ngarimu longer than $5 on the day and I’m very keen to back the horse with the weight today from such a positive barrier.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: 1.5 units Ngarimu to win. 2 units Ngarimu to place.
Flemington Race 5 – 1600m – Antler Luggage Handicap
1. Petrology: Hugely disappointing this prep. Group 1 back to BM-96 today. Up 8kg. Up to 1600m where he should obviously be suited… had a month and a bit freshen-up. Has been working strongly at home and soft track is ideal. Stable seem confident back to this class.
2. Rhythm To Spare: A long time between drinks. Well beaten last start at Sale. Has won on soft. Have to improve clearly to be in this.
4. Setinum: Won a listed race first up as a huge surprise then has done absolutely nothing since. Only run on a soft track was close to last. Has the ability but hasn’t put together a run in 2 months and 5 runs at track for 0 wins.
5. Eximus: Goes well on wet tracks. Last two runs haven’t been up to grade to get the win today, but you just know Price had this race in mind all along. Has to improve but can go close.
6. Defiant Angel: Old mate just keeps going around in Adelaide and winning. Back over here for his toughest test yet.. never won on soft in 6 attempts but always goes well. Yet to measure up to this grade.
10. Inspector: Very easy win last start at Mornington in what really was a much easier race than this today. Weighted fairly… goes okay on wet but best runs on dryer recently.
12. King’s Dance: Close but no cigar 4th last start at Seymour when first up. Good 2nd up record and never missed a place on soft ground. Best record though still on Good tracks. Has to improve.
14. Elmantosh: Every chance behind some average form last start at Bendigo. Take on.
Comments: Only one horse i could consider backing here in Petrology. This horse is Lengths ahead of the rest in the category of best horse, we just need him to reproduce a strong run today off his good work at home to be winning. Looks a massive price to my eye.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Petrology E/W
Flemington Race 6 – 1200m – Darley Classic
1. Buffering: Goes well on all track surfaces but best is clearly the good track. 8 starts for 1 win 4 places down the straight. Places more than 2 in every 3 starts in this class. He is a champion. Very good win two back but well beaten when taken on from out the front last start at Moonee Valley. He is getting up in the years but he is still a good horse.
2. Chautauqua: Superstar. Magnificant win last start at Moonee Valley flying past the lot of them with the speed on. Against the bias in the TJ Smith on a very wet track he still got the win, it was the best of his career for mine, even better than last start. He then pushed Australian horse of the year Dissident to 0.5L over 1400m on a soft track and pulled up with Lacerations as well. He is the best sprinter in the world.
3. Boban: Unlucky last start when 2nd to Fawkner at Flemington over the 1600m. Probably should have got the win that day. Back to 1200m a bit surprising but I think he is good enough to run well at this distance. First time down the straight an issue. Best runs on dryer tracks in the past.
4. Terravista: Blocked for runs last start and never got a shot a them, but I’m not convinced at all that he was travelling well enough. Rebel Dane did frank his form at least. Handles the wet going with wins in the past but I believe it isn’t his ideal ground. Could back him to place but I don’t see any value in the win price.
5. Tiger Tees: Pace maker did his job pushing them along last start but couldn’t keep up with them either. Obviously goes best on wetter tracks but I don’t consider him a winning chance.
6. Flamberge: Not the most impressive win you will ever see last start at Morphetville and it really makes you question if the horse is actually good enough here today. 5 runs on soft or heavy for 4 wins. Group 1 winner… I can’t suggest he is the best here.
7. Delectation: Every man and his dog wants to be on this horse it seems.. Beaten by the bias last start when also blocked for runs in much easier company. I think Chautauqua had 3-4 lengths on him the previous start though… most believe he is going to be best on this ground.
8. Srikandi: Very respectable 2nd last start behind Chautauqua from midfield. Three runs on Soft or Heavy for Three wins to date. Goes on all surfaces but I still believe her very best runs have been on Good tracks. Weighted nicely enough today but I think she has to improve to win. Looks a great place chance.
10. Lumosty: The potential blowout? Seriously good horse. Well beaten by Srikandi on the soft two runs back over the 1400m. Probably best to the sprint distances. Tough ask IMO based on that first up run. Not for me.
Comments: We are getting a price required to back Chautauqua today with $1.70 already being bet and i can see that hitting above $1.80. On my market, this price is backable. I could also consider backing Srikandi at the $2+ for a place.
Confidence 75%
Quaddie Leg One: 2, 8
Strategy: Chautauqua to win.
Flemington Race 7 – 1600m – Emirates Stakes
1. Lucky Hussler: Great barrier again today. Last start run on a Soft track was 1L 6th to Dissident up at Randwick. Was protested against and upheld which dropped him to 6th. Very strong form line that run. Huge win two back at Caulfield smashing them, but last start at Moonee Valley was a little flat for mine not finishing off when it counted. They did run almost a second slower on that day though and Turn Me Loose got the monorail run that day out front. Bow Creek was the better run in the race compared with the Hussler.
2. Arod: Doesn’t want a bar of the wet track. Was a huge chance until 33M of rain came yesterday and I just can’t be near him now.
3. Turn Me Loose: Loves it dry and loves it wet with 1 win from one start on a soft track. Bred to get the soft no issues also. Good win two back at Seymour and backed up that win solidly last start at Moonee Valley. 3 starts 3 wins at this distance. Will be on speed and hard to catch if there is any leader bias.
4. Bow Creek: Awkward barrier but should be fine if he jumps well today instead of missing the start like last start! 1L off Kingfisher over 2000m in his last run on Soft is great form considering how well Kingfisher was going at that stage. Obviously one of the top chances on that last start run at Moonee Valley. 1.5kg better off against Turn Me Loose. 2kg better off against Lucky Hussler.
5. Disposition: Proven on Soft track now but did get the monorail run at course over 1400m. Get the feeling he is going well but just not good enough to consider a winning hope here.
6. Magic Artist: Flying home first up at Flemington he just missed when he couldn’t jump over Gailo Chop on the monorail to get the win. How much of the run was his pure ability and the fact he was also on the Monorail? Back to 1600m the concern for mine… but he does go down to 54kg which is hard to hate on against these today. Was on the firmer stuff… still an issue if he handles the real wet track today.
7. Ecuador: Handles a wet track, no doubt. Did a lot wrong over racing last start at Flemington. Two back run form ran 2.3L off Winx, but out of that race the 3rd, 4th and 5th horses have all failed heavily since.
9. Moriarty: Old mate doesn’t like it wet. No chance.
10. Amovatio: Well beaten last start in similar grade. He is a good horse, but is he a Group 1 Emirates Stakes winner? He has a turn of foot but not the same as the best in this for mine. Also feel the soft doesn’t suit. Send him to WA and he will go close.
11. Politeness: Old mate Politeness. She finds her best on the wet tracks and this is hers to win today. Goes well at course goes well at distance and goes well in the wet. Checks all the boxes.
12. Sons of John: He is going better than his form suggests, but he has to prove that he is good enough to beat all these. Handles the wet.
13. May’s Dream: Did a lot of work last start behind Politeness. Similar weight today. I struggle to see the turnaround on Politeness here from the barrier.
14. Rock Sturdy: Not good enough a horse especially on the wet tracks to beat all these.
15. Coronation Shallan: Nice enough win last start at Moonee Valley from out the front. Won’t get that run today. Back to soft tracks where she isn’t at her best for mine on ratings. Not the one for me.
16. He or She: Unproven on soft tracks. His best really isn’t good enough on my ratings.
Comments: Two of the highest quality races of the Spring in a row, we are certainly spoiled compared to the rubbish we had to put up with on Thursday. This race is simple for me. Bow Creek is the best weighted horse today. Not only that, the horse should be ridden more forward as long as he doesn’t miss the start again. The main threat on my ratings is Politeness, but even then, Bow Creek is really proven at this level while Politness isn’t. All roads lead to Bow Creek.
Confidence 85%
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 3, 4, 6, 11, 12
Strategy: Bow Creek E/W
Flemington Race 8 – 2000m – Presto Matriarch Stakes:
1. Lucia Valentina: She ran home well enough in the Caulfield Cup from the back. She will LOVE the wet track today and this brings her well into the race back to 2000m. Can win.
3. Oriental Lady: Well backed the last two starts when ran well both times in easier grade. Step up again but should run well on a soft track. Has to improve and barrier doesn’t help.
4. Pondarosa Miss: New Zealand GROUP 1 WINNER over the 1600m on soft track last prep. Won 4 from 6 on soft tracks. Four runs this prep. Ignore first up over 1200m and ignore the last two on good tracks really.. she is going well enough and the stable have a very big opinion of her. Very well in here today.. won’t be fancied in the betting either.
5. Casino Dancer: Every chance really last start at Randwick and well beaten. Surprise winner two back on Good surface. Not on soft.
6. No Tricks: Been up this prep forever it seems. Nice enough run three back at Caulfield.. but last two runs have me not convinced. Last win was on a soft track… not convinced she is good enough.
8. Manageress: Hard to suggest she is doing a lot wrong this prep with strong runs the last five starts. Ignore last start and rate on previous runs. Has the ability but does have to prove she is top shelf.
9. Ungrateful Ellen: Very nice type. Best runs in the past over a little further I would suggest is the only issue but she did run Winx to 3.5L over 2200m. Never run on wet.
10. Sure You Can: Runs very well at this course. Good stats over the distance. 5 runs for 1 place on wet a concern. Good run last start heading into this.
11. Lady Cumquat: Doesn’t win out of turn this horse… hasn’t won in Australia since early 2014 NZ win. Never won on worse than a Good 4. Not going well enough for mine.
12. Imperial Lass: Good win last start at Moonee Valley but it wasn’t the classiest race ever. Previous prep told us where she was class wise and it’s a step off the very best of them.
13. Zarzali: Didn’t beat much in Mares grade on Tuesday. Much harder this. Not sure the barrier helps either for a horse that gets back.
14. Inishowen: Over-race and never a chance on Tuesday. Not a horse i could ever back with confidence.
15. Spanish Love: Dead last when blocked for runs last start at MV. Well beaten previous run. Nothing this prep suggests to a win here.
16. Long Face Grace: Stable has a big opinion of this girl. Looked the winner last start but just didn’t hold on. Beat Zanteca two back which is solid form. Can win if there is a monorail.
17. Ring da Belle: Stable fairly confident of a nice run if she gets a run here. Going well enough on two previous runs and runs really well on soft… but hasn’t won in a long time.
Comments: The money has come for one NZ runner, but in reality, it’s the other one they should all be keeping an eye on. Pondarosa Miss is ticking over nicely and finds the wet track today she is crying out for having flown in last Wednesday. Settled in well and looks very well weighted here for a Group 1 winner.
Confidence 75%
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 4, 8, 16
Strategy: Pondarosa Miss Each-Way.
Flemington Race 9 – 1400m – Emirates Airline Handicap
2. Mirage: Ran quite well first up at Caulfield beaten 2.5L by Fast and Rocking who has gone on to run well in Group class after that run. Has a good 2nd up record and has never missed a place on heavy or soft in the place. Last run at class and distance on soft was a win. Respect.
3. Reldas: One run on soft for this bloke and he didn’t handle it. Going very well this prep with two very strong runs and keeps improving. Up to 1400m ideal and should run better today at this track around the turn.
4. Gracious Prospect: Well backed in betting. 9 runs on soft or heavy and hasn’t won ever in the past. Going well enough but has to improve for mine 1000m back up to 1400m. Never won 2nd up and just once from 15 starts in class.
6. Chile Express: Has won on soft in the past and placed three other times from seven starts. 1 win from 24 starts at track and 1 win from 19 starts at class. This is his best distance range. First up he normally performs well but this is clearly his hardest test in a long while first up. Has to be peaking.
7. Longeron: Nice record on soft tracks. Never won first up which is a big issue and 1 win from 9 starts at distance 1 win from 10 starts at track and 0 wins from 4 starts at class has us worrying a little if he will measure up at this distance in this class. Will be on speed from the wide barrier with a few others pushing a strong tempo.
8. Timeless Prince: Down from up north for the first time at track. The wetter it is the better his chances with 2 wins 1 place from 3 starts on heavy. Two runs this prep over similar distances but has failed to show anything close to the form required to win this.
9. Malaguerra: On speed start to finish win via the monorail on Tuesday. Four runs back soft track win on record so should handle the track just fine. Big step up again today is the issue but ran a super time so hard to ignore the last start run. Flying.
10. Ulmann: Three runs this prep and has gone backwards since the fair run first up behind Fell Swoop. Never run on wet.
12. Flow Meter: Best performances in the past have been on dryer tracks. Coming into this with two runs this prep and hasn’t been good enough to win for mine.
13. Staviva: Two wins in easier company to start the prep then well beaten the last two runs. Did have excuses both runs but to measure up here has to improve. Does go well on Soft.
Comments: Very hard way to end the day. Almost every runner in the race has a chance on the ratings. Wide in the Quaddie. Good Value is clearly over the odds if the horse has recovered from the last start issues. Mirage will be very hard to get past if front runners are a chance throughout the day.
Confidence 65%
Quaddie Leg Four: 2, 3, 4, 7, 9, 13
Strategy: Mirage on the Each-Way
