Full Moonee Valley Form 2 October 2015​

Horse Racing - Australia

Welcome to The Profits form guide for Moonee Valley on the 2 of October 2015. Our strong run of form continued last week with a profit for Best Bet punters and a 24X return in VIC or 50+X return in NSW for Quaddie backers. Good racing produces good results, it has been like this the last five years for us and let’s hope it continues. This weekend of betting is a marathon, not a sprint, so don’t fire all your bullets too early. There looks to be some strong betting races tonight so we will certainly be players, but just make sure you keep to your betting limits!  As always, you can check out my trackwalking thoughts on Twitter – the track will play fair with the inside 6M from the 600m the best ground.. personally feel the rail is great, so you can generally expect a fair rail to result in more front runners than not… certainly don’t want to be further back than midfield today i’d say unless you are a very good horse! As always, i hope your form matches up with mine. Good luck and happy punting.

Melbourne Best Bet

Moonee Valley Race 8 – Two Horse Play – Tawteen or Galaxy Pegasus to win
Odds at current best fixed odds come out to around $2.25 for those wondering. Tawteen is simply a forgive run from last start. Rated on previous runs this prep is the horse to beat getting a clear lead with no others looking to take the horse on. Loves this track and has the record to back it up. Galaxy Pegasus is coming off a luckless run where the horse looked like it was going to explode away for a win if found clear running. Maps to get a run 1 out and 2-3 back which looks ideal for this race today and gives us a perfect back up if a horse does ruin it for Tawteen.

Melbourne Next Best Bet

Moonee Valley Race 6 – The United States to win
Genuine every start and has been unlucky not to win the last two i’d suggest. Maps to get a much better run today and shouldn’t be covering too much ground compared to last two starts. Looks suited and the price is more than I need to back it. Will also be having a small bet on Digitalism in the race at $20+ coming from a different form line.

Melbourne Best Each-Way

Moonee Valley Race 4 – Sandhill Flash on the Each-Way
Will sit on speed today from barrier two, if he doesn’t lead he will sit outside the leader today, no issues either way. Won 3 of his last 5 in harder company and brings the best form into this race. Top weight but deserves it, looks a class above these runners at the distance, will be peaking 3rd up and looks a great E/W bet.

Melbourne Quaddie

Quaddie Leg One:  2, 3, 6, 7, 8, 10, 11
Quaddie Leg Two:  1, 5, 7, 8, 10
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 4, 6, 9, 12, 13
Quaddie Leg Four: 6, 11

Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au

Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.

Moonee Valley Race 1 – 1200m – William Hill Plate
Gear Changes: Danuki – Visor First Time & Blinkers Off, Well Sighted – Lugging Bit, Wind Force – Winkers Off & Blinkers On, Truculent – Cross Over Noseband First Time.
1. Mawahibb: Measured up last prep with a huge win to finish last prep in 2YO class with a 4 length win at course and distance. First up run was very respectable when 3rd to Bassett at Caulfield and we can expect a bold run today. Hard to beat on first up run.
2. Danuki: Ran well first up then very disappointing in harder company last start. Back in class but still very strong race today, expect to be pushing forward from barrier.
3. Keen Array: Pushed forward last start at Caulfield with Mawahibb on his outside and was tested all he way costing him any chance. Well weighted against this lot and matches up well with Mawahibb here also.
5. Well Sighted: Did everything right last start at Caulfield when half a length off Keen Array and Mawahibb. Can improve up to 1200m today and won a 2YO race at this distance last prep. Dream barrier to get a sit off the leaders if good enough.
6. Prestwick: Two good runs last prep with a win and strong run 2nd to Kinglike. Has the ability to run well but barrier certainly an issue.
7. Trench Fighter: Only a fair maiden win second up. Others favoured on form.
8. Ability: Showed that he is a good horse but wasn’t good enough to match the best last start and i’d struggle to back him today on that run.
9. Wind Force: Good maiden win at Pakenham last prep but was very disappointing not getting the win first up in easier than this.
10. Truculent: Nice enough maiden win first up this prep in much easier class from out the back. Will go back from barrier and be ridden for luck. Win wouldn’t shock.
11. Dane Thunder: Heavy track maiden win first up. Was okay price moneyb ut obviously has to prove itself today.

Comments: This race is simple. Mawahibb and Keen Array are clearly the best horses. The only way you could approach this is to bet on both horses at around $1.70 odds for either horse to win. Hayes suggested they won’t get involved in a speed battle today either which is positive.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Back Keen Array for 1.25 units to win. Back Mawahibb for 1 unit to win.

Moonee Valley Race 2 – 1500m – Sweeney Estate Agents Handicap
Gear Changes: Alleyoop – Tongue Tie On
1. Moonovermanhattan: Back in class today after a very nice run at Caulfield off a tempo that did help those closer to the speed. 3kg claim has him down to 58kg though which helps a lot. He will need to be given a good ride to get in from the barrier out the front, but he is good enough.
2. Mighty Like: First up run on soft track was good but last two starts very poor. Hard to take seriously off last two runs but does have ability from a good barrier and looks the clear overs of the race on mapping and ability.
3. Harada Bay: Down from Queensland where he hasn’t been winning which is a worry. Beaten by some very average types as well. Take on.
4. Outlandish Lad: Blocked for run first up so not sure what to make of the run. 10YO now and hasn’t won in 3 years! Need to see a good run before backing.
5. Burning Front: Consistently strong to the line in any class. 11 runs in a row without missing a place. Is his best good enough? Yes, but there isn’t more than a head between him and a win type of thing. Maps to lead.
6. Lady Cumquat: Best found every prep over further than this. Can run well but can’t see winning especially from barrier.
7. Supreme Warrior: Very strong 1L 6th to The United States at MV two back in harder and then last start third to By The Grace. Back to winnable class today, barrier 1 will see him stalking the leaders for a last ditch sprint at them.
8. Schockemohle: Raced wide and still finished off quite well for 2.8L 8th first up. Needs further and not sure 1500m is the ideal for that.. but he never runs poorly at this track so win wouldn’t shock.
9. Alleyoop: NZ runner who went okay first up. Best runs on record on wetter surfaces the issue. Good barrier today up in class does have to improve.
10. Creance: Running well on wetter over in Adelaide before failing to finish off in harder grade the last two starts. Back in grade today but dryer hasn’t been his best recently around this grade.
11. So Does He: Strong win last start at Caulfield holding off Cross of Gold and clear of the rest of the field. Jump up in grade looks acceptable today off the last two runs and form around those races. Issue is 7 runs 0 wins at this track, but form barrier 7 shouldn’t have to go too wide.
12. Bon Rocket: Beat So Does He at course and distance last start. Meets 0.5kg worse off today but no matter. Strong enough form lines to suggest a good run today but barrier does hurt.

Comments:  On ‘recent form’ coming into this race, Supreme Warrior has the profile to be considered the best performing horse, maps perfectly and looks very well weighted. But he has the issue of just 1 place from 6 starts at the track and hasn’t won in this class previously. Moonovermanhattan is looking for 2000m to find his best so i’m surprised to see him at favourite, but the rail should be suiting those on speed whcih may explain the price, his run two back wasn’t bad either behind Fell Swoop… 58kg looks fair but i couldn’t dive into $4 around this distance. Bon Rocket and So Does He looks slight unders on my ratings up to this grade with 1 placing from 8 starts between them in the past in this class. Burnint Fron has the same profile as those as well, measures up at the lower grades but yet to crack this grade. I keep coming back to Mighty Like and his strong first up run. His last win was in Open grade at Flemington over 1400m.. he has the ability and he maps perfectly today with Dunn going onboard. The odds look great.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Mighty Like on the Each-Way. Smaller bet on Supreme Warrior also.

Moonee Valley Race 3 – 1600m – StrathAyr Track Stock Stakes
1. Amanpour: First two runs this prep were pretty rubbish. Expect to be closer to the speed today up to the distance she is looking for, but i’d be looking for large improvement on those first two runs to be winning this.
2. May’s Dream: Consistently consistent as a race horse. Two very strong runs in this class first and second up and up to 1600m should have her winning if good enough. Could slot perfectly 1/1 today.
3. Scratchy Bottom: Ignore first run when blocked for runs from out the back. Harder class today but up in distance helps. Best over further.
4. Precious Gem: Finished alongside May’s Dream last start at Flemington nosing her out which is fairly important a factor. Should see her shuffled back again, like last start. Distance increase helps and last win was in Mares grade beating Amanpour which stacks up here obviously. Speed should be on.
5. Fenway: 3F-GP1 first and second last prep beating First Seal and running 2nd to Delicacy. Barrier 2 should see her just off the pace and Shinn back onboard.
6. Ungrateful Ellen: Well beaten first up but was blocked for runs so have to forgive the run. Obviously has ability measuring up in 3F-GP1 class last prep but couldn’t get close to Winx (no surprise). Has the winning ability from last prep over this dsitance.
7. Sardaaj: Couldn’t have been given a less positive ride last start at Caulfield if you wanted one. It gave the horse 0 chance and she still finished 6th. Real concerns today she will race flat off that tough run and she is well up in grade.

Comments: Think you have to take on Sardaaj and Amanpour at the prices today while May’s Dream looks a touch of unders compared to Precious Gem. Fenway gets the gun run today and with three weeks between runs should be rock hard fit ready for this run at a distance that suits.
Confidence 65%
Strategy: Small bets on Precious Gem & Fenway.

Moonee Valley Race 4 – 955m – Jeep 55 Second Challenge
Gear Changes: Consorting – Cross Over Noseband First Time, Lady Jetsetter – Barrier Blanket First Time & Tongue Control Bit – Off
1. Sandhill Flash: Traded wins with The Messina Nymph in harder class first and second up. On speed both starts which is perfect from barrier 2 today… most importantly The Messina Nymph is a Listed grade winner at Caulfield from last prep and Group 3 placed in Adelaide… so the form is genuine. Back in distance today for this talented gelding, he always puts in… and that’s why he is top weight.
2. Grane: Consistent type who is always there or there abouts, but doesn’t win very often. First up run with top weight was very strong blocked for runs hitting the line hard. Goes well over this distance as well. Barrier the issue.
3. Consorting: Two very poor runs last prep. Previous prep was a very nice horse measuring up in similar grade and won at course and distance in BM-53 grade. This looks much harder and first up form not that great.
4. Gallant Harmony: Placed 9 runs in a row with 3 wins in that also. Goes well around this distance in the past but his best has been over the 1200m at this track… did run well 2nd over 1000m at Flemington and here also though… so i don’t see an issue with the distance if good enough. Awkward barrier doesn’t help chances but good ride gets a perfect spot today.
5. Quartzite: Barrier 1 down from NSW. Will push forward and may try hold out the Adelaide visitors Sandhill Flash for the lead. Strong win at Randwick to finish last prep over 1000m and first up run just missed at Warwick Farm with 59kg in a fast run race. Down to 56kg today and back to 955m should suit considering four runs back 900m win. Looks a leading contender.
6. Canali: Old mate puts in runs when you don’t expect it, but last prep was fairly disappointing overall not placing from many runs… same with previous prep. Hard to have.
7. Sweet Emily: She has been thrown in the deep end all three runs this prep and not exactly measured up well enough. Beaten over 3 lengths all runs this prep, certainly suited by back to 955m as she loves it and back in class also… she is off a similar mark which helps. Won’t be handed an easy lead today though. Not the same horse this prep.
8. Reldas: Old mate was hard to catch last prep after some promising wins at course over 1200m… when he returned back over the 955m he wasn’t sharp enough for it, we learnt that and we can’t be on today.
9. Lady Jetsetter: Won 4 of her last 6 races, clearly a talented horse who loves these shorter distances. Will be sitting midfield and coming over the top late.
10. Steel Trigger: Not in this grade today sorry.

Comments:  Reldas being bet as equal favourite a joke. The horse last prep showed us that he doesn’t have the early speed to keep up with them and to finish off late. Gallant Harmony is a consistent type, but she hasn’t got a win past the BM-78 grade and finds one too good every other time. Sweet Emily doesn’t look to be peaking with the three runs to date in harder company, she will run better today but I’m not convinced here at the price. The three of interest here for me today are Lady Jetsetter, Quartzite and Sandhill Flash. On principle of going from 3YO grade up into open grade, i do have to take Lady Jetsetter on but i do feel the price looks bettable today. Quartzite has clearly shown the ability to win over this distance and looks to be well in today, i just have a query with him beating all these home as there are some good sorts and the price just doesn’t appeal. Sandhill Flash is the horse i want to be with. Perfect barrier today, the leaders will be suited by the rail… could find the front but I’m happy with a sit outside the leader also. 59kg looks fair considering his strong Open class win first up… his last 5 runs have been in Open/Listed grade for two firsts and a second… his other not placed runs were 2L and 1.8L off the win at Flemington in sprints in harder grade. Everything points to him being a great price here.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Sandhill Flash on the E/W

Moonee Valley Race 5 – 1600m – Stutt Stakes
1. Gredington: Will be out the back today from the barrier in this race. 2YO winner on wetter tracks, hasn’t run within 2L of a win in this grade of race in 5 runs and last start was very poor at Flemington. I have to take him on.
2. Patch Adams: Top weight last start at Pakenham wasn’t exactly ‘suited’ but ground away to the line. His run two back at Flemington was very good and previous two runs to that were solid also. May just not handle weight? Was certainly a flat run last start.. could have been surface also. Shown the ratings to win this in last four runs.
3. He’s Our Rokkii: New Zealand import, has a 2nd to his name in 2YO-G3 and ran 4th in a 2Y-GP1 from the back, blocked for runs. Won his maiden first up very easy. Hayes really didn’t give you confidence in his thoughts about the horse, clearly will be ridden cold out the back.
5. Get The Picture: Maiden winner.. took three runs to get it under the belt but was over this distance. Obviously has to improve to measure up to these.
6. Ragnaar: Measured up in 2YO-LR grade over in New Zealand. First up got the win in maiden class at Bendigo. Obviously has ability on what we know too date but has to improve on that first run again.
7. Sovereign Nation: If you wanted to follow the horse Hayes was keen to talk about in this race, then it’s Sovereign Nation. Ran home nicely from out the back last start at Flemington in this grade. Barrier 3 today, expect to sit closer to the speed than expected, could be midfield. Big ability.
8. Admirabeel: Cranbourne maiden winner in fairly average time over the 1400m. Didn’t have to beat much that day either.
9. Loyalty Man: Couldn’t win a maiden coming into this. Hard to have.
10. Nurburgring: Not the worst run last start at Morphetville but couldn’t win maiden first up (a lot done wrong and blocked for run)… needs to improve on that Morphetville run.
11. Collaborate: Maiden winner over in NZ… first up today in Aus.. take on.

Comments: Probably the worst $200,000 race you will see this month. There is no speed runner in the race so i don’t know how the best horses mapped out the back are going to get the speed needed to win. Patch Adams should sit close enough to the speed to have every chance.
Confidence 50%
Quaddie Leg One: 2, 3, 6, 7, 8, 10, 11
Strategy: Patch Adams to win.

Moonee Valley Race 6 – 2040m – JRA Cup
Gear Changes: Genuine Lad – Tongue Tie First Time
1. Prince of Penzance: Very disappointing run from the back with top weight at Ballarat last start considering the first up run at Caulfield. Up to 2040m today and last start may simply have been to get him fit for this. Top weight today. Loves this track with 2 from 2. Loves this distance. Will be out the back/worse than midfield you would think.
3. Magnapal: Three starts this prep for three wins beating some fairly good horses along the way. Been given the weight having to carry 1.5kg extra than The United States today… has drawn perfectly again in barrier 6. Maps perfectly again and tempo will be on to suit, again. Hard not to consider BUT is 3 runs for 0 placings at track.
4. Escado: Doesn’t win out of turn and better later into preps. First two runs too poor to consider.
5. The United States: This is his race to win today. Will sit midfield instead of out the back today I’d expect with a lack of tempo. He has to win in the lead up to the Caulfield Cup to get a run for mine and drew the ideal barrier. Only bad luck stops him fighting this to the line.
6. Desert Jeuney: Continues to run fairly but not be in the finish. Up to 2000m should suit but last fur runs don’t suggest it to be.
7. Genuine Lad: Led and looked the winner at stages throughout the race but couldn’t hold on. Weighted 2kg better off today than Magnapal but won’t get the lead with a speed horse in the race. Consistent type missing a place 13 of the last 14 starts.
8. Digitalism: Got in last start with bottom weight and stole the win off Lord Durante late. Consistent type and enjoys any pace on in a race. Barrier 2 should see him midfield at worse… have to consider.
9. Diametric: Just not going well enough on last two runs to consider him here… short backup… poor barrier.
10. Awesome Rock: His going well right now… step up to this distance a big unknown for mine. His run behind Charmed Harmony two back was good and was just 3L off Fawkner in WFA-G1 over 1600m last start doing alot wrong. Gets a good spot from barrier you would imagine.
11. Mujadale: You have to whip the hell out of this horse for it to win and it won’t be allowed to occur today. Forrester off the horse for that reason. Will set a very strong tempo on speed today..
12. Velox: Very strong win first up over 1600m this import who is 3rd up today. Barrier doesn’t suit the horse an issue and not sure he is very well weighted.

Comments: A simple betting race for mine today. You bet The United States and you also bet Digitalism at the massive odds. Too many unknowns with Awesome Rock today to take the price with the pace expected to be on out the front. Velox has a horror barrier for a back marker and is unders in the race. Genuine Lad should be claimed by the good ones today and Magnapal gets the weight to lose to The United States today. Everything is in The United States corner.
Confidence 85%
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 5, 7, 8, 10
Strategy: The United States to win. Smaller Bet Digitalism.

Moonee Valley Race 7 – 1000m – Moir Stakes
Gear Changes: Angelic Light – Bandages First Time.
1. Buffering: Old mate buffering is back for another prep. Won this race last year, but it was over the 1200m not 1000m. Hasn’t seen this distance for a long time and safe to say his best runs in the past few years have been 1200m. Won’t be getting an easy lead like last prep also and we have a full field instead of just the five runners last year. Need to be at his best.
2. Sterling City: Top weight in the Bobbie Lewis but didn’t show much at all. Showed about as much as we saw last prep over at Sha Tin.
3. Rain Affair: New stable. Didn’t place last prep because he simply isn’t his old self. Will be on speed pushing forward from barrier 11… expect tempo to be strong but he isn’t the same horse.
4. Flamberge: Great run 2nd to Chautauqa last start at course and distance on equal weights. Simply beaten by the best sprinter in AUS that day.. don’t discount at all. Group 1 winner. Barrier only issue.
5. Le Bonsir: Decent horse and good win last start at course and distance, but this is MUCH harder. Can’t consider.
6. Ball of Muscle: Ran very well last start at Randwick improving on the first up run that was fairly average. Has to improve onwards again to measure up here and tempo out front will be fierce.. even from barrier 1 could be crossed if not careful.
7. Angelic Light: Where does she sit? 1000m is perfect for her as proven by last prep win first up in the McEwen over Lankan Rupee. Ran an unlucky 4th in this race last prep as well and then a nose 2nd to Lankan Rupee in the Manikato. Trial was very good behind Lankan Rupee and infront of Srikandi and word around the traps is she is flying. Barrier an issue and they probably have to push back and ride for luck here.
8. Griante: First try at this distance and on past experience would think up in distance not down would be the more suitable option. Running well enough this prep but not well enough to win in this grade.
9. Miss Promiscuity: Good win in the Monash and then freshened and failed to impress that day. Good track should be more suitable for the horse I believe… will be ridden just off the pace from the barrier with a sit… produced a good enough run two back to suggest she could be in the finish. Win wouldn’t shock on her ability and trainer agrees.
10. Brook Road: Stable has a big opinion of her. I’m not as convinced but the proof will be in the pudding. Big jump in class here today.
11. Headwater: Old mate looks cooked after his two impressive wins in first prep. Couldn’t touch him.
12. Fontiton: First run after issues in the Blue Diamond when still stuck on for 5th. Looked a very very good horse in the preludes with devastating turn of foot. Awkward barrier but 51kg means you have to respect. Won at course and distance as a 2YO by 6 lengths in a 250k race… but did lead that day.
13. Petitis Filous: All you can do is beat what is put infront of you and she did that all four runs this prep on any surface. 51kg and will be pushing forward to sit just off the speed I’d imagine. Only real concern you would have is this type of profile and that last start run screams ‘flat run due’. Also not sure Glen Boss is the ideal rider for this type of run today with Oliver suspended.

Comments: I can understand why people are taking the $2.40 for the 51kg 3YO Petits Filous, but i can’t see it being a profitable strategy in the long term at the price. I think Miss Promiscuity is the value in the race at $40+ and may be worth a little bet from the gun barrier. Angelic Light would be a bet if they had drawn a better barrier, but i just can’t do it from that tricky spot. I’m in the same position with Flamberge. I think Flamberge should be clear 2nd favourite here but the barrier means you just can’t bet the horse. Ball of Muscle is a take on for mine, got the pace it wanted last start to get the win, it ain’t happening today. The only way i could approach this race at the prices is Buffering on the Each-Way. He is consistent as the day is long and you know he will handle the tempo and enjoy it, sticking on no matter what.
Confidence 60%
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 4, 6, 9, 12, 13
Strategy: Miss Promiscuity Each-Way.

Moonee Valley Race 8 – 1200m – Quest Moonee Valley Handicap
Gear Changes: Weinholt – Tongue Tie On
2. Daytona Grey: Last win was on a heavy track. Did place 3rd well beaten in 5 runner race two back behind Riziz in harder company… last start in easier was well beaten… 60kg.. concern.
3. Solsay: Horrible barrier today.. will have to push forward hard to get a slot with a large weight…. thought he ran nicely last start on speed 4th to Fell Swoop but that isn’t his game. His best ridden colder and let go from the 400m. No thanks.
4. Exodus: Found nothing first up at Caulfield as expected. Hard to suggest today on that first up run.
5. Kumaon: Best runs in the past were over further… although 2nd to Hallowed Crown over 1200m on Heavy was a peak run also… but heavy suggests further to me. Take on today.
6. Tawteen: Last start was too bad to believe. Back to 1200m today and back to track where she has won 4 from 6 with 2 other placing, you have to believe she can win this. Clear leader in race as well. Good record in this grade.
7. Coronation Shallan: Never own first up a concern and better over further. Does always run well at track.
8. Kaepernick: First up run did a lot wrong over racing and didn’t finish off. Have to forgive the first up run i feel, but he certainly hasn’t meausred up to this grade as being genuine just yet, so i can’t have him.
9. Running Bull: Very disappointing first up run at Pakenham when i thought he would show much more than that. Much harder here same distance similar weight and barrier will see him go back.
10. Tonopah: Finished off last prep being beaten favourite in town twice. Best over further.
11. Galaxy Pegasus: Geez you watch the last start run and all you can say is unlucky.. happens more often than not from that 1 back the rail position at Caulfield/MV. Barrier 8 today, expect him to have an easy enough time to get forward for a off the rails run 2-3 pegs back and to have every chance today. Has the ability.
12. Weinholt: Couldn’t touch him with 0 wins first up and his last prep runs were not even close to this grade.
13. Magical Pearl: Needs further to measure up to this grade of race based on last prep runs.

Comments:  Very keen to standout the two Hayes runners here in the last and to be backing both.
Confidence 90%
Quaddie Leg Four: 6, 11
Strategy: 1.1 units on Tawteen to win. 1 unit on Galaxy Pegasus to win. (Odds will be around $2.25 on best fixed currently)

Author

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The Profits

The Profits was first created in 2010 as a hub for owners Drew and Euan to share their knowledge. Since then, our team has expanded over the years, and we now have eight individual writers now employed to share their knowledge on specific sports. “Surround yourself with the dreamers and the doers, the believers and thinkers, but most of all, surround yourself with those who see the greatness within you, even when you don’t see it yourself.”

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