Caulfield Guineas day is upon us. If you are in Melbourne, get down for a great day of racing starting from the opening race! Tickets are $45 or $25 for concession! Last week was a fairly average week in the scheme of our last month but still rolled on well with two of our four best value bets sneaking in for places at $3.00 and $11.50. We had our biggest win last night at Cranbourne for a very long time with a $70 (Betfair price) winner tipped on top in the last which followed on from a confident $5.20 pick in the previous race to that. Let’s hope we can continue the ripping form that you have come to expect over the past couple of months today. The real questions for me today are: Will More Joyous be able to handle the 60kg on the ground, will Gatewood impress or be another international flop and most importantly, how many lengths will Pierro win by! Good luck, happy punting and remember to gamble responsibly.
Please note: We will be adjusting for scratchings at around 10:15am.
Caulfield Best Bet
Race 4 Buffering ($3.20 on Wednesday tipped up)
Rosehill Best Bet
Race 6 Skyerush
Doomben Best Bet
Race 8 Silver Command
Morphetville Best Bet
Race 7 Sir Fernando
Best Value
Caulfield Race 9 Sheila’s Star
Caulfield Race 1 Dusty Star
Rosehill Race 5 Levi’s Choice
Caulfield Race 8 Bianmick
Best Lays
1. Caulfield Race 1 Speediness
2. Caulfield Race 2 Lankan Rupee
3. Caulfield Race 5 Sabrage
Betting Specials
Betfair is offering Best of 5 (instead of best of 4) this Saturday for Caulfield races. This means win bets will be paid the highest price of the three totes, offical bookmaker’s SP or Betfair SP. Find out more here.
Betstar are offering DOUBLE fixed odds on all Group 1s this Spring including all five of today’s races. If you don’t have an account with Betstar but are going to join up please use the Referral code 23703. (Available from 8am on the day)
VIC TAB has a guaranteed $500k pool for the F4 in the Herbert Power Stakes
If you bet with Centrebet this Spring in Group 1 races, if your horse runs second to the favourite, they will refund your first losing bet (max of $100).
Sportingbet is offering Best Tote Exotics including Quaddies for Melbourne + Sydney meetings.
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters Paradise – http://www.puntersparadise.com.au/form-guide/
Watch previous runs here – http://bigpondvideo.com/Horse_Racing
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means a speculation pick.
Caulfield Race 1
It has been a long time since we have seen such a quality first race of the day. There are two we are quite keen on here but let’s go through the field.
Parthian was average last start at Caulfield and before that did win well at Flemington. Get’s a slow track which may suit. Could run a very game race today.
Smokin’ Joey is a super horse. Back down to Listed company.. in which he won last time out in this class. 2 wins 1 place (5th last start group 1) here and enjoys the 1400m. Will certainly sit further forward today than previous start where raced VERY well against the pattern of the day. Only issue is the slow track.
Speediness was ‘ok’ last start but happy to be against on the run.
Utah Saints needs to improve big time in this class.
Veewap was way too strong last start coming with a big run late. Comes into this weighted well and when you consider 1.8L behind Were Gonna Rock two back, is a huge chance here.
Big money coming for Mr Make Believe this week and on form can run a solid race.
Dusty Star is down 2kg from last start and looks suited here. Galloped on during the race and should be hard to hold out if produces a similar run.
Sea Lord seems to be safely held in this class on the weight.
Mahisara beat home a very game horse in Under The Sun last start up in Sydney. Stronger race here but down 3.5kg is good. Can be in this race certainly.
Confidence 78%
Caulfield Race 2
This certainly isn’t a put in and take out race. There are some very good runners here.
Let’s start with Sizzling. Won all four runs last prep including a win over Kabayan who won impressively on the weekend. Back down to 1200m and a wet track.. suspect from form lines that he will be better suited than many of the others with the wetness in the ground. Barrier 8 is solid and Munce knows how to take this guy around. Super value.
Boban ran some quality times last prep and beat home a good horse in Hoss Amor, Was found out in better class.
Fire Thunderbolt (who the hell named it that) beat home some very handy horses in it’s first prep including Maybe Discreet who won well on the weekend. Solid times and will be in this for sure.
Lankan Rupee was solid last start and will run a solid race again today.
Generalife will be putting in a game late dash but is outclassed.
Finally Snitzerland. It is hard to pot the horse. She just keeps on winning but it would certainly be fair to say this will be her hardest test yet. She hasn’t been tested with super fast times apart from when losing to Pierro (a handy horse). She is no certainty here and is untested on wet ground.
Confidence 70%
Caulfield Race 3
Hoss Amor comes into this race with some very solid form lines. Handles the Slow (2.3L win over 1200m last prep) and should be suited by the weight today after a brave second to Snitzerland last start at MV.
Cavalry Rose seems to have gone backwards since last prep and is looking for an easier race.
Elite Elle has been game the last two starts but seems to be wanting the ground a little more wet. Gets that today and is a genuine threat. Seems to be coming to the end of her prep IMO.
Saturn Rock was a very solid run last start and has genuine claims in this race. Only cocern is ran 2.5L behind Hoss Amor on slow last prep.
Omniscient is a hard horse to place. 1.8L behind Shes a Fox up in Sydney last prep, 3L 3rd behind Members Joy when she bolted in at Flemington. Ignore last start, could go forward anc control the race and sneak a place.
Confidence 75%
Caulfield Race 4
We tipped up Buffering on Wednesday evening as major overs at $3.20 and if you took our early thoughts you got the value. Buffering now into $2.50. A super horse who just keeps on winning. Missed the start last start but fought hard to get to the front and lead all the way. Back to the 1000m (which I feel suits better) and is perfectly suited on weights here. Does enjoy any type of ground so rain doesn’t hurt.
Temple of Boom is a strong horse but can’t see him getting over the line first up (1 win from 7 first up) in this class.
First Command is a horse with a lot of talent. 0.8L behind Were Gonna Rock last prep is strong form lines. Is always there at the end of it’s runs and will be once again. Only query is the wet track.
Pampelonne didn’t beat much last start with Satin Shoes a solid runner but not up to this class. Up 2kg for that run back in WFA and looks held.
Golden Archer is a strong horse but this seems a much harder race than others it has been in. Will need to produce a career best run.
Snitzem could run a very strong race but looks better suited to handicap races.
Lone Rock has put in some ok runs recently but does look outclassed here.
Finally, Malasun at long odds is being talked about due to 51kg. Will need to find 6L even on the weights.
Confidence 90%
Caulfield Race 5
On paper this race looks open and close.
Let’s start with the favourite Ocean Park. SUPER run last start at Caulfield where was very game late and simply just got the job done. Extra 200m will certainly suit. Interestingly, Last and only time running on Slow was 2.3L behind Mosheen in Sydney. Had many excuses that day.
There seems to be only two other competitors here.
The first is Sabrage. A strong performance last start but up 4kg will simply not be good enough.
The other is Sincero. I have very sure that Sincero is a 1400m horse and anything over this is ‘backwards’ for the horse. I also believe that the horse runs best on a Good ground (2L win first up on good).
Confidence 95%
Caulfield Race 6
Probably the most exciting race of the day. There are so many questions to be asked in this race and the number one for me is can More Joyous with the heavy weight stay our the 1600m in what will be a furious pace.
Let’s start with More Joyous. She is absolutely bullet proof. A strong Mare that just keeps running. You can’t fault anything she does. 4 wins 1 place on Slow so the ground won’t be an issue and she has won 7 of 9 at the distance. The 60kg really isn’t a issue for me and I do believe she will be there at the end no problems at all. I believe she sits 4th or 5th in the run which should be fine.
So who is the main threat then? The money has come big time for Solzhenitsyn but I believe this is false money and I will explain why later.
King Mufhasa is the second best horse in this race. He will set a furious pace that More Joyous has never encountered. He should have won first up when the jockey lost the whip against a handy horse called Ocean Park. He backed up over the 1600m in a 1:34.8 time. That is one of the fastest 1600s you will ever see. The main issue for King Mufhasa is that we haven’t seen him on ground worse than dead in his last four runs so it is very hard to exactly place him here. With the short straight, he should be very hard to run down.. much like Rain Affair in his prime.
Glass Harmonium will certainly enjoy being down 1.5kg for that super run last start and up 200m in distance. This does look a little hard for him though.
Yosei’s run last start is the most overrated run i’ve heard in a long time. He was 4L behind them at the end. Sure, he missed the start.. but he positions at the back anyway!!! Happy to be against here.
Steps in Time put in a solid run last start in a solid time.. Off 52kg will run a very strong race but is questionable against these quality horses.
Solzhenitsyn has won four of his last five races and was 2.8L behind Moment of CHange last start. Down 1kg from that run and up 200m. This is a huge step up in class for him. He was almost 3L off winning last start yet has been plunged into. The top two in this field are lengths better horses. Solzhenisyn actually hasn’t beaten any quality horses in the last five runs either and you just can’t take him here. Not to mention two runs on slow for two unplaced runs.
Spirit Song is a favourite of ours but surely this is way too hard a race. It has to be said that she stays on for days off these low weights and could somehow sneak into the F4.
Tokugawa was solid last start winning a very average quality of race. Should go strong but not in this.
So how do we play this race out? There are two strategies you can take. One is to go 1 unit King Mufhasa to win and 4 units to place (he has placed in 8 of last 10 races and at $2.30 is huge value). Or, you can put a 6 unit bet on More Joyous and a 1 unit bet on King Mufahasa. This should give around the same payout for whichever horse wins. We believe it will end up being one of these two horses winning so that will be our play.. but the place for Mufahasa play is good value as we stated.
Confidence 85%
Quaddie leg one: 1, 2, 7
Caulfield Race 7
There isn’t much analysis that we can do into this race and in all honestly, this is like a Black Caviar race (Don’t you dare compare them like The Age did today!!!). You can watch on and enjoy the show Pierro puts on and say thank you for bringing in the second leg of my quaddie. The gun show will be all quality.
Confidence 100%
Quaddie leg two: 1
Caulfield Race 8
This is one of those races where you can get stuck easy. We have two international raiders starting their prep here and on form, they are both quality runners who do go well in the wet.
Let’s start with Gatewood. The form lines of this horse are solid and we can understand why he is a $3.50 favourite. The problem is, do you want to take the shorts with so many chances in this race? The biggest item against the horse is isn’t weight and rating. Gatewood is rated 101 off 56kg while Dance With Her is rated 103 off 55kg. It may sound small but it is significant.
Ironstein is the next one in the market for us to look at. Considering where all the horses came from in the race, Ironstein’s run was SUPER last start. Not sure he is suited to the extra 400m but could run a very strong race when you consider his run was blocked.
Shahwardi is another of the international raiders worth considering. I prefer his price over Gatewood and here is why. He is two years older and is off the same weight. He has ran 13 races over this distance compared to the two of Gatewood and has been tested on a slow track over this distance, plus we know can stay further which the ground will make them do today. Overall, he is a solid choice at the price.
Bianmick was absolutely super winning at $30 last start for us. Unfortunately it was a run that cost Dance With Her an extra 0.5-1kg penalty that would have got her into the Cup. Bianmick comes into this 1.5kg worse off for the run but that doesn’t matter here. Bianmick will be very very hard to hold out here and looks one of the value runners of the race.
Dance With Her was absolutely super last start considering the start. Dunn missed the start and had to go a lot of work early to get to the front and then didn’t take a sit, sat outside and did a lot of work. She either needs to take the lead, control the pace and hug the rail or take a sit today and she should do one of the two. The extra 400m does suit her and she will go close.
I didn’t rate Reuben Percivals run last start and am happy to be against.
Exceptionally will be there at the end. We all know she will be.. the problem in this race for her I believe is that it will be too late. There are too many stayers in this race and from the draw, I think she needs to push forward and slot in at midfield to make a move to have a chance.. It will require an expert ride from that barrier.
Excluded can be forgiven for last start fail and needs to be respected here. Even so, She is exposed over the 2400m on slow ground having never been over the distance. Will still run very well.
Mr O’Ceirin always puts in solid runs but doesn’t seem to have trained on during the last spell. Should run a game race but skipping over.
Finally, I’m Jake should run a very solid race down 4kg from last start solid staying run.
Confidence 65%
Quaddie leg three: 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 8, 9
Caulfield Race 9
I never encourage get out stakes. You should always be looking to win long term and not be up for a day. Either way, this is probably the hardest get out stakes for a long time with some quality horses with big chances.
Gai’s Choice was very poor first up and up 1.5kg and on slow ground we couldn’t back here.
Detours was super first up winning by 1L. Up 3kg for that run but well deserved penalty. Barrier 2 suits another solid run for the horse. Does handle wet ground.
Miss Marx was super winning last start at course and distance in a fast run race after a 1.5L 2nd behind More Joyous. Up 2.5kg for that run but down in class, she looks a stand out. The only issue is if she goes back once again then might not make up enough ground. Is speedmapped to sit second but not sure that will work out from the wide barrier. A big chance.
Anise was a solid run last start but is up 3kg on that ru and never been on wet track. Pass!
Dream Face won solidly for us last start in what was a brillaint ride and win by Nolen. This is a very game horse but we don’t expect her to take up the running today. this may suit her getting a sit as she is up 4kg from that last run. Big issue never having run on slow.
Sheila’s Star is a big danger here on her 1400m times as she will track brilliantly into this race. The biggest issue is having never won in 9 starts over the 1200m. Her best runs by far were last prep winning at Caulfield by 3.3l and 3.8L in weaker company. If trained on will be the one to beat..
Classy Chloe will have to improve here today to hold off the back markers. Will still run another solid race.
Finally, Serene Star was super the last four runs and just keeps winning. This looks much harder but does enjoy a wet track. Can’t count out.
Confidence 75%
Quaddie leg four: 3, 4, 11, 14
Rosehill Race 1
Save your money for better races
Rosehill Race 2
A solid race. Eight Straight could run a very solid race but after recent 3L loss after missing start happy to be against today.
Queen’s Elect back in this class is a big chance.
Finally, Complicate is the one to beat. Super run last start.
Confidence 80%
Rosehill Race 3
Sweet Talkin Woman is an interesting runner. Look to two runs back where 1.3L behind Its a Dundeel after being blocked for a run. Could find best here.
Floor Show is a horse with a lot of scope and upside. Should be very hard to beat today.
Confidence 75%
Rosehill Race 4
This race is an absolute lottery. So many of them have form lines around each other.
I think the price of History No Hurdle is right in this race and will get the run of the race.
Confidence 65%
Rosehill Race 5
On paper this is a super competitive race and the favourite is major unders.
Merlin Mustang proved head and shoulders last time and comes into a weaker race down 0.5kg. Could run very well today.
Under the Sun is in equal class but up 200m more and up 1kg. Looks to be badly weighted here against some of the others and we are happy to take a stand against it.
Levi’s Choice is a horse we have been on a number of it’s previous starts. It has been in Group 2 company the last two runs including a 1.8L 4th. Comes way down in class here today and only up 3.5kg for that run. Will enjoy the ground being wet and go very close. Big value.
Finally, we look at Hard Liquor. Ran 1.2L behind Under The Sun after missing the start and sitting far back (not suited to this). Big issue will be the track.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie leg one: 5, 6, 7, 10
Rosehill Race 6
Skyerush was a super run last start 2.5L behind More Joyous and 2L in front of Colorado Claire. Expect another very bold run today.
Fromelles is hard to place back to this distance first up in Aus. Happy to be against.
Pane in the glass back to a winable class but looks to have gone backwards.
Nocturnelle a big threat here after a huge run last start.
Finally, Forarainyday could run well.
Confidence 85%
Quaddie leg two: 1, 5
Rosehill Race 7
Malavio is the form horse of the race and will be very hard to beat here.
Riomoral should run very well today. Up an extra 50m but the slow track should be suited to him and this should run like a longer track. Down 4kg today also.. just keep finding pluses.
Confidence 65%
Quaddie leg three: 3, 6, 8
Rosehill Race 8
A painful finish to the Quaddie with many chances.
Ideal Position seems well suited here today off 57kg first up. Times are sound and enjoys a wet track.
Aeronautical has gone so close the last two starts and should run another strong race here but up 3.5kg seems unlucky.
Oakfield Commands and Rumour and scandal should run well today off recent form.
Deceiver is an interesting runner. After spelling won by 6L first up in a much easier race.
Agueda off 51kg will be very hard to hold out if has improved on.
Confidence 76%
Quaddie leg four: 2, 4, 5, 6, 12, 16
Doomben Race 1
Save your money for better races. Might for laughs have a Trifecta on the x3 Craigleas!
Doomben Race 2
A race of three with Lady Colours, Gibberer and The Storeman all chances. For some reason, The Storeman is a very short priced favourite. We are very happy to take it on here with the two outsiders.
Doomben Race 3
Dream With Me was very solid first up and down 1.5kg should go very close today.
Doomben Race 4
Ollie Vollie was solid last two runs in decent times. Will be there at the end.
Morning Captain put in a solid run first up but wasn’t good enough and needs to improve 1-2 lengths.
Theft led start to finish last start over the 1000m and ran a super 56.8 time. Down 2.5kg here will run a super race once again and be hard to beat.
Doomben Race 5
Primary Colour was super impressive last start swooping very late and getting up in a very fast run race. Should run on strongly again and go close here.
Doomben Race 6
Purfectress has come back in very fine form after a four month spell. Trained on and ran a very solid time over the 1110 metres first up. Down 1kg and looks suited.
Doomben Race 7
Home to the bride has progressed nicely this prep winning the last two races over the 1600m. Weighted to have another solid ride.
Doomben Race 8
Forgive last start 0.2L loss for Silver Command and back again today. Should get another solid ride and run a much faster race to suit today.
Morphetville Race 5
If I Could has been running some strong races in this class recently but has been screaming out for longer and gets it here today. 1.5L behind Lady of Harrods and 2.8L behind Epaulette seems enough to win this.
Morphetville Race 7
Ignore first up run of Sir Fernando. If returns 80% will win this race with ease.
Please Note:
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