Greetings from sunny Madrid! Today is my last day overseas so we will be back to normal times and tipping next week. I won’t be around for the Saturday races as i’ll be in the air so there won’t be any in-play updates due to changes in ground etc. Last week didn’t go exactly as planned but when you pick up a 60-1 and 16-1 winner with a few other 3-1 4-1 and 2-1 winners, you can’t complain. Our best bets and value were of no use. You might be advised to lay our best bets this week on their form last week!
Have a good day punting and as always, send in your questions/queries or just your joy of backing a winner like one member who due to the 60-1 winner posted up by us, got himself 100% of the NSW quaddie last week pocketing a cool $8k!
Sadly I ran out of time today so no confidence factors. I can’t say there was anything today that made me go WOW that is amazing value or WOW that is a dead set morale at $4-1 type of thing but they are all consistent tips and I wouldn’t be surprised if we get a few long odds ones home again today.
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters Paradise – http://www.puntersparadise.com.au/form-guide/
Watch previous runs here – http://bigpondvideo.com/Horse_Racing
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means a speculation pick.
Flemington Race 1
One of those races that you just hate picking a winner in as it’s not obvious. No clear jockey rides on outsiders and nothing sticking out apart from one.
All About The Coin ran a great first up race in a decent time on dead. Will take a sit near the back of the field and come late again. Should appreciate the longer straight at Flemington and is well weighted 2kg below most the others expected to run well.
Haussman is also a handy horse in this race. If you ignore last start on Slow, could find best here back on a deadish track. Should run well.
Flemington Race 2
A very open race with many a chance.
Let’s start at the top with Manhattan Maid. Did not enjoy the slow ground last start so wipe away that form. Back down to a class she is known for winning in with 3 from 11. Interestingly has tried 1400m and not placed in any of those 3. 57kg after claim is 1kg less than Roses in the Glen. May run well but happy to look elsewhere here.
Roses In The Glen has come back in hot form this prep with a 0.1 and 1.3L 2nd after resuming. Has won 1 and placed 4 times from 6 at this distance. Dosn’t mind any type of ground it seems. 58kg seems about the right weight for it here. Could sneak home.
There are a fair few people around who rate Houston Benefactor as a quality filly. I don’t. This is surely a step down in class but I think the two above it in the weights are better horses going forward on their previous performances. Has ran 9 times in this class and only ever placed twice.
Family Crest is an interesting Filly out of Fastnet Rock. Ran some good times the last two starts in her first two wins including a 60kg 1300 time where she also lost a plate. Could run very well here.
Finally, we look at Grecian Melody. Is in fine form having not finished more than 2L out of it which was in a much harder race than this. Comes back in class and actually goes down 0.5kg. Barrier 10 not a worry as will go back and Hall should give it a quality ride.
Flemington Race 3
There are a few of our favourites from MV races in this race who sadly have very little chance. Too deadly and Tube are both good at the races with a short straight and we can’t see them coming into this one unfortunately.
There are quite a few handy horses here. Perturbo is a horse with great talent but seems to always taken 3-4 runs to come into it’s best. 60kg looks unhelpful here. Happy to look elsewhere.
Rockpecker is a big chance here. Interested in the first up start at 1000 though with 0 wins first up and only ever ran the 1000 twice. If produces the run from two back, will be hard to hold out.
Undeniably is a great first up horse with 2/1 from 4. Ignore the last prep and look to previous prep for quality runs in this class. Will run well.
Broken is a massive chance here. Runs well over the 1000 trip and has placed 3 of 4 races at Flemington. Claiming 3 so down to 51kg so will come home strong. Has won in this class before and we expect a big run.
There was soo much hype behind JohannaPine last start you would have expected her to win by 3-4L. Well she lost as we expected, only just though. She faces a few harder horses here. This will be a hard race but she will be there at the end.
Finally, we look at Johnny Fiasco who finished 0.8L behind Alpha Proxima so 0.7L behind JohannaPine. Claiming 3kg.. is 3.5kg better off against her here.
Flemington Race 4
Let’s start with the most interesting runner in Dangarway. 51kg and barrier 6, means it will go forward as always. Has run well the last two runs. Big step up in grade but isn’t the worst here for sure.
Kallogg is a horse who has kept performing well but just not getting there. Is suited well on weights here and if you look to two back, this is a weaker race and went close then.
Chord has won 3 of 6 over this distance but has never placed in this class. Does like a dead track.
Laspiel isn’t the best horse around but has won 5 of 17 at this distance. Last two performances were fine behind quality horses and will run well. Only problem is the big weight.
Finally, we look at Banca Mo. We put this up as one to watch last start and he ran well after coming up from Tasmania. Has won 2 of 3 from this distance and is suited by barrier 1. Long straight will suit.
Flemington Race 5
A ripper of a race with a number of quality horses with chances. We are going for the value runners of the race.
Zamorar from barrier 5 will be extremely hard to hold out. Last two runs have been a 0.1L win and 0.2L loss but should appreciate a dead track more than Slow. Will be there for sure.
Riziz is certainly one not to underestimate. Won last start over 1600 in this class and ran well 2nd in same class two back. Does have form over this distance and is 3 wins from 3 on dead ground. Could find best here.
Arctic Flight is certainly a horse not to overlook. Runs well in all conditions and the last three runs have been big. Won at Flemington on her only start and looks suited here.
Lady Melksham is certainly the favourite in this race and ran very well over the 1200 in what was a fairly slow 1200m race. Lady Melksham won’t find this one as easy as Arctic Flight and others will run this race at a true speed. Will be within the 1L no doubt about it at the end but question is if she can hold out on a hard pace.
Finally, Szewinska is a horse resuming for Moody. Has some good times and if trained on well could find best.
Flemington Race 6
A very open race. We can’t say we are keen on this race for betting.
Let’s start at the bottom up.
Any Dream Will Do isn’t in the race yet but we expect it to get a start. Excuse last two runs on heavy as it now gets a go at the right type of track. Speedmaps well into the race should sit about 5th in running and get a dream run.
Population ran a very valid 2nd behind Chosen To Fly last start and is down 0.5kg from that run. Likes a Good track and could run well.
Future Solution is a very interesting runner. Ran quite a good race here last start behind Mawingo. Up 3kg is a bit of a disadvantage but could run a sneaky race.
Bereft has been blocked in it’s last 5 runs.. for a run. This horse just continues to not win. I can’t back it here but you just hope it is given an outside run to give it every chance off 54kg. Has won on dead 2 of 6 times.
Gold Sand has progressed well this prep and finally won over 1400 in an ‘ok’ Open race. Barrier 16 will hurt and just not sure if it has enough to win this race. We will see but can’t have it myself.
Chosen To Fly ran it’s best race for a long time last start. The best thing about this horse is that it runs well at flemington with 2 wins from 4 starts. Dead track will suit but barrier 19 will be hard for it to get across.
Saptapadi is a horse that has been backed in from 61 to 31 on Sportsbet and somehow has only ever won 1 race and 95k cash yet was able to run in the Melbourne Cup. Not sure how that works. Has been running ok at longer distances but does have form over this race range. I just can’t back it here even at the long odds. Other’s I know are specing it.
Flemington Race 7
Campeao is the class of this race. Off 58kg after a claim, will enjoy the better ground than the Heavy it ran on last start. Has won 3 of last 4 races with a 3rd behind Zabeelionaire not bad form either considering what she has gone on and won. Will enjoy the track and barrier two. Not sure what tactics they will use but probably will go forward again.
Elldami is a horse that can’t be discounted. It may be looking for longer than the 2000 but if they run it like they did last start near the pace, they have a great chance with it here. Barrier 4 suits and has won in this class before as is hugely down in class after running in GP3s.
Finally, Rock Musician ran a brave 2nd last start. Barrier 11 won’t suit here and has never won on anything apart from heavy ground, although has placed 4 of 5 on dead. Will run well.
Flemington Race 8
If you are down for the day this isn’t the race to get yourself out of a hole.
Crafty Cruiser is an interesting runner. Weighted ok for this race and was good the last two runs at Flemington. Could run well.
Streaky Fella comes into this off 53kg after claims. Look back three starts and was 0.8L behind Almodovar. Then two back 1.5L off the win at Warnabool cup. This is the lowest weight for a long time this horse has had and is running well. Could go close here.
Forgive My Bentley for last start. Nothing that got that far back in the race came on due to the lack of pace in the race. Two back ran on very well late on Dead ground to be within 1L at the line. If reproduces could find best.
Kutchinsky was brave last start. Will be suited here also from barrier 6. Will runa true race.
Hurdy Gurdy Man was unlucky last start but will get a better run here. Has a big chance.
Finally, Finiguerra is 2kg better off this start than Hurdy Gurdy,. Wasn’t suited by the slow track and has never missed a place on dead with 3 wins 2 places. Will run well here and from barrier 7 will be hard to hold out. Expect him to take a sit.
Eagle Farm Race 7
A cracker of a race.
Sea Siren should be the favourite here after just being way too good last week.
Buffering will run a solid race as always.
As long as the horse gets a run, Solzhenitsyn is one to watch. Has massive sectionals and got a good barrier.
Eagle Farm Race 8
This race is going to be a cracker.
Let’s start with our favourite Dance With Her. Down to 53kg and barrier 1, will get an easy perfect run. Will be hard to beat even with the quality of the others here.
Lights of Heaven and Mawingo are the two to beat. I think Mawingo gets the better run due to Lights Of Heaven from barrier 19.
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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