Welcome to our Emirates Stakes Day form. We picking 5 from 8 last night at Cranbourne on top and hopefully we can pick at least three today to have us ahead and bring in a Quaddie. We went painfully close earlier in the week to a large payout and are absolutely due. As always, we hope our form matches your own and gives you the confidence to back the horses you like. Good luck and happy punting!
Download our one page PDF Racecard here.
Flemington Race 8 Puissance De Lune
Flemington Race 3 Sertorius
Flemington Race 7 Crafty Irna
Flemington Race 5 Snitzerland
Warwick Farm Race 8 Paramount Pete
Flemington Race 2 Galah
Flemington Race 3 Canonized (to place)
Flemington Race 6 Free Wheeling
Flemington Race 7 Midnight Martini
Flemington Race 8 Tokugawa
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Speedmaps and form from Punters Paradise – http://www.puntersparadise.com.au/form-guide/
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Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means a speculation pick.
Flemington Race 1
Crack A Roadie: Very big win first up at Moonee Valley coming from the back of the field in a fairly slowly run race. Just got there at the end and should be suited by the longer straight today.
Excites Zelady: Won nicely in Adelaide first up in 2YO grade in a fairly run race from midfield being blocked for a run. Should run gamely today.
Shamus Award: Ran on well after jumping awkwardly and not being the most settled horse the whole race. Needs to find a few lengths on that previous run but does look to have ability.
Direct Charge: Improved last start but first up run wasn’t suited by the straight track and happy to be against him here today.
Citations: Nicely breed colt out of the Snowden yard. Ran a little fast first up and died on his run. Could run well today but will be better suited taking a sit.
Wouldnt It Be Nice: Got away poorly first up and did a bit of work to get into position. Boxed on well but didn’t have the class that day. Maybe more suited by this straight track.
Gracious Prospect: First starter out of the Hayes yard with no breeding background. Market your only guide on this one.
Il Cavallo: First starter for Moody stable who won by 4L in a trial. Looks to be a very good horse and could win today. Interesting that Melham is getting the ride on this one and not Bossy.
Mahican: First starter who hasn’t had a trial for Moody stable with Boss booked for the ride. No breeding information to go from but is a More Than Ready colt. If the money comes, should run very well.
Scot Free: First run with Oliver on board. Never like to see a horse with blinkers first up, tells me the horse has issues and is a big chance to play up and hang. No breeding to go off, market only guide.
Diva Dee: Unlucky last start to lose to Crack A Roadie by 0.1L at the valley. Looked good that day and could improve. Big issue is that she is up 0.5kg while Crack A Roadie is down 0.5kg. 1kg turn around is hard to overcome.
Strategy: One of the harder races of the day. Not going to be putting much on this race. 1 Unit Crack A Roadie 0.5 units Il Cavallo
Flemington Race 2
Strike the Stars: Second up run was solid but still 3.5L off. Seems to be suited by longer distances than this (looking for 2000m+) and will struggle to win at the distance. Has the ability to go close.
Flat Chat: Two runs this prep have been very poor. Can’t see him winning on those two runs.
Galah: Very short priced favourite today after not winning in the last two preps, Galah certainly has the ability but will certainly be tested today. Won 1 from 4 at this distance. Did run on nicely last start but will need to improve again today to win. Big question mark.
Morant: He just gets too far back in races. Keeps running on strongly and will be suited b the 1600m on a pace more suiting him than last start. Big chance today.
Why Not: A hard horse to place. 3 months off after coming over from Europe where he won three races in a row in similar distances. Could be the one to beat.
Good Value: Strong win over Kutchinsky last start at Bendigo in stronger class and meets him 2kg worse off today. Never won at the track is a big issue but should run well.
Muirfield: Has never won in this class from 7 attempts but has won 2 of 3 first up. Run last start was fairly average and is up in class today on equal weights. Should improve up in distance but may be looking for longer.
Kutchinsky: Good run first up. Only won 1 from 10 at track and 2 from 20 in class. Also, never won at distance. The first up run does tell us he should run out this distance and be there at the end but will need to improve on previous run.
Studley Park: On previous form no chance today.
I Feel Good: Wasn’t good enough last start in the city. Returned well in the bush first two runs this prep but needs to find an extra leg today.
Strategy: Happy to be against Galah here today. Hasn’t shown enough the last few starts. Morant 1.5 units Each way and 0.75 units Why Not to win.
Flemington Race 3
Turnitup: Ran poorly last start behind Sertorius and was outclassed. On form last prep can go close today but off 59kg will find it hard today. Never missed a place from 7 goes at distance.
Sertorius: Meets Mourinho 2kg better off today after beating him by 2.8L last start. Has won all four races this prep including last start in harder company. Won by moree than 1.3L in all starts. Biggest issue is that he has never won at the 2000m before and never raced at Flemington.
Hoylonny: 0 wins from 3 starts in this class previously. Has been very progressive this prep and won the last four starts against some decent horses up in Sydney. Will be suited by the long straight and get a very nice ride from barrier 3. Handles any ground and is weighted nicely.
Module: Ran on strongly last start in the Horsham Cup and is down 1.5kg today. IS suited by the distance and will run well. The question is if he is good enough, on previous form lines, he normally just finds one too good for him.
Destiny’s Kiss: 3 wins 2 places from 6 at distance but is 0 wins from 2 at class. Is a very good horse with a win over Garud five runs back and close second to Bianmick four back. Blocked for runs last start at Moonee Valley, could go close today.
Keep Cool: Very poor last start and happy to be on others after that run.
Pacino: Doesn’t have the ability anymore to be a city class horse sadly and should be safely held today.
Canonized: Ignore last start and look to previous runs. Has the ability to go close today but has never run the distance before. Weighted nicely.
Henshaw: Outclassed on previous runs.
Strategy: A race of two horses for us. Sertorius has been in fine form and should continue his winning ways. The big danger is Hoylonny. Sertorius 4 units to win and 1 unit Hoylonny as a saver.
Flemington Race 4
Academus: Decided to break it’s maiden first up and did it with ease. Obviously up in class here today but considering how close he went in G2 and G1 behind SIzzling, is one of the big hopes. Suited by the distance and from barrier 10 shouldn’t be an issue getting in.
Dances On Stars: Good run from last behind Famous Seamus last start and has form lines around Academus. Needs to improve.
Limes: Was a very brave run last start at Caulfield running a fairly good pace up front and getting run down in the final 200m. Al Aneed came out last start and didn’t produce and previous form Pronto Pronto hasn’t done anything either. Up 3kg today so happy to look elsewhere.
Boban: Didn’t show enough at Caulfield first up this prep to suggest he can carry the weight and win.
Chosen Moment: Ran well first two starts this prep and will be suited more by the straight track today. Could go very close today.
Haussmann: Very good first up behind Hidden Warrior at Moonee Valley. Has run well at Flemington before. Can win.
Generalife: Great run last start at Caulfield behind Snitzerland and looks nicely weighted today. Can put down big sectionals.
Magnier: Ran a strong race behind Genteel and has form behind Lankan Rupee. Can run well again today but is a question mark at 1400.
Eximius: Has been progressive last two starts but does look to a little outclassed today. Seems more suited to the shorter straights even though won first up at Flemington. Suspect better also over the 1000m.
Essay Raider: A big forgive run last start. Didn’t get away well and went far back. Will be given every chance today at Flemington. Needs to be given a much better ride today but has the times to win.
Timely Truce: Comes into this race with some decent form likes after Sheza Single Girl ran on well this week in a much classier race. Could go close to winning.
Cool God: Not sure how to place him today. Up in class and should run well but suspect needs a lesser grade race.
Gold Medals: Strong win first up this prep but would need to find 5 lengths today.
Lampedusa: Good win first up start to finish. Down 3.5kg and should go from the front. On times has the ability but would like to see another start.
Strategy: One of the hardest races of the day with some fairly classy horses all with chances. The form of Academus looks the best in the race with Essay Raider a big chance if improves from that poor first run in Melbourne. 2 units Academus 1 unit Essay Raider and 0.75 units Haussmann Saver.
Flemington Race 5
Buffering: Failed last time out at Moonee Valley in what ended out being a slowly run 1200m. He didn’t look great in the yard and was always too short. Looks to be over the odds today especially if you forgive that run.
Temple of Boom: Last win was in a Group 1 with 57kg on his back. Has 3 wins from 7 at track but is 1 place from 5 starts at this class. Looks slightly outclassed with this field today on last two runs.
Spirit of Boom: Running well this prep going close all four starts each time with something going wrong. Has never won from 4 goes at this track and we would be surprised to see Spirit win today in this class and on this weight.
Ready to Rip: 1 win from 1 start at track and distance so will handle the straight. Will take a sit which will be suited and push late. Ignore last start when didn’t fire and look to previous runs.
Mental: Was very strong first up this prep taking the short way through on the rails at Moonee Valley. Will take a sit and be pushing in the final 400m to win. Could go close.
Tiger Tees: Won in Group 3 company first up and went close the previous two starts. Needs to find a few more lengths which probably aren’t there on form.
Bel Sprinter: Hard to place him today. Ended up being passed by quite a few last start and previous run failed on the straight. Happy to avoid again.
Fontelina: Big win first up on the straight. Up 4.5kg is a big issue today making him 3.5kg worse off vs Spirit of Boom today who was 0.2L off. Will be progressive today but suspect will be held at the weights.
Howmuchdoyouloveme: Last start was an absolute forgive run. Has the ability to win this race very well but does seem to be harshly weighted in this WFA class at 58.5kg.
Sea Siren: Won 3 of last four starts including races in front of Buffering. Won 5 from 6 at distance. Big question if she will handle the straight but is certainly the one to beat.
Hallowell Belle: Wasn’t the worst last start at Moonee Valley but had her chance. Is a big price considering win two back in very fast time sitting out the front on the straight over the 1200m.
Satin Shoes: Outclassed here today but will put in a strong run.
Lone Rock: Outclassed on previous runs.
Fire Thunderbolt: Not the worst in the race today. Down 3kg and will be running on very well. Hopefully sits closer to the front today. Will be game but suspect can’t win in this class.
Snitzerland: Hard to place in this race. Didn’t seem to handle the Flemington straight as well as you would expect against Stralia four back and then last start went well but didn’t go as fast as you expected. Off 51.5kg, does rate into this race but will need to still improve from last run.
Strategy: Really keen on Snitzerland at the price. Has every chance off the weight. Sea Siren will most likely win but Snitz will be coming hard. 2 Units Sea Siren to win and 0.5 units Sniterzland to win and 2 units to place.
Flemington Race 6
Fat Al: Big win last start off 52kg. Now back to 58kg today and looks much harder to have. Ran a massive 1:34.5 last start so will certainly be there at the end but looks harshly treated by weights.
Happy Trails: Back to 1600m today and down 1kg from the weight that he beat Green Moon on at Moonee Valley over the distance. Will be running on and expect to see him there all the way. A winning chance.
Playing God: Strong horse who hasn’t shown the best form this prep. Will struggle and hasn’t won for over a year.
Solzhenitsyn: Ignore last start, seems to be better with a longer straight and will find it today. Speed maps nicely and down 1kg from last start. Does seem a little harshly treated by weights today up 6kg from two back win in Group 1 but has every chance today. Won 3 from 5 at distance.
Wall Street: Surprisingly good run first up 2.5L behind Fawkner. Can’t win today unless improves a fair bit BUT should be contesting in this race today.
Ambidexter: looked average at best last start behind Silent Achiever. 1kg better off on Fat Al today and can turn the tide. Has the ability but has never won at 1600m from 4 starts which is an issue.
He’s Remarkable: Runs well at this distance and has 1 win from 1 go at Flemington. Form behind Shez Sinsational and King Mufahasa in New Zealand which are solid. Has to improve today but does look cherry ripe to win this.
Secret Admirer: Disappointing to not win last start but showed big improvement. Looks outclassed today but will run well.
Fawkner: Simply brilliant this prep winning all three starts at Flemington. Up to 1600m and has won 4 from 5 at distance and 5 from 7 at track. In career best form and will get a pace to suit. Barrier 3 gives a good speed map also. Won four starts from four on heavy/slow so wet won’t be an issue.
Happy Zero: Outclassed
Rolling Pin: A very poor run last start at Flemington when sitting further back than needed and only running on fairly. Back to the 1600m which is more suitable than 1200m and 2kg better off on Fat Al is a big chance today at odds.
Yosei: Can’t have in this race. Doesn’t rate well and 9 runs at Flemington for 1 place. 1 win from 13 starts at distance.
Pear Tart: Hasn’t shown enough this prep. Needs to improve 3-4 lengths today to have a chance.
Smokin’ Joey: Disappointing loss at Sale last start. Looks nicely weighted today but hasn’t finished within 3.5L this prep at this type of class.
Spirit Song: Poorly weighted last start but much better weighted today. Meets Solzhenitsyn 3.5kg better off today which is a positive. 1 win from 1 at the track so does like Flemington and has never missed a place at this distance. Always rides on well and will be riding well again today.
Free Wheeling: Didn’t appreciate the up in distance with the very heavy pace and was outclassed by Fawkner. Meets 0.5kg better off today but still seems outclassed here today.
Quaddie leg one: 1, 2, 6, 7, 10, 16
Strategy: Hardest race of the day. Rain expected to affect the track, Fawkner looks the obvious pick. Can handle any type of ground and is a deservered favourite at this stage. Happy Trails will be game as ever over a distance that suits. 2 Units Fawkner to win 0.75 units Happy Trails
Flemington Race 7
Silent Achiever: A very game win in front of some very genuine chances in the Emirates Stakes. Form could be franked. Will appreciate the distance increase to 2000m and has won 3 from 4 at distance. Down in grade today and weighted nicely. Should be hard to beat.
Midnight Martini: A very nice win two back at Cranbourne but was outperformed last start at Moonee Valley. On weights, looks harshly treated against the fav today.
Crafty Irna: Big win last start over the 2400m and comes into this race today with a big chance. Will take a sit closer to the front today like last start from barrier 2 and looks weighted nicely. Big chance.
Full Of Spirit: Looks outclassed today but is 1 win from 1 at distance. Does have a late swoop.
Lake Sententia: Big 5L win at Moonee Valley and won three of last four before that in lesser classes. Very progressive horse and weighted nicely today. Could test the favourite.
Manila Jewel: 6 starts for no win at course. Has been going backwards form wise recently and looks outclassed.
Khandallah: Good previous form but can’t win on last starts 5L behind Lake Sententia.
Rock Hit: Ran Poorly last start. Looks outclassed here today.
Quaddie leg two: 1, 3, 4, 7
Strategy: Silent Achiever was brave last start with a wide run at Moonee Valley but could have been beaten by 2-3 others in the race blocked for runs etc. Crafty Irna was equally as brave last start and won a very strong race. Very happy to back here today. Crafty Irna 2 units each way.
Flemington Race 8
Lost In the Moment: never won over this distance but is a very classy horse. Last win was nearly two years ago. Has the ability tow in today.
Shahwardi: Big win last start over the 2400m and suspect he will sit a little further forward today from barrier 5. Never won on slow if that is what we get today. Very strong in the markets.
Moudre: On previous two runs can’t win.
Folding Gear: Put in a super run in the Caulfield Cup and comes into this race today strongly. Has the ability to win but has never placed from 3 starts at track.
Tanby: A nice horse who was lucky to win two back. Will run a solid race again but needs to improve again today.
The Verminator: Big run last start behind Crafty Irna and could improve on that run again today. Could go close.
Ironstein: Disappointing not to win last start. Just keeps putting in solid runs and expect him to figure into this race again.
Lightinthenite: Looks outclassed today. Never run this distance and suspect will be found out at weights.
Vatuvei: Big run and win at Moonee Valley. Looking for this type of distance and will run on strongly again today.
Excluded: Injured during the race which resulted in the horse not running well. Can’t figure out why they have gone back in the race the last two races and hope they decide to sit further forward today. Has the ability to win today. Meets Shahwardi 1.5kg better off today.
Puissance De Lune: Absolutely super win last start at Bendigo over the 2400m in a course best time. Weighted equally today and is the one to beat. Will be hard for any of these to pass.
Dare to Dream: Slowly away and disappointed for run behind Kelinni who ran 4th in the Melbourne Cup seems like decent form lines. Can go close today.
Streaky Fella: Outclassed today but does go well at these distances.
Miss With Attitude: Outclassed.
Quaddie leg three: 2, 9, 10, 11, 12
Strategy: Take Puissance De Lune out of the race and there are four to five big chances. Absolutely super run in record time last start and if produces close to that run simply just wins. 5 units to win Puissance De Lune.
Flemington Race 9
Launay: Ran ok last start but doesn’t look fit enough to win today leading all the way off 58kg. Needs to have improved.
Instinction: Big win last start off a fairly hefty pace at track. Form is sound and will continue to run well. Big chance.
Utah Saints: Game last start and will be game again today. Just not good enough here.
Chasse: never won first up but is a very game horse. Just keeps running on and on and on. 57kg seems fair. Seems to be wanting the 2000m trip. Back when up in distance, not today.
Testacana: Best run all prep 2 back. More suited to Caulfield than Flemington and nothing in the weight department helping today. Happy to be against.
Shamardashing: Put in some good runs last start but needs to have improved on today. Never won first up and only once at this distance. Looking for longer.
Tokugawa: Good win three back but ever since has been competing in much harder class. Looks much better suited today and can run well.
Down Under Boy: Has won at this distance before including last win at Course and distance over a year ago. Has won first up but certainly needs to produce a career best run.
Snow Cover: Suited by this distance but off first up run can’t win today. Didn’t show enough at all in much easier grade.
Under The Hat: Took us a while chasing this guy last start but he finally got us a win. Won twice at this distance and twice second up. Has the ability to win today so don’t discount.
Hot Spin: Not good enough this prep to win today but may have been wanting this distance. Most likely is just a throw at the stumps.
Berenger: Goes about his business like a horse should. Never won in class or at Flemington but last start effort looked nice. A very small chance today.
Regalmania: Looks outclassed.
Quaddie leg four: 2, 6, 8, 11
Strategy: Hard to go past Instinction after that last up win and the form lines out of that Moment of Change race have been holding up. Under The Hat if trained on will be hard to beat also. 2.5 Units Instinction 1 unit Under The Hat.
Warwick Farm Race 1
A number of chances in this race but Benedictus on the previous runs looks to be the one to beat. Weighted to win today. Golden Sunshine went big first up at Maiden class. Will go close again.
Warwick Farm Race 2
Cantonese is the one to beat here today and off 56kg after claim. Losing to Hoylonny last start isn’t something to be disappointed with from last start. Kukri will be the one to beat.
Warwick Farm Race 3
Better races to look at.
Warwick Farm Race 4
Ignore last start of Mon Soleil and look to previous runs. Will sit further forward today and be there at the end at a very good price.
Warwick Farm Race 5
Two clear chances for us in this race. The first is Specific Choice. Super fast 1300m time last start beaten by a very good horse in Rebel Dane. Will go close again today. Maluti is the other at a good price with a big chance. Weighted well today from barrier 1. Ran a very strong 1400m last start 0.2L behind Medusas Miss who ran a very good 3rd this week in much harder company at Flemington.
Warwick Farm Race 6
Hard race with a number of chances. Pentasia can go close on previous form. River of Salvation has strong form lines last prep behind the likes of Als Gold and Grey Assignment. The runner to watch the most is Leviosa. Back in class big time second up and down to 55kg after claim. Won 3 placed 4 from 8 in class and won 4 placed 4 from 10 at distance.
Warwick Farm Race 7
Two big chances coming out of the same race in Euphorbia and Rose of Scotland. Rose of Scotland 2kg better off today and should be coming hard at the line.
Warwick Farm Race 8
Crazy prices are available for a runner in this race with a big chance. Paramount Pete ran 0.8L behind Snitsky three runs back and then 0.3L second to Nat King Cu last start on a slowly run race coming from near the back. Can go very close today at massive odds.
SATURDAY SPECIALS FROM BETFAIR’S DANIEL BEVAN
Emirates tip – AMBIDEXTER
In his exclusive Betfair preview, Dominic Beirne notes that his personal best rating in his past two preparations have been fourth up and that his potential rating is enough to win a lower-rated renewal of the Emirates.
Best – PUISSANCE DE LUNE [Flemington R8 No. 11]
Dominic Beirne thinks he’ll cross with The Verminator, be ridden off the pace and “be too strong for them again” after smashing the 2400m track record in the Bendigo Cup last start.
Value – MIDNIGHT MARTINI [Flemington R7 No. 3]
Silent Achiever is well under the odds in the Matriarch and Dominic Beirne has identified Midnight Martini, Crafty Irna and Lake Sententia as the ones to back around her.
Lay – SILENT ACHIEVER [Flemington R7 No. 1]
Dominic Beirne has rated this mare a $2.50 chance describing as “not good value” her current exchange price of $1.80 and recommending the lay “especially if you can do so at even money or less.”
Best backed – GALAH [Flemington R2 No. 3]
He’s a Group Three winner at the track and distance and accounts for two thirds of early money matched on the race and has been $3.70 in to $2.70.
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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