Welcome to The Profits preview for Day 3 of the Goodwood Carnival. The rain has arrived on Day 2 of the Goodwood Carnival as expected and it’s hard to imagine the ground firming up to be better than a Soft track for the rest of the carnival. There are just the two races on the day that give us the right types of horses and ratings to bet and we are very confident with what will most likely be the best bet for the carnival. Looking forward to continuing the Day 2 momentum. I hope your form matches up with mine. Good luck and happy punting.
Best Bet
Goodwood Race 4 – Winter – 5 units @ $2.87 to win
Goodwood Race 3 – Headway – 3 units @ $4.33 to win
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use for the basics – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.odds.com.au
Our results are updated daily here – Betting Spreadsheet
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Race 3 – Qatar Richmond Stakes – 1200m
Cardsharp is very hard to beat here today and while he has proved himself a strong horse last start with a 120 Timeform rating, the last three winners of this race have recorded 129, 131 and 126 ratings. Has to improve.
Headway is the top rating horse with a close 2nd at Ascot last start proving a strong 6f horse with a 124+ timeform rating effort. Started big odds on the day but can repeat that effort.
US Navy Flag continues to improve run on run this prep but a step back to a wetter surface doesn’t seem the difference maker on past runs. Has to improve.
Rest of the field rate below the very best to measure up to this top 3.
Comments: Very keen to be on Headway here having already produced a run last start good enough to win this and is expected to improve on from the run.
Confidence 85%
Strategy: Headway – 3 units @ $4.33 to win
Race 4 – Qatar Nassau Stakes – 2000m
Last five winners of race have averaged 127 with a 125 low and 129 top timeform rating.
Winter comes into this race with a career PB 130 Timeform rating and 127 last start winning well at Ascot and 128 three back showing her consistency. Steps up in distance again but clearly is a top class filly. Hard to beat.
So Mi Dar presents as a key challenger today with a 127P timeform rating and stats close and good enough to win this with French form.
Queen’s Trust ran a huge 127+ timeform rating last start at Ascot and while she has to improve, it’s not by a lot.
Finally, Nezwaah ran a race on a Good surface ready to match it with pretty much horse on her day.
Comments: Hard to pass up a superstar in the making in Winter at the nearly $3.00
Confidence 90%
Strategy: Winter – 5 units @ $2.87 to win.
