Goodwood Day 1 Form 26 July 2016

Horse Racing - Australia

It feels just like yesterday we were looking at the great racing from Royal Ascot… but here we are and Glorious Goodwood gets underway tonight. Slow and steady to start the carnival with just the two bets on the cards and both present strong betting opportunities in group races. Looking forward to a good carnival and as always, i hope your form matches up with mine. Good luck and happy punting!

Tools

Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use for the basics – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Our results are updated daily here – Betting Spreadsheet

Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.

Goodwood Race 2 – 1400m – Qatar Vintage Stakes Group 2
1. Boynton: Looked beaten last start when War Decree leveled up to him.. then he just kept finding! Can continue progressing onwards again today and looks very well placed again.
2. Hakeem: Looked a very good type when winning two runs back. Failed to fire last start and vet found no issues. Win wouldn’t be a total shock today.
3. Isomer: Strong win last start coming off a decent 2nd in listed grade at Ascot. Expect him to measure up again on the firmer track. Could be value.
4. Jackhammer: Nice enough win heading into this today on a much softer track. Disadvantage up to this grade back to firmer today. Struggle to suggest.
6. Medieval: Didn’t have to beat too much first run when won at Newbury. Last start well beaten at Ascot over the 1200m when 4th behind Caravaggio. Firmer track today could see him improve onwards, but certainly has to find that improvement to beat the best here.
7. Pleaseletmewin: Has been well placed heading into this today getting two wins from the past three starts. Expect a respectable run but I think these are just too good.
8. Repton: Two solid runs heading into this race today. Fairly beaten at Goodwood first up and then last start in easier grade got a win over some average types. Has to improve.
9. Thunder Snow: Fairly beaten last start on soft surface. Back to a firmer track today.. has been backed in suggesting he should be well suited.
10. War Decree: Good type. I thought he really had every chance last start when leveled up to Boynton but then failed to get past. Will be in the finish again.

Comments: I’m convinced even at the weight disadvantage that Boynton is the real deal and the better chance than War Decree today. The jockey switch is the key for mine.. I really feel that Doyle will get the extra out of him here. Isomer looks the value in the race.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Boynton for 1.25 units @ $4.30.

Goodwood Race 3 – 1400m – Qatar Lennox Stakes Group 2
1. Buckstay: Best run of prep was first up over 1400m. Last two starts well below his best runs. Best runs in the past have been on good surfaces.
2. Dutch Connection: Best run this prep was over 1600m first up on a softer surface. Last start run 2nd to Mutakayyef was no disgrace on a firm track though. Step back to 1400m shouldn’t be any disadvantage.
3. Home of the Brave: Last two starts have been his very best. On a similar surface last start recorded his best run to date with a strong Group 3 win over this distance. Can continue to improve third up today and looks well suited.
4. Markaz: The horse in this race with untapped ability. Last start back to 1200m ran a career peak and looks to have more to come on that run. Difference surface today though which is why he is much longer in the betting when up to 1400m. I think he is over the odds.
5. Tupi: Hasn’t shown his best since a Group 3 2nd over 1200m first up. Since then has been well beaten on every occasion. Last win was over 1600m.. hard horse to catch and best ratings still below what’s needed here.
6. Birchwood: Group 2 winner as a 2YO. Since then failed to fire until last start when won a Listed grade race on a soft track. Has to improve onwards again.
7. Dream Dubai: Hasn’t shown anywhere near strong enough form to suggest a win here.
8. Gifted Master: Well beaten two back at Haydock by a very good type in Quiet Reflection. Very poor run last start at Ascot. Has to be respected on best runs in the past.

Comments: I’m convinced Home of the Brave is a great bet here today. The horse has shown the consistency I want from a horse heading into another battle in this grade today and will be well suited by the firming track. Markaz looks the main danger at a very attractive price and I’m happy to bet on him also.
Confidence 85%
Strategy: Home of The Brave for 2 units @ $3.70. Markaz for 0.5 units at $9.80

Author

mm

The Profits

The Profits was first created in 2010 as a hub for owners Drew and Euan to share their knowledge. Since then, our team has expanded over the years, and we now have eight individual writers now employed to share their knowledge on specific sports. “Surround yourself with the dreamers and the doers, the believers and thinkers, but most of all, surround yourself with those who see the greatness within you, even when you don’t see it yourself.”

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