Welcome to The Profits form guide for 4 May 2016 at Warrnambool. We enter Day Two off three best bets and three wins on the first day of the Carnival. It appeared as though the majority of punters had a win on the day which is great to see. Just remember, bet only into the races you feel confident about and you should come out ahead at the end of the carnival by limiting the markets you bet into. Today doesn’t present a load of value for the shorties in the market today and there isn’t even much value laying either, so i’m going with two big odds runners as my only core bets of the day. I think we should be coming out ahead with at least one of these placing and hopefully we can get both home or to at least place. I’ll also be placing a multi on both of these to place and to win in multis. Looking forward to some great flat and jumping action and avoiding the Quaddie. There are four bets on the cards for me today and in an unlikely turn of events, two of those are lays! As always, I hope your form matches up with mine! Good luck and happy punting.
Best Bets
Warrnambool Race 6 – About The Journey for 0.5 Units @ $26/$4.8 Each-Way
Warrnambool Race 9 – Huffanpuff 0.5 units @ $21/$6 Each-Way
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use for the basics – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Our results are updated daily here – Betting Spreadsheet
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Warrnambool Race 1
There are a number of horses here with profiles that suggest they won’t handle a heavy track and we can simply avoid them.
Banksters Bonus has placed once on heavy but does have an okay strike rate on soft. The form lines are obviously strong in terms of having staying blood and also having measured up to high grades in BM races. Had two very solid hurdle trials heading into this.
Lordoftheparrots last win was over 3000m in a BM-70 on a soft track at this course. We know the horse can stay. I think we just have to ignore the last start run when he was disappointing and rate at his best which measures up here.
Meilucca is one of the Stanaway horses that looks to actually have half decent ability. Bred to stay and has won on Heavy in the past… I do note 18 runs for 1 win and 1 place on soft or heavy though.
Rebel Rising has old mate Stevie P onboard. 7 runs for 4 places on soft or heavy but never a win. Short priced two runs back over the hurdles here but failed to place on a soft track. BM-64 favourite last start and ran 7th also. He has to step his game up today.
Saddle The Stars is another with a decent hope here. Good close 2nd last start at Hamilton over 3200m hurdles, you have to think he will handle the jumps and going and distance on breeding.
Waxing is having his attempt over the jumps. Gun combo of Weir and Allen today, his only run on a wet surface was a Soft 7 win five runs back at Geelong over 2400m. On breeding and that Soft 7 run, I have little concern about the surface today.
Comments: A wide open contest. I really like the chances of Waxing here but also like the chances of Banksters Bonus. I’m not convinced I have the prices I need to back either here today though with the other in the race. The logical play would be to lay Rebel Rising. I’m going to opt for the Back one and saver the other based on odds available.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Back Banksters Bonus to win. Saver bet Waxing.
Warrnambool Race 2
Kinglami was a disappointing 5th first up as favourite over 1400m. Back up to a distance that suits the horse, a track where he runs well and a wet track which has suited him in the past, he ticks all the boxes in a race like this.
Volcan De Fuego has never seen wet ground but with double NZ breeding you don’t think it will be much of an issue? Went close last start at Mornington but has to clearly improve onwards again, but not by much.
Iceyfiable looks a decent chance at odds. Ran very well last prep first up over 1400m at course on a Heavy track. Previous run at track over 1700m on soft ran a nice 3rd at big odds. Two runs in on good surfaces have been horrible. Win wouldn’t shock me.
Mrs Zelfire is another DK Weir runner. Has run on Heavy at course over 1400m defeated 0.1L, so the horse is proven. Three runs this prep have been all very average though.. hard to be strongly into her.
Star Siren is having her 4th run today. Her last two runs she has found traffic issues coming home strongly and just missing. This looks a great chance to break through, but she is certainly unproven on the ground.
Comments: Another nightmare maiden race on our hands. I get the feeling it’s going to come down to who handles the ground the most. Strike-rate wise, the sire of Star Siren has a much better strike rate than most the other unknowns in the race and they wouldn’t be coming here knowing the horse can’t swim.
Confidence 60%
Strategy: Star Siren to win.
Warrnambool Race 6
Wells showed more than enough with his lead in run last start to suggest he is ready to fire over the hurdles. His best in the past has been over further with the 4500m being his last win, but he is no disgrace over the 3200m distance either. His last two runs on heavy have been places…. handles it wet.
King of Dudes has been horrible in all four lead ins simply well beaten in all runs. I really get the feeling even with the ground today that he will be wanting much further than the 3200m.
Arch Fire loves the jumps and has been impressive all the way through his career on both flat and jumps. His very best has been on heavy surfaces which he gets here and could be the difference in turning the tables on Gingerboy.
Stand to Gain has always shown his best over the jumps from out the front on heavy surfaces. He gets his chance today after a disappointing run last start behind Gingerboy.
About The Journey has had his form franked with Valediction winning strongly yesterday in the Brierly. Handles all types of surfaces and the 3200m really is his maximum distance. Goes well at this track and does look well suited on form heading into this.
Gingerboy is the heavily backed favourite for the Galleywood this year. He comes into this race with city class form with a close Caulfiled 2nd, close Morphetville third and then a dominant win over the 3300m last start. The issue simply is, this is a horse with 7 starts on soft and 3 on heavy for 0 wins. His placings suggest he goes fine on a wet track, but the jury is certainly out until he gets a win on the board.
Diamond Jim looks safely held on his runs to date this prep.
Tuscan Fire is going okay in open class over the flat. I’m still convinced he isn’t suited to a strong tempo over the jumps, but he does seem to handle wet surfaces. Look around him for mine.
Big Ben Chimes got the win last start but didn’t defeat much. Big step up in grade here for a horse that’s best looks a class below these.
Yolanda Be Cool appears to be slightly over the odds for mine, but certainly no $10 pop. Should handle the track okay and will stay.
Comments: I was keen to lay Gingerboy here until Angelology was scratched. I’ve pulled that bet before posting after having this race written up early in the day. It’s all about the value now for me in the race and I think it’s big value. About The Journey is a proven wet tracker and his win three back and run last start is more than good enough to measure up here.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: About The Journey for 0.5 Units @ $26/$4.8 Each-Way.
Warrnambool Race 8 – 1200m – Wangoom Handicap
Hellova Street: 0 runs to date on heavy but has won 2 and placed 3 from 6 starts on soft tracks. Has some solid wins back home in Tasmania and was a respectable 2.3L 5th last start at Caulfield in harder grade. Last 3 wins have been good tracks though. Maps nicely.
Rain Affair: Hasn’t won since 2014. His best the last few preps have been good enough to measure up here on what has been his most successful surface in the past, Heavy. The price suggests he is a contender today.
Girl Guide: Unknown on the wet surface here. Huge run first up at Caulfield, good enough to win this and be favourite if this was a Good track today, but it isn’t. Barrier doesn’t help chances.
Jimando: Four runs this prep and yet to place. To be fair though, 2L off Black Heart Bart is good enough to measure up here. Only 1 run in the past on a soft track and failed to place.
Mirage: Handles all surface types. Will be pushing forward as expected. Need to improve from last two starts.
Yesterday’s Songs: Will be going back to midfield at best today, as always. Goes well on wetter tracks and with the breeding should get the heavy track I’d imagine. Best is good enough.
Our Nkwazi: Big price here. Last win on soft in easier company than this. I think his best can go close but he was very poor first up this prep. Handles heavy.
Magnus Lad: Hasn’t been seen since a failed attempt up north last prep. Previous prep was at the bool here last year where ran 2nd to Royal Island. Handles the wet.
Royal Island: Won here last year. Hasn’t won since. Best runs are on wetter surfaces but generally in the soft range. Obviously needs to be going better than the end of last prep. Nice first up record.
Kirani: Maps well from barrier 6. Good runs two and three back in similar class to this but last start wasn’t great at Caulfield. Unproven on a heavy track.
Noela’s Choice: 5 runs on heavy for 2 wins 2 places and 3 runs on soft for 2 wins suggests she is no issues with the round today. 4 runs in similar grade though for 0 places. Four runs this prep and while her first up run was very good, she has failed to get closer than 2.8L off a win since. Even last start she had every chance at Bendigo and didn’t produce much. Back to 1200m today.
Don’t Get Excited: Hasn’t won since 2014. Goes nicely enough on wet tracks, but hasn’t been close to a place in three preps. First up run wasn’t terrible.
Stellar Collision: Favourite, but under the odds for mine. 3YO stepping up into open class, they are always unders if they start favourites. Failed to fire only run on a soft track last start at Randwick. Has ability but i’ll take him on.
Temps Voleur: Never placed over this distance in the past. Has won on heavy. Last win was over 2000m.
Ruettiger: Untapped potential. Three runs on soft but never got a win. 0 runs on heavy so unknown.
Comments: It’s not often I come into a feature race with 150k prize money on offer and have no idea how to play here, but that’s what i’m presented with. This is a disgustingly hard race to bet into. The only way I can end up betting here is on the Tasmanian horse Hellova Street. The horse is super consistent and going well enough.. i think the wet track will be the key as well as mapping better than last start.
Confidence 55%
Strategy: Hellova Street E/W
Warrnambool Race 9
Huffanpuff is a horse of great interest to me. The horse went through the grades back home in New Zealand putting in three solid runs over 2000m+ on Heavy tracks for 2 wins and a close 2nd when finding bad luck in running. The 1700m should be fine today and the track will be more than heavy enough for him to get every possible chance. The only thing that could stop him is getitng too far back from the barrier.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Huffanpuff 0.5 units @ $21/$6 Each-Way
