Horse Racing Form – Caulfield, Randwick, Eagle Farm and Morphetville – Saturday October 20

Horse Racing - Australia

Welcome to The Profits Caulfield Cup form. Caulfield is our local track so for us, this is our most anticipated race day of the year. We have some strong fields today, but apart from the main race, there are no super stars which will chuck up a lot of value winners. Good luck and happy punting!

Printable Form Guide for Caulfield
Download our ‘simple’ one-page PDF Form Guide to keep all our tips on you at the track.

Best Bet
Caulfield Race 6 HowMuchDoYouLoveMe

Next Best
Randwick Race 3 Offenders

Best Value
Caulfield Race 5 McClintock
Caulfield Race 9 New Beginning

Best Lays
1. Race 3 Honorius
2. Race 4 SummerBliss
3. *To Place* Race 8 Sneak a Peek

Betting Specials
Betfair is offering Best of 5 (instead of best of 4) this Saturday for Caulfield races. This means win bets will be paid the highest price of the three totes, official bookmaker’s SP or Betfair SP. Find out more here.

Betstar are offering DOUBLE fixed odds on all Group 1s this Spring including all five of today’s races. If you don’t have an account with Betstar but are going to join up please use the Referral code 23703. (Available from 8am on the day)

If you bet with Centrebet this Spring in Group 1 races, if your horse runs second to the favourite, they will refund your first losing bet (max of $100).

Sportingbet is offering Best Tote Exotics including Quaddies for Melbourne + Sydney meetings.

Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters Paradise – http://www.puntersparadise.com.au/form-guide/
Watch previous runs here – http://bigpondvideo.com/Horse_Racing
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports

Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means a speculation pick.

Caulfield Race 1
Villa Splendido was very poor at her first attempt over 1400m. Up 4kg again need to improve here.
Real Stolle not up to this.
Ciao may run a strong race but does look outclassed also.
Thunder Rain heavily up in class here and up in weight but decent form two back to Avas Delight and then won last start in an ok time on slow. Should go better over 1400m
Big 2nd up run from A Time For Julia who looks suited here today.
Burndiniburn is right in this on recent times and will go close.
Zoria disappointing last start in a much harder race. Expect to go forward today and show a bit more. Can run a solid time.
Triquetra time not fast enough here.
Catered looks outclassed.
Easy to Look At is Outclassed
Confidence 70%

Caulfield Race 2
Pronto Pronto was very solid leading start to finish at Flemington on the weekend. A very hard straight to lead all the way down and will improve from that run. The time was very solid.
Daytona Grey comes into this off two nice wins in times on dead surfaces. Just keeps improving.
Steep returned with a fairly average run firs tup and will need to improve on that here.
Limes was strong first up and meets Pronto Pronto 2.5kg better off. Losing by 0.5L, this could be the difference.
Magnier is a super horse with solid form lines. Comes in well weighted and will be there at the end.
Crystal Web is bread to win but didn’t show enough last start.
Swift Sucession needs to improve here to have a chance on last run.
Divine Moon a huge first up run 3rd behind Kabayan. Weighted to win here.
Al Aneed no chance today.
Royal Rada outclassed.
Cleansing Ale has some ok times but does look to be needing an easier race.
Confidence 70%

Caulfield Race 3
Philippi being scratched throws a spanner in the works.
Kabayan was super last start over the 1500m and comes into this as a deserved favourite. There is a big question mark if the horse will run out the 200m as it has never gone beyond the 1600m. It should handle the distance no problems but off 58kg, will want to be sure at the price.
Jimando put in a very solid run last start out the front at Flemington. Down 2.5kg for the run and the shorter straight should suit.
Honorius can be forgiven for last start in a much harder race than this. On best form can go close.
Hvasstan was very unlucky not to win last start when they decided to ride cold from the back. Expecting them to go a little more forward today at Caulfield and will be given every chance.
Right to Roam was solid last start but Jimando meets it much better at the weights.
Subiaso needs to improve here.
Electric Fusion was super impressive first up at Moonee Valley but that was a maiden race and this is much harder.
Costa Nova can be forgiven for last start and look two back when 1L behind Hvasstan. Will run a solid race.
Confidence 80%

Caulfield Race 4
Donna Cattiva not up to this.
Transonic was strong last start in a much easier race. Needs to improve 2-3L here.
Cameo has some strong form lines with 1.5L behind Maybe Discreet last start. Weighted to win.
Ireland’s Teardrop can be forgiven for last run and look to two back when sensational.
Nextess out of Moody yard looks way outclassed here on times.
Operation Twist not up to this on last run.
Kate looks more suited to lesser distances
Alzora no chance on times.
Keep De Rose rates well but the times don’t paint a pretty picture.
Madam Archer’s maiden win was quite solid. Looks to be wanting longer distances.
Summerbliss won very easy first up in a average tempo maiden. Could test these.
Ten black outclassed here.
Di Lusso out of this on times and previous runs.
Zaparella outclassed
Gondokoro an interesting runner here. Has some quality in it but does look outclassed here.
Confidence 86%

Caulfield Race 5
This is one of the best betting races for the day in our eyes.
Tagus is safely held in this class off the 57.5kg.
Stike The Stars not the worst resuming last start but never won over 1400m.
Galah was solid first up at Flemington and has a good second up record. Issue once again is the weight and needs to make up more than 2L on King’s Rose.
King’s Rose is a classy mare and is weighted well here off a solid run last start. The issue we have is that this race won’t be run with that stupid tempo you saw last start. Will certainly have a big run but the question is if she can put in the sectionals late.
Happy Zero was quite solid first up and on previous form can go close here today. Weighted well.
McClintock was absolutely super first up and beaten by a very good horse in Miss Marx. Will run the tempo a little slower today and be very hard to run down. Only upside backing up on that run.
Shadowfax not classy enough this prep.
Mister Milton looking for lesser races.
Renewed Vitality has put in some decent runs recently. Does actually look ok weighted but does need to find a few more lengths. Never won this class from 10 starts.
Full of Spirit solid first up behind Mosheen coming from the back. Still is looking for more distance than the 1400m.
Whateverwhenever very good first up run. Will improve here today.
Confidence 80%

Caulfield Race 6
Mid Summer Music didn’t handle the pace in the race first up and is up 3.5kg from that run. Looks to be wanting further than the 1100m but does have the class to run well.
Green Birdie could run a very good race today. Has slowly progressed this prep and was blocked for a run behind Buffering last start.
Thankgodyou’rehere a nice run behind Buffering also but does look like needs to improve again here today.
Canali form line in this race most likely won’t hold up.
Curtana can be forgiven for first run. Look to this run for improvement.
FreeReturn is overs in this race. Down to a weight that suits and in a grade that he has won previously. 1 win 1 place on the track and from barrier 4 will sit nicely. Go close.
Howmuchdoyouloveme is a super horse resuming today. Times are very strong and weighetd to win.
Metallurgical needs to improve again today here and happy to be against.
Altar another here resuming that has solid form lines but times don’t stack up for us.
Latin News down to Melbourne will find this hard.
Stanzout very solid first up but this is much harder.
Confidence 90%

Caulfield Race 7
Prairie Star comes into this race with some solid French form. Has won this class twice before from 9 runs and is weighted strongly. 2 wins 2 places over the 2000m and goes any ground surface. Can go close once again here from barrier 4.
Bagman was super disappointing last start and looks like will find this even harder today with a quality field. Happy to be against.
Extra Zero safely held.
Shewan returned in poor form this prep. Can’t have here.
Lightinthenite solid form behind Fat Al but up 2.5kg for that run but will certainly go close. Never gone 2000m which is issue.
Maules Creek doesn’t seem classy enough on last few runs but is well at the weights.
Dame Claire is a super price here today. Better over the 2400m+ but 2000m does suit on last two runs. Weighted to win and was super unlucky last start.
Proliferate needs to have trained on for a chance today.
Pacino a strong 2000m run last prep but that was in much easier class. Hard here.
Waterford hill not good enough here.
Confidence 80%
Quaddie leg one: 1, 5, 8

Caulfield Race 8 – BMW Caulfield Cup
Americain always runs a strong race but the last two runs he put down were very poor. Off the 58kg, this is a very hard race to win. We are happy to be against Americain today.
Dunaden has been running very well recently and on the 2nd to Sea Moon two runs back, if reproduces that run, is right in this on times and ratings. Ignore last start when heavy weight was made to lead. A big chance.
Jakkalberry has some very average form lines. Jumped at $67-1 against Dunaden in Hong Kong in December of last year and since then has not finished within 3.8L of winning in a classy race like this with the only win an Open Race in the US. Needs to improve big time here for a chance but we don’t see it.
Winchester simply not classy enough. Not enough on first two runs in Australia.
December Draw will put in a solid run but when you consider the last two runs, he just doesn’t seem to have the turn of foot when jumped $3.30 favourite here last year. This also looks much classier than last year and the internationals look more game here today.
Voila Ici is one of the most interesting runners. Two very good first up runs and will improve again up in distance. I think for this horse to have a chance they need to take a sit today but chances are he will take the rail or sit outside of Glencadam Gold. Will certainly be staying on at the end on times.
Sanagas outclassed here.
Glencadam Gold comes into this race with some very solid times under his belt off 53.5kg. The barrier draw does hurt but there is no other speed horse in the race aprat from Voila Ici and we suspect the race won’t be run overly fast. He can go to the front and control the speed and launch late. His sectionals last start were sensational and will be hard to run down. The price two weeks ago was horrible but is now backable.
My Quest For Peace is one of the few runners here that has a huge hope of winning. 53.5kg is an absolute gift for this horse that has been running off 57kg and even 62.5kg. The issue is that My Quest For Peace hasn’t impressed recently. The win two back over this distance was when there was absolutely NO speed in the race. That race won run on a Good track in more than 12 seconds longer than Glencadam Gold’s last up win. Before that, the horse failed in WFA-G1,G2 in much faster times. My Quest will get a dream run from the barrier but the issue is if it will handle the pace.
Niwot doesn’t seem to be suited here. Hasn’t shown enough this prep.
Lights of Heaven is a very interesting runner. Was a super win in a very strong time last run last prep in Group 2 company over the 2400m. Showed enough last start to suggest she can go close but suspect may find a few too classy. Still, has a great shot.
Secret Admirer just keeps running solid races but has never ran at this distance so suspect won’t handle it.
Sneak a Peek is the most over-rated horse in this race. People have backed it hard into this race when the form lines are poor. We are giving Jakkalberry little to no chance so Sneak gets none here laso.
Alcopop has not shown near enough to be considered here today. Ignore last start when ran on in a race that ran to suit. That was a  small 6 horse field which meant he got to sit within 2-3L. Today he will sit 10L back like the previous three runs this start. He is not classier than Dunaden or Americain who will be coming from equally far back.
Moudre needs to show a lot more than last start to be considered and didn’t show enough over 200m to consider here.
Folding Gear is a super interesting runner. Showed a lot last start and from barrier four can push forward to be in a position to launch late. 52kg suits and the times of his win were impressive enough for you to consider.
Zabeelionaire no chance. Has not shown anything since the 2500m 3Y Group 1 win over Sabrage and would need 46-47kg to be considered.
Sabrage is the first emergency and with Southern Speed just getting scratched gets a run. Sabrage has very little chance in this race. Is weighted nicely but on previous runs seems outclassed.
Gatewood is now a chance to get a run with Americain still a chance of being scratched and has a good chance of winning. The form lines are simply solid and the weight is the big issue that makes you look Gatewood’s way. Don’t expect them to run.
Finally, Fictional Account off the 50kg if a miracle happens and she gets a run is actually a very good chance. Ran home solidly over the 2500m two back in 2:36.5 which is a very solidly run race and from barrier 7 could be there at the finish.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie leg two: 2, 6, 9, 10, 22

Caulfield Race 9
Mosheen was back in fine form last start at Flemington and my feeling is that she wants the Flemington straight to settle down and complete her run. May not find best today.
Streama a nice run first up and back down in class here today. 3 from 4 at distance and will be hard to beat if positions well.
Pear Tart should improve on first up run today up 1.5kg. 3/3 at distance. Needs to improve.
Red Tracer was very solid first up in Sydney and comes down here well weighted back in class. Barrier 3 to suit and will be VERY hard to beat today.
Raspberries not good enough today.
Hi Belle can be forgiven for last start run and if you do, is in with a big chance.
Miss StellaBelle super run last start but meets Mosheen 0.5kg worse off today (no idea how). Will once again control a nice strong tempo and be there at the end.
Appearence a solid firs tup run and could improve here.
Rememba Howe returns today and has some solid form lines from NZ. Question is if she is only a wet tracker or not.
Shannara outclassed on last run.
Soft Sand just keeps missing the start and getitng blocked for runs. Hard to have it here today.
Lucky Penny has some very solid form lines and just does enough to win. Ignore last start when didn’t handle a heavy ground. Weighted well enough to win today.
New Beginning is the value of the race coming down from New South Wales. Barrier suits and will go super close.
Rahveel seems otuclassed at this distance.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie leg three: 1, 2, 3, 4, 12, 13

Caulfield Race 10
Serene Star was super last start and gets 3kg on that run. Will need to progress once again here today. Has a chance but the weight will hurt.
Lady Melksham is a horse with quality for days but needs to come back with big improvement today to have a chance.
Mrs Onassis comes down from Sydney with strong form lines. Can run a very solid race.
Royal Bender has probably the best form lines coming into thisr ace. Ignore two back loss at Morphetville in a very fast 1100 and look to last run behind Miss Marx. Can improve on that run from barrier 9 today.
Rosie’s Reward needs to improve to have a chance today.
Glows has had a few set backs this prep. Barrier 10 hurts but has the class.
Follonica a solid win first up this prep. Big step up in class.
Flash of Doubt a solid horse who just keeps running nice races. Will be there at the end.
Off and Laughing not classy enough on previous form but has gone very close to some of the favourites here.
City of Song resuming a big unknown. Look three back and repeat that run and the horse can win it. Williams on board tells you they think it is fit and ready to go.
Tres Vite Needs to improve big time here to win today.
Sweet Little Lies a solid horse but looks outclassed off the weight.
Lady Antebellum slowly away and blocked for run last start was the run of the race in a much easier race. Has won in this class before and is 1/1 2nd up. Has the ability.
Diamond Lady outclassed.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie leg four: 1, 2, 3, 4, 10, 13

Randwick Race 1
Save your money and look towards the classier races.

Radwick Race 2
A very open race.
Ignore last start of Urgent Bells and look to three previous runs. Comes into this VERY well weighted and will run a very solid race.
Elusive Lad has some very solid times and will be hard to run down.

Randwick Race 3
Offenders was super the last two starts and just keeps on improving. Back down in class big time and the form lines around Rolling Pin and Lightinthenite are super strong.
Moriarty will be the one to watch after beating Keiths Legacy two back. Weighted to win.

Randwick Race 4
Snitsky was super last start winning in much harder class than this. Forgive two back run beaten by a MUCH better horse in Strawberry Boy who would beat these by 3L. Will be hard to beat today.
Mon Soleil keeps producing quality runs and will be there at the end off 57kg.
Hard Liquor on two back run will be solid.
Tenby Lady a big unknown first start in Australia.

Randwick Race 5
With the short priced favourite scratched here this is wide open.
Ichihara is a game horse with a lot of quality but the form lines around Jolie Bay and Medusa’s Miss are hard to ignore!
Our best in Medusa’s Miss was just scratched so Jolie Bay becomes our pick on form lines.

Randwick Race 6
Dare to Dream down 5kg here and was a big run last start over the 2000m.
Less Is More was very solid last start. Down 5kg here and looks suited.
Forgive last start of Crafty Irna and goes very close here today.

Randwick Race 7
Hot Snitzel comes in very strongly here today. Super first up record and will run very solidly. Big issue is the 59kg.
Zaratone on best form last start can win this. Ran a very solid Group 3 win at 1100 at Rosehill and does go very well first up. Don’t dismiss from barrier 4.
Welkom Gold will be going forward and on best form can go close here.
Dee’N’Gee’s last run was much better than form shows. Slowly coming back into form and form lines are rock hard.

Randwick Race 8
Angel Of Mercy has the class to win this race. Goes well at the distance, weighted nicely and has won at class. Will continue on this prep.

Morphetville Race 5
Ignore last start of Classy Chloe and look two back second to Detours. Will go forward today, control the speed and has the quality to hold these out.
The Eighth Maker is the only threat here with some quality runs this prep.

Eagle Farm Race 2
Attica on the weights looks the value runner today. Saint Encosta is the main danger.

Eagle Farm Race 6
Gunner Knox some huge form lines. 1.8L behind Solzhenitsyn three back. Unlucky not to win last start and down 2.5kg for equal class here today. On best wins.

Eagle Farm Race 7
Grey Assignment is simply flying at the moment. Weighted well here and good over any distance. Hard to beat from barrier 4. Bid Spotter the main danger and is a saver.

Eagle Farm Race 8
Jughalation in good form. Up to 1200m and will find a strong run once again. Hard to beat.

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The Profits

The Profits was first created in 2010 as a hub for owners Drew and Euan to share their knowledge. Since then, our team has expanded over the years, and we now have eight individual writers now employed to share their knowledge on specific sports. “Surround yourself with the dreamers and the doers, the believers and thinkers, but most of all, surround yourself with those who see the greatness within you, even when you don’t see it yourself.”

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