An absolute shocker of a day. There is no doubt about it. When three of your top picks from eight races are scratched before the day starts, it’s never a good thing. We will be going back and reviewing this week how we have preformed after having a scratched runner. This may be an area we remove from our betting strategy as in the Handcut race we had it one out and put up and went on something we had next best.. just because it was scratched. The first two races didn’t work out at all for us. The first race was won by a horse we gave every chance but was big unders.. until the price it drifted to on the jump where it was about right. The pace up front was too strong and they burnt all their energy early. Race two our horse did the same thing once again, too hard too early. Race three we got it right that Rue Maple couldn’t handle the 60kg and something would beat it but we weren’t confident on this race after losing our toppie. Turn It Up finally got a win and started very short… Langridge Street was very underwhelming and crafty cruiser was given a bad ride. Nothing else went well for the day until our late pick at $20 in Lethal Arrow at Rosehill being our only winner for the day. We toted it up earlier in the week and it finally produced for us after sticking strong on it the last few runs. Onto next week.
Horse Racing Form – Caulfield, Rosehill and Sunshine Coast – Saturday 30 June 2012
Welcome to The Profits 30 June 2012 Form. Last week was one to forget after starting with a winner and not finding a winner until the last. Each week on a Sunday we post up our review in the Saturday form post and share our views on what went right and what went majorly wrong. Last week it was all down to weight. Nothing with a big weight won all day and a lot of our picks were heavily weighted. We noticed this around race 5 and tried to adjust in play.. posting up being very keen on our pick in the last who was off a very low weight. We will be on track at Caulfield on Saturday so there won’t be as many posts as normal on Twitter. Good luck and happy punting!
*Caulfield Race 7 – Manhattan Maid*
SCRATCHED – *Caulfield Race 5 – Handcut* – SCRATCHED – will line up tomorrow at R6 at Ballarat.. back it there.
*Rosehill Race 8 – Gazza Guru*
Bet Value Bet
*Flemington Race 2 – Day Procedure*
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters Paradise – http://www.puntersparadise.com.au/form-guide/
Watch previous runs here – http://bigpondvideo.com/Horse_Racing
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means a speculation pick.
Caulfield Race 1
Starting the day with an open race.
The ‘class’ in this race are the top two picks.
Vatican comes into this up 3kg after winning a strong class, distance and track race at $7 (we picked him that day).. Barrier 11 is an issue but should overcome this and run well.
Le Societe is a horse that should go very well. When you look at it’s form.. you see a 4.3L win over Roses In The Glen first up.. followed by a win over Crucial and then 4th jumping $2.5fav being beaten by Shopaholic (only 1.3L off). This is a much easier race so if she comes back well here, will be hard to hold out.
Lovemelongtime is a VERY interesting runner. Won 3.8L last up and is down 1.5kg for that run in equal class. The horse that came 2nd came out last week and won beating a handy horse called Rushworth at Flemington. This form is RED HOT. Will be suited by the ground from barrier 2 and take a sit near the front. The other main factor to look at is that two of last 3 runs have been winners and they were on Heavy and Slow. Expecting a slow ground to start the day so will suit.
Loveyamadly also comes into this race with some big form. Beating home Lady Antebellum by 2.8L on her last start, if you rate Lady Antebellums runs including beating home Soft Sand, then you rate this form.
Finally, Cavallo Nero won a much easier race by 4L in a 9 horse field. Back to a much harder race here but should run well.
Confidence Factor: 70%
Caulfield Race 2
Flamberge has put in two big runs in his first two races winning both on a Heavy and Slow track. Times are fairly solid and back down to lowest weight after claim. Will be hard to beat but will need to not get caught with no where to go from barrier 1.
Haussmann is a good horse but seems to just find one too good most times it runs. Is very much disadvantaged in this race due to 59kg on it’s back. Will be there at the end but feel the weight will keep him from winning.
Day Procedure jumped out of the ground last start and comes into this down 3.5kg in equal class after a 2L win in a 12 horse field at Flemington. Produced a impressive 34.15 sectional which would be good enough to win this. Starts from barrier 2 so will be very hard to beat.
If you give Flamberge a chance then you have to respect King Krovanh who is in with a chance. May just be weighted out of it as up 1kg on last run.
Finally, we look at Elite Elle. This horse has been massively backed during the week and won it’s first two races impressively. It has to be said, that this is a harder race and as good as she has been, i’m not convincedthat she should be this price.
Confidence Factor: 75%
Caulfield Race 3
Rue Maple has NEVER won a race of this class but went very close last start 0.3L 4th. Up 7kg from that last run though!?! Just looks simply weighted out of this so we will look elsewhere.
Let’s Be Happy didn’t produce anything first or second up but is a horse that slowly works into form. Is this the race she does it? I don’t think so off 58kg. Does have a nice record in class and distance but others better.
Pyrenees Express has been a horse toated up with potential. Down to 51kg (5kg down from last run), she has every chance here. She is 6 years old but seems to be producing her best runs this prep. Not sure on tactics but can win from the front or middle.
Legion’s Belle is a horse we were keen on last start but didn’t produce much and underwent a vet exam after the race. Expect a better effort here.
Not sure what to make of Light Express’s form. Won a 14 horse race by 1.5L then a 8 horse race by 4L and comes into this with a big hope. Times are sound sectionals are good and is out of barrier 4 with breeding of Fastnet Rock. Expecting a bold run.
Spurcific and Charlottes MInt both have similar formline and down in weight. Both similar times last start. Not really keen on either on form.
Confidence Factor: 55% – Our No.1 pick was scratched and we were not keen on anything else in this race. Legion’s Belle could run well but this is a hard race to pick now.
Caulfield Race 4
Crafty Cruiser ran a very valid 3rd last week with Steaky Fella just getting away from all of them. Not sure if the step down in distance will help or hinder… but considering 16 runs without a win.. but 7 places.. they are willing to try take him down to this distance for a chance. Gets every opportunity here.
Another horse today which people have taked up is You Think So. Has been off for 3 months spelling after a disappointing last up prep and this is a BIG step up in class. 54kg is a winable mark but we are happy to avoid here having never won a race at this distance. Should be in the placings.
Langridge Street ran an impressive race last up. Don’t discredit the run behind My Bentley who was due for a win. May be suited more by the shorter straight and should get an easy run up front.
Turn It Up is somehow up 1kg from last start run. Caulfield is a better track for him and has won here before. 6 runs at distance for 6 places. Barrier 4 will suit.
Paddy O’Reilly wasn’t the worst first up at Flemington over 1400 and will be much better over the 2000m. Last win was here on dead over distance in a Group 3 race so don’t discount.
Confidence Factor: 65%
Caulfield Race 5
Platelet won well last start at Flemington. Up 0.5kg to 59kg and back onto a track that doesn’t seem to suit after two recent placings. Barrier 11 will mean she has to work hard early to get over to lead up.
Roses In The Glen is a horse with big potential and looked far below her best last start. Ran very well two runs here at Caulfeild and this run should be the judge not the previous run. From barrier 7 expecting them to not try and lead up and take a sit and come back. Should be there at the finish.
This is a much harder race for Gig today. Won well first up at Flemington but on weights doesn’t appeal. Will surely run a good race but just not liking the odds at all.
Spanski is well treated here off 51kg after claims and should factor. Gains 3.5kg on Platelet and barrier 3 to get the gun run. Will factor into this race for sure. Especially if the ground clears up.
We made no secret that we were keen on Handcut today on twitter all week. Down 3kg to 51kg compared to last start 1.3L behind Platelet making her 3.5kg better off overall. Barrier 4 is good for the horse also. Everything seems suited for a big run here today. We got on at $21 but $16 is still appealing. The wetter the track gets, the better the 51kg horses will run. *UPDATE* Handcut scratched.
Confidence Factor: 70%
Caulfield Race 6
This is a very open race with many chances.
Let’s start with one that was put up on @GetOnTVN on Thursday night as a get on by @RTRalphy in Lord Wimble. Has never run in this class or on this track. Has never won over this distance and has only won one of it’s last 6 runs. It was beaten by Ebony Rock by 16L 4 runs back. Positives, Won two runs back in a Much easier race and then 2nd (2.8L loss still!) in a lesser race last start. This horse has been backed in from $13 best price on totes to $7. The bookies are rubbing their hands together. I am happy to take this horse on. The only thing at it’s advantage is the 54kg on it’s back. Good luck to it.
Gold Sand has gone backwards his last two starts. Produced a nice winning run in a field lacking quality three runs back at course. If produces similar can win but not very keen on this happening on last two efforts.
Ignore Cosmic Causeway‘s last start and rate on previous two runs where blocked for runs both times and still won. One of these being at Course, Distance and Conditions. Big hope here with Nolen back on board.
The form around Streets Away – LATE SCRATCHING is compelling for this race with a 1.5L 4th behind Ginga Dude who has produced big time since that run. Strike away previous two runs over longer distances and look at 1600 form and you see a good strike rate. 56kg is fair and will run into this well. Handles any condition track.
Royal Mail is a ‘family favourite’ Won 4 of 9 last start and loves to run well. The only problem with this horse is that it doesn’t seem to enjoy a ground that isn’t good. This could have changed since it’s prep but we doubt it. We like the horse but on a dead or worse track, we are looking elsewhere.
Ebony Rock is up in class in this race, there is no doubt about that but shouldn’t be laughed off with only 51kg on his back. Went awfully close with 54.5kg on his back two back in equal class and has placed on this track in his only start here. Won 3 of 5 on slow so likes it wet. Will go well as long as they run it more forward this run.
Forty Thirty is treated well on the weights with nothing on it’s back but form doesn’t stack up for us.
Cosmic Fury 7 years old and first run at Caulfield. Has been producing nice runs and 54kg is solid but can’t see it winning this.
Finally, Little Pablo hasn’t been the worst thing going around. Down 4kg. Could run a sneaky top 4.
Caulfield Race 7
Manhattan Maid – We forgive you. Well, not really. We were on Club Command last start when Manhattan Maid was beaten by 1.5L. Truth me told, she travelled horribly and just didn’t want to go the final 300m yet still stayed on for 2nd. DOWN in class and down 1kg after a claim, this form will hold up very well. Enjoys a slow or dead track so conditions won’t matter. Think the step up in distance won’t phase her.
Sussuro hasn’t been far away in her last five starts. Has been up against some quality horses and just keeps running well. Weighted around the 55kg mark as normal and enjoys the distance.
Ignore last start for The Long Road. Was weighted out of it. Look two races back to 0.8L behind Andromache who has continued on with winning form. Down to 52.5kg on the back, she is weighted to win this. Only problem will be if the ground is letting them swoop. One to certainly watch for.
Another horse down to an almost careeer low weight is Orchard Street off 53kg. Last few runs have been a mixed bag with a 0.1L loss in much easier class and 1.8L loss at caulfield the best runs. Needs to produce a lot more to win here.
Charlie’s Queen was another toted up as a best of the day by experts and the form is strange. Has not finished within 4.5L in the last 5 runs and is up in class. DOwn to 52kg is an advantage but can’t have it on this form.
Vihanna Victory is a horse very much suited here. Off 51kg with a claim, has won two of last five with a 1.3L 2nd and 0.4L 4th in there also. This is a big step up in class but on the weights can run a solid race to factor.
Finally, I’m not sure how to place Slippery Satin here. Has won 1 and placed 3 times from 5 starts at distance. First time in class and off 52kg. Ran a solid 4th at Caulfield first time here last year so can handle the track. Does have wet form and times are fairly solid. Could factor in the race.
Confidence Factor: 85%
Caulfield Race 8
My gut says Pacino over 1200m has no chance but my heart says that the old fella can produce something unexpected here. Nikolic booked on board just gives me the feeling they aren’t playing around. Barrier 2 means a gun sit run and when you look at form, last two runs in R86 and R95 were 0.1L and 0.8L loses. Don’t leave him out!
Rebel Truce is a serious contender here. Verdasco who he beat home two back won a good race last week at Flemington. Won last two and this is a step up with weight on his back but course should be helping swoopers late.
Hotham Heights just keeps producing. Within 1.5L the last four runs with one win in there at Caulfield off 0.5KG more. May be suited more by a Dead track than Slow.
Inablitz will run a good race as always. Hasn’t won in the last six rides but has gone close here. Off 59kg.. looks a little hard.
Jughlation‘s last run is severely underrated by most experts. Jumped at $2 and won by 3.3L leading all the way. Form previous to that is 0.8L, 1L and 0.4L off winning so was due a good run. Very winable race.
Oregon Spirit has a huge prep last up with 3 wins and x2 0.1L losses in his last two rides before spelling. A MV specalist.. will enjoy the short straight at Caulfield. Times are all sound and likes it wet. Out of Moody yard so keep an eye on it.
Finally, Lonhreign is a good horse who has been running solid races also. Not sure if this is his best distance but put in here for a reason. Nolen not on board means they probably are just giving him a run out.
Confidence Factor: 70%
Rosehill Race 2
Bello was bold last start 1.3L behind Eucumbene who we rate HIGHLY. Down 0.5kg after claim and in a weaker race, looks suited here. Was about 1.5L clear of anything else behind it and should just simply win.
Confidence Factor: 75%
Rosehill Race 3
Fairly keen on a horse in this race called Fastnet Prince. Won it’s maiden 5 runs back by 8L. Following two races didn’t run well (Vet exam) and then lost a plate. After those two runs it won by 8L in a 12 horse race on GOOD track over 2000 and then 3.8L in a 5 horse race. Will try and lead all the way once again and it has a great chance here. Only concern is the 59kg on it’s back but winning form is good form.
Confidence Factor: 60%
Rosehill Race 7
A handy horse called One Way Ticket is resuming in this race. 8 years old, this old fella has a brilliant last prep 0.2L behind Wazn three back with two other strong runs after that. Comes into this off 56.5kg which is fine.. if has trained on well can produce a big run at big odds.
Confidence Factor: 50%
Rosehill Race 8
Looking for a get out horse? Gazza Guru in the last it is! Starting with 57kg after the claim, the only thing that stopped it last start was the horrible ground. Look tot eh run two back where it beat home TWO very handy horses who went on and won after that race and the form is sound. Will run very well.
The other horse we really like here is Lethal Arrow. Has been looking for a winable race and this is it. Off 56kg which is fair, won his last race leading start to finish off this weight in similar rated class. Will try and lead it at a pace that suits.
Confidence Factor: 78%
Sunshine Coast Race 5
Diet put in a huge run last week in the final race of the day at Ipswich to win leading start to finish. This is a stronger race but from barrier 4 will get the same dream run and should put in a solid run. Breeding suggests may find best over this distance.
You also can’t look past Double Impact who was 1.3L behind Pear Tart two back and being beaten 4L by Mental last start is nothing to be ashamed of. Solid form and will be there at the end.
Sunshine Coast Race 6
Jetset Lad was just simply unlucky last start and should have won. If jumps well just simply wins this. 1kg better off than last meeting with Belltone and suited by extra 50m.
Phelan Ready is due to run a good race so one to watch.
Confidence Factor: 75%
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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