Welcome to the Racing write up for Saturday. The Best Bet last week in African Pulse won easy and our three lays came in. Our value bet was fairly poor and the twitter tips all went well with profits all around! We might be heading down to Caulfield to soak up the atmosphere today so there may be fewer tweets than usual. As always, this is only a guide and you should combine your own form with our thoughts if you are placing a wager. Confidence factors are very important in our write ups and most of all remember that if we put down two horses in a race to have a bet on, that means we are on both. Good luck and happy Punting!
Best Bet
Caulfield Race 4 – Samaready $2.40
Best Value
Rosehill Race 6 Social Rank $10/$2.80
Best Lays
1. Caulfield Race 3 The Travelling Man
2. Caulfield Race 4 Elite Elle
3. Caulfield Race 6 Heart of Dreams
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters Paradise – http://www.puntersparadise.com.au/form-guide/
Watch previous runs here – http://bigpondvideo.com/Horse_Racing
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means a speculation pick.
Caulfield Race 1
Budai would need to improve head and shoulders above what it has previous shown to be considered here.
Yulaona ran on well last start and will appreciate the extra 200m trip. Does go well on a heavy track but get the feeling will find something better than him here.
OurForeignMinister first up in Australia after winning a 1600m on Heavy recently. Happy to risk this horse. Does go well on heavy but never won at distance and this looks a step up.
Oak Heart was a lay for us last week and we simply got him wrong. We got luck that he didn’t win. He loved the wet track and will enjoy the extra wetness today. Down to 53.5kg is very suitable.. will go close.
StoneBlack has been going backwards recently. Ran well on a heavy 10 three runs back but suspect will find some too good here.
Moulin Bleu ran a terrific race last start but just couldn’t last it out. Down to 51kg and on a course with a shorter straight, you get the feeling he could lead from start to finish here. Big shot!
Rowland comes into this with a shot similar to that of Yulalona, just don’t think either have the quality to win this.
Confidence 75%
Got this race fairly wrong. Budai improved beyond it’s previous runs for a nice second and Rowland found a little extra with a late burst to win. Moulin Bleu spent too much gas early and Oak Heart strangely didn’t handle the ground. Only positive is that we were really keen to be against Yunalona here and Yuna finished 4th.
Caulfield Race 2
Let’s Be Happy ran on better last start than normal and down in class finds herself 1kg better off. Could run well but hasn’t shown enough for us to be winning this.
Rememba Howe is VERY interesting. First up in Australia with the Price yard. Has been here a few weeks. Concern is that the horse has never won at this distance.. although has won at 1200 and 1600 so probably not a massive concern. Weighted nicely here and does seem to handle a Heavy track. Can’t discount.
Total Attraction finished strongly last start and will be better for the run. Big concern with the ground today as she has never ran on Slow or Heavy track so big ????? here. Does enjoy track with 1 run 1 win.
My Chicharita looks to be a nice Mare who is looking for longer distances than the 1400m. Been spelled quite a few months which is interesting but can’t touch here.
Thy is a hugely interesting runner here. Spelled for four months out of the Moody yard ran behind Mosheen two back 4th and 1.5L 3rd behind Streama. Breeding suggests will run well on Heavy and won at 1600m last prep so 1400m shouldn’t be a problem.
Really not sure how to place Chateau in this race. No wet form, won 1 from 3 at distance and first run at Caulfield. Seems to be well weighted and has some nice form. Should run well.
Princess Diablo was disappointing last start on Heavy. Weighted well and could surprise and go close but doubt she will handle the ground today.
Finally, Tranquera comes into this race with some nice form with seconds behind Bonaria and Belzera.
Confidence 60%
Ding ding ding. Thy wins at $12 to get the day off to a great start. Moody knew what he was doing here. You do have to question the tactics of the Total Attraction Ride.. was pretty horrible but suited us. Rememba Howe went a little too wide too early coming to the turn and couldn’t ever come into it doing that. The horse we couldn’t place but knew would run well in Chateau ran a very solid race 2nd.
Caulfield Race 3
Not very keen this race at all.
Underestimation certainly shouldn’t be underestimated here. Won very well last start off 0.5kg more in similar class over 1400m on a Heavy track at Flemington. Runs well between 1000-1400 so the distance shouldn’t matter here. Expect him to go very close.
The Travelling Man was fairly disappointing last start on the Slow ground at Caulfield. Expect he won’t handle the heavy ground and am happy to be against here.
Cheyenne Warrior won a fairly average race 2nd up race last start in a very poor time. Won’t get the same easy run up front today.
Not sure what to make of General Rippa. Won very well first up but next two runs horrible. Doesn’t look like he is looking for the heavy ground either.
Planet Voyage keeps putting in strong runs but last start found the 1200m too far on the ground. Back to 1100 should go well from barrier two. The 2kg down also helps.
Psychic Mick has some nice form but this is a step up in class for sure. Times says will be competitive.
Free of Doubt ran very well last start. Could improve even further here.
Confidence 65%
Underestimation was taken to the back instead of going forward like speedmaps and recent form suggested. The form also showed the horse never going close if going back. To be fair, did run on well late but never in it with tactics not working to plan. Planet Voyage was solid for 2nd but Psychic Mick got a very easy run and was way too strong in the end. The positive is we wrote off The Travelling Man who didn’t handle the ground as we expected. He was the market mover into something like $3.80 pre-race.
Caulfield Race 4
I am so keen to see this race run. Samaready is a superstar and it was a pleasure to see her run last year. Very unlucky in the Golden Slipper and came with a massive run from the back. Loves the Caulfield Track and Newitt knows how to ride her well. As long as she gets a good position and not trapped on the rails, will be very hard to hold out.
Elite Elle is one of the horses with a chance at the upset. Has won on Heavy over 1010 previous and won other two runs. This is a big step up in class for her here though and times don’t seem good enough to me.
Lady of Harrods last up win was decent in a nice time. Will need to go hard early to get across. Could run well.
Bloomingdale Miss won very well last start but this is another step up and is outclassed here.
Agueda is a big threat here. Can run well forward and has some good times behind quality runners. Weighted well.
Confidence 90%
Got this one hugely wrong. If you read our review we were quite keen on Samaready, the main reason was that we didn’t expect Price to run Sama if she wasn’t able to handle the ground. Something certainly didn’t look right and most likely didn’t handle the Heavy. Agueda was our second pick in the race and nearly got there but sadly for us, Elite Elle who we had up as a lay, got home and won.
Caulfield Race 5
Launay is an interesting runner here. 2 wins 2 places from 5 starts at distance and has won 1 placed 3 at track. Won one and placed one on slow tracks and barrier two suits. This is a step down in class than last few runs and could go very close. Has an ok first up record also.
Happy to look past Prevailing as he doesn’t have a great first up record and is better over longer distances.
FreeReturn comes into this with a win and two places on heavy, a great win place record at distance but only a place from one start at track. Barrier one seems to be a disadvantage here and Newitt off the horse is also a downside. Should run well but may not find enough.
Bliss Street is one to watch here. Well weighted and runs well first up.
By The Way seems to be a horse suited more by 1400m than this distance but should run well.
Finally, Instrinction has some form lines also and has won at track before. Newitt given ride on this over Freereturn is of interest. Query if horse can run on wet.
Confidence 70%
Launay ran a very strong race and looked the winner at the 300m but Freereturn found enough in the final 200m to kick away. We were very keen on Moment of Change until it was scratched from this race. Not much to take away from this race apart from the fact that the first two are far ahead of the rest who ran.
Caulfield Race 6
This will be an incredibly hard race to make money out of. Don’t go too big here.
Ignore Fiumicino who never runs well first up and doesn’t run well over 1400 either.
Heart of Dreams from five starts has never won on a slow or heavy track although has placed three times. He is more suited to longer distances than the 1400m but has won previously. 1 win from 8 first up, happy to pass him up.
LuckyGray has been the form horse of Western Australia recently with some very easy wins. Comes over here with 10 wins from 13 starts but no wet track form. Will be there at the end.
Rekindled Interest ran 3 times on slow/heavy and never ran a place. 3 starts at track for 0 places and 1 place 0 wins from 3 at distance. Seems to be looking for longer and dryer.
Seville is an interesting runner. This seems to be a prep run for longer distances but could surprise with a quality run. Don’t simply dismiss.
Ready to Rip has got the chocolates the last two runs and you would expect the Heavy wouldn’t be an issue. What may be the issue is the step up to 1400m on a Heavy track. I really do question how he will run considering 0 wins 2 places from 5 starts over the distance.
Second Effort loves a wet track and was undefeated until last start where he settled down for a run on the straight and lost a plate. Looks quietly suited here.
We really do love Prince Obama but we can’t have him here over an incorrect distance and track that won’t suit.
Guns at Five not well weighted in a race that is too short.
Zamorar seems to be wanting a longer distance than he has been getting recently. Ran on very well on Heavy three runs back when twisted a plate and ran a different tempo race. Expect them to ride him cold again today and come late.
Confidence 70%
Even though we had Luckygray on top, I feel we had this race rated perfectly. LuckyGray was on top due to value on form. Our second pick was always going to be Second Effort at a juicy $10 who should have been at the Olympics competing for Australia, as he would have won a gold for us! Simply brilliant run from second effort. Zamorar you have to feel for the owners, just keeps finding a lot but one horse keeps finding more than it. LuckyGray ran on well for photo 4th with Ready to Rip 3rd. Another lay in this race was Heart of Dreams who jumped around the $6 mark and was never in the race as expected!
Caulfield Race 7
Yosei was massive last prep almost pinching a Group 1 from More Joyous over 1600m. Don’t discount her here either. First up last prep in harder class was blocked for run and ended only 3L off.
Hi Belle is a horse with a lot of potential but this isn’t her key distance.
Glows was great last start no doubt. It wouldn’t surprise if she went on to win again here but the extra 3kg may be a burden and with no form on slow or heavy, a big question mark. You would want around $8 to back her.
Lucky Penny is undefeated currently with no wet track form. Shouldn’t have a problem with the step down in distance and also shouldn’t be worried by the class of the race winning well the last two starts. Expect her to be there at the end.
Oasis Bloom is a compelte unknown. Beat a horse who loves the heavy in Princess Rock before spelling for the last 9 months. Could come back firing but happy to risk.
Spurcific may have hit the wall this prep. Seems to be harshly treated weight wise here but does enjoy a heavy track.
Booklet dropped down into a distance that she has a fair record at but 0 wins 0 places from 4 at track. Has placed all 5 times on slow runs but seems to be slightly outclassed here.
Avoid Lightning won very well last start but beat Vatican who didn’t run well on the weekend. Behind her was Le Societe. Avoid Lighting will have to work early to get across but there should be a fairly fast pace on and suspect her to get 2 wide at best position. Le Societe will find barrier 14 hard to get positioned well and may be too far back to factor into this.
Bonaria certainly can’t be counted out of this race. Two huge wins recently at 1200 and 1400m on slow and heavy. Price seems overs.
Finally, Lady Melksham can be forgiven for the last up run at FLemington before a spell. She didn’t handle the course and will appreciate back on an easier track. Times are a little hard to rate for this horse but form behind her has held up with Reigning Lass going onto better things and Bonaria obviously producing quality runs as well.
Confidence 70%
Picked the winner here in Lady Melksham who was well treated on the weights, had great form and also had won on heavy form. Was very disappointed not getting on at $7s earlier in the week and had to settle for $5 on the day. Think she jumped at around $3.80 in the end so a big late go for her. Lucky Penny ran well but didn’t seem to handle the ground. Big props for Le Societe and Avoid Lighting, both ran solid races and the same with Glows. Bonaria also came home strong late and should win a lesser race next up.
Caulfield Race 8
A cracker finish to the day and Quaddie.
Streets Away won very well last up for us at $18 at MV and comes into this looking to extend on that win. He is very short though but that can be expected with a 2 win 3 place from 5 on heavy. Has never ran this track but has run well over this distance as we know. Barrier 1 will suit.
Eruptious seems to be suited to longer distances but last prep proved this distance is in his range. Suited by weights and will go close with Newitt stearing. Don’t leave out of your Quaddie!
Galileo Gold was impressive stepping up to 2000m last start but I feel he is hugely exposed here off the 1600m on a Heavy track which he is untested on and a track he is 0 wins 0 places from 2 starts on (failed both times big time this prep). Barrier 9 will mean it will be hard to push over early. Will be there at the finish off this weight but happy to be against at the short price.
Forty Thirty has a great record on a heavy track with 2 wins 4 places. Last time at track won by a massive 4.5L running away off 51kg. Since then has been very solid but simply just outclassed by horses that have gone onto bigger and better things! Will be VERY hard to hold out here and barrier 6 is suitable.
Confidence 80%
We took on Galileo Gold here and it did pay off slightly. Gal did run on strongly for third but our top two in Forty Thirty and Streets Away filled the one two with Streets getting it. Was a brilliant ride by Bossy and the horse just kept finding more and more. Forty Thirty continues to rack up the seconds and we can’t see many other races where the horse will get 51kg. Eruptious was disappointing but still got in for fourth.
If you followed our tips (and included Freereturn the fav in first leg) you would have ended up with the Quaddie paying $426.90 for 100%
Rosehill Race 1
All of the mail in this race has been for the impressive last start winner in Stout Hearted. But what you are missing is that two back, he lost by 2.3L to Kaypers! He does meet Kaypers 2kg better off today but the prices all seem wrong to me and we are very happy to have a go here.
Brave the Way and Madam Nash will also put in good runs.
Confidence 80%
Kaypers ran a solid race but couldn’t find enough after the two our the front went stupid early and changed the race to back markers and finished 3rd. Stout Hearted showed a lot of heart and won at $2.30.
Rosehill Race 2
This is a massive step down for Babel and she somehow comes into this with only 55kg onboard. McEvoy will have to give her a good ride from the back of the field but the price is juicy for this runner who will come late! Value.
Noctunelle will be hard to beat here off 57kg. Gone very close last two starts against horses that would most likely win this race.
Confidence 70%
Babel went out the back and we didn’t expect that. Didn’t find much late. Noctunelle ended up winning at $2.70
Rosehill Race 3
Only a brave man or woman would tip against All Too Hard here. This horse is all quality and didn’t put in a disappointing run last season.
Drifeontein was also impressive last prep but seems to only just get the job done. Expect All Too hard to overpower her late.
Snitzerland ran out of her skin in the Slipper and got a nice prize for it. Won’t be given enough freedom out front to sneak away with this.
Confidence 80%
All Too Hard missed the start and settled a little further back than expected. Drifeontein looked ‘gone’ from winning on the turn and Snitzerland found a great deal to stay on and win easy with those three making the easiest Trifecta you will see in a while. You actually got $2 odds for that boxed!
Rosehill Race 4
Calvo is an interesting runner. Forgive the run two back and then the form is very strong. Ran 1.8L behind Als Gold three back who won very well last saturday. Calvo also won an easier race two weeks back. Looks suited.
Queenian ran on gamely last start. Up 3kg for that run in stronger class.. may be a hard task.
Cosmonaut back to a winable distance. Looks suited.
Confidence 65%
Both horses ran ok races but didn’t produce as expected. Not much to take out of the race.
Rosehill Race 5
There is a big amount of mail around for Hollywell so worth having a small go at.
Queens Elect is the one who sticks out in this race for us off 51kg. Has some nice form lines and returned well this start. Capable of good times.
Confidence 70%
Both horses ran solid races with Hollywell managing 3rd. Sindarin was super in winning and Sables was also impressive for second. Both of these will go on and win future races.
Rosehill Race 6
The one we are after here is Social Rank. Currently $10 if you shop around, this is a steal. Was impressive the whole of last prep and has some super times to his name. Will run to the front and not be passed I expect. with Satin Shoes scratched… back E/W. Very confident.
Confidence 85%
Social Rank was hugely disappointing. First up, simply went too hard early. Will keep backing this horse who will win one in the next three runs for sure. Mrs Onassis with a super run, back again next start.
Rosehill Race 7
Said Com is far too short in such a big field here.
Two stick out for us. The first is Kontiki Park. Loves this distance and will hopefully be taken forward. Can be given any type of run and Ms Waterhouse always has these types going well.
The second is a E/W chance in Levi’s Choice. Got scratched last week but this horse is all value. 54kg is a steal and has some great form behind horses such as Als Gold from last prep.
Confidence 70%
Kontiki Park went BANG! We were correct to take on Said Com who jumped a stupid $1.45. Who on earth was taking that? Kontiki Park had the run of the race and launched and won at $10. Levi’s Choice didn’t produce as much as expected.
Rosehill Race 8
There has been some massive mail around for Urgent Bells in the last and after watching the run we can see why. Was unlucky not to win last start.
The other you can’t count out is Pentasia who also has blistering times and will also go forward. Could be a Schofield double!
Confidence 70%
Suiting a day when horses were able to come from the back, Velrosso put in the run of the day from dead last at the turn and wide to claim the win in this race. Pentasia did a little too much early and it was very hard to win from the front today. Urgent Bells didn’t deliver on what was promised.
Morphetville Race 7
There is a question whether Oregon Spirit will line up in Adelaide or not. If he does then 52kg is a steal and he will be very hard to beat.
Confidence 75%
Hopefully you took the $2.80 offered earlier in the day and not the $2.40 at jump.. good run and won for us. Quality normally does prevail in these types of races.
Doomben Race 2
Rothera is a stupid price. Vet exam explains first up run… very good chance with 4 wins from 8 at distance and 3 from 4 at track.. and 5 from 20 at class. 6 horse race, can’t get trapped far back.. if fit enough will run well at a stupid long price!
Do think Fire Up Fifi is well placed.
Confidence 70%
Rothera didn’t show much in the end but that didn’t matter with Fire Up Fifi off nearly no weight on her back winning at $2.20 for us.
Doomben Race 5
Warrior Within is still due a win for us after placing the last five starts. Sticking strong again. Weighted well.
Confidence 75%
Jumping off the horse now. Had every chance and went backwards today. Rambling On ran a very sneaky race for 3rd.
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