Caulfield Thousand Guinea’s Day is upon us! We have some absolutely cracking fields but there are some clear stand outs in all of the races apart from the main race of the day. The good news is that we are getting some supreme value in the Guinea’s due to the quality of the fields. We have looked at every single runner in every race today including all of those maidens in race 2 which should help you make your own choices. So, good luck for the day and happy punting!
Race 5 Free Wheeling
Race 7 Star of Giselle
Race 8 Boredom
Betstar are once again offering Double Fixed Odds for Group 1s and the Guineas is just that so make sure you take your money there for at least that race. If you don’t have an account with Betstar but are going to join up please use the Referral code 23703. (Available from 8am on the day)
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters Paradise – http://www.puntersparadise.com.au/form-guide/
Watch previous runs here – http://bigpondvideo.com/Horse_Racing
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means a speculation pick.
Caulfield Race 1
Isabella Snowflake was a huge go for us the first run it had on form lines from the Price yard and it certainly didn’t disappoint winning by a massive 3.3L. Up 4kg but should have trained on well in that time off and comes into this race vs lesser opponents. The price is right.
Kolonga was disappointing first up and then can be forgiven for last run when lost a plate. This is still a step up in class and she seems outclassed.
Get Pronto won a much easier race at Mornington on a heavy track. the time was quite promising for the colt who lead from start to finish but will need to improve here.
Bugsy and Rocky Realm both first race ever with no trials so they are the big unknowns. Happy to be against with the class of the toppie.
Sistine Demon won well at the trials and with blinkers on and Williams on board looks to be a good chance here.
Finally, Hyperventilate ran a very slow 1000m to win second up last prep. This is a big up in class but if has trainer don can go well.
Caulfield Race 2
There is a risky race with so many promising first starters. The way to play this race is to snap up the great price we are being given for the toppie who won well for us at Flemington last start in a very solid time, or to look into the breeding of every horse and to pick some value from the race.
Kuroshio has a lot going for it. Well bread out of the Snowden yard and only up 0.5kg for the win when racing greenly and hanging out to win a fastly run 56.9 time over the 1000m
Laduree won a barrier trial by 0.2L. This is the first child of the Dam. O’Brien’s runners at Caulfield over the last 12 months have won 9% and placed 34.3%.
Zapata Falls is the first runner for the dam so no form lines out of this. Ran third in a barrier trial.
Northern Lyric out of the hayes yard has some very poor breeding form lines. Full brother was pretty useless and half-brother also useless. Both not won more than $2,000.
Overreach is one to watch in this race. Out of the Waterhouse yard and won convincingly by 1.3L at Rosehill in a trial. Willaims on board, looks a big danger to the favourite. Waterhouse runners have come down to Caulfield 5 times in past 12 months for 3 seconds but no wins.
Tens All Round won a trial well first up but will need to improve to win this.
Villa Verde won a trial but the form lines around the half-brothers/sisters are not great.
Mezeray Miss trial form only looks fair. Happy to avoid. Breeding doesn’t reveal anything.
Chiringuito form looks poor on the first trial but is related to a handy horse called Oamaru Rose.
La Bella Blue has some very interesting breeding form. Full sister to Lamingtons who is a fairly handy horse and ran ok in the trial. Could be a value runner.
Lady Lakshmi is the big unknown here. Never raced but is half-sister to Celebrity Girl who has won over 200k so far. Weighted nicely.
Scandiva is horse that is bread to win. First start but Rawiller on board (if gives an ok ride) looks the goods. Out of Fastnet Rock is a big bonus. Related to Ibsen who has won 120k, Wilander who has won $350k and Arctic Flight who is one of our MV favourites who has won 120k. 3 runners for all 3 over 100k in prizes. Should run well if has the same in her.
Caulfield Race 3
*Our top pick was scratched here. We were already not very confident but our confidence is completely gone now)*
Underestimation is certainly back in class here today and the trainer has kept putting him into hard races but the runs have all been poor. Will have to improve off the 60kg here.
Dominant is down in class today after another solid run. This is the easiest race he has seen and could find best here.
Pharomac put in a big run last start but previous runs couldn’t win in worse company than this. Happy to be on others.
Liberty Rock was super last prep but couldn’t get within 1.8L in a worse race than this last start. Needs to improve on that run.
Super Cool looks to be unders in this race. Bookies are rating him off his run behind Pronto Pronto last start in what proved to be a very lacking in class race. Will need to improve once again here today and coming from back is always hard in these fields.
Ava’s Delight ran a strong race last start but needs to improve here again today.
Rappers Delight will run another solid race but not good enough here.
Finally, Saint or Sinner not up to this.
Caulfield Race 4
The Wingman is certainly hard to place here. Seems to be coming to the end of his prep. This is certainly a step back in class but suspect he will find a few too good today.
Lord Wimble comes into this race with some strong form. Proved that he can handle any type of ground the last two starts and goes well over the 1600m. Could find his best today.
Mourinho could be hard to run down if they decide to push forward today but would need to regain the form shown last prep.
Sertorius won very well last start at Moonee Valley and has won 3 of last five with 2 seconds in that time. Will go close once again today weighted well.
Cheviot Beach will need to improve to have a big chance here on current form.
Barysh Quest has gone backwards this prep it looks like. Barrier 1 doesn’t suit the horse.
Tribal Rock won very well first up in a much easier easier race. Down here with the Waterhouse Yard. Looks weighted well.
Chamandi comes into this with some strong form lines but like many others, needs to improve here.
Bombalatomba doesn’t have the class this prep.
Coghills Creek is outclassed here.
Niconoise is outclassed.
Caulfield Race 5
Free Wheeling is the value of this race. We put it up on Monday night and the price has come in $1 since then. Huge runs last prep in Group 3 and Group 2 level plus a huge 4L win over Pied a Terre and others over 1400m. Barrier 2 will be the only issue if not given a run to get out. Hard to beat here.
Casacel comes into this race having never won from 12 tries at the class but went very close last prep. Big time off is a negative but 3 wins 1 place first up is a positive from 6 runs. Has won twice at track and placed 4 times. Should go close if comes back rock hard fit.
Flat Chat looks outclassed here.
Onthelookout if trained on could run a very solid race. 4 places from 4 starts at class but bad first up record.
Morant is the big danger to Free Wheeling. Last run was super from dead last but the two runs before that were only average. Weighted well here today.
Overtake looks outclassed but won 3 from 3 in lesser company. Should go strongly.
Petman looks outclassed today and needs to improve 2-3L.
Wind Shear no hope – outclassed.
Specter didn’t show enough last start in a very slowly run 1200m. Should have won easy if was fit.
Sharnee Rose is the forever brides maid. Will get a very strong run out front today and is the only strong horse who will be out there. Back down to 1200m will be strong out front.
Quaddie leg one: 2, 3, 6, 11
Caulfield Race 6
Probably the hardest race of the day for good reasons.
Dear Demi was unlucky her last to starts. Two back should have won when blocked for a run as the race was run super fast and set up for swoopers. Last start it was a very slowly run race and she was given no chance. Today with so many front runners there is a high possibility that the front runners (mainly favourites) will run it super fast.
Longport has a big hope today. A super run two back in a very fast time but last start was given a slower than needed ride. Will be putting on a stack of speed out front and be trying to run them off their feet. Has a good chance.
Lady of Harrods was super the last two runs. Two back beat the very smart Kabayan and then last start took a sit and pounced at the right time on Commanding Jewel in a race run for the front runners. Down 1.5kg but won’t get as easy a run this start. Is 1.5kg better off on Commanding Jewel and 0.5kg better off on Molto Bene also this run.
Maybe Discreet is the model of consistency. Two back in a medium-strong run race won by 2.8L over the 1600m and then last start in a slower than normal run 1600m just held on. Can run well at either speed and will be there at the end.
Members Joy is the hardest horse to place here. Three back won by 2L in a very slowly ran 1100 beating home Agueda for 2L who won on the weekend. Next prep was very poor in a slowly run race sitting midfield and then last start sat pretty much dead last and swooped late. Has had five runs at Caulfield for 0 wins and 1 place. The course is a big issue and it looks like she needs a long straight to wind up.
Mama’s Choice is somehow up in weight here. Is outclassed.
Commanding Jewel is consistent and keeps putting in solid runs but just keeps getting run down. Expect the speed to be too much for her again today.
Molto Bene is an undeserved favourite. Two back lost to Members Joy by 3.8L and last start came too late to run down lady of Harrods. Will need to get a gun run today and is actually 0.5kg worse off today on Lady of Harrods.
Big Chill not classy enough for this.
Love for Ransom won two fairly average races and then last start didn’t run on. Expecting her from barrier 15 to have to come very hard late and there are more classy fillys here.
Stella Lante not classy enough for this.
Balaclava Lady could run ok here today but not classy enough either.
Zydeco was a huge run last start but needs to sit closer to the pace and isn’t classy enough here.
La Zuma not classy enough.
Quaddie leg two: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 9
Caulfield Race 7
Invest has not been given a chance in her last two runs but if they decide to sit closer to the speed may have a chance today. Still, off 59kg, can’t have her here as we want her over longer.
Oasis Bloom winning last start is super form but Spirit Song was a moral beaten due to the positioning in the ride. Should run a solid race again today but this is a step up.
Secret Liison hasn’t come back well enough this prep.
Star of Giselle has the best form coming into this race. The second to Nicholls Court two back (who we backed to beat it) is solid form and that was backed up beating Sharnee Rose last start. Up to 1600m is the only issue but 56kg, should run very strong here.
Sussori has never won second up and was rather poor first up. Should imrpove but barrier 15 puts me off her.
Tai Tai Tess was super poor first up. Happy to be against here.
pretty Pins seems to be looking for longer distances and isn’t up to this class.
The Long Road if produces her best could go well here but on last two runs can’t have. Needs a wetter track.
Sister Norma can be forgiven for last start run where missed start and ran on. Can run a solid race today.
Kasane not classy enough
Model to Nite was strong second up but this is a much harder prospect
Tranquera is a good horse but the times are just poor when she has won.
Barbie Dazzler should run a solid race today but won’t be winning.
Blue Nile does have solid form lines with a good run last start and ran strongly behind Serene Star two back.
Quaddie leg three: 2, 5, 16
Caulfield Race 8
Dark Note comes down in class and most importantly up to a winable distance having won 2 placed 3 from 9 at distance. Has won twice in this class previously and wouldn’t be shcoked if he did win today.
Menados is hard to place here. Down in class but has never won at this distance. Seems on previous form to get the distance and with New York winning on Sunday, the 0.8L win four months ago at Flemington is ok form. The run two back at Caulfield 1L behind Veewap is good form. The big issue is if he can handle the up in weight. Previous runs suggest yes.
Commanding Time keeps running solid races with three wins and then two thirds 1L and 0.5L behind decent horses. Needs to improve again here though.
Testas Double outclassed
Whisper Downs win last start was super. The times of that race were very solid but Whisper Downs is up 4.5kg for that win.
Cry In Awe has put in some solid runs recently and will contest this one but don’t think has the class edge.
Onerahi Bay is outclassed here.
Practiced is a solid horse who keeps running strongly. The form lines are strong and meets Whisper Downs 4kg better off today. Looks absolutely suited here today.
Apres won a very poor race last start but is down 5kg here. Needs to improve but isn’t the worst here.
Nordic Duke can be forgiven for the last run and you should look back to the two previous runs. Beat home History No Hurdle who has continued to progress and before that close second to Prizum who won well last weekend. 55kg is a solid weight and will go very close.
Picture Editor may run strongly but didn’t show much at the valley last start.
Zuma Roc ran a solid race last start. Weighted nicely once again and might get a better ride with Newitt on board. Could go close.
Boredom‘s win two back was a very solid win in a solid time. Need to improve again but on this weight can go close.
Quaddie leg four: 1, 2, 10, 13, 16
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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